The Current - Parliament is back: What’s at stake for Carney and Canada

Episode Date: January 26, 2026

It’s been a dramatic few weeks including Prime Minister Mark Carney's whirlwind trip from Beijing to Doha to Davos. Followed by President Donald Trump’s threats of 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods. To help make sense of it all, our national affairs panel, Stephanie Levitz, a senior reporter with the Globe and Mail's Ottawa bureau, Ryan Tumilty, a parliamentary reporter with the Toronto Star, and Rosemary Barton, CBC's chief political correspondent join us to talk about what we can expect from the political season ahead.

Hey, it's me Gavin Crawford, host of the Because News podcast. If you're looking for some kind of group therapy for the news, well, we've got you. On Because News, I quiz the brightest and funniest Canadians about what's going on in the world, all in front of a live audience. So whether you spent the week quoting aphorisms of Thucydides or binge watching heated rivalry, we'll catch you up on the Canadian headlines. Follow us wherever you get your fine podcasts for free. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. This week, Parliament is back in session after a dramatic few weeks,

including the Prime Minister's whirlwind trip from Beijing to Doha to Davos, and a speech that went around the world. We know the old order is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But we believe that from the fracture, we can build something bigger, better, stronger, more just. This is the task of the middle powers.

Prime Minister meets with the premiers on Thursday for the first time since striking that trade deal with China, although he will make a special trip to see the Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford later today. We'll talk about that in a moment. On Friday, Pierre Pahliav faces his leadership review at the Conservative Party Convention. There is a lot to talk about. And so our National Affairs panel has put down the snow shovels and joins us this morning. Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter with the Globe and Males Ottawa Bureau, Ryan Tomlety, Parliamentary Reporter with the Toronto Star and Rosemary Barton, the CBC's chief political correspondent. Good morning. everyone. Good morning. Ryan, let's start with that speech. As I said, went right around the world. Headlines from one corner of this planet in some ways to another. Why do you think what Mark Carney said in Davos struck such a chord? I think he spoke to an audience of countries, an audience of, you know, middle powers or smaller, like Canada,

who are trying to figure out how to navigate. the world ahead. It is clear that the rules-based international order, to use a clumsy phrase, is going away. It is clear also, and I think what Mr. Carney said that really stuck out, was that it's been going away for a while and that it was never as rules-based as we like to pretend it, that large countries like the U.S., like China, like Russia, could ignore those rules when they felt like it. And so, you know, I think he gave a lot of countries. a path forward. And I think that's what really stuck out.

And I think that's why it seems to have stuck a nerve, not just here in Canada, but really truly around the world. He got a standing ovation in Davos, but there was at least one person who did not appreciate the Prime Minister's speech. Take a listen. Canada gets a lot of freebies from us, by the way. They should be grateful also, but they're not. I watch your Prime Minister yesterday.

He wasn't so grateful. But they should be grateful to us. Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that? There are some people who thought that was a threat. The president followed up on that with the threat of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods in light of Canada's recent trade talks with China.

Rosie, how serious is a threat like this? Well, I mean, that's the problem with Donald Trump's threats is we never know if they are real and whether he's going to follow through. But in making those threats over the weekend, he proved Mark Carney's point, time and again, and that is that this president is going to use tariffs and coercion as a point of leverage with other countries. And what the Prime Minister was saying to that audience is

that's not acceptable, and I'm willing to stand up to this bully. I mean, that's essentially where we're at. There's a couple problems with, of course, with what Donald Trump's threats were about. We are not seeking a free trade deal with China. The Prime Minister made that clear over the weekend. And in fact, that's written into Kusma. So it's not possible. But I think what it speaks to, obviously, is that he struck a nerve with the president, that he got a lot of attention around the world, as Ryan said, that it was a lot in speech, even though some of the messages would have been very familiar to Canadians, less familiar to other people in the world. And that he is now, you know, that the China deal, which is really trying to get rid of,

the tariffs that were in place and seek other opportunities, was the action that Mark Carney took that puts his ideas into play. If we cannot count on the United States, then we will seek trading partners elsewhere, even if they are still problematic like China for all sorts of reasons. So you always take what the president says seriously, and I'm sure that the government is,

but I also think that they laid down some markers in that speech, and they're going to go full steam ahead. Steph, Mark Carney was asked yesterday on his way into caucus if he is mortgaging Canadian's affordability by angering the president. What sort of a risk do you think the prime minister took in making that speech? I mean, it was a major risk because we're seeing maybe the fallout from that now, right? We're seeing a president who is vengeful, a president who is revengeful. You know, he doesn't like being shown up.

And Mr. Carney's underlying message, I think, to the president and to, you know, powers around the world was that America's power depends on other countries' willingness to go along with accepting that power. And it's time to stop accepting that as being true and something that everybody wants to buy into. I know that, you know, Mr. Carney in meeting with his cabinet in Quebec City last week and meeting with his caucus over the weekend, the message very much was buckle up. This has the potential to get nasty for us, but it had to be. said. And so there is a risk. And I think as we prepare for the return of parliament today, this is going to be a really central tension point in the weeks ahead. This tension between Mr. Carney, I think really wanting to now try and focus a bit more on the domestic policy agenda. He needs to prove to Canadians he can deliver. He needs to prove that these big ideas will pay off for them. But always in the shadow, or right out of the shadow, is going to be what is Donald Trump, going to do next. Ryan, what do you think, to Steph's point, I mean, using her language that it may get nasty, what do you think is coming? And do you think that the prime minister, I mean,

again, this is a speech that was familiar to many people here in Canada in terms of some of the words that were used, but not to an international audience, perhaps not to the U.S. president, and he has offered this threat back. Do you think the prime minister perhaps miscalculated that response? And what does get nasty? What does it mean in terms of what we might be facing as a nation. Well, you know, up until now, despite all of the trade damage that Donald Trump has done, the economic damage that he has done to Canada, to a bunch of really important industries, so much of what Canada trades with the U.S. has been sheltered by the Kuzman deal. You know, I think as we move into this year, a year in which it is up for review and theoretically,

where, you know, the U.S. could more easily, I guess, walk away from it. I think that was the, you know, that was the threat that maybe he'll walk away from the deal altogether, that we won't be mostly sheltered from this trade war. And I think, you know, that is something that I think, you know, Canadian officials have known for a while is hanging over us going into 2026. You know, Donald Trump lashes out. Let's not pretend like there's a sane, regular, you know, ordered approach to his policy. Sometimes he lashes out. A week ago, he was applauding Carney for signing a

deal with China. Now he's suggesting it's the end of Canada as we know it. You know, there is no rationality here. And I think, you know, Canada has to be prepared for that and the possibility that this trade war, which has already done economic damage, has already cost a lot of jobs, could get much worse. Rosie, this is no longer the prime minister, apparently, who apologized to the president for Doug Ford's tariff at. What has changed, do you think, with Mark Carney? I think a couple of things. I think, first of all, he wasn't getting anywhere with the other approach. There was a lot of backing down and apologizing. And then when it seemed like there was going to be some resolution on those sectoral tariffs and then that fell apart because of the ad, clearly it just didn't seem like there was a path for. So I think that a couple things have changed.

I think that the Prime Minister has talked before about time being on Canada's side. I think that's true increasingly now as we get closer to the midterms. And as we see some of the dissatisfaction against the president inside his own country economically and otherwise. So I think he understands that those are things that play to Canada's advantage. And frankly, the other part of what he has. promise to do and building up the strength of Canada and finding other trading partners has to happen. Like this is a two-track kind of approach, right, for the prime minister and for the government. And so he needed to get some of those things underway in order to see whether,

you know, as Ryan says, if this falls apart, and I don't believe that it will, but if it falls apart or it gets worse, do we have things in place to protect us? And I think that's what we're seeing. It's been said that being neighbors with America is like sleeping with an elephant. One gets affected by every twitch and grunt. Well, these days, there's a lot more than twitches and grunts in dealing with the U.S. I'm Paul Hunter. And I'm Katie Simpson. We're reporters here in Washington, and every Wednesday will bring you a smart conversation to help you make sense of how American politics are affecting Canada. Our new podcast is called Two Blocks from the White House. Find and follow now wherever you get your podcasts, including YouTube.

Steph, what did you make of Pierre Polyev's response to the speech? He put out a lengthy statement saying, sure, the speech was well crafted, but do something now, essentially. I mean, one of the things that stood out with Mr. Polyev's response is that he actually complimented Mark Carney, right? That he spoke to, you know, the crafting of the speech, the way it was delivered, the power there. And in so doing, perhaps Mr. Polyev embodied what he is supposed to be doing as leader of the opposition, as he himself has said and others have said, the job is twofold, right?

One is to act as a check on the government to say, okay, sounds great, but, you know, get it done, right? Hold them accountable. And the second thing is maybe suggest some ideas. And I think Mr. Polyev is playing those two roles as he seeks to remind Canadians that, one, we are in a minority government situation still. to, should the government fall, he could become prime minister and he's got to start reminding Canadians or at least try and convince them that he is capable of that. And that kind of response

to some degree was trying to do that for him. I'll come back to Mr. Palliav in a moment. Mark Carney is also taking some heat about the deal that he struck with China from some people who in the last several months certainly have been allies of the prime minister, including Doug Ford, the Premier of Ontario. Here is Doug Ford speaking at a news conference with leaders from the auto industry. and the union movement. I was very, very disappointed. As my colleagues behind me are very disappointed,

not to get a phone call, not to get a text message, and cutting a deal. And God bless the people in Saskatchewan. I love them out west, out east, in the fisheries. But the three of us, we have to take care of Ontario here. Ryan, Doug Ford, as you can hear, is not happy that Chinese EVs will be allowed into the Canadian market in exchange for China lifting these tariffs on country.

canola, peas, and seafood. What happened to Team Canada? Great question. You know, I think this was a, I think this can get overstated. This is a very small entry for Chinese EVs into the Canadian market. I understand, however, why it makes Canadian manufacturers nervous, because Chinese EVs are both heavily subsidized and considered at kind of the top of the market. You know, they have a lot of features that Canadians would appreciate. They seem to work quite well. they could be very disruptive to our local business, and especially if this is just the beginning. You know, we sell, I think it's 1.8 million vehicles in this country every year.

We're letting in 49,000 EVs. But if that grows, it could really displace a lot of Canadian automakers, and I think it could really shake up the sort of dominance of Southern Ontario to that business and that industry. You know, going to China and making any kind of deal, though, was going to require angering someone. If Mr. Carney had come back with nothing, Scott Moe and Atlantic premiers who are worried about their seafood industry would be yelling at him. So this was always going to require tradeoffs. I know Mr. Carney and Mr. Ford are getting together today. perhaps they can smooth over those fences over breakfast. I don't know. Rosie, the premier's meet with Mark Carney on Thursday, and it's not just the auto sector.

You have the premier of Manitoba, Wab Canoe, critiquing what Doug Ford is talking, but he's looking at banning Crown Royal and Wob Canoe has an ad saying, no, don't ban the Crown Royal because it's made here in Gamelay Manitoba. What do you think is going to come out of that meeting when everybody is in the same room together? Are people still on the same page? I mean, yes and no, right? They are on the same page in terms of taking, I think, still taking a united approach against Donald Trump and what he's doing. But at the same time, their job is to advocate for their region and their industries. And that is what makes Mark Carney's job all that much harder. As Ryan rightly said, that trip to China was going to make someone upset. And there was a calculation, obviously, that this was the best path forward. I would point out, that the government is also committed to announcing some sort of auto sector strategy in the coming week. So I don't think Doug Ford's going to walk away empty-handed. And that's what those first ministers increasingly are about because of the pressures that they are under economically.

It's about the prime minister finding ways to appease one part of the country and support the other and try and not upset people. But he is very, I would say, very live to, and I know that this came up in his cabinet and caucus meetings, very live to, again, the issues around the federalism, the separatist movement in Alberta, the PQ possibly winning the next Quebec election. So I think that those are factors weighing heavily on how he manages the premiers and how he tries to make sure that people don't feel like he's trading one against the other. So from the sideline, Steph, Pierre Polyev is watching. The Conservative Party convention gets underway on Friday. What are you going to be watching for in that convention? I mean, you know, top line is obviously Mr. Polyev's leadership review, right? You're going to have thousands of delegates making a choice as to whether or not he should remain as leader of the party.

It's a mandatory review because he lost the last election. Common wisdom remains that he is going to win it. But what is the number, right? What is the number of delegates who put their support in him? And then you have the second piece of the convention. which is delegates debating various policies they'd like to see added to the conservative policy handbook, measures in their constitution. And what's interesting about that, in my view, is the tension there between the things that they are going to be arguing and debating about and the issues

currently facing the country and the globe. They are not necessarily connected, right? And you'll have simultaneously to this convention, Mr. Carney meeting with the premiers, you know, big top line issues. You're going to have other things happening around in Parliament. And it's going to be challenging for a couple of days anyway, I think, for Mr. Polyev to look like the leader of a party that's focused on the everyday issues for Canadians, as opposed to the sort of grassroots things that party members are really seized with at the moment. Ryan, there's some reporting in your paper about this, about the differences in the difficulties. in some ways that Mr. Paul Davis going to face in terms of trying to please different

constituencies, right? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, there's a really interesting polling, and certainly it's been done over the last two years that show, for example, while most Canadians really do not like Donald Trump and everything about his administration, a lot of what Donald Trump is doing is popular among Canadian conservatives, or at least a group of Canadian conservatives. So I think, you know, that has always been a challenge for Pierre Polyev. You know, a lot of what Steph talked about, a lot of those policy resolutions are not what Canadians are concerned about.

And I think Pierre Polyev has been very effective, you know, when we talk about speeches at Davos, peer Polyeuvre has been very effective at pointing out that, you know, people can't eat speeches, that groceries, that groceries, that affordability, that the cost of living are what most Canadians really concerned about. And this convention is maybe not going to talk about those things nearly as much as I think Mr. Polyev would like. So that's going to be a challenge for him, not just the leadership review, but how does he come out of that leadership review looking like the right guy to lead the country that's focused on the issues that Canadians care about? Not to mention it's happening in Alberta in the middle of a growing separatist movement. We just have a couple of minutes left. Rosie, people are waking up this morning in many parts. of this country. And it's like a deep freeze. There are warnings about weather. There are warnings

about the amount of snow that people might be facing. Pathetic fallacy is one of my favorite things, where the weather kind of matches the mood in some ways. What do you think Canadians are feeling right now? I think there's a low-grade anxiety. I mean, speaking for myself, I think there's a low-grade anxiety. I think the threats around Greenland were kind of a wake-up call or a reminder. of what the president is capable of, or a reminder of the importance of our own sovereignty. And then I think there's sort of the practical things that we're talking about, the affordability issues,

the fact that it is still, we have the highest food prices in the G7. The conservatives will remind the prime minister of that today. But, and he will announce today some top-ups to the GST credit that will help, hopefully help people later this year. But I think there is a logo,

great anxiety. And I think that that is understandable. And I think what the government has to do is try and calm people, both in the face of real and present threats from the U.S. President, and sort of make sure that the Canadians feel comfortable in their everyday lives. And that's the piece that I am not sure the government is doing enough on. And I think this announcement about the GST top up today is a recognition of that. But I think they need more. They need to see more help from the government. They need to see more changes, whether it be crime legislation or other things, that they can feel in their lives. Because if you're already dealing with the pressures and instability of what's going on in the world writ large, largely because of the

U.S. President, but other things do, I think your life has to be a little bit better. And I think that's the part that the government is not quite there yet on. And that's the part where they need to improve. The vibes matter, as people say. We will talk more about this after Parliament resumes and certainly after Friday and the leadership review for the Conservatives. Thank you all for being here this morning. Thank you. Stay warm. Stephanie Levitt, senior reporter with the Globe of Males-Odawa Bureau, Ryan Tomlety, parliamentary reporter with the Toronto Star, Rosemary Barton, the CBC's chief political correspondent. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts,

go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.