The Current - No deal for Canada after Carney and Trump meeting

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Mark Carney in Washington — and called the Canada-U.S. trade relationship a “natural conflict.” From cars and steel to the future of the USMCA, we break down what was said, what wasn’t, and what it means for Canada going forward. CBC’s Washington correspondent Katie Simpson joins us to explain.

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That's vote.com. Thanks for listening. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. We don't like to compete because we sort of hurt each other when we compete. And so we have a natural conflict. It's a natural business conflict. Nothing wrong with it.

And I think we've come a long way over the last few months, actually. in terms of that relationship. U.S. President Donald Trump met with Prime Minister Mark Carney yesterday for their second face-to-face discussion at the White House. There are areas, as the President just said, where we, I wouldn't, conflict, maybe not so much conflict, we compete. There are areas where we compete, and it's in those areas where we have to come to an agreement that works, but there are more areas where we are stronger together,

and that's what we're focused on, and we're going to get the right deal. Donald Trump said that Canada would be very happy, in his words, with progress on these trade talks. In the end, there was no deal announced, but the trade talks apparently continue. Katie Simpson is the CBC's senior Washington correspondent. Katie, good morning. Good morning. You were in the Oval Office. Describe the mood between these two leaders. Well, they certainly seem to get along, and that is a very important thing when you're trying to land this high-profile high-stakes.

deal. But at the same time, even though, you know, Donald Trump clearly respects Mark Carney, they joke, they compliment one another, it's back and forth, it hasn't led to the breakthrough that Canadians have so badly been hoping for. Remember, when Justin Trudeau's final months in office were taking place and Donald Trump's rhetoric about Canada, it became really toxic and really intense. That tone has changed and we saw sort of that on display in the Oval Office. But at the same time, it hasn't gotten Canada to a better place. One thing that I noticed that cameras in the room might not have noticed is I looked at the body language of the American delegation and then the Canadian delegation. And the American delegation, as Donald Trump was talking and making jokes, you saw J.D. Vant, you saw Howard Lutnik.

They were laughing and they seemed relaxed. And then I looked over at the Canadian side and the Canadian minister sitting on the couch beside Carney, the Canadian ambassador standing. behind the couch. And everyone is sort of sitting very straight, leaning forward, and just trying to have a poker face, you know, because Donald Trump is so unexpected, everyone on the Canadian side, there wasn't that same ease there. And understandably so. What do you make? And that's really interesting. And it speaks perhaps to the language that the two leaders use, which was different. Donald Trump talked about there's a natural conflict between our two countries. Mark Carney said its competition instead. What's that about? I think that that is sort of the best

example we can use to sort of sum up the moment we're in right now. The U.S. president says something and then the Canadian prime minister has to sort of gently try to course correct or try to sort of put the Canadian perspective on the table and do it without offending the host or out upsetting Donald Trump because no one wants and upset Donald Trump. And I also think that choice of language from Donald Trump also speaks to his bigger picture mindset. He views things as wins and losses. And he sees the Canada-U.S. relationship in conflict. Canada is trying to sort of reposition it to say, hey, we're not in conflict. Yes, we compete, but we work better together. But Donald Trump's mindset is win and loss, and he always wants to win.

So he said, Donald Trump said, that Canada would be very happy with the progress on trade talks, which led people to believe that perhaps the prime minister would walk out of there and announce a deal. There was no deal. He didn't speak with reporters after the meeting, but Dominic LeBlanc, the trade minister, told reporters the talks were, in his words, positive, substantive, that meetings are continuing. We're learning now that the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Anita Anand, is meeting with the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio. Is there any sense that a deal could come out of this? The president apparently directed his people to try and land some sort of deal, right? So I think that Canadians sort of need to temper expectations on some sort of big, broad trade and security agreement. I think at this point, the way the only sort of landing zone for Canada to get some sort of relief, it's going to be sectoral tariffs because no one is really talking about a bigger, broader agreement at this point in terms of realistically something that can land.

The focus really now is, okay, we have these critical. industries that are just being pummeled by tariffs, steel, aluminum, there are more threats coming, the auto sector. And Canada is trying to find a way to sort of lessen some of that pain. Donald Trump has made it very clear that tariffs are here to stay. And so countries now are just trying to find the best way to sort of get some form of relief. The goalposts have completely changed, I think, since Donald Trump came to office and started making his massive tariff threats. You know, when, when Donald Trump first imposed those border security and fentanyl tariffs, the attitude of the Canadian government is okay. It was going to be, we are going to fight back.

We are going to impose counter tariffs. And there had been hope that other countries, they were going to get hit with tariffs, too, that they would take the same approach. And other countries didn't do that. Canada was, Canada and China were sort of out there hanging in the wind on their own, retaliating against the U.S. and others didn't. And because, Because Donald Trump hasn't faced that kind of resistance, it sort of didn't work in Canada's favor. And so Trump is going to stick with tariffs. It doesn't look like tariffs are going away anytime soon. When he described himself as the tariff man during the U.S. campaign, the election campaign, he was speaking his truth.

That is who he is. So I don't think that that's going to happen for not just for Canada, but for any country. CBC is reporting that sources have said that Mark Carney raised the idea of revived Keystone XL pipeline. What do we know about that? That is according to our Rosemary Barton, who's published a story that's up on our website today. That suggests to me that everything and anything that might help move things along is absolutely on the table. And that Canada is very eager to find ways, find things that Donald Trump wants to make. make it work.

And it sort of speaks to the mindset that, you know, Canada is prepared to do whatever it can to sort of get Donald Trump in a mindset of finding a way to get some relief. Rosie's reporting suggests that that could be one way to sort of get some more movement on steel and aluminum. Sources, before this whole meeting, sources speaking to myself and my colleagues at Radio Canada, we had reported that the expectation among senior Canadian government officials was that there was going to be some movements on steel and aluminum coming out of this.

But that expectation was not met. There are always big caveats that, you know, nothing is final until it's final with Donald Trump and Donald Trump is unpredictable. I think Canadians understand that at this point. But the next step that I would expect to see some sort of movement or at least it's been suggested to me that it's very, very close is relief in the steel and aluminum sector.

That could be the first to see some relief. Is part of this, I mean, somebody has said that you're dealing with many different trade negotiations or trade negotiators at the same time. There's the president who people need to get the ear of, but there are also the, his deputies that are actually doing that negotiation. When the prime minister says that Canada is looking at investing a trillion U.S. dollars in the United States, what is he talking about there? Is that just about trying to catch the ear of the president? Okay, so Canadians might remember when other countries started landing trade deals with the U.S. I'm thinking Japan specifically. Part of the deal came with a promise for massive investment in the U.S.

These huge numbers. And so at that time, I went to Canadian sources and I sort of started asking, like, is Canada going to come to the table with some sort of massive investment proposal? Is that what it's going to take to land a massive trade and security deal? And what was said to me, my multiple senior Canadian government sources at the time, was that Canada and Canadians specifically already make massive investments in the U.S. And they pointed me to things like stock and investment portfolios, those kinds of things. The New York Post wrote a story in August about even though there's this massive trade war,

Canadians have invested $50 billion through their portfolios in American companies. You know, despite the trade war, these kinds of investments continue. And so that is at the time when I was asking around about, that, whether Canada was going to pony up some massive investment, it was said to me, we're going to point to what we're already doing and how we are a massive player on this scale

already. So that is how it was framed to me at that time. I believe that's what Mark Carney was speaking about in that moment, because previous sort of references to that were like, listen, Canadians are already doing this and like, let's keep this going. Just finally before I let you go, I mean,

you were there in the Oval Office, the gold festooned, oval office that Donald Trump has now inhabited, where's this relationship between our two countries, between Canada and the United States? When you have these two leaders there meeting, and again, to your point, they seem friendly to each other. Does that matter materially? It's unclear. But where does it leave the relationship between these two countries? I think that it does matter. By the way, there was a lot of gold in that oval office. I've been in there before, and that was the first time I've seen all the gold in person. It's very golden.

So the relationship does matter. It is important because they need to be able to have frank and constructive conversations. But, you know, the feeling in the Oval Office had very much the same vibe as that first one back in May between Carney and Trump. And the thing is, even though they're getting along and the tone has changed, that the policy hasn't changed. If anything, the policy directed at Canada is harder. And like there are more tariffs, there are higher tariffs. and at this point, I know that it looks like we are on the cusp of possibly some tariff relief. We're still not there yet. And so for all of the, you know, the, what's going on

with the, you know, at least, well, okay, the tone is better. He's talking less about making Canada the 51st state. He seemed to joke about it rather than use it as a demeaning point to demean Justin Trudeau. That has sort of shifted. But what has it tangibly gotten Canada at the end of the day? Katie, good to speak with you as always. Thank you very much. Thank you. Katie Simpson, the CBC's senior Washington correspondent. This has been the current podcast. You can hear our show Monday to Friday on CBC Radio 1 at 8.30 a.m. at all time zones. You can also listen online at cbc.ca.ca slash the current or on the CBC Listen app or wherever you get your podcasts.

My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. For more CBC podcasts, go to CBC.com. slash podcasts.