The Current - Fear and hope in the Iranian diaspora as the war continues

Episode Date: March 4, 2026

The internet blackout in Iran continues, making it hard to capture what is happening inside the country. It's also making it hard for Iranians in Canada to reach family there. We'll hear from some Canadian-Iranians across this country, and we’ll also talk to Gregg Carlstrom, the Middle East Correspondent at The Economist about the latest on this war. 

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N-E-T-H-R-I-S dot com. Nethris, much more than just a payroll software. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. We were dealing with the world as it is. So in the context of what's happened, what's been begun, we support the efforts to end the Iranian nuclear program and its decades-long process,

regime's decade-long process of state-sponsored terrorism. But we remind that international law binds, it binds particularly with respect to civilians, civilian infrastructure, and it binds all parties, should bind all parties. We call for a de-escalation. We're prepared to assist in them. Yesterday in Australia, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, took questions from reporters for the first time since the escalation of war in the Middle East and for the first time since making his statement over the weekend that Canada supports the United States in preventing the Islamic

Republic of Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Yesterday, the Prime Minister added some nuance, saying his position was taken in his words with regret because the current conflict is another example of the failure of the international order and the Canadian support is not, as he says, a blank check. On the ground, this conflict is moving quickly with Israel targeting police forces and the paramilitary in Iran. The internet blackout in Iran continues making it hard to capture what's actually happening inside the country. It's also making it hard for Iranians in Canada to reach family there. We will hear from some Iranian Canadians in a moment. But first, Greg Carlstrom is the Middle East correspondent for the economist.

He is Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Greg, hello. Good morning. Thanks for having me. This is a rapidly changing story. What is the latest from your vantage point? Well, it's in some ways more of the same on day five of the war we've seen continued American and Israeli strikes in Iran. The Americans are saying they've bombed more than 2,000 targets across the country and successive waves of Israeli strikes aimed at the Iranian leadership. So the defense minister, for example, was killed in the first round of strikes on Saturday. A successor was named.

There are some reports now that his successor may already have been killed as well. So that continues. Drones and missiles continue to rain down on cities in the Gulf, fired by Iran. There are reports today of drone strikes. attempted drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities. The U.S. consulate in Dubai was struck by a drone overnight. And so the war continues in the Gulf as well, which is really bearing the brunt of Iran's retaliation. It's not Israel this time. It's the Gulf states that are on the front lines of this. There has been some reporting, and I mentioned this in the introduction, that Israel has been targeting the Iranian police state.

This is the body that suppressed protests, killed tens of thousands of Iranians earlier. year. And the hope, if you follow that reporting, is that this may spark a popular uprising in Iran. What do we know about that? And I think there's a lot of question about whether that is a viable strategy. It's correct that Israel is striking at headquarters of the siege, which is the paramilitary militia that has often been used by the Iranian regime to quash protests. they're striking at police stations, at domestic intelligence gathering facilities. There clearly is an aim to undermine the repressive capacity of the state. But there's only so much you can do bombing from the air.

At the end of the day, you're still going to have thousands and thousands of members of the security forces that have weapons and presumably are willing to use them on behalf of the regime. And that's something that's very hard to tackle via air power. And so the idea that Iranians are just going to spontaneously rise up in large numbers and take the streets and somehow overthrow a regime that still has largely a monopoly on the use of force on the streets of Iran, it's just it's hard to see how that works in practice. There's also reporting that the CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces to spark an uprising in Iran. Would that answer some of those questions that you have just raised? I think that would raise more questions, and I think even many critics of the Iranian regime, many opposition activists who would like to see this regime gone, are very nervous, if not outright,

opposed to that idea. There's a real fear in Iran. There has been for years now that as the regime becomes more embroiled in conflict with Israel and America, as it suffers from increasing economic and political problems at home, that Iran might break up, that, you know, you might start to see ethnic insurgencies forming in corners of the country. There's a history of that in Iran. And I think for the United States or anyone else to try to foment such an insurgency, I think it would anger a lot of Iranians who at the end of the day are nationalists and don't want to see the country dismembered. So I think it's a very bad idea if that's what the Americans are planning to pursue. You hinted at this on social media yesterday, saying it's not a binary between regime change and regime survival. It's a spectrum. And there are scenarios in which the regime survives, but as a husk. What is that husk?

Well, I think it's a lesson we learned from the wars of the past few years in this region. You can look at Hamas or Hezbollah in Gaza and Lebanon, respectively, which survived but are greatly diminished. You can look at the Assad regime, which made it through a 10-year-plus civil war, but was. so weak that once a credible foe ultimately emerged at the end of 2024, it was swept aside in a matter of days. And I think there's a question about whether that happens in Iran as well. If this goes on for weeks, you can certainly imagine that its ability to project power in the region will be greatly diminished. It's missile arsenal, its drones, its navy, all of these things are coming under very heavy American and Israeli bombardment. Its ability to control the country might also be diminished, whether through continued strikes on its repressive apparatus or through these, I think, somewhat hairbrain schemes to foment insurgencies or arm ethnic minorities.

And then remember the backdrop to this is we came into this because of mass protests two months ago. Iran has been suffering through economic crisis for years. The currency is all but worthless. People are struggling to afford basic goods. So even if the regime survives, if it is not. able to project power and menace its neighbors anymore if it is not able to provide the basic necessities for Iranians because the economic crisis has been so acute. At that point, it's a regime, but in name only, and it's possible to see Iran headed for a scenario of state collapse.

Donald Trump talked about this being an opportunity for the people of Iran to take to the streets and take their country back. How is that complicated by the images that were released from the bombing of an elementary school where apparently 168 children were killed. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights is called for an investigation saying that this could about to a war crime. The UN has been saying that the forces who carried out the attack need to investigate as well. How do those images complicate what you're talking about and the possibility of the people of Iran seeing this as an opportunity to rise up? You know, it's hard to generalize about how people feel in a country of 92 million people, a very diverse one. I mean, I've been speaking past few days messaging with, you know, opposition activists or opposition supporters outside of Iran who are in touch with people inside. You speak to some people and they tell you the mood is really souring, that people might have supported the assassination of the Supreme Leader. They might have supported the aims of this war when it first began. but after days of heavy bombardment with no end in sight, with horrific scenes like the one that you've

described, people might be souring on the war. Then you talk to other people who say, actually, the big fear in Iran is that the war will end too soon. And the regime will be left intact. And then once the war ends, it will turn its guns on its own people. We will see a crackdown, you know, perhaps even more fierce than the one that killed thousands of protesters back in January. So I think there are very mixed emotions in Iran right now, and it's complicated by the fact that no one even really knows at the end of the day what the Americans want to achieve here. What is Donald Trump's ultimate goal? How long is this going to go on? Those are all open questions for all of us.

Right now, the Iran Assembly of Experts says that they are close to choosing a new Supreme Leader. Yesterday, Donald Trump said that many of the people that they had pegged to be possible leaders, were already killed. And he said that whoever ends up in charge, in his words, could be worse than the people that were already killed. What do we know about who may end up leading Iran? I think there are two parallel discussions right now when it comes to leadership. One is who will the assembly of experts, as you say, pick to be the new Supreme Leader. There have been some reports overnight that they are leaning towards Most of the Khamene, the son of the previous Supreme. leader. Those are not confirmed reports, I should say. If he were to be chosen, it would be a sign of

continuity, I think, on the part of the regime. He's someone who was very close to his father. Obviously, was his father's aid for many years. He has good ties with the Revolutionary Guard. He's not popular at all. And even some supporters of the regime, I think, would not like to see power pass from a father to a son. The thinking would be, you know, we overthrew a monarchy in 1979. Are we really replacing it with another one. But I think you would choose him to signal continuity, to signal that Iran is not going to change course. But then there's this other question around leadership and how much power the next Supreme Leader will actually have. Will we see in Iran where power shifts away from the Supreme Leader's office, the clerical establishment, where it shifts more to

the Revolutionary Guard or to other factions inside the regime? And I think there's a real power struggle going on right now involving people like Ali Larajani, who is a long time regime apparatchik, Mohammed Khalibaf, who's the Speaker of Parliament. They are power brokers within the Iranian system. They are not clerics, so they are not candidates to become the Supreme leader. But I think they are trying to amass as much power now for themselves as they can when there's this moment of vacuum in the hope of changing how Iran is governed going forward. We're almost out of time. Let me just end with this is a conference. that is spiraling, you said that in many ways it's Gulf states that are now bearing much of the

brunt of Iran's response. You had this spokesperson for the foreign ministry in Qatar saying all the red lines have already been crossed. What sort of response are you expecting from those Gulf states if the attacks on infrastructure, whether that's civilian or military continue? There's a real debate going on in the Gulf right now about how to respond. And there are some officials unexpectedly, I wouldn't have imagined this a few days ago, pushing for direct involvement. Maybe that starts with allowing American warplanes to use bases in the Gulf to carry out attacks on Iran. And then maybe that extends to using their own militaries to carry out strikes on Iran's missiles, Iran's drones. They could frame that as being active defense. So they're not

necessarily getting involved in trying to topple the regime or anything like that. But they could say we are working to defend ourselves because we have been attacked now thousands of times. And so I think there's a possibility that they will, that they will jump into this war, that they will feel like we've been dragged into it against our will. We didn't want it to start in the first place. But now that we're here, we need to get off the sidelines. It's a lot to wrap your head around. I really appreciate you walking us through what we know at this moment, a moment that keeps changing and changing. Greg, thank you very much. Thanks for having me.

Greg Carlstrom is the Middle East correspondent at The Economist. He was in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. at nethris we are Canada's payroll experts for more than 45 years we have proudly supported local businesses powered by CGI we provide a robust and secure technological infrastructure let our specialists handle your payroll so you can maximize your efficiency and focus on what truly matters try nethris now the first month is free certain conditions apply visit nethris dot com Nethris much more than just a pay Software. Keeping on top of the incredible number of developments unleashed by the U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran can be tough. So if you want to know what's going on but feel overwhelmed by that

prospect, I'm Jamie Poisson and I host the Daily News podcast Frontburner. We're going to be covering this story all week, one story a day, great guests, clear information, lots of context. Follow Frontburner wherever you get your podcasts. As I mentioned, Canada has one of the largest Iranian diaspora communities in the world, the currents Shilofagan sat down with three people at the Persian restaurant Ashland in Richmond Hill, a city north of Toronto. We aren't using their full names because of fears for the safety of their family members in Iran. I'm very sad and I'm fearful because of the attacks on Iran. I think the people there are kind of caught between the brutality of the regime right now.

and the brutality of the aerial attacks that are destroying the country's infrastructure and killing civilians. My name is Sid. I am a Canadian who was born in Iran. I still have my sister, my aunts, my uncles, and my cousins who are back there. I had the chance to speak to one of my aunts. The call was dropped three times, but she was able to call back. They are all very afraid. They don't see this ending well for Iranians in Iran, just because of the continuous bombardment. The state of things right now in Iran, I'm nervous. I am uncertain, not at all sorry that a dictator is dead.

Happy, a dictator is dead. I think he had it coming, but now the future of it has me nervous. My name is Arzu. I am the daughter of two Iranian immigrants who immigrated to Canada in high school. I live there in my middle school years for about five years. I've spoken to extended family over there. They are safe, which is all I can ask for. Mostly conversations are just, are you okay?

They sort of fall in line with where I am. Hopeful for change, they feel a bit of a burden that they've been carrying for the last 47 years has been relieved. I really think it's important to remember that Iranians who are still in Iran ultimately should have a say in what happens to them, that us expats who are living in the comfort of the West, we can't fully understand what they have endured for the last five decades. And at the very end, all the different factions in Iran need to be able to live together

for a peaceful and democratic nation. And this is a very unpopular thing to say, but that includes the current supporters of the regime. I hate the regime, but I have to recognize. that there are people who revere the regime and respect the regime. And at the very end, we all have to be able to live together. I'm Sina Sabukro. I'm singer and songwriter. War is not a good way for achieve freedom.

Can I speak Persian? Iran is a country that's a very darkyghism. Sina says that Iran has... a deep and long history and a very rich culture. You can best know Iranians through poetry, the poetry of poets like Hafez and Saadi, and that's the best way to get to know Iranians. My last wish for everybody here, I guess, for everybody living in the diaspora is to please, please take care of yourselves. This is not a short thing by any means. This is going to be very lengthy, even in just rebuilding.

So just take care of yourselves, honestly. Sina says that Iranians at their heart are a peaceful and fun-loving people. that the current war-mongering that you see is because of a religion that's been imposed on us and that at our heart we believe in the saying that goes back to ancient times which is think well speak well and do well The current also spoke with Iranians in other parts of this country. Here are some voices from Ontario, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan. There's a darkness was in Iran and is already gone.

The daylight is coming. We don't want to see war, but these are evil people. I have an uncle who is there. My mother has several uncles and family members there. We're not able to get a hold of anyone. The phones, whether they're not working or people, obviously, they're living through incredibly treacherous and frightening times. We're not able to know who's alive and what's happening there on the ground.

We really appreciate Trump for what he's doing for our country. All those years, like they're killing our people. They're killing their own people and they're dangerous for the world, not just for Iranian. They're dangerous for the whole world. Imagine if they have the nuclear bomb, what they're going to do. Just before the attack, the day of attack, my mother-in-law, had the doctor appointment. She just like took a fall and she just was hoping to go get a surgery.

But when a tag is started and now she has to shelter in home with the little mobility that she has, we had like under one minute a phone call because internet is shut down. And we just heard as simple as saying like we had a siege base hit at the end of our road and our home shook, but we are alive. I often get asked by my friends. here in Canada, how is it possible that your country is attacked and you're optimistic about that? And I have to mention that the people of Iran have tried many venues to create change. But I get messages from my family and my friends in Iran that we're hostages in our own country. We can't even say anything about a change or, or, or,

improvement in the system, if you have any kind of widespread, even social activity, not even political, you would end up in prison or worse, shot on the street. Those are voices from the Iranian diaspora across Canada. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.ca.