The Current - How should Canada respond to Trump’s takeover threats?

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

Donald Trump is sounding increasingly serious about making Canada a part of the U.S., saying he’d use “economic force” to make this country the 51st state. Matt Galloway talks to former ambassador Jon Allen about how seriously we should take these threats, and how Ottawa should respond. 

Viking. Committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship with thoughtful service and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. Learn more at Viking.com. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current Podcast. Donald Trump is doubling down on his promise to impose substantial tariffs on Canada when he takes office. And while he may have started off joking that Justin Trudeau should be governor of the 51st

state, he is sounding increasingly serious about a takeover. You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like and it would also be much better for national security. Don't forget, we basically protect Canada. But here's the problem with Canada. So many friends up there. I love the Canadian people.

They're great. But we're spending hundreds of billions a year to protect it. We're spending hundreds of billions a year to take care of Canada. We lose in trade deficits. We're losing mass. We don't need their cars. You know, they make 20% of our cars. We don't need that. I'd rather make them in Detroit. Now keep in mind, this was a long press conference during which Donald Trump also mused about annexing Greenland using military force to take the Panama Canal. He's also complaining about the impact of wind turbines on Wales. It all caught the attention of Fox News host Jesse Waters.

Here he is speaking with the Ontario Premier, Doug Ford. You say that Americans don't have a problem with Canadians, and we don't. But it seems like you have a problem with us. Because if I were a citizen of another country and I was a neighbour of the United States, I would consider it a privilege to be taken over by the United States of America. That's what everybody else in the world wants, American citizenship. For some reason, that's repellent to you Canadians. And I find that personally offensive, Premier. John Allen is a senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, former ambassador to Israel and Spain. He was also a

high-ranking diplomat at the Canadian embassy in Washington during the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton years. John, good morning. Good morning, Matt. Do you think it would be an honour and a privilege to be taken over by the United States? Look, Matt, one of your next guests is going to be talking about the importance of truth. And everything that we're hearing from Donald Trump is the exact opposite of that. Yes, there's probably a lot of Canadians that would like American citizenship so that they could work there if they wanted and go back and forth easily, but I can assure you that the vast majority of Canadians do not want

to become Americans and become subject to their health care, their education system, their social security system, and the madness of their politics. Donald Trump says many things. How seriously should we take these threats in particular from him? I mean, initially people thought that this was just trolling. He's winding up the nation, he's poking at Justin Trudeau in a vulnerable time in the prime minister's life. But this, to some people, feels different.

How seriously should we take this? Well, I think we have to separate out the ridiculousness of his threats to take over Canada, to take over Greenland, and to take over the Panama Canal on the one hand, and the terror threats on the other. As for the former, Trump is a bully, he's a narcissist. He won the primaries and he beat a couple of candidates, Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris, by doing just what he's doing now, calling people names, denigrating them, using the media.

And he is a master at using the media constantly, and I'm afraid that we all feed him. And I just wish that this could be tampened down so that he doesn't get the kind of airspace that he does. So on the question of taking over Canada, it's simply ridiculous. And these Churchillian kind of defenses that some of our premiers and others are making, I think, are simply not necessary, and they stoop down to his level. On the question of tariffs, that is a problem. We've seen it before. But I should just

say on that that our officials, the people at our embassy, Kirsten Hillman, our ambassador, our Canada US cabinet committee have been aware of these threats. We've seen them in the last Trump administration. We know which exports that we can put tariffs on. We know which imports that we can put tariffs on. We know which imports, imports that we can put tariffs on

and we know how we can withhold exports in states that desperately need some of our products. And I think we're going to be prepared to try and defend Canada from a trade perspective. Is there a chance that the way that you mentioned Canadian premiers, is there a chance that the way leaders are responding from this country to what Trump is saying

could embolden him in some ways to squeeze Canada harder and try and extract further concessions? Uh, no, I don't think so. Um, I mean, you've got to remember, you know, Trump promised that he was going to build a wall and the Mexicans were going to pay for it. He promised that the war in Ukraine was going to be over in day one. I don't think it's going to happen.

And the Israeli hostages are not going to be out on day one either. He makes these claims, he makes these threats. I think it's important that our premiers meet, as they did virtually yesterday, and they'll meet with the Prime Minister again. I think they they should all agree on on which trade measures they have to defend against and which ones they want to impose themselves. This is important and I think they stand up for Canada, for our sovereignty, but that's really not under threat, but they stand up for our economic wellbeing and that is important and I wouldn't worry

about our premiers saying things if they're defending Canada that will worry Donald Trump. You have some experience in being in the room when Canada was under a lot of pressure from the United States. What was that like? Well, I was at the embassy when Prime Minister Kretschen decided that he wasn't going to join the Americans in Iraq. He probably the best foreign policy decision that he ever made at the time and certainly in retrospect. And we were essentially shut out of meeting with the most senior officials in Washington for about a year. I was also there post 9- with the Americans on a variety of intelligence and security matters. And Canada responded as necessary, keeping within its own obligations but its own responsibilities

as well. It's not easy. They're obviously our most important partner. And you roll with the punches until in the case of Bush 43 and Kretschen, things slowly improved. We helped the Americans in Afghanistan. We helped them to some extent in Iraq and the situation eventually normalized. I mean, these weren't punches and you weren't there, but there's the legendary story of Lyndon Johnson.

Would he pick up Lester Pearson by the lapels? Yeah, he, uh, Johnson wasn't too happy about a speech that Lester Pearson gave, uh, Johnson wasn't too happy about a speech that Lester Pearson gave, uh, criticizing American policy in Vietnam. And so it's not only Republicans that we, we can have trouble with. Uh, Johnson was legendary and, uh, he was a lot bigger than Lester Pearson. And used salty language too. Um, what, what is it that, that is the best course of action for Canadian leaders

and diplomats now? I mean, based on, on your own experience, but what we're seeing, because there are people and it's the tariffs and we're going to talk more about this in a moment, but also whether you buy it or not, Donald Trump saying that he's going to use economic force against this country can rattle people.

So how should, how should leaders and diplomats respond? Well, um, as I said, Canada has been aware of these threats and has been exposed to these threats for years. That's why we have a NAFTA 2.0. That's why we negotiated trade agreements over autos in years before. The embassy and officials know the key products in key states of key lawmakers. We've studied this, we have lists, and if Donald Trump wants to impose tariffs on us, we can impose counter tariffs on them.

But you don't see this as a different moment. I mean, when he flies his son to Greenland, when he says that he wants to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, it just feels to some people that the big changes to the international order are on the docket here. order are on the docket here. Donald Trump's got about two years before he becomes a lame duck and when he can't run again, unless he tries to change the American constitution. He's got a lot of things on his plate, you know, from exporting 11 million refugees and building detention centers and dealing with what is

going to become serious inflation in his country if he poses tariffs on China and Canada and Europe. I think this is all just Donald Trump talk and the fact that his son flies to Greenland, I think is ridiculous. Greenlanders may want to become independent, but they certainly don't want to become Americans and neither do Canadians. So I think we just ignore the hype. We, we, we, and I wish this interview and other interviews are all a part of it. We can't stop talking about Donald. And I think if, if we could only just ignore him to some extent, this kind of crazy language would go away and he's going to have to start dealing with America and running America, et cetera. John, good to talk to you. Guilty as charged, I suppose, in furthering this conversation, but it is important and it's top of mind for so many people. Thank you very much.

It is. Thanks so much, Matt. John Allen, former Canadian diplomat. He held senior roles in the embassy in Washington during the George W. Bush and Bill Clinton years, later served as ambassador to Israel and Spain. He's now senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. Viking. Committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship with thoughtful service and cultural

enrichment on board and on shore. Learn more at Viking.com. Essential reading for everyone, Health for All is the instant number one national bestseller by Jane Philpott, former federal minister of health and Ontario lead on primary care. With over six million Canadians lacking basic health care, Philpott offers a prescription for a healthier society focusing on hope, belonging and purpose. Available in hardcover and audiobook, narrated by Jane Philpott. Talk of merging Canada and the United States, as we've heard, comes while these tariff

threats are still very hot and the trade relationship between these two nations is rather uncertain. Carlo Dade is director of trade and trade infrastructure at the Canada West Foundation. He's also part of the expert group on Canada-US relations. It's a group of foreign affairs and business leaders. Carlo, good morning to you. Morning, Matt. When Donald Trump threatens to use economic force against this country, what do you think that means?

Well, as John, the former, the ambassador just said, it's part of negotiating rhetoric with that Donald Trump employees. Look, I grew up in the Northeast US. Donald Trump is a New York real estate shark. For those of us that grew up in the era in which he came up, we're familiar with this language, these negotiating techniques. Nothing's off the table when you're negotiating, and we're seeing this with Donald Trump. It's also not too distant from what we've dealt with in the past with the US.

The rhetoric is a bit more intense, but it was just as colorful when John Connolly was Secretary of the Treasury and the US imposed a 10% import surcharge on all countries including Canada. The language was similarly belligerent and belittling of Canada under the Nixon administration. How do you understand what Trump and his incoming administration are trying to achieve with threats like this? And it's not just the threats are going to take over your country, it's again that idea of economic force and the tariffs that many people believe it's not an if, but a when that they are imposed. Well, certainly that's a great question and certainly on the

tariffs it's pretty much consensus that the question is not if, but when and also for how long the last, which is a different issue. But you have to do the work. You can't simply take the tweet and run off and take that as a policy proposal, or as embedded or even associated with reality. Is there a chain that links it back to serious policy work done by the America First community, the think tanks, the America

First Policy Institute, American Compass, and others. Is it regulatory, legislatively, capacity-wise feasible or possible in the U.S.? So you can't take the tweets at face value. You have to do the work to analyze what of what he said is tied to the reality of the administration, the reality of the exercise of power in the US and tied to policy work that's been done that will give Congress and others cover to follow him. So when he says about things that are made in this country, we don't need them. We'll just make the cars in the United States or what have you. Do you think he's freelancing there?

Exactly. Exactly. His association with facts is loose. Look, Donald Trump isn't the type of person who's going to stay up at night reading a policy briefing or a backgrounder. He's worse than Ronald Reagan. At least Reagan, you could show him a video and you could embed the facts in the video. With Trump, you're not even getting that. The expert group put out a statement in part, it says the trade wars are a bit like nuclear conflicts, everyone loses.

If these tariffs are coming, what impact would they have in this country? It depends on the nature of the tariffs, and it depends on their duration. We have certainty about neither. The economic modeling that's been done takes a worst-case scenario, tariffs that last longer than a year and that cover all sectors. Back in 1971 under the Nixon Shots, we had 10% tariffs but oil and gas, energy and all those were excluded.

That was for technical reasons, regulatory reasons on the US side. It wasn't a strategic decision. It was a legislative regulatory necessity. But with the current proposed tariffs, we still don't know what the rate will be, and we don't know if certain sectors will be eliminated. There was a report in the Washington Post that it would be limited to certain sectors, and then Trump immediately pushed back. We also don't know how long the tariffs will last. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs lasted five years. Incredible damage. But the Nixon shock tariffs lasted barely five months, four and a half months. So there's a lot of uncertainty before we can tell what sort of damage we're gonna have.

The CBC is reporting that Canada is considering retaliatory tariffs on everything from steel, and toilets, flowers, Florida orange juice. What should we be thinking about in this country if, as you say, it's not if but when these tariffs are imposed? Well, the first question gets back to exactly what the tariffs are, what sector are they, are they economy-wide, how long?

If it's the four-month period of the Nixon shock tariffs, then we need to look at things like compensation to help companies survive. It becomes a game of attrition with the Americans. Who can suffer economic damage the longest before caving in? So that sort of thinking needs to be done and should have been done frigging over the summer when we and others were yelling for the government to start running the scenarios, figuring out how we were going to do compensation, what sort of measures we were going to take. But look, if you're going to compensate, the one thing we have is potash. The US farming community depends overwhelmingly on Canada for potash fertilizers.

So do you look at withholding that? I mean, Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario, has talked about withholding power supplies to the United States as well. Is it, to a lot of people, those seem like extreme steps, but is that what you have to consider? Well, maybe just remind the Americans. Again, this is a game, can be a game of subtlety as well. Just point out that look, you know, spring planning season's just around the corner

and you all rely on us for it. You're not gonna be able to do spring planting if you don't get potash. We're not saying we're going to impose a tariff, we're just pointing out that you're exposed as well. So Donald Trump's, we don't need you. Maybe go talk to a farmer in Iowa and ask him. I have to let you go, but just,

do you think this changes the relationship, the material nature of the relationship between Canada and the United States, the closest trading partners, closest allies, what have you? Is that undermined in these comments, not even the action, but in the comments by Donald Trump, do you think? In Washington, DC, yes.

At the state and provincial level, no. We are deeply, deeply integrated with the Americans at the state and provincial level, no. We are deeply, deeply integrated with the Americans at the state and provincial level. We're members of US state legislative working groups. Premiers have a standing invitation to go to the national governance meeting, Western governors, Midwest governors meeting.

I think at the level, when you leave Washington and Ottawa, there is a deeper level of integration. And again, as with the Nixon shot, times change, situations change, and we always seem to get back to a meme with the Americans. It's not the meme we want, but at least it's a meme where we can survive and live with. There may be some potholes on the road

before that destination is reached. Very bad potholes, Ontario-sized potholes. Ontario-sized potholes. Carlo, we'll leave it there, thank you. Carlo Dade is director of trade and trade infrastructure at the Canada West Foundation. He was in Calgary. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.