The Current - Iran and Israel conflict could escalate quickly after Israeli strikes: expert

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

Israel targeted nuclear facilities inside Iran in a major attack against the country, killing top military brass and civilians alike. Iran is already retaliating against what it calls a “declaration of war” by Israel with drone strikes of its own. We hear from a journalist and an Iranian political expert about why the escalation is coming right now, and what it will take to de-escalate from here.

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Find an agent today at Desjardins.com slash business coverage. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. When enemies build weapons of mass death, stop them. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid out his government's justification in the last few hours for a major attack against Iran. The series of strikes targeted Iran's nuclear program, hitting that country's main nuclear

enrichment facility and killing many top military officials as well as civilians, according to Iran's government. Israel faced retaliation and response from Iran with 100 drones or so launched and the promise of further retaliation to come. Tensions had been high for days. On Wednesday, the United States polled some diplomats and military families from the region. Yesterday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran was not complying with its nuclear non-proliferation obligations. And all of this as the U.S.

and Iran were set to continue negotiations on the weekend. Greg Krollstrom is the Middle East correspondent for The Economist. Greg, hello. Hi, good morning. What do we know about why Israel chose to attack now? Hi, good morning. What do we know about why Israel chose to attack now? Well, the timing is the question for, I think, everyone looking at this right now. The Israeli government, the official story is that it's picked up intelligence that Iran

was accelerating its nuclear program. The Israelis are led that Iran was starting to weaponize its nuclear program, that it was taking steps towards actually building a nuclear bomb. It hasn't presented any evidence of that. I think in actuality, the timing has to do with other things. It has to do with Israeli concerns that perhaps the Americans were getting close to negotiating a deal, what the Israelis saw as a bad nuclear deal with Iran, I think, and also the expiration of Donald Trump's two-month deadline. He started negotiating with

Iran back in April. He had given the Iranians two months to conclude those negotiations. That deadline expired yesterday. Do we know how Israel carried out such a large attack with such consequences for Iran? It's been a mix of fighter jets that flew from Israel and then drones that launched from inside of Iran. The fighter jets, there are I think a couple of hundred that took part in these first two rounds of strikes. They seem to have flown over Syrian and Iraqi airspace. They refueled in the air at some point along the way, probably over Syria, and then proceeded

to Iran to drop bombs on targets there. But according to Israeli officials, they also set up what they're calling a forward base inside of Iran where they deployed explosive drones that have been used in some of these attacks. The strikes, for example, on the head of the Revolutionary Guard, the army chief in Iran, they seem to have been killed in targeted drone strikes. And again, the Israelis say that those were launched by operatives inside of Iran. How significant are the losses for Iran?

As you mentioned, the commander in chief of the military has been killed according to Iranian media, the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guard, other high ranking commanders, scientists as well who were involved and researchers who were involved in the nuclear program. How significant is this for Iran? It's very significant. It looks a lot like the opening days of the war in Lebanon last year when it really kicked off in September. And we saw in the first week or two, the Israelis killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and many of the leaders around him.

They seem to be using a similar playbook now in Iran. So I think a few names in particular that are very important. Ali Shamkhani, who is the national security adviser to the supreme leader in Iran. He had been a central figure in the nuclear talks and in setting Iran's security policy for many, many years. That's a significant personal loss to the Supreme Leader. And then someone named Amir Ali Hajizadeh, who is the missile chief for the Revolutionary Guard. He was the one last year who was in charge of those missile and drone attacks on Israel, both

in April and in October. He's overseen the creation of a ballistic missile program in Iran. He was killed in a strike this morning. That's going to have, I think, immediate consequences for Iran's ability to retaliate for these Israeli strikes. What do we know about what the United States knew of this attack and whether the US and the US president gave Israel US blessing for this? There's mixed reporting in this. Some people are saying that the United States is in the dark, but there's really officials who are suggesting

that Trump and his aides were pretending to oppose this Israeli attack in public because they wanted to convince Iran that no attack was imminent. What do we know about this? Well, I think no surprise that there's mixed reporting because everything is as clear as mud with the Trump administration. But I think it's fairly clear at this point that the United States was not in the dark. The United States knew about this attack. They knew the Israeli plan. They knew the timing of it. They weren't taken by surprise. Now in statements, both the president and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, have said that America was not directly involved.

America didn't help Israel carried out these strikes. I'm not sure that claim is going to carry much weight from the Iranians, but that is the messaging coming from the White House, which is doing almost a sort of good cop, bad cop routine with the Israelis right now. Trump, in a statement this morning, telling Iran, you know, you had time to negotiate a deal, you didn't negotiate one, this is what happened. If you want to avoid the next round of strikes, which he said will be even more brutal, then come back to the table and negotiate a nuclear deal if you want to avoid the next round.

So Trump trying to give the Iranians an off ramp, I guess, to negotiate a new agreement, but it's very hard to see how Iran would take it in these circumstances. What is your sense as to what that next round might look like? Israel is saying that people need to be prepared for a lengthy operation.

Iran is saying that it will make Israel regret, in some ways, what it has done over the last several hours. Is this just the beginning of something? It is according to the Israeli army. They're talking about several weeks of strikes. The second round, which seems to have begun in the past hour or so, looks to be aimed at, among other things, ballistic missile facilities. So things that Iran might want to use in retaliating against Israel depots where it keeps ballistic

missiles. I think that's going to be the focus, perhaps, for this next round, trying to blunt any Iranian retaliation. And then beyond that, there are other nuclear sites that Israel didn't hit in its first round earlier this morning, the enrichment plant at Fordow. Beyond that, there are other nuclear sites that Israel didn't hit in its first round earlier this morning, the enrichment plant at Fordow. There's a uranium processing facility near the city of Isfahan. Both of those key links in Iran's nuclear program, I suspect those are on Israel's

target in the coming days as well. What do you expect in terms of a response from Iran? The Supreme Leader said that Israel, quote, should anticipate a harsh punishment. You have been posting on social media an official statement from Hezbollah which makes no mention of military action against Israel and there are unnamed officials there suggesting to Reuters that the group will not attack on Iran's behalf. They don't have any good options, Iran. The idea of retaliating with missiles and drones is probably the least risky and most

conventional thing for them to do. But we saw earlier this morning their initial barrage of about 100 drones or so was shot down, all of it before it even reached Israeli territory. It did no damage. It's not clear what kind of shape their ballistic missile program is in after now two rounds of Israeli strikes. So they might struggle to retaliate directly in that way. They cannot rely on some of their regional proxies as they once would have.

Part of the reason Israel didn't do this for decades, despite threatening to do this, was because of Hezbollah in Lebanon, because it had this large arsenal aimed at Israel. But of course, much of that arsenal was destroyed last year in its war with Israel. So it won't be able to act on Iran's behalf in a big way. There are other groups like the Houthis in Yemen that might do so, but their ability to hit Israel is limited. So then I think the question for Iran is, do they want to widen this conflict? Do they want to attack American embassies in places like Iraq?

Do they want to attack energy infrastructure in the Gulf? Do they want to go after America and its allies in the hope that Donald Trump might then restrain Israel, tell it to stop this war in Iran. The problem is if they miscalculate, and Donald Trump instead of restraining Israel gets America involved directly, this becomes a much more existential threat than to the Iranian regime.

I have to let you go, but just finally, one other thing that you wrote is that it is mind boggling to think of the domino effect that Hamas's leadership set in motion on October the 7th. Just briefly, how drastically and dramatically has this region been reshaped? None of this would have been possible had it not been for the massacre on October 7th, the shock that followed and what it meant for Israel's security doctrine. There was for, what everyone called

the axis of resistance, this Iranian axis of militias across the Middle East that was the spearhead for Iranian power. That axis has now largely been smashed over the past two years, and Iran finds itself vulnerable in a way that it has not been since the 1980s. Greg, good to talk to you. Thank you very much for this.

Thank you. Greg Carlstrom is the Middle East correspondent with The Economist. At Desjardins Insurance, we know that when you own a cleaning company, things need to be tidy and organized at every step. That's why our agents go the extra mile to understand your business and provide tailored solutions for all its unique needs.

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Ali Vaiz is the director of the A.R.A.N. Project and senior advisor with the International Crisis Group. He's in Washington, D.C. this morning. Ali, good morning to you. Good to be with you. Crisis Group. He's in Washington, D.C. this morning. Ali, good morning to you. Good to be with you. First question is the first question that I asked. Greg, why now, why do you think Israel

has chosen to strike Iran now? Well, I think Israel perceived that there is a window of opportunity because of the fact that in October of last year, Israel damaged Iranian air defenses, and Iran was rushing not just to repair its defensive capabilities, but also to up its offensive capabilities

by producing many more ballistic missiles. And probably Israel was also worried that President Trump might finalize some kind of a deal with Iran that might not be beneficial to Israel. I think those are the two main motivations. How hobbled do you think Iran has been by this? As we mentioned, Israel tried to assassinate

nuclear scientists that it claimed were in the mix in terms of how to make a nuclear weapon, but also it went after, extensively, the entire top brass of the military in Iran. Look, so first of all, this is uncharted territory. Israel has in the past assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists and sabotaged Iranian nuclear facilities. The net result of those covert operations have often been the acceleration of Iran's

nuclear program because Iran has always retaliated by doubling down on its nuclear activities. But this operation is multi-dimensional. It's not just targeting the nuclear program, it's, as you said, targeting the top brass of the military and also potentially in the next round infrastructure in the country. And so I think it is perceived primarily by the Iranian regime as an attack that is more aimed at destabilizing the regime rather than defanging its nuclear program. And so it will most likely perceive an existential peril and will try to lash out as strong as it can. The question really is whether it has the ability to do so.

Because there is, I'm sure, they're railing after the elimination of the top leadership of the military, probably they realize how deeply penetrated the system is now by Israeli intelligence. And so that is sure to hamper their ability to retaliate, but I think the political motivation to do so is stronger than ever before. You also said on social media, by targeting population centers, Israel is inviting Iran to respond in kind,

and this will end in grief for all sides. Right, so last year, Iran launched two attacks against Israel, and every time there was plenty of advance notice and the targets were limited to military sites. Of course, Israel has a multi-layered air defense system and is well prepared for Iranian retaliation, but it mostly protects its sensitive sites. And by killing Iranian senior leaders at their homes in civilian areas in Tehran and elsewhere, basically I think Israel has invited Iran to try to do the same. And this becomes so much more difficult with all the capabilities that Israel

has to completely defeat a large scale attack on Israeli cities. And if that, if an Iranian retaliation results in fatalities, then we're in an entirely different dynamic, which is likely to escalate very quickly and suck the United States into a direct confrontation with Iran as well. Tell me more about the United States. a direct confrontation with Iran as well. Tell me more about the United States. What do you make of what we're hearing this morning? Again, sort of mixed messages and the president has been speaking about this as well, bluntly

as he does. Do you believe that the United States gave Israel its tacit approval for this attack? I have a hard time believing that because I don't think President Trump is naive about the consequences of a war between Iran and Israel and whether the US can actually completely keep itself shielded off from these tensions. And he was, even as of yesterday, sounding quite optimistic about the prospects of getting a deal with Iran. I think he's now trying to catch up and portray himself as being ahead of the curve, not being

hoodwinked by Prime Minister Netanyahu. So he is trying to say that there was some kind of tacit agreement by the United States, but I think Prime Minister Netanyahu has forced his hand. But as you said, I mean, the fear here is that this escalates such that the United States is drawn into this conflict. What would the U.S. be worried about there? Well, the problem is that U.S. has 40,000 troops

in and around the Persian Gulf region. And they're all considered from an Iranian perspective, sitting ducks. And so Iran can start targeting US personnel and interests in the region and beyond. And this is a president, President Trump, who came to office with the promise of ending wars, not beginning new ones.

And especially not in that part of the world came to office with the promise of ending wars, not beginning new ones, and especially not in that part of the world where there is real reluctance within his core constituents, the Maga camp, that they don't want to see the U.S. being bogged down once again in an unwinnable war in that part of the world. Plus, these tensions have already resulted in spiking up oil prices and are likely to continue to do so in the coming days if these tensions escalate further. And that is going to also hit President Trump's core constituents and his bottom line, especially in the run up to midterm elections next year. What sort of international reaction do you expect from this? And I ask in part because in recent weeks we have seen criticism from countries like Canada, France, and the UK when it comes to Israel's war in Gaza. So

how do you expect the international community to respond to this? Look I think it would be most likely mixed messages of asking for a restrain without really condemning Israeli strike on Iranian territory. The problem is that honestly, there's only one way of stopping this cycle of escalation and that is for the United States to pull the plug on further escalation. That requires President Trump to do something that he clearly is unprepared to do right now, which is to tell Israel that if it continues fighting, it would stop transfer of weapons to Israel and also threaten Iran

that if Iran continues to fight, then the US would get directly involved. That's the only way to stop the cycle. But again, right now, there is no evidence that President Trump would be moving in that direction. Or would Israel listen to the president? I mean, this is the other issue is that the president, it's not just Trump, former President Joe Biden also was, I mean, and people may say that he was not strong enough in his language, but pushed back against Israel, particularly in the war in Gaza. And it seemed as though Benjamin Netanyahu either ignored that or downplayed that advice. So is there a willing audience for that message, even if it comes from Donald Trump?

It's much more about leverage than about messaging. The US has leverage over Israel, and that is the provision of weapons. If the US pulls the plug on provision of weapons, then Israel would not be able to continue fighting on all these different fronts. But it's one thing to fight in Gaza or in Lebanon or in Syria where US interests are not directly affected or US personnel are not directly put in harm's way. It's another thing to start a war with Iran that risks dragging United States into another war in the region. And that's why I think it is justified for the president

to use this leverage, and he is much better placed than President Biden was to do so. But for now, it appears that President Trump wants to basically exploit the situation to force a deal down the throat of the Iranians and that is very unlikely to happen because a wounded Iran is much likely to double down and lash out than to come to the negotiating table and concede. I have to let you go, but that does not sound optimistic in terms of what may come in the

days and weeks ahead. No, unfortunately, I think it's all doom and gloom for the region in the coming days and weeks. Ali, thank you very much for this. My pleasure. Ali Vaiz is the director of the A.R.O.N. Project and the senior advisor with the International Crisis Group. We reached him in Washington, D.C. You've been listening to The Current Podcast.

My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.