The Current - Mark Carney becomes PM today. When will he call an election?

Episode Date: March 14, 2025

Liberal Leader Mark Carney will be sworn in as prime minister later today, with political observers suggesting he could call a federal election as early as next week. Our politics panel unpacks what that campaign might look like — and whether it will come down to who Canadians think is capable of standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump.

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This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. This may be my last day here in this office, but I will always be boldly and unapologetically Canadian. My only ask is that no matter what the world throws at us, you always be the same. Well that is outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau who posted that farewell on social media yesterday and it's been a long goodbye but today marks the end of an era in Canadian politics. After 10 years as Prime Minister, Trudeau is set to submit his resignation to the Governor General and then a new cabinet headed up by a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, will be sworn in. A federal election could follow soon after amid a trade war and tensions with the US

that have scrambled the political map. Joining me now to discuss all of this are three of our top political watchers. Ryan Tumulty is a political reporter with the Toronto Star. Stephanie Levitz is the senior reporter with the Toronto Star. Stephanie Levitz is the senior reporter with the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau and Michelle C. Auger is a political columnist at La Presse and a commentator for Radio Canada. Good morning to you all. Good morning.

Good morning. Ryan, let me start with you. The, you know, the, the, the starting pistol will be fired later this morning in terms of mark carney's time in office what does he have to do to really make himself differentiate himself from the tired liberal brand yeah well you know i think we're going to see a little bit of that today i think

uh... you know the the stories that we have heard so far the the details that uh... you know we've been able to confirm say that he's going to bring in a cabinet with a lot of, not so much too many new faces, but a lot of Trudeau era cabinet ministers are going to be leaving. We've reported Mark Miller, a long-time friend of Prime Minister Trudeau, is not going to be in this new cabinet. Sean Eve DeClo,los, a longtime cabinet minister, a bunch of other names who have sort of been part of the Trudeau experience since the very beginning are all going to be leaving.

And then I think he's also going to, you know, Mark Carney is just going to have a different focus than Justin Trudeau ever did. It's clearly all going to be about Donald Trump, but also about the economy more specifically and more broadly. You know, trying to get at, you know, we're hearing about trips to Europe to shore up trade connections. You know, he's already toured a steel mill. Those sorts of things. He's really portraying an economic-focused message. Steve, what do you think he has to do? He has to do more than say this Mark Carney

saying that I'm not Trudeau. What does he have to do to really convince Canadians that he is an agent of change? You know what I'm looking for today, Mark, is a version of Justin Trudeau's famous quip after he formed his first cabinet in 2015 and it was gender balanced and he was asked by a reporter, you know, why does this matter? And the prime minister then said, because it's 2015. And that was this phrase that sort of came to define

a lot of the Trudeau era, doing things for a broader sort of progressive social purpose to lift up Canadians, right? We're talking about childcare, dental care, pharma, these were big things. What is Mark Tarney's tagline? What is the brand that he wants to bring forward to Canadians?

Because that brand will need to be exceptionally different from Justin Trudeau's brand if he wants Canadians to believe that he is not just, as a conservative, keeps trying to argue, quote-unquote, just like Justin. Michael, give us the view from Quebec, as you always do. Polls suggest that he's getting traction in Quebec, which is surprising, I think, to some liberals there.

What's working for Carney in Quebec? The ballot box question in the upcoming election will be who do you want opposite Donald Trump to defend Canada? And he has the resume at least to be able to say I'm the best candidate for that job. And that's what drives, and I don't think only in Quebec, I think it drives throughout Canada. throughout Canada, we are electing someone who will take care of a crisis that is started by the US administration. And that's what Quebecers are looking for with Mr. Carney, and which makes them accept

a certain number of things, including his very rusty French and stuff like that. Yeah, well, tell us about that. His French is, car si, comme ça. And that always matters. I mean, that always matters in every election. And yet this election doesn't seem like every election. So Michel, is that going to be a real liability for Mark Carney? I don't think so, because first of all, his French is rusty.

It's not inexistent. He's not learning French. He's relearning French. And it's very transparent in interviews he gives. He says, look, when I was at the Bank of Canada, I insisted that all my meetings were in French. I remember seeing him when I was on the Hill testifying before parliamentary committees, and his French was nearly perfect. Like he says, it's been 17 years since I have not spoken French. I have to get it back. And you can see a progress

interview after interview. It's not perfect, obviously, but he can make himself understood. It's not as if, you know, there are other leaders who are literally incapable of speaking French. He's not like that, and his French will get better with time. And Stephanie, there's no doubt Mark Carney, great CV in a great suit. I mean, that's for sure. We can see this guy. He's impressive on that level. But can he do retail politics and does that matter in this election? We don't know if he can do retail politics. Signs, I mean, one element of retail politics is accountability, right? Being willing to be challenged in public by the media. And we haven't certainly haven't had any of that since he became prime minister and that the media engagements he had throughout the leadership campaign often ended with everybody

scrambling for clarification or, you know, him and the leader having to say, oh, I didn't mean what I just said. So that's not a great sign. Can he survive? What does that suggest to you? It suggests that senior executives are often used to surrounding themselves by people who will agree with what they say, and they don't like being challenged.

Can Mr. Carney handle being challenged? Can he handle it by the press? Can he handle it internally from caucus or those people around him? Can he handle it on a debate stage and cut and parry and thrust with all of the leaders of the opposition parties who will be gunning for him significantly in this election? And, you know, there were MPs who said at the outset of the leadership race, the question on some of their minds was can he work a wharf? You know, can he do the thing where he went to the Hamilton steel mill and engage and connect with Canadians?

He hasn't had the opportunity to do a lot of that in his life, never mind in the last few weeks. So it might be a work in progress. Maybe it's a rusty skill just like his French that he can figure out, but maybe it ultimately won't matter because how he portrays himself, and I'm sure what would be an onslaught of advertising, the persona that he puts forward there, perhaps that will be enough to convince Canadians that this is the guy they'd like to have leading the country. Ryan, this week Carney posted a video of himself at a breakfast meeting

with Doug Ford, the newly re-elected progressive conservative premier of Ontario. What does that suggest to you about how Carney is positioning himself? You know, I think Carney is positioning himself and I think this has a lot to do, you know, with the success he's had, which has surprised frankly even some liberals that he's polling so well. But he has portrayed himself as the guy to take on Donald Trump and that is really the only thing Canadians are casting for right now when they're looking at this election. And so meeting with Doug Ford, the other guy who's been taking on Donald Trump, who's really

led that charge, frankly, on a public level, almost more so than the Trudeau government, I think was a move designed to show that now he's joining the team. Carney is getting geared up for the fight. I think as much as Doug Ford is a conservative, he has governed as a... probably wouldn't like this description, but almost as a red Tory. He's been a very centrist conservative. There's a lot of gap between Doug Ford conservatives and Pierre Poliev conservatives. And with Mark Carney sort of governing as a centrist liberal, I think there's going to be a lot of areas of agreement between Mark Carney

and Doug Ford. Ryan, do you think, you know, he is from the West, Carney. Do you think he can get any traction in the West? No, is the short answer. He is from the West, Carney. Do you think he can get any traction in the West? No, is the short answer. That's not going to change then. Yeah, I don't think. You know, maybe a few seats in Edmonton and Calgary

in a best hope become available. But I think the four seats in Alberta that Justin Trudeau won in 2015 are about the best the Liberal Party could hope for there. I'm Nicola Coughlin and this is history's youngest heroes, Terry Fox's Marathon of Hope. I think of home a lot. I think of running into Vancouver and running into where I'm going to finish on the ocean

and all you got to do is take another step and keep on going. He planned to run 5,300 miles across the second largest country in the world. Makes you believe in the human race again. Join me, Nicola Coughlin, for history's youngest heroes wherever you get your podcasts. Michelle, let's get back to Quebec and how with Donald Trump, the terrorists, the talk of annexation, how has that changed the political landscape in Quebec? And I'm thinking specifically of the Bloc Québécois, who, you know, for years, their whole existence is painting Ottawa out to be the adversary. Suddenly, there is a much

bigger adversary in the room, and that is Donald Trump. How has that changed the conversation in Quebec? Pete Well, Brian Mulroney used to say, don't compare me with the almighty, compare me to the leader of the opposition. And as long as the ballot box question remains, who do you want to send against Donald Trump? That plays for Mr. Kearney and doesn't play well for the Bloc. Six months ago, the Bloc was thinking of itself as being perhaps the official opposition in the next parliament. This obviously, there's no talk of that anymore. And they know at the Bloc Québécois that they will lose marginal seats. They don't

think they will get back, every member of caucus will get back to Ottawa after this election precisely because the election is not on a field that is that is Important to the Bloc Québécois the issues of the Bloc Québécois are not important this year What is important is the trade war and that is does not play well for the Bloc. This being said They they are well, they have well entrenched MPs in many regions and they will come back with a substantial caucus but certainly not the size of the caucus they have now and nobody talks about official opposition anymore.

Michael, Pierre Poilier, the conservative leader has been making ads specifically targeted for Quebec in the last few weeks. How are they playing out in Le Bel Provence? People are very curious about Mr. Poitiers because he is a Tory that speaks fluent French and his wife's from Montreal and all that. And he plays that very, very often. But he is a conservative. He's

very conservative by Quebec standards. And stuff that work in the alt-right movement, the Bitcoin, stuff like that, do not connect with Quebecers. That's his main problem. He could make inroads if it was, do you hate Justin Trudeau? But he will not make inroads by using the more extreme right that he has been using. And a lot of people, it will be said by other parties, they will say it's unfair, but the opposition will say it is sort of a mini Trump. Well, and that's another question. Carney can be running on a campaign saying,

I'm not Trudeau, Poliev can be running on a campaign saying, I'm not Trump. In Poliev's ads, he said, some people think my style is too direct, but he doesn't want to be cute. So Stephanie, what do you think that that that Polly have what has to be his message right now? He's seen his lead in the polls, you know, almost disappear. What does he have to do to turn things around for the conservatives?

He, he, you know, the ballot box question, you're going to see voters going in on voting day and looking down at the ballot box and saying, who do I pick that sends a message to Donald Trump? Right? This is a national election we are having. It's a national question. Obviously, obviously, Mr. Poliev has to make it so that people pick him. And one of the ways his team is sending signals that they would like to try and do that is

to bring all of this back down to what's normally a ballot box question. Is my life today better off than it was the last time I voted? And if the answer is no, why would you give that person your vote again? And some of that is, you know, the Poliev argument that one of the reasons Donald Trump sees this country as being so weak is because of the actions of previous governments and Mr. Poliev's case to voters is only he can turn it around. The challenge of course is, you know, one conservative put it to me the other day, right now we are wrapped in this patriotic moment in time and the colors of the Canadian flag are red, you know, and it is difficult for Mr. Poliev,

and perhaps his team will acknowledge he was a bit late off the mark to meet the moment, that Canada first message, that patriotic thing that we've all seized on. Do people believe him? Is he believable in that line of thought? And that's something he's gonna have to convince people that yes He is believable. Yes, he means it and no he is not like Donald Trump

yeah, I guess in some ways that it seems like it's that this election could be set up as a referendum on leadership and And leadership styles and who is as we've mentioned before who's best a position to take on Trump So my question, where does this leave the NDP? Ryan, do you want to weigh in on that? Yeah, I mean, I think it leaves them very stuck. Frankly, you know, everything that we've been seeing over the last two years has been narrowing their opportunities. So when the conservatives were up,

there are a lot of conservative NDP splits in this country, places where the liberals aren't a factor. Now that the liberals are rising, there's a lot of liberal NDP splits where the NDP hoped they would do better, where I don't know that they will. So it really leaves that party squeezed. I think there's a sentiment that you don't want to send, you potentially don't want to send a minority government to Ottawa in this moment,

because you want someone to have a strong mandate to be able to combat Trump. And the NDP are not going to be a majority government, suddenly. So I think it's a challenge for them. And I think staying relevant and trying to convince people that they should be part of the mix is gonna be their real challenge this time out.

Stephanie, I've noticed that Carney, at least from what we've heard, has been reportable that the first thing he's gonna be doing is travel to London and Paris next week as Canada's prime minister. Kind of interesting that the first trip he's making is not to the US and not a meeting with Donald Trump. Why this idea of heading that the first trip he's making is not to the US and not a meeting with Donald Trump.

Why this idea of heading to Europe first? One of the things that Mr. Carney campaigned on during the leadership race was a retrenched focus on the Canadian economy, diversifying our markets, strengthening our position globally. So what better way to do that than to go meet right away with the folks who would help with that, right? European leaders. And to sort of forge some kind of global common front against Trump. I think some of that work has already been underway

amongst global leaders. The G7 this week in Quebec is an interesting moment in time for that effort. And it signals Mr. Carney as a statesman in a way that going down to Mar-a-Lago or to the White House to see the president, you know, there's an ickiness factor there, I think there was, you know, or he being a supplicant to the president, as opposed to meeting him on even turf, for Mr. Carney to make become an emissary, go to Europe, reconnect with some of his old colleagues in the UK.

He knows Macron as well in France. And so it's signal, it's signaling. The three of you are very smart when it comes to politics. So I'm going to throw you a little trivia question. Who served the shortest term as Prime Minister in Canadian history? Charles Tupper. Ryan, you nailed it. Charles Tupper in 1896. He was chosen to replace Mackenzie Bowell. He lasted 68 days in office. He was then put up as the candidate to lead the Conservatives in that election. They lost that election. So

my question to you, well we'll start with you Michelle, when do you think this election will be called? Within two weeks. Wow, that fast. That fast. I think he has no, there's nothing for Mr. Kearney in waiting longer. And like Stephanie says, it's a good thing that he goes to London and Paris. Then he comes back and then I think we could have an election call even next week. Ryan, what do you think? I think we will be in the polls before next Sunday. I don't think Mr. Carney is interested in going back to Parliament. And that's the timeline. March the 24th is when the House is supposed to resume

and I would bet it doesn't. And why do you think he needs to move that quickly? You know, I think there's two things. One, he's got a serious amount of momentum coming out of the leadership race. He likes where the polls are. I think he wants to have this election on his terms rather than the opposition parties. And again, I think he wants to, I think he wants as probably all of the political leaders want to have this settled so that at least someone has a strong mandate to deal with Donald Trump.

Stephanie, last word to you. I'm just about out of time with 30 seconds here. What's your view of when the election will be? I agree with Ryan that it'll be called by next Sunday, because the House doesn't want to come back. And the other advantage to that, the conservatives have $41 million in the bank, and they have been spending it willy nilly

to try and define Mr. Carney. The minute the election kicks in, so do election spending limit rules. The Conservatives will be limited on how they can attack and define Mr. Carney. The playing field evens in that respect. And so for the Liberals who, as Ryan said, would like to define him and not have to buy into the opposition definition, time is of the essence. Well, interesting times and you've helped us navigate that.

Ryan and Stephanie, Michelle, Oger, thank you so much. Bye bye. Thank you. Ryan Tumley is a political reporter with the Toronto Star. Stephanie Levitz is a senior reporter with the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau. And Michelle Auger is a political columnist at La Presse and commentator for Radio Canada.