The Current - How will Russia respond to Ukraine attack with U.S. missiles?

Episode Date: November 19, 2024

Ukraine fired long-range, U.S.-made missiles into Russia for the first time, after outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden gave the green light. We look at how Russia might respond, and what Trump’s incoming presidency will mean for the war. 

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news, so I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with Season 3 of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy.

On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. Yesterday marked 1,000 days of war in Ukraine, and while a makeshift memorial in Kiev has grown, talks of peace have not. Over the weekend, U.S. President Joe Biden approved the use of long-range missiles for Ukraine, a move Russian President Vladimir Putin says is escalating the war and directly involving NATO in this conflict. Simon Schuster is a senior correspondent with Time magazine. He also wrote the book The

Showman, looking at the life and leadership of Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. Simon, hello. Good morning. Great to be with you. Glad to have you back on the program. Let's begin with this weaponry. What does Joe Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use these long-range missiles at this point in this conflict tell you about what the outgoing administration is trying to achieve with the war? Well, it's a request that has long been on the table. President Zelensky, he came to the United States almost exactly two months ago in September for the United Nations General Assembly, and he

met with Biden, and this was one of his main requests. He was pushing Biden at the end of his presidential tenure to take the bold decisions that the United States under Biden had not been taken since the beginning of the invasion. One of the main asks was long range strike capabilities to permit these, to permit Ukraine to use these weapons. And now finally, after two more months of deliberations, Biden has granted it. Now, I don't think it will make a decisive change in the nature of the conflict. I don't think it will swing the nature of the conflict in Ukraine's way. But it is a significant change. And it looks like these these strikes will begin against Russian targets soon, if they haven't already. How worried do you think Zelensky is about what Donald Trump will bring to this war? He's very worried, sure.

I mean, they're worried, but they're also trying to prepare in every way possible. They've been trying to develop contacts within Trump's circle to reach out to them contacts within Trump's circle to reach out to them and to really offer things that might look enticing to Trump or a Trump administration to entice them to continue supporting Ukraine. You know, even things like at the end of this war, Ukraine has said that we can, the United States and Ukraine can jointly mine for minerals and things like that. You know, these kinds of things that might appeal to Trump's ideas as a businessman. But, you know, these things don't seem to be working. The rhetoric that we're coming out and the choices that Trump is making in terms of staffing his cabinet really do indicate that he intends to first and foremost try to restore relations or build relations with Vladimir Putin in Russia and not to continue assisting Ukraine the way that the U.S. has been.

What do you make of the fact that in that post-election phone call that Donald Trump had with President Zelensky, Elon Musk jumped on the line as well. Yes. I talked to the Ukrainians after that. They had been preparing very earnestly for that phone call, and the person I talked to said, we were not prepared for Musk on the line. So they don't know what to make of it.

They saw it as an indication that uh this person will uh play a role in in u.s foreign policy under trump it's not clear what that role will be so they're still reading the tea leaves just as we all are uh in in terms of musk but musk's position if he is whispering in trump's ear is not going to be very helpful for the Ukrainians. He has been quite strong in his condemnation of Biden's policy of supporting Ukraine. And he has said very clearly that the war needs to end. The danger of nuclear escalation is too high and so on. This weekend, Zelensky said in his own words that the war will end sooner because of Donald Trump being the next U.S. president. Donald Trump campaigned on a peace deal, said he could settle the war within 24 hours.

What do you think, whether it takes 24 hours or 48 hours or two weeks, what will that deal that Donald Trump has promised look like, do you think? They've given us some sense of it. J.D. Vance has been the most clear. Trump has not been clear at all, apart from saying that he'll fix this very quickly. J.D. Vance has suggested some kind of demilitarized zone that would separate Ukraine and Russia. It would be a fortified border, basically along the line of the current front line. And a large buildup of weapons might be used to deter Russia from invading again, from trying to seize more territory. Now, that does not appeal to the

Ukrainians at all. President Zelensky called that kind of approach too radical. And it would essentially entail de facto that Ukraine would lose those territories for a very long time, the territories that Russia has already occupied. You know, that does not line up at all with what President Zelensky has been promising his own people. That senior Ukrainian official speaking anonymously to the New York Times said the territorial question is extremely important, but it's the second question. The first question is security guarantees. Is there a public and a private – is there distance between what Ukrainian officials are saying publicly and privately? they are conceding that whatever deal Donald Trump may have his hand in creating is going to result in the loss, at least temporarily, of those Russian-occupied territories. Yeah, there is that difference. I think privately, members of the Zelensky administration have been admitting that for some time, but also in Zelensky's own rhetoric, that shift has been quite clear. for some time, but also in Zelensky's own rhetoric, that shift has been quite clear. You know, a year ago or at the start of this year, he was still talking about victory, meaning the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, getting all the land back.

Now he talks about the priority being security guarantees, meaning promises, solid promises from Ukraine's allies that they will step in if Russia tries to invade again. Now, what that means, he wants it to mean NATO membership or something similar, some kind of bilateral or multilateral promises, guarantees of Ukraine's security. That seems to be the priority now. It's also the priority in President Zelensky's public statements. So they have shifted quite significantly on that. What about Vladimir Putin? You wrote about this for Time magazine. Does Putin want to negotiate now? There seems to be very little pressure on him. I mean, what we're seeing so far, despite a phone call that he had recently with President-elect Trump, in which Trump told him, do not escalate, reportedly,

Putin is doing exactly the opposite. He is escalating. I mean, just in the last days, we saw horrific missile strikes against civilian areas in Odessa, in the south, in Sumy, in the north. I mean, just really terrible waves of missile and drone attacks. So Putin does not seem to be simmering down. On the contrary, he's escalating. And the Russian forces in East Ukraine are pushing ahead to try to seize as much territory as they can before Trump is inaugurated. You spent a great deal of time with Vladimir Zelensky. And I wonder, a thousand days into this war, what you think his morale is right now. He still seems strong, very determined, very stubborn. He's very tough-willed.

I do sense when I meet with his team that they are exhausted. They're really tired. his team that they are exhausted. They're really tired, but they do say that the boss has some kind of pretty remarkable stores of energy and resolve that keeps them going, whether they like it or not. So he is still in good form. I think he, in his circle, he's hearing more and more In his circle, he's hearing more and more statements and advice that we need to find a way out of this. We need to find a solution that at least gives the Ukrainian armed forces a break, a pause, a chance to rebuild and restore their capabilities to fight another day. Because at this point, the exhaustion, most importantly, is on the side of the Ukrainian military. And that over the long term is going to, of course, serve Russia's interests. How much support do you think he has at this moment from the Ukrainian population?

One of the things he said today on the anniversary, the 1000th day of this war, is that elections right now would be hurtful to Ukraine. How much support do you think he has right now from the population? It's declined certainly since the beginning of the invasion over the last thousand days. It's dropped roughly from 90 percent support in the beginning to in the neighborhood of 50 percent. So for by the standards of European leaders, 50% is pretty good. I think a lot of European statesmen would be jealous of that number of approval ratings. But it's still declining. And so there is reason for concern, especially if Zelensky is pressured or forced by the circumstances of the war or by Ukrainian

allies to sign a peace deal that Ukrainians see as disadvantageous or somehow capitulating to Russia. I think that could hurt him further. Still, though, it's important to remember that he is by far the most popular politician in Ukraine. So if elections were to be held, I think he has a good chance of winning. The question is if some other political force emerges, perhaps out of the military to challenge him, that could be a serious threat to his continued position in office. I just wonder, finally, I mean, it's now, what, the 19th of November, winter is on the doorstep. You have an exhausted population that has gone through a thousand days of a brutal war.

Whether there will be pressure from Ukrainians on Zelensky to try to figure out a way to end this, to try to figure out a way to figure it, to find some resolution that will preserve Ukrainian dignity, but also allow them to stay warm over the course of another difficult winter? Yeah, that position is growing. And I hear it all the time in private conversations. conversations, it's still fairly rarely brought up among high-profile politicians or in the public discourse. You know, there is this desire to remain strong and project strength. But I think privately, Ukrainians are exhausted and ready for some kind of pause or resolution of the war. I spoke recently to one member of Zelensky's team who says that that is more than half of the population now feel that way, that it's time to stop this. But they are a silent majority, he said, publicly.

And the more vocal representatives of Ukrainian society are still pushing to fight on. Simon, really glad to have you back on the program to talk about this. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you. Take care. Simon Schuster is a senior correspondent with Time Magazine and author of The Showman, Inside the Invasion that Shook the World and Made a Leader of Volodymyr Zelensky. In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons,

but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with season three of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Stefan Volf is a professor

of international security at the University of Birmingham. Stefan, hello to you. Good morning to you. The Russian Defense Ministry says these long-range missiles have already been fired into Russian territory. Why now, do you think, why would Joe Biden give the green lights to Ukraine to use this weaponry now?

Well, I think what you already discussed with your previous guest, I think one of the reasons clearly is that there has been some success now of the Ukrainian lobbying efforts that have been going on for quite some time. And Biden probably also feels a little bit less constrained in what he is doing in the final two months of his presidency. But by the same token, I think this is actually a really important move, which, while it will not be able to change the course of the war, is potentially going to improve the Ukrainians' position in whatever Donald Trump might plan in terms of making a deal between them and the Russians. Because any such

deal would probably freeze the front lines where they are at the time. And given the momentum that Russia has had on the battlefield over the past couple of months, I think it's really important that Ukraine now be put in a position to stabilize the front lines and be in a better negotiating position when it comes to Trump's dealmaking. But in the grand scheme of things, you don't think that this weaponry is going to have a huge impact on the war itself? No, I don't think so. Because, I mean, even now there are questions

in terms of how effective it will be. You already mentioned that apparently the first strike has happened. And depending on which reports you are listening to, it's either been moderately successful or not successful at all. And I think one of the, or two of the major challenges that the Ukrainians face, on the one hand, is how many of these missiles do they actually have? So how many can they commit in each individual attack? And the second is that, of course, Russian air defenses cannot be discounted here. And

even if we don't put much trust in what Russia reports on that, it seems that they have been quite successful in taking out at least some of those missiles that were fired overnight. So there's a real question here in terms of not just how much of a strategic impact that can make, which is probably very limited, but even the tactical impact right now will really depend on how Ukrainians do it and how much they have available to do it with. What do you expect Donald Trump to do when he takes the Oval Office? You have written that a ceasefire could be imposed. And again, you've hinted that one of the reasons why these muscles are important is to kind of hold those front lines where they are. Is that what you expect, is that a ceasefire at the very least would be imposed by the U.S. president? I think that's what Trump will try to do. I mean, there's a lot of speculation, as we have just heard in your previous segment as well, in terms of what Trump and his advisors

actually have in mind. But I do think that he is quite serious that he wants to make a deal. I do think that he is quite serious that he wants to make a deal. And given that he has committed himself to that now, I think it will be tricky for him to walk back from that. Even though if you look at his experience with Kim Jong-un during his first term in the White House, it's also not completely impossible to rule out that at some point he might just throw the toys out of the pram and walk away from a deal. But I do think what he will say to Zelensky and Putin is, come to the table, negotiate a ceasefire, negotiate a settlement or else. And this or else would be cutting off support from Ukraine or massively increasing the support for Ukraine. And I think we also need to look at the permission that Biden has now given to the Ukrainians in this context.

So Trump wouldn't need to have to give permission himself, but he could simply leave Biden's permission in place and he could threaten Putin with a massive delivery of equipment to Ukraine to enable the Ukrainians to strike more and more effectively against Russia. How do you think European leaders are watching this? You had a phone call recently that surprised a lot of people between the German leader Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin. What should we make of that? Well, where do we start? That's a big sigh before you get to the answer, but continue. I mean, living close enough to Europe, I think that that explains the size.

So I think the first thing to say here is that Europeans generally look at quite a high level of trepidation to the incoming Trump presidency, not least because it's just at one level so unpredictable. And at another level, all the predictions are really grim. also feel that they will be completely cut out from any negotiations that Trump will try to facilitate between Zelensky and Putin or where he will put himself at the helm of the negotiation table when they actually meet. So from that perspective, the Europeans are quite at a disadvantage. And on top of that, they will eventually need to pick up whatever Trump creates, because the Americans are not going to provide the kind of major security guarantees that you discussed in your previous segment. But that will have to come from Europe. So the Europeans will want to know what is

actually being negotiated and how they are expected to make sure that whatever deal is done in the end is actually a deal that will stick rather than one that gives Putin an opportunity to rearm, regroup, and then strike again in a year or two years' time. If Europe has to pick up some of that responsibility, not that it's not doing things now, but if the United States, for example, dials down its military support of Ukraine. You wrote that Ukrainian military requirements will need to be aligned with a credible military strategy, not a dreamy victory plan

aimed at regaining control of all Russian occupied territories. Tell me more about that and what that credible military strategy would look like, do you think? Well, I think that has to be a strategy that primarily aims at trying to secure and defend the territories that the Ukrainian government currently controls. So that idea of regaining Crimea and other Russian occupied territories, you say this is dreamy? I think that is, I mean, simply if we are looking at the capabilities that the Ukrainians have at their disposal now, if we look at how effectively Russia has been able to restructure its economy into a massive effort that supports the war of aggression against Ukraine,

I think this is simply not on the cards right now. What it does not mean, however, is that Ukraine needs to accept the loss of these territories forever. Again, it's not to say that the Ukrainians should use a poor seal to regroup, rearm, and then start their war of liberation again. But if you look, for example, at what happened in my own home country, East Germany. It took 40 years, but in the end, we did have a revisiting and a change of the borders as they were established

at the end of the Second World War. So I think the important thing is to make sure that there is development, there is democracy, there is stability, rule of law, economic development in a part of Ukraine that is a sovereign state without accepting Russia's illegal annexations. We talked a bit about this with Simon Schuster. There's a poll done by Gallup suggesting that something like 52% of those in Ukraine who were polled said that Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to

the war as soon as possible. One of the reasons why some people have pushed back on that is because they say that this is not just about Ukraine. This is not just about Ukrainian sovereignty. It's about, we hear this over and over again, it's about democracy on the largest scale and that you stand up to Russia now because if you don't, Putin will be emboldened and Ukraine will just be the beginning, that he will attack others following Ukraine. Do you think that this war will end with an emboldened Russia? And I think that is very much sort of the outcome of this strategy of hesitation, of what some people call self-deterrence on the part of the West. I mean, it's not just that it took forever and a day for Biden to give permission to use attackants against Russia. We still don't have any official confirmation that the UK, France, Germany are willing to extend that sort of new set of rules of engagement to the weaponry that they have given to Ukraine. We have had similar problems with tanks in the past, F-16s.

I mean, you name it. Everything was always too little, too late. But we are where we are right now. So I think we have to draw a line, cut our losses, as it were, but also make it very clear to Putin that this is not the end, that we will continue to support Ukraine, to make sure that whatever territory the government of Ukraine controls will be protected, will be secured, and that we will not accept his aggression and not allow him to have sort of a similar degree of adventurism in other parts of the former Soviet Union. And do you think, we have to let you go, but do you think that will be enough to reassure

those who are neighbors that they won't be next? No, but it's probably the best that we can expect for the moment. I mean, we'll need to see how Trump is going to play his cards and what he will actually be able to achieve. So I'm not necessarily sort of very optimistic that he will really rein in Putin,

but I think he might be able to get a deal done very optimistic that he will really rein in Putin. But I think he might be able to get a deal done that would at least bring peace to Ukraine. It may not be the just peace, the sort of fair settlement that Ukrainians would be entitled to. But comparing that to where the country is at the moment and also where public support for the war effort is, I think we may have to accept that this is the best that can be achieved at the moment.

Stefan, really glad to have your insights. Thank you very much. Thank you. Stefan Wolf is a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham.