The Current - How wars around the world changed in 2024

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

From recent drone and missile attacks in Ukraine, to tens of thousands dead in Gaza, and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria — it’s been a turbulent year in wars worldwide. Journalists covering the Middle East and Ukraine join guest host Susan Ormiston to reflect on ongoing conflicts worldwide. 

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news, so I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with Season 3 of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy.

On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current Podcast. In cities across Ukraine, people woke up on Christmas Day to the sounds of drone and missile attacks. Some had spent Christmas Eve in underground shelters. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, called the attacks inhumane. Russia's military mainly targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure, just as the winter days are getting colder. It happened so early in the morning. My sister lives in Kharkiv and said it was very loud.

I feel sorry for the city. I don't have a festive mood, but we hope for victory. We will celebrate holidays later, next year, I hope so. Tim Mack is a journalist and founder and editor of The Counteroffensive, a news publication covering the war in Ukraine. He's in Kyiv. Hello. Hey there. How were you and others in Kyiv affected by this latest attack? Well, you know, it's interesting that it happened on Christmas Day.

This is actually only the second Christmas Day that was celebrated on December 25th. second Christmas Day that was celebrated on December 25th. Interestingly enough, Ukraine has tried to disassociate itself with a lot of Russian phenomenon, one of which is Orthodox Christmas, which is usually celebrated on January 6th or 7th, the 7th being what it would have been this year. So in many ways, this is a remarkable occasion in which Russia has kind of hit back on a day that is meant to have Ukraine distinguish itself from the Russian world or Russian influence. But in many ways, this day is like so many others that have happened both before and after, which is that we've marked by Russian attacks. What does it feel like in Kyiv where you are right now? Well, I'll tell you that at this very moment, I am in a apartment without power and heat running because this is the reality of what it is like to live in Ukraine this particular winter.

it is like to live in Ukraine in this particular winter. Russia has targeted energy infrastructure for much of the last year. And what that has meant is fewer hours of power, fewer hours of heating, and the kind of communal suffering for millions of people all across this country as a result of these targeted attacks, which some could argue are a war crime that are meant to collectively punish the civilian population of Ukraine. What do you think that this latest attack and of course, many others preceding it, what does it mean as we are coming up incredibly to the three-year mark in this war? Well, you know, when I talk to folks who are here in Ukraine, whether it's, you know, my colleagues or soldiers on the front lines, there's this sense of fatigue is almost too weak of a word. It's exhaustion down to the bones, down to the bone marrow, down to red blood cells. It's just there are some soldiers who have been fighting now, not since the fullscale invasion began in 2022, but since the original war started in 2014.

And what we're talking about here is a decade, more than a decade, of war in which Ukraine has been trying to assert its sovereignty and its right to exist against a much larger, much better resourced opponent. And so it's been a real struggle. And everywhere I turn, everyone is looking absolutely obliterated by the events. I just got back from visiting a frontline stabilization point, a place where doctors try to stabilize wounded soldiers before evacuating them further away from the front lines. And the dark rings that I saw under the eyes of those surgeons and those people who are working day and night to save lives, I can't say I've ever seen that level of

exhaustion before. Tim, it's hard to assess, but what would you say is the momentum now? Which way is the momentum going? You know, Russia right now is making a tremendous amount of progress on the front lines. And, you know, an accurate assessment of the battlefield shows that they're probably making more progress in eastern Ukraine now than any other other time since the very very beginning of the full-scale invasion where they tried to surround and capture kiev so they're making progress but they're making progress at the cost of thousands and thousands of soldiers lives on a near daily basis they're they're really just grinding through their own people in order to take meters or kilometers of territory. And so they have the kind of tactical momentum.

But interestingly enough, I mean, authoritarian societies and authoritarian governments are brittle structures. We saw that with the sudden collapse of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, that these societies, they don't have any sort of release valves. And so what happens is, even though there's increasing pressure within the society to speak out, to do something, or to push back against the government, you don't really hear about it until there's this sudden breakage. Russia is facing many, many kind of strategic or broader view challenges as we go into the new year, not least of which is their financial and economic situation. We're also hearing from the Russian president about a new hypersonic missile, the Ereshnik.

He used it last month. He's threatening to use it again. Remind us, what is this Ereshnik? Well, the Ereshnik is a ballistic missile that is nuclear capable, although there was no, thankfully, and there was no nuclear warhead attached to it. What Russia wants to do by firing something like this is to say, look, we can launch a nuclear weapon if we want to. We're merely holding back. And this is a warning to other countries who might be interested in supporting Ukraine that you ought not to unless you want to invite nuclear war. Whether that is a credible threat is dubious, but that is certainly the message that Putin wants to send.

I mean, he's challenging the U.S., he says, to a missile duel as an experiment. You mentioned the threat. How is it being perceived by the average Ukrainian? I don't think that they gave give it a lot of attention. Whether the destruction comes via drones or missiles or bombs, all of which are used on Ukraine on a daily basis, I don't think it changes their view of their desire to resist Russian occupation, push back against the invaders and assert their country's sovereignty against another country seeking to seize it from them through force and violence. We're coming up, of course, to the new new old U.S. presidency. Donald Trump weeks away from assuming the presidency again. He signaled a drop in military support for Ukraine and talked about a peace deal that could involve Ukraine giving up territory.

How much of that is a concern for Zelensky and Ukrainians? They've resisted it before. Well, it's obvious that it is and should be a concern for the Zelensky administration. But interestingly enough, you know, the Ukrainians that I've spoken to seem to be taking this with a lot more equanimity than the Canadians and Americans who are supportive of Ukraine that I speak to. And the Ukrainians kind of figure that they can deal with a transactional American president, that they can give things to a president who demands something in return for military aid or support. And, you know, the folks who are pro-Ukraine in Canada and the United States, they want to see American foreign policy guided by values, not trades. But Ukraine

seems poised to deal with either. And it has been preparing, you know, a set of things that they would, you know, want to provide in exchange for continued American support. Tim, we've just got half a minute left. It's a very difficult question to ask, but what do you see? What do you forecast for 2025 for Ukraine? Well, I think you put your finger on the right question, which is what will the United States policy be towards Ukraine? It seems like, although neither Ukraine nor Russia seem urgently interested in negotiations, it's a major American foreign policy goal. And if Trump really makes it a priority, what we'll probably see is at least talking about talking

in the first quarter of 2025 with a push towards real negotiations and conversations someplace mid-year. Whether this leads to a durable and just peace, that's the big question. Donald Trump seems more interested in a deal of any kind than a good deal for Ukraine. And that's where I'll be looking. I think most Ukrainians will be looking in the new year. Tim, stay warm. Thank you. Thanks so much. Tim Mack is a journalist and founder and editor of The Counteroffensive, a news publication covering the war in Ukraine. In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons,

but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with season three of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. It has also been a very turbulent year across the Middle East. Fighting between Israel and Hamas passed a one-year mark in October.

More than 45,000 people are estimated to have been killed in the conflict, a majority of whom are in Gaza. The war also spread into Lebanon. And meanwhile, in Syria, thousands have been celebrating the end of the regime of Bashar al-Assad in a 13-year-long civil war. Joshua Keating is a world senior correspondent at Vox covering foreign policy and international conflicts. Good morning, Joshua. Good morning. Thanks for having me. You know, we were hearing prior to the holiday break potential ceasefire. It was coming. And yet now we're hearing that Hamas and Israel are blaming each other for a failure to conclude

talks. How do you assess? Are we close to a ceasefire? talks. How do you assess? Are we close to a ceasefire? Well, this is a pattern we've seen throughout the conflict where talks tend to get pretty close to the finish line. And I think you have to take all these reports of just how close they are with a grain of salt. A lot of times, the two parties are negotiating through the media. So they put out conditions and say the other side is close to agree to them to sort of test the public reaction. But yeah, I mean, there's a fundamental impasse, which is that Hamas is looking to end the war and have all Israeli troops removed from the enclave, whereas Israel wants Hamas completely disbanded and out of power and wants to maintain at least some military presence within Gaza. So, so far they haven't found a way to thread that needle.

What do we know now about the remaining Israeli hostages? Well, there are 96 hostages still held in Gaza on paper at least, but only about 62 of those are assumed by Israel to still be alive. So the condition of them, we don't have very much information on it publicly. There's probably more that's known by Israeli authorities that hasn't been made public. But yeah, it's a much smaller number than they started out with. And the longer it takes to reach this impasse, sadly, the more the more danger those hostages are going to be in. Indeed, there has been mounting pressure on Israel, particularly in the last several months

to allow more aid into Gaza. But of course, UNRWA, the UN agency that serves Palestinians, has been banned from the area that the full ban is supposed to be coming into effect in about 30 days. What is the outlook for aid into Gaza? Well, I mean, it's the pressure on Israel is continuing internationally. But I think, you know, from their perspective, they're not things are working out okay for them politically. So they're, you know, as you mentioned in the intro, we've seen, you know, the Hamas leadership has been completely decimated, including the killing of two senior leaders, Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh.

The war in Lebanon, from Israel's perspective, went very well. They saw Hezbollah's senior leader decimated. So despite the international criticism, the protests all over the Middle East and all over the West, the international criminal court warrants issued for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant, these are all real factors. But I think, you know, if you probably ask Israel's senior leadership, they see the wars going fairly well for them. So that indicates their pressure on things like food deliveries are something they'll take into account.

But they may not see as pressing as they might if the strategic outlook didn't look quite so promising for them. You mentioned international pressure ongoing on Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. How much support does he have for this war continuing at this stage? Well, you know, early on there was a lot of criticism of Netanyahu, especially for the security failures that led to the Hamas attacks of October 7th. And, you know, a lot of public pressure to reach a ceasefire deal to end the war. I think that's changed a little bit. I mean, polls show his popularity is increasing.

And I think that's because people have seen the, you know, what this war has done to the senior leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah. And, you know, Netanyahu is more popular now than he was earlier in the war, even as this devastation has grown. Internationally, the picture is quite different. We've seen groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch use the term genocide in describing what Israel has been doing in Gaza. And so that kind of gives in the ICC warrants that I mentioned. So, you know, there's more isolation of Israel, particularly in the West. On the other hand, you know, next month we're going to get a new administration in the U.S.,

which is, you know, Donald Trump's team in the first Trump administration was extremely supportive of Israel's strategic goals, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. And the people that Trump's appointed so far, whether it be, you know, former Governor Mike Huckabee as his ambassador to Israel or the real estate developer Stephen Woodcuff as his Middle East envoy, these are people definitely inclined to give Israel the benefit of the doubt and not even apply the sort of limited pressure that the Biden team has. I'm going to return to that in just one second, but let's turn to Syria. You know,

three weeks since the Bashar al-Assad regime collapsed suddenly, it seemed. What political talks are unfolding right now for the future of Syria? Yeah, so the dominant group in the rebels that took over Syria, ending more than 50 years of rule by the Assad regime, including both Bashar al-Assad and his father, the dominant factor is this group HTS, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which, as some viewers may know, is a formerly you know, Al-Qaeda, formerly Al-Qaeda-affiliated organization, no longer is. Its leader was, until last week, you know, on an FBI most wanted list with a $50 million bounty on his head. But, you know, since they've been taken over, since they've taken over, they've said all the right things about, you know, inclusivity, about avoiding reprisals against former remnants of the regime, about including all ethnic groups in the future of Syria. It's been more of a mixed picture on the ground. we've seen violence between the Alawite sect,

the Shua's, Assad's ethnic group and the areas it controls and the governing authorities. There've been attacks on police and what they say are reprisals against them by security forces linked to the new rulers of Syria. So that's obviously a cause for concern. And then in the northeast of the country, there's still a sizable portion of Syria

controlled by predominantly Kurdish groups who've been working alongside the U.S. in the ongoing fight against ISIS. And there's concern there about fight between these Kurdish groups and Turkish-controlled proxies. And we've already seen violence, which the outgoing Biden administration

is trying to control through diplomacy. But Donald Trump, last time when he was in office, he talked quite a bit about his desire to remove U.S. troops from northeast Syria. So I think another danger point we have to watch for is a sort of all-out conflict between Turkish and Kurdish forces in northern Syria. And as you've signaled, we will be watching for what Trump will do in Syria at this stage. It's

always a dangerous spot when you have a transition of power, as we're seeing in Syria and across the Middle East. Joshua, thank you so much. Thank you. Joshua Keating is a world senior correspondent at Vox. He covers foreign policy and international conflicts. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.