The Current - Inside the premiers’ emergency summit on Trump tariffs

Episode Date: November 28, 2024

The prime minister held an emergency meeting with provincial premiers Wednesday, to discuss U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs threat. N.L. Premier Andrew Furey and N.B. Premier Susan Holt tell Matt Galloway what happened at that meeting. 

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news, so I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with Season 3 of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy.

On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. We're going to make sure that we all sing from the same song sheet. We're going to make sure that we do retaliate. That's the only option. That's Ontario Premier Doug Ford before a virtual meeting yesterday between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Canada's premiers on the agenda, how to deal with a problem like Donald Trump's threat to levy 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods. I'm joined now by two people who were at

that meeting. Andrew Fury is the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador. Susan Holt is the Premier of New Brunswick. Good morning to you both. Good morning, Matt. Morning, Susan. Good morning, Matt. Good morning, Andrew. Premier Fury, how would you describe the conversation that happened around this virtual meeting table yesterday with the Prime Minister? Oh, Matt, I would say it was a unified and productive discussion with respect to not only the statements issued by President Trump, but in how we can be unified in a strategy to ensure that the economy of our own provinces and by extension, the Canadian economy is not being punished by these incredibly outrageous statements about tariffs. I think there was a recognition across every jurisdiction that we do need to do a better job on the borders. But these aren't unidirectional issues. These are bidirectional issues, and a strong, safe border is productive and good for Canadians, as it would be for Americans.

So this is something that we ought to do. It's something that we need to do. And certainly there was a unified voice in calling for the federal government to enhance their border services. And I think it was well received, and I think they have a plan and a strategy in place to do just that. You've used that word unified three times. I'm going to come back to it because it seems important. But you also said that these tariffs would be, if they were 25%, crippling and catastrophic for Newfoundland. Why did you use those words in particular?

Absolutely, and I'm not alone. I mean, Susan's trade exports are 92%, I believe, to the United States. But if you look at the industries in Newfoundland and Labrador that are incredibly reliant on exports to the United States, or seafood industry, or oil and gas industry, or lumber industry, or mineral industry, if you look at seafood in particular, if you apply 25% tariff to a pound of crab or a fillet of cod going to the United States, it would put it in certain marketplaces in the United States, make it unattractive for the consumer.

As a result, the upstream impact of that is not just to processors who sell this to the United States, it's to harvesters, to fishermen, it's plant workers, it's truckers. It's the heart and soul of Newfoundland and Labrador. It's our rural communities, and we can't have that. We need to stand up for those people across our province, certainly, and across Canada. Premier Holt, in the face of those numbers, what was your message to the Prime Minister? Well, it was very similar to Andrew's. It's where, you know, we're a team

player. We want to come at this as a team of Canadian premiers and federal leaders that are going to defend our provinces and our national interests. And for us, the economic impact of those tariffs would be massive. And so we need to do everything we can to prevent those tariffs from being put in place. And that means, to what Andrew said, you know, work on the border piece that benefits everyone and more. How much faith do you have in the prime minister to manage this issue with Donald Trump? Well, I think the prime minister is taking this very seriously. And fortunately for us, he's been through this before. So he has the experience of working through a President

Trump's threat of tariffs and putting tariffs in place and then removing them quite quickly. So I have great confidence in the Prime Minister and Minister LeBlanc and the team to get it done. One of your colleagues, Danielle Smith, the Premier of Alberta, said, I don't think we should underestimate the personal animus between these two leaders. In past, Donald Trump called Justin Trudeau a far-left lunatic who had destroyed Canada. She said, Daniel Smith, if he's not the right person, Justin Trudeau, to have at the negotiation table, we need to make sure that the right person is. Do you worry about that personal animus? Certainly, I don't. We are an independent, sovereign country. He is our prime minister. He rightfully occupies the position to negotiate with President Trump. The prime minister

last night on the call said that he had a very friendly and open call with the president. As we've seen in the past, looking down towards our southern neighbors, President Trump often has fractured in extreme relationships, but then has the ability to mend them and has the ability to pivot when it's in his best interest. So statements in the past don't seem to anchor President Trump as much as we would think. Premier Holt. anchor President Trump as much as we would think. Premier Holt? Well, I feel the same way. I think President Trump's current obsession is with a southern border, with China and some other things.

So I don't think it's constructive for Premier Smith to make those statements. I think that we need to support the whole federal team and work together to make sure that we make it clear to President Trump that there's a significant economic impact of these decisions to his country and that we have a strong and secure border here in Canada. And I'm confident that the prime minister can do that. And it's not just the premier of Alberta that's making these statements. The meeting had barely ended before Doug Ford in Ontario released a statement saying that the federal government was, in his words, slow to react and stuck on its back foot when it came to the border. He said that the government has to take a more proactive approach to border security, legal border crossings, the transport of fentanyl across the border.

Andrew Fury, is Doug Ford right? Has the prime minister been slow to react to this issue? Well, I think we all recognize that there is an issue at the border, but I would suggest that it is a bilateral, it's a bi-directional issue at the border. A strong, secure border is good for Canadians and it's good for Americans. Can we do a better job? Yes, absolutely, we can do a better job. But I don't, I think what Premier Ford was suggesting is just that, that we need to have stronger border security for the benefit of both Americans and Canadians. Just to pick up on the previous point, the Prime Minister, we can have our own individual

provincial differences with the Prime Minister. And of course, I have mine, whether it's carbon tax equalization, Northern Cod. But on this front, on this strategic front, I do believe that we need a unified voice because I would think that for President Trump, there would be nothing more appealing than to have a fractured nation in order to exert his will. Isn't that already happening, though? I mean, Doug Ford has talked about, and this is before the meeting, has talked about a separate bilateral trade agreement between Canada and the United States, taking Mexico out of the equation. He's putting himself forward.

There are other concerns that perhaps— No, that's not the premise of what I suggested. What I suggested was a fractured country being a fractured Canada. I have no problems in doing a bilat with the United States that excludes Mexico. I meant from—if you're putting yourself in President Trump's position, strategically it would be quite beneficial if we didn't have a united voice in Canada. Premier Holt, you might be worried about, for example, the energy sector. There might be other premiers worried about other sectors.

There is some suggestion that exemptions could be negotiated for certain industries. Is it really possible? Again, Premier Fury has talked about a united approach. Is it really possible for everyone to speak with one voice here, do you think? Well, it is because I think we all recognize that we have different economic makeups and there's different sectors of importance to each province when it comes to trade with the U.S., but that we can all recognize those for each other. There's also a lot of areas that we have in common. So as long as we are collectively aware of the sectors of importance to our colleagues and that we're all prepared to defend those interests as a shared and aligned group,

then this can work. We can be a strong Canada that is a beautiful makeup of our different provinces and regions, recognizing their local unique economic needs, but also being there to fight for and with each other. Premier Holt, how seriously do you take these threats? Donald Trump as president, and when he hasn't been president, says a number of different things. How seriously do you take a threat of a 25% tariff? Well, if I can quote the prime minister last night, we take this as seriously as a heart attack. This would be exceptionally damaging to the New Brunswick economy and to the Canadian economy. And so we are looking at every possible way that we can

prevent these tariffs from being put in place. What do you do about facts? The amount of fentanyl, for example, seized at the border is a tiny fraction of the total intercepted across the United States. The legal migration issue is very small when it comes to the northern border compared to the Mexico-U.S. border. So I just wonder, in the face of that, how seriously those realities, Premier Fury, play into Canada's strategy and whether facts matter in some ways when you're negotiating with Donald Trump? I do think facts matter. And I think there was a strategic approach last night on the call that it's not just, by the way, the relationship between the president and the prime

minister. We have our own, premiers have their own relationships with governors in the United States. And of course, they largely are aligned north-south. And to communicate to them, to make them realize what these tariffs will mean to their citizens at the tabletop, to families, is incredibly important. You know, it'll be a tariff on transmission lines, it'll be a tariff on pipelines, it'll be a tariff on the gas pumps, there'll be a tariff on restaurants and food. And I'm pretty sure the cost of living is a big issue in Boston. And I'm sure that citizens of Boston, for example, don't want to wake up on January 21st or 22nd with substantially increased electricity bills, substantially increased price at the pumps or price for groceries. So we need to make sure that we're communicating the facts and the truth, whether it be on the migration of illegal migrants or illegal firearms or illegal substances, but also on the facts on the tariffs themselves

as they implicate and apply to individuals and their families and their pocketbooks and their purchasing power, because this will have a direct impact on the cost of living in the United States. In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with season three of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is.

I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Premier Holt, if you look at the border, you share a border with Maine. The Premier of Alberta, Daniel Smith, has said that the incoming U.S. administration has, in her words, valid concerns related to illegal activities on our shared border. Francois Legault in Quebec has said that we need to do more on the border. How seriously should we be looking at the border between Canada and the United States in light of these threats coming from Donald Trump, but also the increased attention on what happens at that border?

Well, I think that we've been looking at our borders more closely for the past number of years because a number of provinces and areas have had increasing issues with both the movement of unwanted goods and unwanted people into our country. And so I think that there's a win-win here. It's in Canada's interest, it's in New Brunswick's interest to strengthen our borders and make sure that we have the best possible systems in place and people who are supported to do that work to protect our provinces. and people who are supported to do that work to protect our provinces. And it sounds like it's a win for the U.S. to know that they have a Canadian partner that takes their borders very seriously. And while we already have a much more secure border than Mexico, with many, many fewer incidents, as you say,

that it's in everyone's best interest that we continue to invest and strengthen the Canadian border with the U.S. and certainly New Brunswick's border with Maine. Just before I let you go, Andrew Fury, what happens now? I mean, in the wake of this meeting, there's talk that perhaps premiers will head down to Washington, D.C. themselves to make the case for Canada and for your own individual economies. What happens in the wake of this meeting? Well, certainly the prime minister committed to having regular touch points

with respect to a Team Canada approach, but I also think the regions and individual premiers will be reaching out to their counterparts across the border. I know that as chair of the Atlantic Premiers and New England Governors Council for this year, I've sent a letter to all the Atlantic Premiers and New England Governors to convene an emergency meeting on this particular issue. But I also have great faith in Premier Ford to have a council federation voice that represents everyone at

the table. And if that means a trip down to Washington, D.C., then surely count me on board. Premier Holt, you're just fresh into this job. What does this tell you about what the next four years are going to be like? Well, 30 days in, Matt, I'm really encouraged by the teamwork that I see with my fellow premiers and Mr. Fury, Andrew, in particular, there's a really close-knit and strongly supportive group of people that are prepared to work together and to fight for our country and for the people in each of our provinces. And so I'm encouraged by what I've seen in terms of the spirit of collaboration, the impressive sort of skills and approach around the table. And I'm confident that our long history of great relations with the U.S.

will continue through this particular bump in the road. Glad to have you both here. We will talk again, perhaps, as we get closer to that bump in the road. Thank you both for being here this morning. Thanks, Matt. Thanks, Matt. Andrew Fury is Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador. Susan Holt is the Premier of New Brunswick. Matthew Holmes is Executive Vice President and Chief of Public Policy for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

Matthew, good morning to you. Morning, Matt. What do you make of what came out of the First Minister's meeting last night? In particular, as we heard from Andrew Fury, a real focus on unity. Well, it's great to hear that. And my view is we can't go into this showing our hand hand and we cannot allow ourselves to go into this fight divided already. What does that mean, showing our hand? Well, it's been concerning to see and hear some of the premiers discussing this publicly lately.

They have obvious interests. They're concerned about the economy. They need to see action. That's all valid. the economy, they need to see action. That's all valid. But when did we decide to throw Mexico under the bus and who thought it was a good idea to show Mexico and the United States that we were willing to do so? That's our third largest trading partner. So I think we need to be a little more tempered and a little careful about this. Your organization put out a statement earlier this week. It said that being America's nice neighbor isn't going to get us anywhere. So what is being a not so nice neighbor look like? Well, I think we need to put big pieces on the table. I mean, part of the saying, you know, sorry, not sorry, but is, you know, you can pay for all the things that you rely on from us at today's price, or you can pay 25% more. It's your choice. But this isn't going to be a logical conversation. And so we can't just

go in with our sort of Canadian, like, here's our trade mutual benefit here, and here are the numbers. And we're really convinced you'll be convinced by that. That's not going to work. None of this is going to be linear or rational, as we saw with the first presidency. So we need to be able to put major things on the table, like our energy sector and the leverage we have there, like our critical minerals, like nickel. We're a major supplier of nickel for the United States. They have one nickel mine. They don't refine any of it. So if they don't buy it from us, they're buying it from Russia, or they're buying it from China through Indonesia. And that's not going to go well for their F-35s and their munitions factories. So just to be clear, I mean, what are you suggesting? That

you withhold those exports from the energy sector, from the critical mines sector, and you use that as a threat back to Donald Trump, saying if you impose these tariffs, then these things that you rely on, that your economy and parts of your economy rely on, perhaps won't be coming from Canada? I think to be united, we have to be willing to hurt a few parts of our economy in order to get the big win here. We just met with David Frum, he spoke at our event on Monday, and he said, you're going to need to be sitting at the table negotiating, and you're going to need to have a hammer under the table. And we need to identify what are those hammers and make sure that we're willing to use them if it comes to it. You think people in this country, I mean, we just heard from two premiers, you think they're going to be likely to hurt

individual parts of their economy? I think, unfortunately, we might need to be prepared to do that. This is going to hurt Canadians across the board, and we can't allow ourselves to say, oh, this province got a carve-out for this sector, but everybody else is hurting here. It's just not going to go well for our economy across the board. Andrew Fury said that this would be catastrophic, crippling for the economy in Newfoundland and Labrador

if 25% tariffs were coming into place. That was echoed by Susan Holt. What have you heard from your members in the past couple of days, specifically about what a 25% tariff would mean for them? Well, it's very concerning. We're hearing from a lot of our members, whether those are private sector companies,

associations, or local chambers of commerce that are highly reliant on tourism or trade with the United States. Without causing panic here, this is existential. The Canadian economy, two-thirds of every dollar are tied to trade, and about 70-plus of that is tied to the United States. And so what does this mean for Canadians? We've just run the numbers in our economics group. And it means a 2.6% hit or 78 billion off of our GDP next year, every year. And that's about just shy of 2000 per person per year that we're going to be paying for this. But in the United States, and this is the important thing, it's 1.6 off their GDP, 467 billion US, and that's 1300. So it hurts both of us. But people are

going to feel this, the grocery aisles, consumer goods, cars, tourism and business travel. If our borders thicken for any reason, whether that's migration issues or whether that's trade and tariffs getting slower and harder to do, that affects our borders, it affects our airports, it affects every part of our economy. I have to let you go, but just in a word or two, you take these threats seriously? Absolutely. We need to take them very seriously. We need to take Trump at his word, and we need to be prepared to come back at him. Matthew, thank you very much.

Thanks, Matt. Matthew Holmes is Executive Vice President and Chief of Public Policy at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.