The Current - Poilievre prepares for leadership vote at Conservative convention

Episode Date: January 30, 2026

The Conservative Party convention is underway in Calgary, and Pierre Poilievre will face a leadership review tonight. Jason Kenney, the former premier of Alberta, along with Monte Solberg, former cabinet minister under Stephen Harper, tell us what to expect to come out of this convention, and can Pierre Poilievre stay as the leader of the Conservative Party?

This is the sound of your legacy ERP. Nothing works in harmony. Now this is the sound of Workday, a next-gen ERP that future-proofs your organization. Workday, the AI platform for HR and finance. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. The Conservative Party Convention is underway in Calgary, and Per Poliev will face a leadership.

review tonight. Now, under the Conservative Party's rules, a review is mandatory when a leader loses an election. And last April, the Conservative Party lost, despite having a double-digit lead in national opinion polls for more than a year leading up to the federal election. And Pierre Poliiev lost his own seat. So as the party meets to figure out its next moves, were joined by two long-term conservatives. Jason Kenney is the former Premier of Alberta and was a federal conservative cabinet minister. Monti Solberg was part of that same cabinet and is now a conservative strategist in Calgary. Gentlemen, good morning to you both.

Good morning. Monty Solberg, what threshold does Pierre Poliev need to clear in this leadership vote in your view? And how secure is he? Oh, I think he's quite secure. I think if he gets over 75%, they'll declare victory, but I'm sure they want to be over 80. And based on my chats with people around the convention, I think he's in good shape to get there. Stephen Harper in 2005, when he faced a vote like this, he got 84% support.

Is 75 low-balling it? 75 is pretty low, and they'll want 80 for sure, but, you know, they'll certainly defend 75. People have stayed with 75 and even lower. I think Merritt Stiles, the NDP leader in Ontario stayed with 70% somewhere around. there. So it's quite possible, but obviously when you're going into a highly contested situation like we're in right now where we could be in an election pretty quick, you want to go in with big support and obviously 80% plus would be preferable. Jason, Kenny, what will you be watching for this evening, not just from the vote results, but also his speech? Well, I think he's going

to be confirmed as leader. I was, I'm at the convention and there's a very positive vibe. Part of that's just sort of the gathering of the clan, so to speak, and people happy to see each other after an election. But the vast majority of people I saw were wearing pro-Pierre buttons. And, you know, let's not forget that despite the disappointing outcome of the last election, he scored the highest popular vote since 1988 for a conservative leader. leader and the highest total number of votes for any conservative in history, breaking into new terrain in terms of many blue-collar voters, younger voters, with the national coalition. So by any standard, this is, and let's not forget, Mr. Polly have won the leadership election

with, I think, something like, except three quarters of the vote. So this is in many ways his party, and I expect that will be confirmed tonight. I think his challenge, tonight in the speech is obviously, you know, it's in a way it's the same challenge it was in the election, which is a difficult one, which is to connect with the overall driving concern of Canadians, which is the cost of living, without completely allotting past the huge threat and challenge from the South. And I think you can do both of those things, but it requires nuance, and I think he's capable of that. Monty Solberg, of course, he'll be speaking to the convention, but as Mr. Kenny points out,

he'll be speaking to Canadians across the country. So what are the stakes for his speech? Oh, the stakes are high. Assuming he wins, and I'm quite confident he'll clear the threshold, you really want to have a message for the country as a whole. We saw recent polling that indicates that there's still about 14% of Canadians that are accessible to the conservatives. People, that are open to voting for the conservatives but didn't vote for the conservatives in the last election campaign. And he's going to have to make an appeal to those people to say, hey, you know, we have the policies. And I think we, you know, importantly for Pierre, we have the sort of the tone that will appeal to those people. So Pierre has to show that

he's multidimensional. He can adjust to this situation. And he can stand up for Canada. in a sort of thoughtful way to the hostility that's coming from the White House. Well, let's have a listen to what some of the conservatives who are there are saying from BC, Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, what they're saying about Mr. Poliev. Oh, I'm a PR girl. I support the leadership of PR for sure. I mean, I hit the doors, and from what I can see, it's the young people who are really hungry to have change and they can't afford to buy homes and they're struggling. So we need to get the young people out to vote because young people are, they're more conservative than ever before.

I think Palli is just to be himself and just lead with hope and optimism. I'm 21. So this is a great time to get a lot of young people involved and make sure that they are educated on the real issues that Canada is facing? I do like him. In terms of what he says, it's fine, but in terms of delivery, has to be more appealing. So I don't know whether he should stay as a leader or not.

If there is somebody better, hallelujah, but if it is not, he is good enough. So we hear one of the people at the convention saying Pierre Poliev is good enough, but he doesn't find his delivery appealing, something we heard from voters during the campaign tune. Does he need to change how he comes across and can he? Well, I think Monty hit on it. The tone is really important.

His core message about affordability, breaking down the kind of gatekeeping in the Canadian economy, reducing inflationary pressures, getting our fiscal house in order, which can help with all of that. It is a powerful message. It resonates, obviously, with especially younger Canadians,

who feel totally locked out of today's economy. But he's not going to be prime minister unless he can persuade some of the older voters, the plus 60 voters he lost from the conservative coalition to come back into it. And these are folks who have obviously done well with asset inflation, homeownership, you know, roughly with the status quo in the Canadian economy. And perhaps they can afford to be more concerned about, I think, the very real threat from Trump and his administration.

So he needs to, if to be prime minister, not leader needs to speak to those folks. And I think that shouldn't be too tall in order for a conservative to be once again competitive amongst the age cohort who traditionally were the most loyal conservative voters. But I think it requires a tone that demonstrates statesmanship, auditioning to be prime minister, and not just to be a very effective opposition leader. On the issue of tone, I mean, critics, even within your own party have said that he, you know, has been aggressive. He has a reputation as an attack dog.

Mr. Solberg, can he change his tone? He absolutely can. Look at his response to the Prime Minister's Davos speech. It was absolutely excellent. He found the tone. He congratulated the Prime Minister on his great speech and then proceeded, you know, in a methodical, winsome way to talk about some of the challenges that the Prime Minister has failed to meet despite the rhetoric.

And I thought he just found it was pitch perfect in my mind. And, you know, if he can continue that sort of approach, I think, you know, it's, it's, it's a very, there's a very good chance that he can continue to pick up support. Prime Minister has some big challenges with great respect to my friends in the Liberal Party. I don't think they're up to some of those challenges because their own party is split with people wanting to go. go, you know, toward the green side on one hand and others who are sort of pro-growth on the

other. But I think he's found the tone. He just needs to stay with it. This is the sound of your legacy ERP. Nothing works in harmony. Now this is the sound of Workday, a next-gen ERP that future-proofs your organization. Workday, the AI platform for HR and finance. You know that feeling when you reach the end of a really good true crime series? You want to know more, more about the people involved, where the case is now, and what it's like behind the scenes. I get that.

I'm Kathleen Goldhar and on my podcast, Crime Story, I speak with the leading storytellers of true crime to dig deeper into the cases we all just can't stop thinking about. Find crime story wherever you get your podcasts. Jason Kenney, during the election, campaign Pollyev was criticized for not shifting gears quickly enough when Donald Trump was making his, you know, 51st state threats. Is that still an issue for him? Well, to be honest, I think that I'd like to hear from not just Pierre, but his team, a more consistent concern about that threat. I think, you know, you hear the, compare this to the language of Stephen Harper, who had an off-the-record

event a year ago, said that we should be prepared to pay any price, including, in our own impoverishment as a country in order to defend our sovereignty. Pierre, of course, adopted the theme Canada first, Canada last, and Canada always in that campaign. But I think it requires a consistency, not to wake up every day to make Donald Trump the, you know, turn into the opposition to Donald Trump, because his job is to hold the current government to account and to address the very real domestic policy preoccupations of Canadians. But I just don't think you can do that while pretending Trump isn't there. So I think he has to make that part of the message in an authentic way.

And as Monty says, throw a spotlight on the gap between Prime Minister Carney's very high expectations and rhetoric and actual policy delivery on a whole bunch of issues. I think that will be an opportunity for Mr. Pollitt. Alberta's separatism is not going to be on the official agenda at the convention, but it's hard to ignore. Separatist events are drawing good numbers of people. They've met with the U.S. administration, asked for financial backing.

Have a listen to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, on Real Voice America last week. Alberta is a wealth of natural resources, but they won't let them build a pipeline to the Pacific. I think we should let them come down into the U.S. And Alberta is a natural partner for the U.S. They have great resources. the Albertans are very independent people,

rumored that they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not. Jason Kenney, former Premier of Alberta, what do you want to hear from Pierre Polyev on this front? Well, I think he needs to be clear about denouncing any effort by a foreign government to interfere in our domestic politics, whether it's China, Russia, or for that matter, the United States. I think the revelation that Trump administration officials have been meeting with

unelected folks. And by the way, I've got to tell you, somebody's been active on the right of Alberta politics for like three decades. I know the kind of characters who are down there apparently meeting with some of them in the State Department. These are really historically very fringe characters in Alberta. To give them a platform in the capital of the world's superpower is, ridiculous. But I will just point to this. I objected to what Mr. Besson said last week,

but it could be understood. He basically said maybe we should be building a larger pipeline to the United States. I don't think you would find anybody here who disagrees. And by the way, we have gotten a West Coast pipeline built in the Trans Mountain expansion, which is going to be, I think, further expanded. The Prime Minister is committed just days ago, re-committed again to building a new West Coast pipeline. And Premier E.B. is admitted he can't stop. that. So, you know, I think that those are all positive signs, but Mr. Palliev and I think people from all Canadian parties have to be clear that the U.S. has to keep their nose at a Canadian politics. Monty Soltberg, how do you see Pollyev's position on this issue? I mean, he's not the only leader,

it's not only the leader of the opposition. He's an Alberta MP, at least, for the time being. Yeah, no, I think he has to be clear. I think he needs to quite publicly, uh, denoucally. announce, you know, these efforts from the U.S. government to sort of breathe life into the separatist movement in Canada. And, you know, politically, it's just, it's just wise. If he wants to ever reach those accessible voters that we talked about earlier, he has to be absolutely clear that he will not, you know, put up with that kind of thing within the conservative party. And I think that's right. you know Jason knows better than most that the Americans you know playing footsie with the Americans certainly with this administration but even previous ones you can't count on the

Americans to follow through on commitments so you know it's just completely unwise to give any credence at all to what we're hearing from Scott Bessent from from the President of the United States and from some of the people that have gone to Washington allegedly representing Alberta's interests. There have already been two floor crossings by Conservative MPs. How concerned are you both about more? Well, I think, you know, Mr. Polio shouldn't say that he should always expect that something like that could happen.

I think that it's unlikely, but not impossible. I do not, look, I keep in touch with a lot of members of the Conservative Congress. served with many of them. I don't hear widespread discontent. That would lead to any significant movement like that. But you always get one or two people who, for their own personal or aberrant reasons, decide to go in a different direction. And that's just life in politics.

Mr. Solberg? Yeah, that's right. You know, it's always difficult when you're the leader of the opposition. I think Stephen Harper called it the most difficult job he's ever had. because you don't have the power necessarily to hold your members and give them some of the perks of the job that you have on the government side. That said, you know, we've been through that round. The liberals tried their hardest to persuade more people to come over. That hasn't happened so far.

But it'll also be in the back of the mind of Pierre and his team that they need to show that they can win more people over. and be in a position to form government after the next election whenever that comes, and it could come very quickly. As Mr. Kenney alludes to, Mark Carney is attempting to pave the way for another pipeline to the BC coast. They're also looking at cutting the carbon tax, bringing in new affordability measures. Mr. Solberg, how does the Liberals' direction change the conservative strategy? Well, you know, it matters. I mean, we've seen a bump in the polls for the Liberals.

in the last little while, partly because of these overtures to Alberta, the MOU on pipelines, all of that kind of thing. But it really, you know, it really, it's easy to write an MOU. It's very difficult to put everything in place and win approvals

and do the things that they, you know, need to do to actually make all of this come to fruition. So it really is up to Mark Carney, Premier of Alberta, Daniel Smith, to follow through on these things. And that, you know, doing that would, I think, finally give Alberta a feeling that maybe there is a place for Alberta at the table in Confederation. You know, this is really what's at the root of so much of this discontent that we're seeing and, you know, the potential for a referendum on sovereignty in Alberta. So if they can follow through on that, great. It'll be great for Canada, secure our future, both energy-wise and militarily, frankly.

And I think Canadians really want to see that happen. Mr. Kenny, do you think the liberals want Polyev to stay on as leader? Well, they don't get to choose. And, you know, they'd be making a big mistake if that was their attitude. This is the leader of the opposition who did more than anyone to drive Justin Trudeau out of office to create a very compelling issue set around affordability, inflation, housing, fiscally responsibility, taxes, the government's soft on crime agenda, the normalization of dangerous drug use, and a whole range of issues.

He expanded the Overton window. He created that entire issue. that the liberals had to respond to both by defenestrating their leader and flip-flopping on a whole range of long-term policy commitments. So this is a very, and the conservative leader who won the highest popular vote share in four decades. So this is not somebody for them to be dismissive of or to underestimate. They would do so, I think, at their peril. I think we'll have to leave it there, but we will be watching tonight. I want to thank you both for helping us look ahead and anticipate Mr. Polyev's leadership review. Thank you.

Thanks very much. Thank you. Monty Solberg is the head of New West Public Affairs and a former conservative MP. Jason Kenney is also a former conservative MP and the former Premier of Alberta. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.