The Current - Protests in Georgia as talks to join EU halted

Episode Date: December 3, 2024

Thousands of protesters have taken to the streets in Georgia, after the country’s incoming government halted talks to join the European Union. Eurasian expert Stephen Jones says the country is facing rising authoritarianism, and a choice between Europe or Russia.

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On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. It's not gunfire. Those are fireworks. But it is not a celebration. That was the sound in Tbilisi on Sunday night. Thousands of protesters gathering outside Georgia's parliament, many draped in the red and white flag of their country and in the blue and gold stars of the European Union.

What we're protecting here is our home and our children's future and our future. We're not going to stop. If they think that they're going to scare us by fight. We're not going to stop. If they think that they're going to scare us by fight, we're not going to scare down. Protesters were out again last night demanding a rerun of October's election. Stephen Jones is a senior researcher at the Davis Center at Harvard University and the author of Georgia, a political history since independence. Stephen, hello. Hello. Thank you for being here. Why are these protesters out on the streets in Georgia? Well, this is a decisive moment in Georgia's history. They have a choice now. They have a choice between the European Union, which is what the

vast majority of the Georgian population want to become part of, or to sink into the sphere of influence of Russia. That's not the only choice they're facing right now. They're facing also a choice between a government that is choosing to restrict and constrain democracy and a path forward to greater democratization. That's the other choice they have. So there are many, many layers to this conflict that's going on in Georgia right now. But those are perhaps the two most important. As you understand it, who is out on the streets?

So now the situation is very different than it was, for example, in the springtime when the Georgian Dream government introduced a law called the Foreign Agents Law, which was an attack on Georgian civil society. law called the foreign agents law which was an attack on georgian civil society and then this was in april of this year um many many hundreds of thousands came out on the street it was a very sort of joyful experience for people dancing on the streets but it was a resistance movement but it was largely confined to tbilisi the, and it was largely urban and driven by students. Now it's a very different situation. It's spread to all the cities in Georgia. It's gone beyond the students. Now civil servants from the various ministries in Georgia have signed multiple petitions and statements suggesting they are with the students, they are against the retreat from the European Union,

which the Georgian government is pursuing. And we've even seen bus drivers and others participating by parking their buses across the streets to create barriers. So it's spreading very quickly into other sections of Georgian society and looking very different and far more dangerous for Georgian dream than it did in the spring of this year. Why would pumping the brakes on joining the European Union bring so many people out onto the streets? Well, there are many reasons. Georgians traditionally, I would say for two centuries even,

the Georgian population has seen itself as part of Europe. This is a very, very strong feeling that's in the minds of every single voter in Georgia, every single citizen. The polls tell us about 80% of Georgians think they should be members of the European Union. So for a government to say, we are going to suspend our negotiations with the European Union about accession until 2028, you know, that is a real blow, and it's a closing of the window, if you like,

of opportunity that Georgia has to become, at last, after so many centuries, a member of Europe, a member of the community of nations of Europe. So that's extremely important to Georgians. Also, they look to Europe, of course, as a place for security and prosperity, security from Russia. That's very important because, of course, Georgia and Russia went to war in 2008. So there are many reasons as to why this is so important and why it will bring people out onto the street. promised to join the European Union, but they have stepped away from that, not just now, but in recent years and been, I guess, tilting toward Russia. How do you understand that? That's a very curious question because, you know, George and Dream understands that the vast majority of the population want to join Europe. And they said that when they came to

power in 2012. And indeed, they've been saying that all along. You know, eventually we will become members of the European Union. Even when Irakli Kobakhidze, the prime minister, came out on November 28th and said, we are suspending negotiations with the European Union, he said that we will become members eventually. They understand that if they went against that idea of joining the European Union, then they would have the vast majority of the population against them. But the other part of this is the Georgian Dream government is increasingly authoritarian.

It does not fit with the values and the ideas of the European Union. Should they become members of the European Union, they have to abide by the laws of the European Union. That would mean transparency. That would mean greater diffusion, division of power in Georgian society would mean reversing many of the laws that they've introduced that are restricting the space for democracy. So joining the European Union would lead to them losing their power. So this is another reason. What's the role of the founder of Georgian Dream in this? He's a billionaire. He's an oligarch. He lives in a glass mansion, keeps sharks and zebras as pets. What is his role in all of this? Well, he's the major role. He is the gray cardinal.

He hasn't actually been elected. He's got an unofficial role as the honorary chairman of the Georgian Dream Party. He's unaccountable. But he is the richest man in Europe. He's a plutocrat and an autocrat all rolled in one. And he has the ability to determine government policy right now he feels aggrieved against Europe because he's been in a long dispute about his money in Credit Suisse. He also has a very strong Russian background. He made much of his money in Russia

when he became a billionaire. And probably, probably, he fears for his life, I think, because he understands what Russia can do, could do, he understands what Russia can do, could do, if he doesn't make some concessions to Russia. And one of those concessions is to keep the European Union at a distance.

You mentioned the Prime Minister of Georgia. He gave an interview to the BBC on Sunday in which he claimed that Georgia actually is not suspending talks on integration with Europe. Have a listen. Nobody has suspended anything also until 2028. It's just a lie. It's the opposition and it's the opposition media outlets who are just lying to these people. But you suspended this until 2028.

No, it's not true. He says it's a lie, that it's not true. Well, that's not true. That in itself is not true. Yes, he did. He made that announcement on November 28th. It was clear to all. He's backtracking because clearly the reaction was unexpected. I mean, I suspect they knew that people would come out on the streets in Tbilisi because it's a very unpopular decision. What they didn't know was that there would be such an enormous resistance that would spread beyond Tbilisi, that would go into other social groups, and it would threaten the very existence of the Georgian Dream government.

So, you know, it's a very, very serious situation. You've got on the one side the Georgian Dream, which now the opposition is declaring illegitimate government because they claim the October 26 elections were fraudulent. That was the parliamentary elections. And on the other side, you have the Georgian president, Salome Zubrubishvili, who with the opposition parties is claiming to be the real government and that she will not leave her position as president, which she should do.

I believe on the 20th of December, I cannot remember the exact date when she should leave, her constitutional period comes to an end, she is now saying, I will not leave. So you have two governments, you have two different groups, one is arguably more powerful than the other, George and Dream right now, because they have the police behind them. But you have two groups, both of which are claiming to represent the sovereign people. She's also claiming, the president, that Russia is waging a hybrid war in Georgia

through means of disinformation and propaganda. Do you see the finger of Russia in this? Oh, most certainly. Russia has great influence. You know, in 2022, when the war intensified against Ukraine, then between 100 and 200,000 Russians came to Georgia thousand Russians came to Georgia to escape the war. And in that 200,000 Russians or so, we suspect there were many Russian agents. There are about 70,000 Russians still in Tbilisi, in the capital. Many of those will be Russian agents, as I said. They also, Russia has, of course, great experience of the hybrid war through social media, and they're exercising their power through Georgia's social media.

They also have great influence through the Georgian church. The Russian Orthodox Church and the Georgian Orthodox Church are aligned. They have the same very conservative values, and Russia is using the Georgian Churchill toes to support its position. Russia, however, of course, is distracted right now by a major war in Ukraine. So it's very unlikely that there would be any military attempt to occupy Georgia. attempt to occupy Georgia, but they can exercise power through political means,

which they are doing clearly. Just finally, you mentioned Ukraine. Do you see similarities? People have drawn similarities between what we're seeing right now on the streets of Georgia and what we saw in Ukraine in 2014 and the protests there

that ultimately brought in a Western-leaning government, if I can put it that way. Do you see similar? Yes, I do. I mean, obviously, there are many differences between Georgia and Ukraine. But in terms of the sort of knife edge of this battle on the one side between Georgian people in the streets and the government parallels what happened in Ukraine in 2014. However, I must say it's not yet at that stage of violence that we saw in 2014. People call that a revolution.

Yes. It depends what you call a revolution. I'm an academic. I could talk to you about the definition of revolution. Yes. It depends what you call a revolution. I'm an academic. I could talk to you about the definition of revolution for hours. What we see in Georgia is an insurrection, I believe. In other words, the Georgians are not Georgian people on the street. They're not asking for some sort of social or even political change. They're asking for the ousting of the current Georgian government.

I'm not sure I would call that a revolution, but it's a powerful, popular movement to overthrow the current government. Do you think they'll be successful? Personally, I do, yes. And the reason I do is because I can see signs. There are cracks in the establishment of Georgian Dream. As I said, many ambassadors have resigned. Many civil servants are resigning,

including from the Ministry of Interior. You know, this is a very serious situation for Georgian Dream, and it's totally unexpected for them, I'm sure. I suspect they're panicking. I suspect they're packing their suitcases, and they're looking to see which country they're going to end up in. Stephen Jones, really glad to talk to you about this. Thank you for your insights. Thank you so much. Stephen Jones is a senior researcher at the

Davis Center at Harvard University and the author of Georgia, a political history since independence. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.