The Current - Is turbulence ‘all but guaranteed’ in Canadian politics?

Episode Date: October 29, 2024

New Brunswick chose change, the Saskatchewan Party won a fifth straight majority, and the B.C. result was so close it took days to decide. Our national affairs panel looks at what these provincial results might mean for the next federal election — and whether “turbulence is all but guaranteed.”

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news, so I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with Season 3 of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy.

On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current Podcast. This was a much closer election than what we have seen in quite some time in this province. Just over roughly half of the voters voted for the Saskatchewan party and there's another half of the voters that voted for someone else and I would say this that I've heard the message that was delivered here this evening and the Saskatchewan party will be a government that works for all of the people of Saskatchewan and now some may allude to tonight's

results as means that we are divided in this province. And I would disagree with that because I know regardless of who you voted for in this election, you did so because you wanted what was best for the province that we know, love and live in. It has been a busy week in Canadian politics. The Saskatchewan party won their fifth straight majority in that province, the first such streak since the Tommy Douglas days ended more than 60 years ago. B.C.'s much-anticipated election result finally tallied yesterday after going nine days without a clear winner, and the B.C. NDP won by a razor-thin margin and will hang on to power.

It's still not clear whether that will be a majority or minority government. And last week, New Brunswick voted in Liberal Susan Holt as their first female premier, ousting progressive conservative Blaine Higgs. And finally, over the weekend, Nova Scotia's conservative premier Tim Houston called a snap election. Whew, that's a lot to unpack in Canada. We have three guests to help us, joining us to talk through what it all means

and what politicians in Ottawa might be taking away from those results. Rob Shaw is a political correspondent for Czech News and the host of the podcast Political Capital out of Victoria, B.C. Murray Mandrick is a political columnist at the Regina Leader Post and Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter in the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau. Good morning to you all. Good morning. Good morning.

Murray, a long night for you and an early start. The results out of Saskatchewan, my home province. Yes, it was. What does this win mean for Scott Moe? I mean, yes, he won, but his majority was affected. Well, I beg to differ on the divided part because this is a very divided province right now. It was a divisive campaign divided on social issues that halfway through the campaign, that halfway through the campaign, the premier said he was making his number one priority change room issues in schools involving what he described as biological males not being able to

change in biological females change rooms in schools, not that this was an issue. And that's the problem. This was a party that went in search of a problem when it had several other problems to deal with. The 26 NDP seats you saw last night, which are 12 more than they had, was reflective of that. In this province, the NDP has been stuck around 12, 14 seats for the past 16 years since Brad Wall first brought the SAS party to power in 2007. This broke that streak last night, an oppressive streak, obviously. Five years or five straight terms suggest that this is a very conservative province, much unlike the Tommy Douglas government. But it's also a very urban province, much unlike the Tommy Douglas government. But it's also a very urban province. And in the same alignment as we're seeing in Alberta,

where you had Edmonton and Calgary vote NDP, and in Manitoba in their provincial election, when you had Winnipeg vote NDP, we are now in Saskatchewan seeing almost a virtual sweep, only two seats in Saskatoon went Sask Party, the entire city of Regina went NDP. So we're seeing a very huge division split between rural and urban in this province. And I think that's now the problem that Scott and Mo has to contend with. But I think the problem that Canadians have to contend with in general is we're seeing

divisions between social issues and on the economy and certainly between rural and urban. Marie, we're going to get back to Saskatchewan in just a moment. between rural and urban. Marie, we're going to get back to Saskatchewan in just a moment. But I want to turn to B.C. because, Rob, it took a long time to get the final result in that province. And what does that say that this vote was so close? The incumbent premier barely sneaked back in. Well, yeah, we had a brand sort of new entity in British Columbia, the Conservative Party of BC, which looked like kind of an off-Broadway production of the federal Conservative Party, even though they're not affiliated.

Same logo, same colors, same common sense change and axe the tax message. nasty, nasty election campaign that closed basically yesterday with a 27 vote victory for the NDP and one riding, which got them over the majority threshold. So they have a bare majority where they're still going to be deadlocked when they name a speaker, where the speaker is going to be breaking tie votes for them, which is not great, but that's what it is. But it was such a, it was an election in which the incumbent New Democrat premier said to people very clearly, the Conservative Party is full of racist, transphobic, homophobic, science-denying, climate-denying wackos who are unfit to even run for office, let alone win. And he not only lost his majority, he tumbled down to almost losing office

and half of the province voted for the Conservative Party and its candidates, including one candidate who had extremely controversial comments about Muslims, locked himself in the office of his, in a utility closet in his campaign office when reporters came to find him, still won by a handy margin. So we're wrestling with that in BC, and our premier is wrestling with that. He lost massive amounts of support in seats and five cabinet ministers and

to a party he said was unfit to even run. And he's wrestling with what that means and how the province is divided that way. And that story in B.C. is still being written as we speak this week. I want to bring in Stephanie Levitz. Last week, the Liberals, led by Susan Holt, won a majority government in New Brunswick. A bit of an upset against the incumbent progressive conservative Premier Blayden Higgs. What was her secret sauce? Why did she win? Well, a couple of things for sure that we're seeing play out across the country, and I think in New Brunswick, a change election would be one of them, a loss of faith in the current leadership as evidenced not only by the voters of New Brunswick, but also within Blaine Higgs' own

party. I mean, over the last little while, he's lost cabinet ministers. There's been defections, a lot of tension about his leadership style. Not unlike in Saskatchewan, too, I think, you know, Susan Holt was able to reach out to a voting demographic that felt quite abandoned by Blaine Hanks, Francophone voters being one in particular. He had never learned to speak French in his time as premier, and there are quite a few Francophone voters, to say the least, in New Brunswick. And also, it's the wave of change that we're seeing play out, you know, not necessarily just in Canadian provincial elections, but a lot of folks have called 2024

the year of democracy, where like a large proportion of the world's population is going to the polls seeking some kind of reset, some kind of change. And we're seeing it play out globally. And we're absolutely seeing it play out, you know, here provincially. And we'll see what 2025 might bring federally. Indeed. I mean, we've heard about a caucus revolt against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the last few weeks. He still insists he's staying on. How is the upheaval in the Liberal Party federally impacting provincial politics? Or is it? Or is it the reverse, really? Well, I think you could look again you could look at it from two different directions susan holton new brunswick for example won election

um on the liberal name although with justin trudeau nowhere near her entire campaign right really working hard to disassociate herself um from him at all for sure you know in federal politics over the last few years there's been a lot of concern that what's happened at the federal level is a rural-urban divide, that the Liberals have become the party of urban Canada and the Conservatives have largely become the party of rural Canada. And you can see that playing out to a degree in the provincial election results and the way that you have, you know, Conservatives versus left, centre-left parties, the New Democrats or the Liberals in the case of New Brunswick. left, centre-left parties, the New Democrats, or the Liberals in the case of New Brunswick. Where this might be interesting to watch is the extent to which Pierre Polyev, as a Conservative leader, can he crack that? Is he the leader, oddly to think of it, that becomes the Captain Canada that bridges that rural-urban divide, which pollsters say he can do right now? And that would be a mantle that's long

been worn by the Liberal Party, that they were supposed to be, you know, considered by many the natural governing party of Canada. They governed for everyone. But the provincial results suggest that maybe that's not as true as it used to be. And we'll see if the federal results play out the same way. Stephanie, just briefly, is there a role that the federal Liberals' woes are playing in Nova Scotia? I mean, Tim Houston, the Premier, made an early role that the federal Liberals' woes are playing in Nova Scotia? I mean, Tim Houston, the Premier, made an early election call, I think it's eight months earlier, from a fixed election date next year. I mean, to a degree, because what's happening with the Liberal government on the way out and with a lot of Premiers like Houston and others having aligned themselves so closely to a lot of the national programs that the Liberals, the federal Liberals, I should say, have rolled out in their tenure, you might want to get ahead of the collapse of the federal liberal party if that's where things are looking. You don't want to be tainted by that.

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with season three of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Marie, back to Saskatchewan.

You know, we looked, we heard talk about change. Stephanie was saying these are change times, yet Scott Moe was able to hang on. Is there a message for other conservative premiers from this election in your province? That's so difficult to say because Scott Moe's core message actually worked. And his core message was Pierre Poliev's axe to tax. Scott Moe ran on that from day one when he was first elected Saskatchewan Party leader and then premier in January 2018. His first message was basically just watch me is in a bit of a parody on Pierre Trudeau's speech. And the just watch me part was taking on the carbon tax. Now, that morphed into something quite different during COVID. And I think at least in this province, probably elsewhere, COVID kind of changed everything you could almost trace the

tone change in Scott in Saskatchewan to Christmas in January 2021 when he took a break for Christmas went home to a small town in Shellbrook and was repeatedly told that the restrictions that his community and rural Saskatchewan and other communities were experiencing were too strict, that now was the time to move on, that people needed to be able to see their families, etc., that they shouldn't have to go around with masks, etc. After COVID, that morphed into a whole bunch of other issues. The Freedom Convoy was part of that transition, and Scott Moe and his Sask Party government were certainly not opposed to the message of the Freedom Convoy of cute game in terms of the wrongdoings of that convoy when it came to blocking border passages and ports and stuff. And Scott Moe was hardly critical of that. After COVID, that morphed into something else. And I think that's why even in a place like Saskatchewan, where you might not expect it to happen, we're seeing this issue over transgender play out in provincial campaigns when obviously it's not a political issue here.

And obviously this is not necessarily the province that you think that things like this would be an issue. But we're like every place else. We have issues in the cities and elsewhere where human rights are being exercised in a way that there wasn't before. We have huge problems, not just in the cities, with fentanyl and drug overdoses. And this government does not really know how to handle that. So one of the more minor issues in this campaign was what to do with addicts and whether you should treat them with a velvet glove or the heavy hand. And all these issues, I think, are being played out everywhere at the provincial level.

And it makes for an interesting political discussion, but it doesn't make for easy governance. No. Because people have strong views on these issues. Right. And Scott Moe is saying he's listening, as most incumbents who get re-elected with a reduced majority say that. So it'll be interesting to watch. Rob, turning to BC again, I mean, you said this was one of the nastiest campaigns ever. Do you think the tone of what you saw

will translate to like Nova Scotia or maybe Ontario if Rob Ford calls an election, Doug Ford, pardon me, calls an election next year? Well, I think to pick up on what everyone else has been saying there, yes, I mean, we have changed elections and a frustrated electorate in British Columbia. The tone was partly because, you know, we have incredible challenges in cost of living. Our health care system has curtailed emergency room closures all over the place. We went a little bit further in British Columbia on the addictions file with decriminalization, which was a spectacular disaster politically and has put the NDP on its heels. And there was an

intense public frustration, a backlash against the NDP, and the Conservatives were able to whip it up. And the NDP's only comeback in this entire election, its entire campaign was built around daily drops of past social media comments that Conservative candidates have made that were increasingly outrageous, like things like suggesting the COVID vaccine gives you AIDS or that the 5G wireless network is a sign of the rapture. And so their entire campaign, instead of offering a proposition to solve these problems, which the NDP have been in power for seven years, was the other guys are worse than us.

And these are huge problems. You know, we think maybe we're turning a corner. We've been in power for a while. Keep sticking with us because the alternative is really, really bad. And when you start structuring a campaign around that, it gets nasty very, very quickly. And that's sort of the tone and tenor of what we went through. And it could be the tone and tenor of some other campaigns as well. Stephanie, jump in here. Do you think Pierre Polyev, the federal conservative leader, is looking at these provincial outcomes and taking some message? And if so, what?

Well, you know, it's funny, as I was listening to Rob talk, I thought you've just laid out the blueprint for the next federal election in terms of how the liberals are positioning themselves, right? Stick with us. We've got this. The other guys are terrible. Please don't vote for them. And that's effectively what they have in the window for voters. For Mr. Polyev, a couple of things. I mean, for sure, watching, you know, a Conservative Party on ascendancy in British Columbia has got to give him some relief in terms of what seats he might be able to pick up in BC. He's probably spent, you know, divided his time outside of Ottawa pretty evenly between southwestern Ontario, the GTA 905, and British Columbia's lower mainland and the interior. He

really believes his party can make a significant dent there and scoop up seats from the NDP. British Columbia showed him that it is possible. So there's a message there for him. There's a message in New Brunswick for him, which is that voters want people to – voters want their leaders to focus on the issues that matter to them. to them. And one of the things that Premier incumbent Holt was able to do was talk about healthcare, was talk about taxes, was talking about, you know, the bread and butter things that really worry people. And that resonated in a way the previous leadership of Premier Higgs did not. So there's a message there for him. In Saskatchewan, it's, you know, perhaps looking at this prairie populism and how it lands and where things will shake out between the rural

urban divide. How does he become Mr. Polyev? Should he want to become prime minister, prime minister for everybody with a unifying message and not go down a rabbit hole of, you know, as Murray pointed out, issues that aren't really issues and instead stay focused on the things people want their leaders to deal with. This is the quick snap around, everybody. Two minutes left. A lot of turbulence in politics these days, and we're all watching the American election coming up very fast. Are we going to see more turbulence in Canada, Rob?

Yeah, no, I think so for sure. I mean, a frustrated electorate and an attired incumbent government and big problems that no one seems to know the answers to create that environment for sure. Yeah, absolutely. I don't think politicians know how to deal with the animosity. And it's odd because in at least in Saskatchewan and elsewhere I've seen it's the politicians creating it. at least in Saskatchewan and elsewhere I've seen, it's the politicians creating it. Scott Moe basically talked about the need to come together after four years of essentially dividing the province. Now, maybe he didn't do this deliberately. Maybe he's sincere in his

thoughts and beliefs about conservatives and their views and rights. I think he is. But the fact of the matter is, by virtue of doing what he's doing, he's added to the problem. And now it's up to the very same politicians that created the mess to solve it. And I don't know if they have the tools to do so. Indeed. Stephanie, a few words. With the minority liberal government in power in Ottawa hanging on by its fingernails, turbulence is all but guaranteed. Oh, my gosh. Well, we've got another full year of politics coming up. We haven't even gotten to the finish line in the U.S. and more to come provincially and federally. It'll be a very interesting time.

Thank you so much, all of you, for jumping in this morning. Thank you. Thanks for having me. You're very welcome. Rob Shaw is the political correspondent for Czech News and the host of the podcast Political Capital out of Victoria. Murray Mandrick is a political columnist at the Regina Leader Post. He was in Regina this morning.

And Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter in the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.