The Current - NAP: Politics and pipelines

Episode Date: October 15, 2025

Our national affairs panel weighs in on the biggest political stories of the day. We assess the fallout from Mark Carney's latest visit to Washington D.C., and why an abandoned pipeline project may be back on the table. Plus, by the Grey Cup weekend we are expecting a federal budget, and another round of "nation-building" projects. Will one of them be the pipeline Alberta is pushing for and that coastal First Nations say is a non-starter? And when was the last time the Grey Cup was such a big deal on the political calendar? We break it all down with Stephanie Levitz of the Globe and Mail, Rob Shaw of CHEK News in B.C., and Jason Markusoff of CBC Calgary.

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and a digital business library full of on-demand resources. Benefit together with Chambers Plan. Learn more at hellochambers.ca. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. You are a transformative present, unprecedented commitments of NATO partners to defense spending, peace from India, Pakistan, through to Azerbaijan, Armenia, disabling Iran as a force of terror. And now, and I'm running out of time, but this is many respects the most important.

The merger of Canada and the United States. That wasn't where I was going. It's always risky going into the Oval Office with Donald Trump when the cameras are rolling, but the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, did it again last week, comes as the countdown is on to a long-delayed federal budget and a Canadian fall tradition that's getting more attention than usual at this time of the year. This is the first tranche of projects. We expect the second tranche of projects to be announced by the Grey Cup.

Well, I can tell you that we are hoping to have some kind of agreement with the Prime Minister. by Grey Cup. So what state is Gray Cup at? On? Anybody. When the Prime Minister said, I was like, it's November 16, guys. November 16th, that's the Grey Cup.

With us to catch us up on the political footballs of the season, our National Affairs panel. Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter in the Globe and Males Ottawa Bureau. Rob Shaw is a political correspondent for C-H-E-K news, Czech News in Victoria. And join us from Calgary. The CBC's Jason Markisoff.

Good morning, everyone. Good morning. Good morning. Stephanie, there is still no deal with the Americans, but what is your sense as to what was actually achieved in Washington? My sense is progress was achieved that Mr. Trump and Mr. Carney seemed to be inching ever closer to maybe being on the same page about a number of things. I mean, it's become, I think, clear with the president that there are certain elements of these tariffs, especially the Section 232 ones, the ones known as the national security tariffs, aluminum steel auto, that Mr. Trump has a point about them, but the knock on effects of that on Americans is punitive to the degree that maybe some wiggle room is possible. Certainly,

at least, you know, it didn't come out any worse. And in the case of Canada dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump, in that moment in time, we didn't come out chastened with our tail between our legs, even as he persists with tariffs on things like furniture and lumber. What do you think, just briefly, what do you think, Steph, story that Mark Carney is telling right now is? He's still, I think, trying to go with the narrative that God am elected. I can do this. Give me time. And they're, you know, by slow, incremental, these visits to the White House, having, you know, the clerk of the privy council is still down there talking, that they're

working on this and that Mr. Carney keeps trying to say, you will judge me by my results. And so everyone keeps waiting for those results. Rob, you're in B.C. is getting hammered with these new soft. Wood tariffs, what 10% on lumber, 25% on wood products. Yesterday, the Premier David Eby said that lumber provides a greater direct contribution to Canada's GDP than auto parts and steel and that that sector is facing an existential threat. Is the sense in your province that BC and the industries there that he mentioned

softwood lumber particularly aren't getting the attention that they deserve? There is that. Yes, there's that frustration watching the prime minister go to the White House and everyone's talking about aluminum and steel tariffs. Everyone's talking about the Ontario auto industry and nobody's talking about softwood lumber to the extent that BC thinks it should be raised. And you do hear from other premiers. You know, you heard Saskatchewan's premiers say, well, maybe we should start doing things like, you know, supporting other provinces, economies and not throwing them under the bus so that Ontario can keep its auto sector going, raising that prospect of, you know, getting rid of the Chinese

EV tariff that has caused China to come back with tariffs on things like canola. So you see all these other provinces going, hey, you know, make sure you mention our issues. And softwood is one of those ones that is not directly connected in the sense of the same national security issues that Stephanie was outlining. But boy, is it hammering one of BC's biggest economic drivers? The prime minister has promised what, $1.2 billion in support for the softwood lumber industry, although people in that industry say the check has yet to arrive. What is David E.B. getting at?

I mean, one of the things he said is, you know, because Ottawa is in Ontario, maybe it's more top of mind for people than B.C. Yeah, he is making that point. It's expedient to him to make that point because he's in his own sort of political quagmire here. And it's always easy to punch the prime minister in the face for polling numbers, especially in British Columbia. But, like, I think there is a feeling in British Columbia. that, you know, softwood is just not on the table,

that it is a problem that keeps getting worse. 45% now in accumulated duties and tariffs with the most recent 10%. And no end in sight, a willingness from Canadian softwood producers to explore the quota system and give the Americans what they want there and we can't make progress. So a frustration from BC for sure. Jason Marcusoff, one detail that did come out of this meeting between the president and the prime minister is apparently

that Mark Carney pitched Donald Trump on reviving Keystone XL. This would carry oil from Alberta to the United States. What do you make of that? Surprised that this pipeline seems to be not dead, actually. I think a lot of us in Alberta were surprised that we had to excavate our old Keystone XL pipeline files from, you know, that we put away four years ago, put away, you know, brought out eight years ago when Trump first came in, a dusted 10 years ago. It's a bit of a deja vu thing, but it really speaks to how different the tariff situation is with Alberta's primary export, Canada's largest export to the U.S., and that is oil and gas products while there is anxiety and softwood lumber.

And Alberta has some softwood lumber. Well, certainly there is anxiety where the tariffs are in steel, aluminum, and auto. Oil and gas exports are not tariffed. is sort of living footloose and tariff-free in this trying time. And Daniel Smith has been, when she's gone down to the States, the Alberta Premier has gone down to the States, she's promoted selling more oil. And it is very intriguing the prospect that while Donald Trump sees natural conflict,

as he said in the Oval Office, with Canada on trade, he doesn't see that kind of continental North American auto-packed or other trading markets like NAFTA and Kuzma, he may see that with Alberta. He may see it as a benefit for energy security for the United States to import oil from Canada. It would be very different cross-bite. And the other interesting thing about it is that

should that be the concession Canada gives up, is selling more oil rather than, say, making concessions on further on auto or cultural product or dairy, say, for selling more oil. oil and approving a pipeline to be the thing that Canada might have to give up in order to alleviate tariffs for aluminum and steel. That, you know, a lot of people argue that's a win, win, win. Steph, how do you understand why Mark Carney would pitch a project like this, particularly

at a time when the talk is about diversification, aren't we supposed to be looking beyond the United States? You could argue that to pitch Keystone is to make a political point, is to say to the Americans, hey, man, we have tried to do business with you again and again and again, because let's not forget the Canadian governments of all stripes were largely in favor of Keystone. It was the Americans who killed it in the end. And so to say to Donald Trump, you know, there are things that you can do that would be good for you, as Jason points out, that that would be beneficial to the greater North American economy. It's a win-win. And this one wasn't our fault. And so to say, hey, we're willing

partners to help you out. It's a political move. I think also in this context of the pipeline argument, right this idea that we cannot possibly have a major national project in this country that does not include the word pipeline and here's a pipeline here's one that's already been approved here's one that everybody is supportive of so you know does mark kearney get to edge around politically this potential quagmire he's walking into of having to be a referee between Alberta premier daniel smith and british columbia premier david eby over that pipeline idea and all the potential you know fighting that that might bring and just go back to a pipeline that everyone seemed to like in the first place. Let's talk about that fighting. The idea of building a pipeline to the West Coast has the premiers of British Columbia and Alberta, having a very public disagreement about whether this should be on the list of national projects that have a national interest in our hearts. Let's have a listen to what these two premiers have had to say.

The premier of British Columbia is behaving in a way that's unconstitutional and un-Canadian. And the reason why we have ports and other cross-border infrastructure in the hands of the federal government, is that the parochial interests of an individual province can't stop development. The bottom line is, I just can't sit by and have her say that Canada doesn't work unless she gets her way on this pipeline, which bottom line means that Canadians from coast to coast to coast need to pay tens of billions of dollars to Alberta to deliver another publicly funded pipeline when they're not even using the pipeline we bought them last time. Chambers Plan is benefits with benefits.

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Rob Shaw, where is that coming from, from David E. Do you think? Well, look, he's, you know, our premier in British Columbia is pushing the bounds of his coalition in areas of mining for critical minerals and areas of natural gas for LNG. And he has a lot of environmentalists in his tent. And he has a view that he cannot approve or get behind or endorse an oil pipeline to the coast. And his view is that there's a lot of coastal first nations willing to do business with him on his projects that would throw their hands up and say, We don't want to do business with anyone if Alberta rams through a pipeline. Look, we've been here before, right? I mean, we have been British Columbia versus Alberta in Northern Gateway, in Trans Mountain, in other pipeline projects. We know that BC can say that it will use every tool in its toolbox to fight.

And as Alberta Premier Rachel Notley once said, it's a Fisher Price toolbox. There's not much the province can do legally or it can't withhold permits. It just can't, right? It can wage a PR war. It can increase the risk to any private proponent that wants to get on board with the Alberta Premier eventually that they're going to have to fight David Eby in public, who's a very skilled orator. But you can't block it. You can just make it really uncomfortable for everyone. That seems to be where he's going. Daniel Smith has said that David E.B. is out of touch with public opinion on this. Do you think, Rob, that he is? We yesterday, or last week, pardon me, when we were talking about this, and it came up again

yesterday in conversation. We were looking at polling that suggests that maybe the public sentiment has changed. Maybe a little bit. But the argument in British Columbia, through premiers of different stripes over the years, has been, you know, this province would accept all the risks and get none of the benefit for a pipeline. And I know Christy Clark, who's a former liberal premier here, tried to take a different approach. He said, here's our listed demands on Northern Gateway. We need money provincially for this pipeline. If it's going to come through, we need more federal support for Coast Guard, for spill response, world class. You hit those markers, maybe you get our support.

And that might help with public opinion, but Premier EB hasn't done any of that. He's just said no, and that makes it harder to kind of gauge. Jason, what is Daniel Smith's game here? What is she trying to do, do you think? Pipeline is, you know, tends to be one of the biggest political wins and economic wins for where Alberta, she has set forth an ambition to buck a lot of the demand supply curves of oil and gas in this country. And she, her ambition is to double Alberta's oil and gas production over time. And you're not going to expand Alberta's oil and gas production if you're not

getting, finding more ways to get that product to market. So she has made a pipeline, you know, the big white whale of her, her government doing what other premiers since. the Trans Mountain Pipeline and which I'm notly have not been able to. And she, you know, this is one of her big ways to stick it to Ottawa. She keeps talking about what she calls the nine bad laws, including the tanker band to the West Coast, the Impact Assessment Act that approves oil and gas projects, the emissions cap, net zero limit, almost anything that the federal government does regarding climate. She wants scrapped and that's all in the service of,

producing a pipeline, and she wants no limits to stand in her way, and that includes Carney. That includes E.B. I think for a lot of Albertans, this is, once again, deja vu. We had fought the, fought BC, its premiers over pipelines, and the federal government ultimately concluded, and the courts concluded that there is no veto that the provincial government has. There was quite a bit of frustration in Alberta Corners when they heard the new energy minister, Tim Hodgson, talk about needing the support of BC to get a pipeline through because that is not how the Constitution works in its federal jurisdiction. Daniel Spitz put a lot on emphasis on this Grey Cup deadline to either have some of these

laws relieved or get a pipeline approved, but it seems like there's not a lot of interest in really doing much to approve a pipeline or fast track a pipeline if there are so few blanks on its application. We don't know who's going to build it ultimately. We don't know how much it's going to cost. what the timeline is, or even which part of BC it winds up in. Steph, where does that leave the prime minister? And what sort of boxes he put in?

Was this talk of Team Canada? And now you have not just this fight over a pipeline, but you have the Premier of Saskatchew, the Premier of Manitoba, Wob Cano, saying you should drop tariffs on EVs, Chinese EVs, to save the Canola industry. Doug Ford says, in his words, no damn way. Where does that leave Team Canada? I mean, let's go with the football analogy.

just for a second, if you'll indulge me here. Remember, the famous candidate for Prime Minister, progressive conservative candidate Robert Stanfield, did many wonderful things for his party and potentially could have for the country. What is he remembered for? Dropping the ball. The football.

Right? And that's the risk for Prime Minister Carney here. He keeps attaching these dates to things. He keeps saying that you're going to judge me by my results. I am going to deliver this, that, and the other. But if he doesn't start delivering them, and I think that's where you're seeing some frustration on the part of the premiers,

patience is running out. Even Daniel Smith, I mean, who her relationship, her testy relationship with Justin Trudeau is probably one for the books, you know, she's been willing to give him time. But when he himself sets a deadline, when he says, by the Grey Cup, I'm going to have more to tell you, well, then he better catch the ball. Otherwise, he's Robert Stanfield. Jason, if, I want to come back to that, if Daniel Smith does not get what she wants by the Grey Cup, what happens? She keeps talking about an or else. We'll see what the ORLs is. The ORLs in her political base is separatism.

Separatism is not caught wildfire, unlike wildfire in Alberta. It's still maybe 20%, 30% support. But that support is wholly resident within the United Conservative base. And a few weeks after the Great Cup, there is United Conservative Party Convention, and there is a real potential

that her party could become formally a separatist party then. There could be motions on the floor or some promotion there. And it will be very interesting to see. She has followed her base on many, many measures, including trans issues, including banning vote counting machines that they don't trust. So is she willing to go with them to the extent that she supports their idea that Canada is completely broken and Alberta shouldn't be part of it anymore?

Rob is Team Canada on the Rocks, do you think? Yeah, we're only a few months from that big Ra Rock. have a giant Canadian flag hanging in front of the BC legislature. And it seems like the only thing Team Canada accomplished is we got our wine and some more liquor stores out east. And that was pretty much it. It is difficult, I think, for BC to say to other provinces, you can't access the coast. But it would be a better argument for BC to say, we need these things to access the coast. We need reassurances and we need support. And the Premier doesn't seem to want to make that point. So there's a lot of politics out here, too. He has to look strong for his own reasons

here, and that's going to come at the expense of some other premiers. Is it broken? I don't know. I'm trying to think of a football analogy that involves some sort of CFL Rouge and a bunch of vague rules or something like that. But if it's not broken, it's strained, I guess, is the only way to put it. The clock is ticking on the game, I suppose. Steph, last word to you. The budget's coming. What sort of pressure is the prime minister under? What are the stakes? you think here? I feel like a broken record a bit. I mean, one of the points of pressure for this budget in particular is not what Mr. Carney is going to spend, but what he's going to cut and the extent to which those cuts have political ramifications for them. And for Mr. Carney,

who's promised to rein in spending, how he's going to do that and message his way through this, because all eyes seem to be on a budget with a massive deficit in the works. And some people will shrug off that number and say it doesn't matter to Canadians. But the reality is, is that does matter. It matters in the long term to this nation's finances. It matters to Mr. Carney's promise of getting things done with whose money, Canadians' money. So how is he going to make the case to them that what he's spending is worth it and will pay off in the short term for Canadians and not just create debt for future generations? And what's being cut is not going to impact them. I mean, again, cuts intellectually can be one thing, but when the knife

nicks you, that's a different thing all together. Yeah. And it could be a values-based thing. I mean, what are the programs, for example, that Mr. Carney is prepared to cut? And what does that tell him about us, what his vision is for the role of government in this country? And what does it mean for civil society? Great to have you all here this morning. Thank you very much. Thanks. Thank you. Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter in the Globe of Males, Ottawa Bureau, Rob Shaw, a political correspondent in Victoria with Czech News. And Jason Marcosoff is a CBC producer in Calgary and a regular on CBC's power and politics. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.

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