The Current - Justin Trudeau will resign. What happens next?

Episode Date: January 6, 2025

Justin Trudeau says he will resign as prime minister after the Liberal Party picks a new leader. Matt Galloway discusses what happens next — and when Canadians can expect an election — with former Conservative strategist Chad Rogers, Liberal strategist Susan Smith and Brad Lavigne, a former national director of the NDP.

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I'm a fighter, and I will always be motivated by what is in the best interest of Canadians. And the fact is, despite best efforts to work through it, Parliament has been paralyzed for months. Justin Trudeau has asked the governor general to prorogue parliament until the 24th of March while the party finds a new leader. It is a remarkable moment in this country and to make sense of it,

we have a panel of political insiders here with us. Chad Rogers is a founding partner at Crestview Strategy, former conservative strategist. He's with me in our studio in Toronto. Brad Levine is a former national director of the New Democratic Party. He's now president in our studio in Toronto. Brad Levine is a former national director of the New Democratic Party. He's now president of Council Public Affairs. And in Ottawa, Susan Smith, liberal commentator and co-founder and principal

at Blue Sky Strategy Group. Good morning, everyone. Good morning, Matt. Good morning. This is such an interesting moment in part because of what the prime minister said and also what he did not say. What, I guess we should start with you, Susan. what the prime minister said and also what he did not say. I guess we should start with you, Susan.

What did you make of what Justin Trudeau had to say? Well, he said what we've all been waiting for. I think the country's been waiting for it. Certainly members of the Liberal Party or his caucus had been waiting for it, is that he's stepping down as prime minister and stepping down as leader of the party. Once the party has had a robust national competitive process to choose a new leader. He listed some of the significant accomplishments, but not all of them in his time, in terms

of fighting climate change, changing the conversation around reconciliation, free trade and other things, child poverty in particular. That was really important. And the other thing that I thought was very important was he thought that in the interest of Canadians and the well-being of democracy that Canadians deserve a real choice in the next election. And that he owned up to the fact that he's he's not the best guy to go in and fight Palyev and he wants to make sure that the Liberal Party has the best person

at the helm or the Liberals will choose that and that the country has a real choice. Chad, what did you make of what Justin Trudeau said and what he didn't say? Well, thank him for his service, tough to be prime minister, tough to get kicked out of your job. I was shocked as a departing parliamentary leader, he didn't thank the people of Papineau who elected him five times, that he didn't, in fact he blamed the House of Commons on his problems as opposed to thanking it as an institution. And he asked us all to respect the great institution of the Liberal Party and give it time to have a discussion about how it could better rule us. I thought it was a little tone deaf frankly. I would

have thought of a more humble and emotional speech from this guy on this day, but I think that's why he's going. You were also surprised that he didn't mention his father. Very much. Historically, we've had very few dynastic families in Canadian politics. His father obviously had two interesting departures from the chair, and I would have thought that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes, that there was a moment there, but I'm not going to try and psychoanalyze the PM. Brad Levine, what did you make of this? This is, as I said, it's a remarkable moment,

but it's a moment that so many Canadians saw coming in some ways. Yeah, it almost feels as though he was the last to know that his time was up and it took this long. I think most Canadians are saying, okay, so this is the day that we all knew was coming. Why now? What took you so long? What I found interesting with his uh with his resignation remarks was the notion that he placed the blame not not not as much on himself or lack of leadership

that he was called upon to show but internal divisions no longer made parliament work and we have to understand that one of the reasons why parliament has been paralyzed for months which he which he admitted which i I believe he has not done very often in the past, showing that parliament has not gotten much done over the last number of weeks, is due to liberal scandal. And the second one is this notion that he is not a viable candidate to take on Pierre-Paul Levin, Jagmeet Singh, in the next federal election. He, for months, has been signaling that he and only he would be the one to save the Liberal Party. So today that admission after losing not only the country's

support being at all-time lows in the in the public domain polls at like 16 percent but also losing his caucus support and obviously in December losing his deputy prime minister and minister of finance's support. So this has been shedding. He had no place left to turn to for support because it is all now dried up. And now he's just as a lame duck prime minister for the next three months. What do you make of that, Susan?

I mean, again, to Brad's point, Justin Trudeau said in this studio and just about everywhere else, that he was the person who would be taking on pure politics, that he relished that opportunity and that it was his belief that Canadians perhaps weren't as dialed into politics as others might, but when the time came, they would realize that he was the person.

How difficult do you think it was for him to admit that he is not going to be the person? I think that's a very difficult decision for any leader to make. They're human beings and they step into these roles because they do believe that they can lead. Every leader, pick your stripe, feels that way. But I think, you know, his eyes were finally opened wide when he received the letters from

caucus. I think the Freeland quitting set it up. But what he was hearing from his MPs was what they were hearing at the door. And in my conversations with MPs, what they're telling me is, their constituents are saying, we're liberals, we like you, but you need a new leader. And he finally listened and he spent some time in his news conference talking about Pierre Palyev's so-called vision, I guess he said, if you call it that, and the need for a more ambitious positive vision for

the country going forward. So, he did set up the juxtaposition of Paliév and what a new liberal leader will bring forward, and I think that's a good thing. But tough for any leader to really sort of face some comeuppance. He's had to face it and I think he's done the right thing. Who could that leader be and how will the party go about choosing him? Yeah, so there are many options for the leader. I think they're all really solid people, the names that are being bandied about at the moment. There's some outside folks like Christy Clark, former Premier of BC, Mark Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada and former Governor of the Bank of England,

as well as he's been in the world as investment bank and a former public servant. You're hearing names like Christa Freeland, of course, Dominique LeBlanc, potentially Carina Gould, who's the house leader. I see her more as a positioning thing. A little more quiet on the Francois Philippe Champagne front and Melanie Jolie front, and same with Anita Anon. Remains to be seen if they throw their names into the mix. But the people who were working the phones hard over the holidays,

we're told through news reports and through talking to people, Christy Clark, Christian Freeland, Mark Carney are the ones that I think have their running shoes laced up and ready to go. Chad, who do you think Pierre Polyov is most concerned about when it comes to those people that Susan has mentioned that perhaps other names being tossed around as well, uh, as to who could be the next leader of the liberal party. I think Pierre Pauli is concerned about Monsieur Blanchet and the race for seats in Quebec. He doesn't seem to be running. Monsieur Blanchet does not seem to be in the running for the leader of the liberal party.

Yeah, I'm talking about leaders that are going to matter in the 2025 federal election. Uh, who the Paul Bears are at the funeral are never names I've ever remembered. The leader of the liberal interregnum will go down with Blake as least significant liberal leader in Canadian history. So it does not, from your perspective, it does not matter who the liberals choose as their next leader in this election whenever it happens to be. Kim Campbell will have been more historically significant and interesting than the placeholder insert name here, liberal leader of party in 2025. I disagree with that.

I disagree with that, Matt. I actually think Pierre Poliev's worst nightmare has come, almost come true. He wanted to run against Justin Trudeau and the fact that there is now a liberal leadership takes time, energy, airwaves, print column inches away from Pierre Poliev and his slogans and what he wants to do, because people are going to be looking at maybe what the Liberals could be serving up. They haven't made up their mind yet about Pugliav, and because he doesn't know who the next leader will be on the Liberal side of things, they're going to have to adjust

their game plan to a certain extent. If it's someone from inside, it's a bit easier. If it's someone from the outside, they're going to have to construct a new narrative. And Pierre Pugliav doesn't just get to blame it all on Trudeau going forward. And it will cause Canadians who haven't fully embraced Pierre Paulyev, who haven't fully made up their minds, to step back, take a breath and say, who can best lead this country going forward? Chad, quickly.

Well, if the Conservative campaign could point a camera and pay for a live stream of everything liberals say in the next three months And stand back and just let that happen. I think they would invest in that. I think the liberal bus crash That we're watching is meaningless in 2025 We have to prepare to deal with the US we have to get ready to elect a new government that will be led by Pierre Poliev and we have to decide what the legacy of Justin Trudeau meant. Brad. Who the liberal leader is. I want to bring you in, but I was just going to, before that, read a statement put out by Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP, which says, the problem is not just Justin Trudeau, it is every

minister that's been calling the shots. It's every liberal MP that looked down their nose at Canadians who are worried about high costs or crumbling healthcare. The liberals do not deserve another chance no matter who is the leader, which seems to put paid to the question I was going to ask you, which is would the NDP prop up somebody else other than Justin Trudeau? No, I think that Mr. Singh will be speaking later today,

and I think he will be emphatic that the liberal's time is up for any opportunity for the new Democrats to support whoever chooses who's ever chosen to be the next leader, that they cannot count on NDP support when the House returns in the minority context sometime after March 24th. Now when we take a look at leaders, and I think it's very important, I think there's two things to look for.

Your question, Matt, you know, is there somebody who can save the furniture here? Let's look at two criteria. One is with the unpopularity of Trudeau, so goes with him his legacy. And therefore, there needs to be the candidates who will do the best either among the membership or among the public domain pools, which are also important, even though they don't get it. Not every Canadian gets a vote on the leader, but I think liberal voters who will be participating

in this, uh, look to those polls as some indication as to who they want to support has to distance themselves from the Trudeau legacy. That will be uncomfortable for the sitting lame duck Prime Minister. The second point if you take a look

at the at the at the liberal where liberals normally gain the most support in order for them to be competitive. We're talking the 905 which is Toronto and the surrounding suburbs, Montreal and the surrounding suburbs and the lower mainland. Let's take a look at the lower mainland of British Columbia, the metro Vancouver area. there's lots of federal seats there. Just the Langley by-election with Trudeau as leader, they got absolutely trounced. And you take a look, no provincial support anymore. There is no Liberal Party in British Columbia anymore. It is a two-way conservative New Democrat province now.

And I submit that the next leader is going to have to say, I can build support in the 905 in Toronto, in Montreal, and in the Metro Vancouver area. Those are the three areas, if they want any possibility of coming back. I don't see it. I think people have made up their mind. We've seen that before in British Columbia history, where once the electorate makes up their mind,

they can change the leader multiple times, but they've moved on. And now what they're talking about is, what are the alternatives? Is it Mr. Poliev or is it Mr. Singh? Matt, can I just throw a little spanner into the works that we haven't talked about? Because Brad's talked about the provinces. Something we haven't talked about today yet is Ontario and Doug Ford and the timing of a provincial election. Mr. Ford has a majority government in Ontario, but he can pull the trigger whenever he wants. And there's lots and lots of chatter of him pulling the trigger in January for a February

election. That would eat up voter attention. It would also eat up donor funds and volunteer funds from the Conservative Party. It may and leave people tired at the end of it. Pierre Poliev's group draws a lot on Doug Ford's people to get out the vote and mobilize people. That could change the hurry-up nature of things if a big voter chunk, that includes the 905 that Brad is talking about, has had election fatigue.

So I think that's something I'm going to keep my eye on. But Brad is right when he says, you know, it will be uncomfortable for Mr. Trudeau because a new liberal leader will have to put their own stake in the ground and have to do the kind of contrast they need both with the Trudeau legacy, but as well with a Polly of quote unquote vision for the country. The question I suppose is the context that this is unfolding and that you have a new Trump administration that's going to take over the White House in a couple of weeks time,

there are these threats of tariffs that are looming over the heads of Canadians. And you wonder Susan, whether if there is a long leadership contest, whether Canada weakens its bargaining position with Trump. So a couple of things, Matt. I don't think there will be a long leadership contest. I think it will be the Liberal Party will figure out a way to do the shortest, shortest competitive robust. And what is short? I'm not the constitutional expert. I think it will be that the Liberal Party will figure out a way to do the shortest shortest competitive robust What is short? I'm not the constitutional expert. I think you know between 60 and 90 days We'll see what they can figure out but that the most important thing only gives us 77 days Well, that's between 60 and 90 Chad last I checked on my math But the not an economist that that part I could count

But the other thing that's super important about Trump is Trump has said he's going to apply the tariffs no matter what. It does not matter which leader of which party is in on January 20th. Donald Trump's going to do what he's going to do. What does matter is the work that's been happening right now by the public service, by our political leaders, the prime minister and cabinet ministers, by premiers talking to governors, by mayors talking to mayors, by business leaders talking to business leaders. That work continues and that's going to mitigate, hopefully, what Trump does with Canada as

he gets a better understanding of if you put a tariff on Canadian refined petroleum products, it's going to cost Americans more to gas up their cars. So Trump, the Trump administration is going to be new, finding the bathroom. They know a little bit where some of the bathrooms are, but not everybody will when they get to the White House. And there will be time for adjustment and our public servants, our cabinet, our government will continue on working with the premiers and all of the people as we have in the past to do what's best to mitigate against Trump. But Trump will be Trump, make no mistake.

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Available in hardcover and audiobook narrated by Jane Philpott. Pierre Poliev has been giving some interviews as to how he would approach a Trump administration. Have a listen to some of what he said on CTV's Your Morning. We're not going to compromise anything that hurts to hurt our country's security or economy, period. And we shouldn't have to because our interests are aligned.

What are the negotiating tools I have? Well, I can say, look, Mr. President, if you try to cripple our economy, obviously we would have to respond with counter tariffs that will hurt on the American side. Your workers will lose jobs because they will no longer be able to upgrade our natural resources and higher gas prices would result even though the president has promised to cut them in half. Chad, how different would Pierre Poliev's approach be in dealing with Donald Trump than

what we see now? Or is Donald Trump, as Susan says, Trump's going to Trump? Yeah, I think a new prime minister has, with a fresh mandate, is good at the table, number one. I think a new prime minister that doesn't believe a carbon economy is somehow toxic or inappropriate and that there's a certain amount of appropriate and responsible extraction of resources that we should allow back in the market. We should remove the discount from the Canadian companies that extract that energy commodity that frankly the US wants to buy and wants to see more of created in fortress North America. And the third is a partner that may want to responsibly invest in NATO and

NORAD again, get us up over 2%, build submarines, make a stronger commitment to the border. I think security and energy are the secret sauce for a new conservative prime minister to strike a new deal with the White House. Pierre Poliev did this interview with Jordan Peterson, 90 minute interview, which got a lot of attention. What do you think Canadians learned? And I ask you this in part because people are trying

to figure out who Pierre Poliev is and what he might do as prime minister. What do you think Canadians learned from that conversation? He's maybe more economically focused than culture war focused, that he decided to do an interview with a guy that some people find distasteful, but who reaches the biggest audience of any podcast host in North America right now, other than Joe Rogan. I mean, 45 million people have listened to it as of this morning. He decided to go where the people are much like Kamala Harris refused to do when she wouldn't go on Joe Rogan. He's

decided to try and win and Pierre Pauli have spent the last two years doing nothing but being on the road doing town halls and talking to people. So I don't think he's scared to have a conversation about the plan. I think he like everybody looks at the economy and looks at the financial ruin the outgoing government may have left for him and says first year is going to be hard. Susan? So Matt, I'm one of the people that initially clicked on that interview and helped drive up those

numbers, but as I was out walking my dog, I just couldn't get all the way to the end. I did hear Pierre Poliev spew out a whole bunch of numbers, none of which were substantiated. In terms of negotiation, I don't know who he's negotiated with ever. So in terms of his approach with Pierre Pelliev, not too sure. He likes to speak in the public domain. So will he continue to negotiate in the public domain? I don't know. Going to Jordan Peterson, probably not a bad move.

Put some things on the record. I questioned that Chad's comment on the culture wars. I heard Pierre Pelliev stayed in the interview long enough to hear him say, no more hyphenated Canadians. So if you're Indo-Canadian, Italian-Canadian, Chinese-Canadian, Ukraine-Canadian, Pierre Palli doesn't want to hear about that part of it. And so I don't know how people are going to feel about that. He talked about, in broad strokes, things he wants to stop doing, printing the money.

I'm not quite sure what that means, but I wonder what he would cut to be able to do what he wants to do. Where's the money going to come from for a border? Where's the money going to come from for increased defense spending? Does that mean cutting Canada Child Benefit, cutting PharmaCare, cutting dental care, cutting school food programs? Those are the questions I have and I didn't get those answers out of the Peterson interview.

Brad, we're just about out of time. As you take a look at this day and the announcement from this day, what do you expect to see in the weeks following? I mean, it feels, it's only Monday, it's only the beginning of a new year. What are you expecting to see? I'm expecting to see a bump in the liberal polls in the next 72 hours because of his resignation. I'm expecting to see press releases out announcing leadership races faster rather than slower. And I think that within a week's time, next Monday, Matt, on The Current, we're going to be talking about the you know, the first individuals who are running. I think those that get into the race the fastest have an advantage. Those that

wait too long will have a disadvantage. Maybe we'll have you back next Monday. The door is always open. Thank you all for being here this morning. Looking forward to it. Thanks. Thanks, Matt. Chad Rogers, founding partner of Crestview Strategy, former Conservative strategist. He was in our Toronto studio. Brad Levine, former national director of the New Democratic Party, he's now president of Council Public Affairs. And Susan Smith, liberal commentator and co-founder and principal of the Blue Sky Strategy Group. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.