The Current - Parliament is back! What to expect from the new session

Episode Date: September 15, 2025

The House is back and so is our national affairs panel. CBC’s chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton, Ryan Tumilty of the Toronto Star and Stephanie Levitz of the Globe & Mail weigh in on what to expect this fall. Pierre Poilievre  will be back in the House after reclaiming a seat and Prime Minister Mark Carney has made some big promises – will he be able to deliver? Plus, there's a budget on the horizon, and the Liberals need a dance partner.

Some stories don't knock. They kick the door in. They move fast. Break rules and haunt you. See the stories that don't ask permission. They demand to be seen. This fall on APTN, they're coming for you.

This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. It is September, and that means back to school, back to the office for some, and the other sign of fall, the return of Parliament. The House is back today, and it is shaping up to be a very busy session. The much-delayed budget is expected in October. Pierre Pahliav is back with a new seat in the House as leader of the official opposition. There's also the ongoing trade war with the United States,

and we've just seen the first round of Prime Minister Mark Carney's list of national interest projects. There is a lot to talk about. We're putting the band back together. The National Affairs Panel returns. Rosemary Barton, the CBC Chief Political Correspondent, Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter in the Globe and Males-Odwa Bureau and Ryan Tomulte political reporter for the Toronto Star. Good morning. Morning. Hello.

Good morning. Rosie, let's start with the nation-building projects. What did you make of this list of national priorities that the Prime Minister announced last week? You know, I think this is the sort of the first big move that the Prime Minister has made to try and attract private investment and capital to this country. And the way he did it on Friday by announcing these projects from, you know, from the West Coast to the East Coast, LNG pipelines to copper mines and everything in between, five projects overall, is to choose projects that were close to completion. They didn't make any secret about that. They wanted projects that are almost across the finish line that need a little bit of an extra push, perhaps, from government to attract that capital I'm talking about and to speed up the completion. You know, Pierre Paulyev, I think, probably rightly criticized it as a government choosing easy projects to take credit for them when they're complete.

But I think the test will be in the next rounds of projects that are going to be more complicated in terms of consultation and more complicated in terms of approvals when it comes to the community and indeed. indigenous rights and that kind of stuff. We'll get to Mr. Polyev's response in a moment. Steph, from your perspective, and I'm sure there's no small element of politics that's rolled into what is and is not on the list. What struck you about it? No oil pipeline.

Not that there was one, you know, there's no proponent for one. There's nobody chomping at the bit to build one, but there was so much emphasis off the top and Mr. Carney started promising to build big things. The narrative really coalesced around this idea that that meant a pipeline. And from what I understand,

that caused a lot of frustration inside the prime minister's office, office because it was, well, there's more things than just a pipeline that can unite us, you know? And here we have some examples of that. And what was interesting about the projects list is that it was both big things, like this massive LNG project, which of course was approved, you know, a decade ago and just needs money to go. And then things that I would argue most Canadians weren't familiar with, like copper mines, right, that we have them, that we need to build them. And I think Mr. Carney was trying to send a signal there that nation building projects don't necessarily mean infrastructure that goes from east to west to north to wherever.

It means also these other projects that can bring material benefit to this country where they sit. Ryan, do you want to pick up on that? There is an LNG project on this first list of ideas, nation building ideas, but to stuff's point, no pipeline. And yet, and yet, Danielle Smith, the Premier of Alberta was saying the list shows a shift in focus and that we need, we broadly, need to be patient. What do you make of Daniel Smith's response? Yeah, I mean, it was all caps, effusive praise for a liberal government from Daniel Smith.

You know, it's waiting to see if the tides had disappeared. If, you know, up was down, everything had changed. I mean, clearly, I think the Carney government is signaling that they are not going to let small things get in their way when it comes to building green projects. I think we all sometimes skip over the prime minister's rhetoric about how much things have changed. But I think he genuinely intends that as a warning to Canadians that our economy is in trouble. Our biggest trading partner no longer seems to want to trade with us as much is prepared to tear up some of our biggest industries in the process. A lot is changing. And so he is signaling that they are going to move fast.

I think what remains to be seen how fast is fast for government. You know, these projects that are now getting the, you know, push across the finish line were almost entirely across that finish line after having waited in some cases more than a decade to get there. So, you know, this next round of project, as Rosie says, that's going to be the real test. You know, how quickly can we get a port expansion in Churchill, which is at the moment. nothing more than sort of an idea on paper. How fast is fast? It's like how soon is now. There was a song written about that.

Mr. Pauliev says, not fast enough. Have a listen to what he said. The message to Mark Carney and the liberals is they need to do one thing. Get out of the way. Get out of the way. All these projects need to go ahead is the removal of liberal anti-development laws and taxes that make them impossible. to build. Rosie, what sort of position does Pierre Pahlia find himself in? He's now an Alberta

and the Premier of Alberta sounds very different in terms of her response to this list than what he's saying. It's a complicated position and I don't think this is the last time he's going to find himself in that with this particular Prime Minister who tends to sort of lean a little bit center-right for lack of a better characterization. The government is removing regulations. That is indeed what this whole project office is about. It's about speeding through regulations or putting them on pause for certain projects or getting them done all at once in order to get this happening. What Pierpoliath is saying is that if the government was really committed to that, they would rescind legislation like Bill C-69, for instance. The government's not doing it that

way, but it's like kind of half doing it that way. So I think it becomes challenging for Mr. Paulyev to criticize things that he probably fundamentally agrees with the outcome. It's just the process that he has issues with. And I think you're going to see that time and again over the course of the next six months as the government moves forward with some of these big projects. Housing would be another one. Yes, he wants the government to get building on housing. There was a big $1, $13 billion announcement yesterday to do that.

But he doesn't believe in the way the government's doing it, which in this case is to create another agency and level of bureaucracy to attract investors. Steph, do you want to jump on that? I mean, Pierre Polly was speaking with our colleague Catherine Cullen on the House on the weekend, was asked about this a few different times. And you could hear it's a difficult subject for him to reckon with. What does he say about these projects, given the fact that the Premier of Alberta, province that he represents as an MP, is the very least cautiously optimistic about it. The liberals have pulled back a lot of what Pierre Pauley have disliked. So how much traction is he going to get with this kind of messaging? I think, I mean, that is, will be and is his central challenge going forward. What now is his proposition to voters? I mean, Mr. Pollyov was out talking about a conservative government approving this LNG phase two, the very same thing that is now on Mr. Carney's list. When the liberals were laughing at him, saying the liberals would never approve it,

and he was all like, let's approve it. And so he's watched one by one where some of these fundamental policy planks are being hoovered up by the Carney government. The challenge from Mr. Polly of, though, is that one has to look at his, his, politics and the messaging and the things he is going to do and divide the next six months from what comes after. And I say that because Mr. Polio faces a leadership review in January. That is the most salient political milestone for him, not the next general election at this point. And so I would anticipate that he spends a lot of time saying the same things he's always said to remind and convince his party membership that he's the same guy. He lost the election,

but his messaging. He still believes what he believes. He wants to. He wants to. He wants to to go ahead on these themes, Kearney government, you know, too bad for you right now. Just briefly, do you think that that has anything to do with his messaging around immigration? He's calling for hard caps demanding that the temporary foreign workers program ends. Is that part of what you're talking about, Steph? I think that is part of it. I mean, I think that there is, you know, a growing concern and, unfortunately,

a teetering consensus in this country about immigration and the mistakes, perhaps, that were made from a policy perspective previously. He's tapped a vein. Let's remember Mr. Polyev has, I don't know if he's got a political magic eight ball that he squirrels away at Stornway, where he flips it over and says, what's going to bug people next? And he reads that, right? And he's good at it.

He's good at tapping that. I think for his membership, it's absolutely an issue of salience. And I think for the broader Canadian public, we are inching towards a conversation. You know, with the eight ball might say, outcome uncertain. Some stories don't knock. They kick the door in. They move fast.

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Available now wherever books are sold. This ad is brought to you by Simon and Schuster, Canada. Ryan, just last point on this. How do you think he's changed as a politician? After the election, there was all sorts of discussion. He would have to soften some of the rougher edges, perhaps, that people saw in him. Has he changed much, do you think?

I don't see a huge change in Pierre Pollyev, And I have to say that if I was in Pierre Polyev's shoes, I'm not sure I would be inclined to change. Pierre Polyev, even though he lost his own seat and didn't win the election, led the Conservative Party to a result in the general election that they have not seen in decades. You know, over 40 percent. That is normally a majority government territory. The liberals are government today because, in large part, because of the NDP's collapse in support. So, you know, Pierre Pahliav has always believed that the reason the conservative party has struggled in previous elections is because it is not conservative enough. So for him to suddenly decide after having a result that is difficult for any of his predecessors to match to suddenly veer to the center, I just don't think would work for him. You know, he believes that Canadians fundamentally want conservative ideas.

and if he keeps putting them in the window in an attractive way, eventually he'll get to be Prime Minister. It'll be interesting to see whether the budget, the first budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney, includes, to Rosie's point, some conservative ideas or center-right ideas. The Prime Minister has been telegraphing that there will be some belt tightening in said budget.

Have a listen. It's going to be a challenging budget. We have to take some tough decisions. These are tough times. We have to take some tough decisions. But one of the core reasons why we're taking tough decisions is for affordability and security for Canadians. So that means child care.

That means supporting health care in this country. Pharmacare, dental care, things that make a huge difference to many people's lives. Rosie, tough, tough, tough, where is the toughness going to be felt? Where will we might see some cuts? Yeah, indeed, the house leader on my program yesterday said the deficit would be substantial. And when we talk substantial, we're talking, you know, maybe in the range, of $100 billion, because the last time we got a look at numbers was last December, and we haven't really seen where things are at. And Carney points to a few things as making

things worse. Obviously, the trade war, the tariffs, obviously those are complicating things. The government's decision to support certain sectors and those employees, but also his own decisions, right? The tax cut and the GST and on homes and the decision to spend $9 billion on defense. It's a huge, huge commitment, as is this housing announcement from yesterday. So something is going to have to come from somewhere. And he seems to believe that the more that they can attract this private capital, private money, and get people investing in Canada, the better chance they have of creating some growth to get out of it. But the fact remains that some things are going to have to go. And it's not really clear to me where that's going

to come from, given that clip you just played, because he's obviously going to keep some of those fundamental programs, social programs for Canadians. So where is it all going to come from if he's going to keep those and add more spending and try and tackle this enormous deficit with, let's be honest, his own economic bona fides on the line because this is a sort of world-renowned economist who knows what he's doing. So let's see if that's the case once we get this first budget. Ryan, where do you think the knife will be felt? in the public service. I think we're going to see job cuts. There's really no way around it.

You know, the Trudeau government, in its sort of dying days, started a cost exercise, trying to trim some costs. They were trying to cut about $3 billion. So we're starting to see the impact of those cuts finally hit. And in Ottawa, we've seen, you know, hundreds of job losses announced at a handful of agencies so far. Well, the Carney government is trying to take $25 billion out of that same budget. That sounds like thousands of jobs. I think it probably will be. You know, we'll obviously see. We know the government's looking at options now, but it is hard to see a scenario in which it doesn't end with thousands of job cuts, probably mostly here in Ottawa.

Steph, are you surprised to already hear a word like austerity being used in advance of this? But we don't know when the budget's going to be released and this word is being tossed around. Yeah, I mean, I can say I was at liberal caucus last week in Edmonton, Matt, and I can say that the prime minister, you know, a reporter asking him, will this be an austerity budget? The prime minister repeating the word austerity. That went over like a lead balloon inside that caucus, right? Because the liberal party, you know, over under the, in the Trudeau years, it was a chicken in every pot kind of situation. Like, how can I help you today? Right. And so for us to go from that environment with, Canadians broadly realizing that government spending needs to be reined in, that we're in a moment, you know, of economic crisis, government needs to refocus, that's all fine and well until that government program that supported, I don't know, pick something, a community center someplace, suddenly evaporates. And that's where people are getting their backs up. When Ryan talks about

cuts to the public service, cuts to the public service does mean cuts to grants. It means cuts to contributions. It means cuts to funding all of these community programs. And, And people are worried about that. Is the sense that they have a lane open to make those cuts because on the left, the NDP is leaderless, does not have a particularly large representation in the House? I mean, there's this narrative that's floating around that the prime minister isn't who he said he was going to be. But is the belief that he can do this because he is not facing that pressure from progressive voters? To a degree, yeah.

And to a degree, the new democracy. are in a process eventually of choosing a new leader. They don't want a new election right now. Let's remember this is a minority government, right? He presents perhaps like he has a majority, right? But he is still going to need support from other parties in the House of Commons. And whether he makes the decision that, well, the NDP just don't want an election right now, so they'll go along to get along.

I don't know if you're a sitting new Democrat MP who wants to be leader of your party. Do you do that? I don't know. Where, Ryan, is he going to, and are the liberals going to scare up a couple of votes? for these big bills. I mean, this is a confidence issue, right? Yeah, I mean, that's the big question. I don't know the answer to it.

I agree with Steph that I think the NDP is going to be reluctant to bring down this government. You know, they don't have to vote with this government to let the government pass. They can abstain. The conservatives are also talking about maybe supporting this government at times. Maybe the block will. I'm not sure anyone is eager for an election right now, but I think that time expires sometime next year. You know, I don't think this is going to be like the last minority government that ran the full four years almost. I think this is going to be a much more traditional minority.

Rosie, what about from you? I mean, are conservatives in a bind? If this budget sees a lot of what they want, can they say we're not going to support it? If some of the ideas are ideas that they have been calling for? Well, I don't think there's, I don't think there's a scenario where they support it full out myself because of what Steph talked about earlier, that leadership review, which will be sort of, you know, obviously key to probably have survival. So I don't think there's a world in which, even if there's things that they love in there, they throw their hands up and say, this is a great budget. That's just me. But I think it's much easier to convince the other parties and probably much cheaper to convince the other parties for support, whether it be the Block, Black Quebequa, it has a number of niche.

issues, although is really leaning into the fact that the government is maybe not talking about climate change enough. And I agree with Ryan. You know, you get a couple people not to show up on the NDP side to vote and your budget passes pretty easily. I think, honestly, that the bigger issue is not whether the government survives. It's whether the government actually starts to show some results from all these things it's talking about. Canadians are feeling the pinch again, right? And affordability has again risen to the top as a key issue for them. There's talk of a recession. Employment numbers are really, really bad, you know, like the worst they've been since COVID. So these ideas that they have are big ideas, but they have to start

working and filtering into Canadians' lives. Otherwise, they're going to find that the honeymoon is over pretty fast. Steph, last minute to you, I said at the very beginning that the prime minister is under pressure to start building. How much pressure is he facing? And when, I mean, you want the honeymoon to go on, but honeymoon's often are brief. You know, he's under pressure, and I'll pick up on what Rosie said. He had, Canadians need to feel the things he's doing. And the challenge becomes when they don't feel that, oh, this copper mine in Saskatchewan is going to benefit me, they start wondering, did I place my trust in the right guy? And Canadians start getting agitated, and that's when governments tend to make decisions that don't work when they're responding to public pressure.

They look to the polls. They don't look to the policy. And, you know, that's tripped up many governments before. We will watch to see how this unfolds. The meeting between the two leaders in the House in Marcarni and Pierre Paul Aev will be fascinating to watch this afternoon as well. Thank you all for being here. Have a good day. Rosemary Barton, CBC Chief Political Correspondent, host of Rosemary Barton Live on CBC News.

Network. Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter in the Globe of Mail's Ottawa Bureau and Ryan Tomulte Political Reporter with the Toronto Star. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name's Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca.