The Current - Mr Carney goes to Beijing

Episode Date: January 12, 2026

We check in with the National Affairs Panel on the eve of the Prime Minister's visit to China. After a dramatic week when the U.S. captured the leader of Venezuela and made a series of threats against countries across the Western Hemisphere, should Canada risk warmer ties with authoritarian regimes?

What does it take to become one of the most popular mystery novelists in the world? For Louise Penny, that road wasn't easy, but she got through it with the support of her husband and a lot of humor. When I was like five years into writer's block, and now he's still supporting me, right? He stopped asking me how the book was going. It was a little bit like my mother when I reached 35, 36 and wasn't married yet. And she stopped asking. Check out that conversation on bookends with me, Matea Roach, wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC podcast.

Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. We are not even two weeks into 2026, and it's already been a lot. The United States has deposed the president of Venezuela, captured a Russian oil tanker, threatened the leaders of several Latin American nations, and refused to rule out using military force to take over Greenland. Canada's Prime Minister is re-engaging with China. Pierre Pahliav is set to face his party in a leadership review and our National Affairs panel is back to help make sense of all the news coming our way.

Rosemary Barton is the CBC's chief political correspondent. Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter in the Globe and Mail's Ottawa Bureau, and Ryan Tummelty is a parliamentary reporter with Toronto Star. Good morning, everyone. Happy New Year. Happy Good morning. We can still say Happy New Year on the 12th of January because I haven't talked to you yet. We are going to get to the drama of last week.

There was a lot of drama last week. But let's begin with the prime minister, Mark Carney, who heads to China to meet with Xi Jinping in Beijing this week. Ryan, how significant is this trip? It's significant. I mean, this is a country that kidnapped two of our citizens not seven years ago. So this is a big reset in a relationship that had grown quite cold. I think Canadians are going to be watching it very close.

closely. Obviously, there's a lot of interest in a new set of trading partners, given our deteriorating relationship with the United States. But, you know, I think Canadians still remember Michael Koevrigan, Michael Spaffor, and they, you know, are not exactly warm to China. So, exactly how this relationship is handled is going to matter. It's going to matter internationally. But I think it's also going to matter here at home. Steph, it's the prime minister himself who is going. How do you understand the approach that Mark Carney is trying to take because it's a diplomatic reset. But in some ways, it's also a bit of a business trip, right?

Mr. Carney is a pragmatist first and foremost, right? He is a business leader who happens to also be running a G7 country. And he's looking to where the markets are and he's looking to where the money is and what he can maybe achieve for Canadian exports. I think the challenge here, of course, and I'm sure we're going to talk about it, is that we have a bit of a trade dispute going on with China at this moment as well, right? we've put tariffs on their EVs. In return, they are walloping our agriculture sector, everything from canola to seafood with major tariffs.

And that, as Mr. Carney pledges to diversify our markets, that's an irritant that needs to be dealt with, but not one without risk. Because one of the reasons we have those tariffs on Chinese EVs is because of the Americans asked us to put them there. And so how Mr. Carney navigates that and threads the needle, you know, this, it's early days yet, of course, Matt, but this to me feels like an emerging theme for Mr. Carney's leadership, right, threading this needle. We are squeezed. We are so squeezed between America and the rest of the world and the lot of the current Canadian Prime Minister is to figure out how not to get squeezed to death. Rosie, how does he go about threading that needle? Already you have Doug Ford in Ontario saying, don't you dare take those tariffs off of Chinese EVs. We need to protect our auto sector here. If they want to make the cars in Ontario well and good,

but we don't want to be buying cars made in China. So how does the Prime Minister go about threading that needle? Yeah, and then you've got Scott Moe in Saskatchewan saying, dump those tariffs because I have a whole province that's suffering. I talked to a canola farmer on Friday, who was about to lose half a million dollars on his family farm because these tariffs are in place and he can't go on. I'm not sure how he threads it.

Because, you know, on the one hand, is he trying to appease, or make sure he doesn't further irritate Donald Trump by getting rid of those tariffs. Or on the other hand, is he trying to find a way for Canada to not only diversify trade, but to succeed in a world where increasingly people are looking past or beyond the United States. It is a very challenging position for him to be in. And yet, he seems quite committed to finding these other partners. He's not only going to China.

He's also going to Davos. He's going to Qatar. He was last week in Europe, again, trying to shore up that relationship with the EU, mostly from a security perspective. These are, as Steph said, pragmatic responses to the craziness that we find ourselves in two weeks into the year.

Does he have to come back, and we'll get to the craziness in a moment, but does he have to come back with something meaningful to show? I mean, the opposition will say, what have you, you're traveling around? What have you brought back to Canada? What does he need to show that he's bringing back, Rosie?

Yeah, I mean, I think that he does. I don't know that it's necessarily going to be getting rid of the tariffs and a deal with China. But he does need to increasingly so, I think, too, the further we get into his time as Prime Minister show results. And you can't just travel the world. You do have to actually show that something is paying off for Canadians. I think Mr. Carney understands that. I'm not sure though that that he understands how to make that connection for Canadians between here are the things that I got on my trip and here's how it's going to improve your

life because that's what Canadians want to know right? It is the 12th of January. There's a cartoon that was circulating around on social media saying that people are asking for precedented times, not unprecedented times because we've had enough already. You have had the United States taking an aggressive posture in the Western Hemisphere, including seizing and jailing the leader of Venezuela. Have a listen to what the prime minister said about that last week. The removal of an illegitimate, corrupt, repressive government or leader, Mr. Maduro, is welcome news.

It creates the possibility for democratic transition in Venezuela. We very much support that. We're available to support that. And we urge that to happen. in a peaceful transition. And that's best prospect for greater prosperity for the Venezuelan people, and to respect the will of the Venezuelan people. Steph, back to threading your needle.

What struck you about Mark Carney's response to what the United States did in Venezuela? The passive voice, the removal. Who did that removal, Mr. Carney? And how do we feel about that? And I say I use we as like the royal we. The question of, you know, Mr. Carney's pragmatism, his commitment to multilateral, his repeated references over time to the international world order being, you know, precarious at best, but Canada's ongoing commitment to the rule of law. All of that is at play here with Venezuela.

And the fact that he did not mention the challenge Mr. Trump's actions posed to all of those things is interesting to me. And it goes back to, again, this idea, I think, you know, globally there's a lot of, I don't know, tentative relief that Mr. Maduro is gone, but of course his government has not been replaced as a whole. But the manner with which that happened, people are shying away from grappling with that and not just in terms of criticizing Mr. Trump, but what it again signals about this collapsing world order and how worried we should be about what's about to replace it. Rosie, do you want to pick up on that just in terms of what Mark Carney is or is not trying to say. I mean, you have this, you have Donald Trump also, you know, making threats against leaders in

Cuba, in Mexico, in Colombia. He also says he wouldn't rule out military force to take Greenland. What does Mark Carney need to say? What is he saying? And is that enough, do you think? Yeah, I mean, again, I do think this is a challenging moment, as Mark Carney would describe it, a hinge moment for the world, right? This is about trying to make sure that you have a challenging moment. functional relationship with the United States because of all the reasons that we know, geography and

how dependent we are on them economically. But also to understand that it's possible that things are completely or about to completely change. I mean, this is not just about Venezuela and Greenland. This is about now,

I think, a very clear picture that this U.S. administration is putting forward about the Western Hemisphere. And not to overstate that, but I think it now becomes a question of where does Canada sit in that vision of the Western Hemisphere? I'm not saying we're going to be invaded

or that our sovereignty is up for grabs, but it increasingly puts that notion, I think, in the forefront. And Mr. Carney needs to find a way to, yeah, again, not anger or irritate the U.S. President because we know that he watches what world leaders say about him, but to make sure that we don't find ourselves literally caught in the middle of something between South America and Greenland, and here we are, you know, sort of waiting for something to happen. I'm not sure what the answer is beyond trying to find other security allies.

But I think that it is a real threat, and I think it is a real concern for this government and this, partners. Things at the precinct haven't been the same. I know we've been understaffed since Ellis left, but maybe today things will turn around. But now, the most unlikely fare is back on the case. Hey, Max. You miss me?

The dream team is back together. Yeah, I guess it is. And on each other's. Are you going to be able to keep it together on this one? I am nothing, if not profesh. Wildcards. New season. Watch free on CBC Jam.

Ryan, on the other side of it, you have the conservative leader, Pierre Polyev, who tweeted, and these are his words, congratulations to President Trump on successfully arresting narco-terrorist and socialist dictator Nicholas Maduro, who should live out his days in prison. What did you make of Mr. Poliyev's comments? You know, I think perhaps saying congratulations to President Trump, regardless of what President Trump has done, is a move that might rub Canadians the wrong way, might be the wrong message to say. send out for the Canadians who are maybe a little wary of the degree to which Pierre Polyev and Donald Trump seem alike, even though they're very much different. But I think you're also seeing that, you know, Pierre Polyev is in two games right now. He is thinking about the general

election, absolutely. But his immediate concern is the leadership review in a few weeks' time. And, you know, the conservative supporters who are going to vote in that leadership review support Donald Trump more than any other Canadians. And I think most of them, you know, we haven't seen real polling on this, but I don't think any of them have any concerns about the global rule-based international order when it comes to deposing dictators like this. Do you think it matters, though? I mean, to your point, he is also thinking about a general election if and when that comes. it will come at some point in time. Will a tweet like that hang around? I think it's all about, it's not about one individual tweet.

It's about something that builds over time, this perception that there isn't enough daylight between Pierre Pahliav and Donald Trump. And I actually think it will be really interesting to see which Pierre Pahliav we have in February. Does he start to make a move anywhere towards the center? That is not what I expect of Pierre Palliope. Pierre Polyeff has been one kind of politician his entire two-decade long career now.

So I don't really expect to pivot at the same time. I know he wants to win a general election. I know he knows this is his last shot at that. You know, there are no third act in Canadian politics. So I think it'll be really telling to see what kind of performance he puts on, what kind of persona he puts on after that leadership review is over. Seth, do you want to pick up on that, particularly the idea that there is a constituency, people talk about this, that Pierre Polyev would need to win over if he wants to win a general election.

And whether a comment like that would welcome that constituency in or perhaps give them some pause. I mean, I think it's also important to note here that Mr. Polyeuf has a personal connection to the cause of the Venezuelan people. And there is, in his statement, baked in his, the fact that he's, the fact that he's, the fact that, that his wife is Venezuelan, the fact that, you know, her family left Venezuela to build a better life in Canada, obviously many years before the Maduro regime. But sometimes, you know, it's easy to, oh, this is strategy, oh, this or sometimes it's just who he is, right? This is Mr. Polia of believing something sincerely and saying it out loud. So the question becomes, is, is that a strategy that will help him form government in several months or years hence? Or is it a

detriment. I suppose that depends on a number of factors where we are. It remains true that the issue set that saw the conservatives win as many votes as they did, win as many seats as they did in April, remains salient. You know, affordability is still people's number one concern. The challenge for the conservatives with Mr. Polyev at the helm is the disparity between how people view Mr. Carney and how much they like him and how people view Mr. Polyev and how they don't. So, he can have sincerely held beliefs, he can express those beliefs, but is there a way to counterbalance that? Is it about finding more people on his team and pushing them forward to show, hey, it's not just me, it's more people. Because if he tries to change his personality or his affect, then he risks being labeled a hypocrite, and that's pretty fatal in politics.

Rosie, Pierre Pollyev will face his party at the Leadership Review in just a couple of weeks' time. What are you going to be watching for from that convention? I don't actually think it's the convention, to be frank. Because I don't think anyone doubts that he will be okay. He will survive this review, whether the numbers in the 80s or 90s, I don't know. That high. 80s or 90s? Well, I don't know.

Like, listen, he needs to get in the 80s, I would suggest. I think if he gets under the 80s, then we're in a different ballgame, frankly. But to me, it's less what happens there. And to that end, I think certainly the. party is trying to make it less about that convention and the number, because we're, we're expecting to get it in the wee hours, I think, of the Friday, of Friday into Saturday. So they're trying to downplay a little bit what the number is. But here's what I mean. He can come out of that, you know, with the number and the speech and feeling good about the people who support

him. To me, it's what happened after, as, as Ryan said. It's then what does people, Pierre Pueleev do to assure, A, that he doesn't lose more MPs to the Liberal Party, which is still a real and present danger. And B, what is he doing to make sure that Canadians know who he is and like him a little bit more? He doesn't need all of us to like him, but he needs a little bit, a few more Canadians to like him and believe that he could govern in this moment. And I think that is the challenge. And that's sort of what that tweet also speaks to. Was that the tweet of a future prime minister? Not sure.

Was that, but was that to Steph's point, someone who feels very passionately about the issue? Yes. And sometimes those things can align and sometimes they don't. So to me, it's less about the review, although I acknowledge if it all goes to hell at a handpasket, it's going to be a problem for him. But it's more about what he does after

and how his own caucus respond and how he can convince Canadian finally, for the last time, as Ryan says, that he is Prime Minister material and that there is a way to trust him and like him as a leader. Ryan, what are you watching for when it comes to, I mean, there's these continuing rumors that there might be more MPs crossing the floor to the liberals. Lori Idlotte, NDP MP put out comment yesterday, or not yesterday last week, I guess, speaking with the CBC saying that she wasn't interested in crossing the floor to the liberals at this point. that suggests that perhaps there might be another point in which she might consider that. What are you watching for, Ryan? Yeah, you know, I think the question of the floor crossers is actually kind of hanging over everything right now

because it means a lot to the conservatives and it means something significant to Pierre Polyev's leadership. But it also changes everything that the liberals can do. You know, Mark Carney brought in a budget and has governed so far as someone who is thinking long term. There haven't been a lot of shiny bubbles. There haven't been a lot of quick wins. He's talking about long-term economic transformation. And you don't get any results of that in the short term. You don't get anything you can go to voters with this summer and say, look, I did all these things. I signed these laws. Because Canadians may not see any real improvement from those

things. They may not see any shovels in the ground for, you know, another year. So I think You know, if Canadians, it will really impact, you know, our next three years if there is someone waiting in the wings ready to cross the floor some point later this month. And like Rosie, I've heard lots of rumors that there might be. And certainly at this point was quite telling in that remark. Steph, last minute or so to you. I mean, if you take a look at this, the liberals are in spitting distance from a majority, but they don't have it yet. What is that going to mean for politics? because I don't ask you to pull out the crystal ball,

but what is that going to mean for politics in the next few months? I mean, I think it's going to mean if, you know, throw ahead your next segment, Matt, how do we make New Year's resolution stick? All of these politicians are going to have to get on a treadmill, watch whatever they'd like to watch, and figure out a way to deliver. And that, I think that's the big, you know,

the big question for 2026, absent all of the geopolitical chaos we find ourselves in, right? It's about delivery. And it's about Mr. Carney finding a way to deliver on his promises. It's Mr. Pahlia finding a way to deliver on the idea that he could replace Mr. Kearney. It's New Democrats. We haven't really talked about them too much, finding a way to deliver on putting together a party that has some kind of meaningful proposition to voters. And in and all of that, you have all of the domestic political tensions, separatist movements in Alberta, separatist movements in Quebec. We've got to figure out how to deliver as a country at an unprecedented time as much as we'd all like to go back to precedent at times.

If your New Year's resolutions, political reporters, was to relax, spend more time with your families, turn things, I wish you the best of luck, because that's not going to happen. Not going to happen. Good to have the band back together at the beginning of January. Thank you all. We'll talk again soon. Take care. Rose Murray Barton is the CBC's Chief Political Correspondent. Stephanie Levitt's senior reporter with the Globe and Males Ottawa Bureau and Ryan Tomlety, a parliamentary reporter with the Toronto Star. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca slash podcasts.