The Current - ‘Shock and awe’ expected on Trump’s first day in office

Episode Date: January 20, 2025

Donald Trump is set to sign as many as 100 executive orders on his first day in office. We discuss the potential fallout if he enacts campaign pledges on mass deportations and tariffs that could devastate Canada’s economy.

There is no shortage of scam artists and true crime. But I'm guessing you've never heard of one quite like Caitlin Braun. For over two years, Caitlin Braun conned more than 50 birth workers into thinking that she was pregnant. I'm Kathleen Goldtar, and this week on Crime Story, I sit down with Sarah Trelevin, the host of the con, Caitlin's Baby. Find Crime Story wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current Podcast.

Donald Trump taking office today means Canadians could be facing 25% tariffs at any moment. Experts and lawmakers have warned that this would be devastating for the Canadian economy. Last week, premiers finalized a plan with the Prime Minister on how Canada would respond. Alberta's Danielle Smith was the only Premier who did not sign on to that agreement. She is in Washington, DC today.

Also there is Ontario's representative in Washington, David Patterson. He'll be watching the inauguration from the Canadian embassy in Washington. David, good morning. Hey, good morning, Matt. There is a large pile of executive orders that are waiting in the Oval Office

for Donald Trump to arrive. He said he's going to sign them this afternoon. From what you have heard, how likely is it that tariffs against Canada will be part of that pile? I think it's very likely. And he's been saying that all through the election. And clearly we saw his social post saying it'll be a 25% tariff.

And I think what I've learned through my career is as you watch people like Donald Trump, you should take them at their word and be prepared. So is there anything that you can do at this point to tell Americans this is not good for us, and it's certainly not good for you? Well, we certainly for the last year, I've been here in Washington for the last year, and you know the message is we should not be turning our guns on each other and tariffs, we should be turning them outward together

against China. And that has been fairly well received amongst Republicans as well. But I think we are where we are with a chilly wind from Canada coming down here to Washington today. So we have to be prepared and I think we are. How much more complicated is your job when all of the premiers are not speaking with the same voice? Well, I've been working closely with Alberta for the past year. My great friend, James Rajat, represents them down here. And I'd say that our work has been really complimentary along the way in terms of the people that we meet and the things that we do. Let's see what the tariffs say first, and then we can determine what the sort of progressive strategy is in terms of what we need to do.

Hopefully you don't need to retaliate, but we're we're prepared if we do need to. And I think we're probably more prepared with kind of more impact than any time in Canadian history. Right. And so let's be ready. The issue is, is whether Canada is divided or not. I mean, the man who sent you down to Washington,

Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, said country first and that we need, we as a nation need to put this country first. And his suggestion was that Daniel Smith is not doing that. So how much more complicated is your job when you have premiers who are freelancing, going down to Mar-a-Lago on their own,

but also saying they're not going to sign on with a plan that other premiers, including premiers of oil and gas producing provinces like Saskatchewan, have signed onto. Yeah, I mean, with respect, Matt, I don't think, I don't look at it that way. I don't think that at this point, I think that's a focus of a lot of people in Canada down here. I don't think it's very much focused at all. I think we're going to have to see what we have, but right across Canada amongst the premiers, there is more than enough retaliatory gunpowder here for us to make an impression. And just Alberta alone in terms of its oil exports

will be making an enormous contribution by telling Americans that a dollar at the pump is the response to tariffs just by their application. There's a more complex response here than just us wringing our hands over whether everybody is saying exactly the same thing. I don't think that's, with respect, really the issue. The issue is, is Canada ready to stand up? Are our businesses standing up with us? And how will Americans talking to Americans respond to this? So those are the things that will make a

difference in terms of dealing with this. We go forward. Doug Ford has said that tariffs could mean the loss of around 500,000 jobs for his province alone. Are those numbers sound to you? Yeah, I think they are. I mean, um, you know, you know, that's similar to the types of job impact we saw in 2009 when we saw the threat

towards the auto sector. And I think those numbers are spread out beyond the auto sector into so many of other areas that are just totally integrated with the United States. And so this time, as we look at that, you know, there is a strategy to do countervail tariffs right away. And that's sort of agreed with the federal government, but I think it's going to be potentially incremental. And probably the most impactful thing that hasn't been done in the pact is the notion that you could withhold certain

things that the American economy can't function without. So hopefully, as I say, we don't turn our guns against each other. We turn them outward towards China and that a more sane approach will land, but yeah, it's going to be an interesting period of time. Do we need to have, I mean, the hope is that you

don't have to use those tools, but do you need to have things like Doug Ford has mused about cutting off energy supplies to states that rely on energy coming from Ontario. You know the auto sector very well and know how many times, for example, parts go back and forth and back and forth across the border before a vehicle is actually produced. Do we need to be willing, we as a nation need to be willing to restrict those things to prove how serious this is to the Americans? We could be. And I think there's a preparation to do that if need be.

And so, you know, it's a very serious situation. Let's not mince words. I think we all understand that just because of the economic impact. And we need to analyze exactly what comes out today and then respond accordingly. We've been running an ad down here for a long time talking about how we're the best of neighbours through wars and through all kinds of things. People love the ad. I think they'll be really shocked to find out, uh, uh, what, uh, things are like if we have to, uh, move to the next stages.

Are we still the best of neighbors? Donald Trump has said, we don't need their stuff. We don't need the things that they produce. Um, he's talked about, I mean, how, how a relationship could change based on, on what he wants to do. That's not how friends treat each other, is it? No, it's not. So treat each other, is it? No, it's not.

So is that relationship still as close as we like to believe it is? I don't think it is when you have those types of threats for all the work that we've done to try and make sure that we build an economy together. This isn't what neighbors send out to each other, but that said, you have, we build an economy together. Um, this isn't what neighbors send out to each other, but that said, you have to respond to it and be ready to respond to it.

I think we are. I think, you know, we've heard Doug Ford standing up saying Canada is not for sale. And, uh, when things like this happen, you have to stand up and I'm proud of them for doing that. Changes the dynamic of the relationships you have in Washington though, when something like this ends up on the table, doesn't it? Yeah.

And thank goodness I've had a year here with all my business and other allies to make sure that we've got great lines of communication that, you know, state by state, the 17 that have us as their biggest customer are very aware of this. They're watching this in Congress. And frankly, we should keep in mind that there's a aware of this. They're watching this in Congress. And frankly, we should keep in mind that there's a lot of things the president can't do without

Congress right now. I think the reason we're in this pickle in the first place is not really because of his attitude towards Canada. I think we're being more sideswiped because he needs to pass a tax bill. And so that tax bill, which is central to him, needs a revenue source and he's looking for tariffs and the doge with Elon Musk to deliver that. Well, he needs Congress as well to pass all those things. So we'll see. We will see indeed. We will talk again. David, it's good to speak with you this morning. Thank you. Likewise, Matt. David Patterson is Ontario's representative in

Washington DC. As we heard during his campaign, President-elect Donald Trump pledged to overhaul immigration in the United States. He promised mass deportations for migrants living in that country. Andrew Seeley is president of the Migration Policy Institute. It's a nonpartisan organization that focuses on immigration policy. Andrew, good morning to you. Good morning. Good to be with you. It's good to have you here. Donald Trump's border czar has talked about a shock and awe campaign. The suggestion from some reporting is that this could begin in Chicago in the next couple of days.

What do you expect to see in the coming days and weeks as Donald Trump starts to implement this immigration policy? I think we're going to see some, some very public shock and awe campaigns. And what, what, what does that mean, public shock and awe? Yeah, I think that means doing some raids in workplaces. We're gonna see 100 people grabbed here, maybe going after a few people who were tied to gangs in some other places.

They won't be large numbers overall, because it's very hard. I think we shouldn't underestimate how hard it is to find and deport people that are in this country without documents. It's 3% of the US population and 5% of the workforce. But we're going to see some dramatic visible pictures of people being rounded up.

Then comes a second wave where I think they are going to build up the ability to locate and deport people. Again, it'll be a fraction of those that are in this country, but I think it will build up over the next six months and we'll see the numbers go up. And then we're going to see an attempt to do some really transcendental changes. I mean, I think we'll see an executive order today on birthright citizenship. Anyone born in the United States, as in Canada as well, is a citizen of the country. I think

they will at least declare today that that is not the case. That'll wind its way through the courts for a long time. But if it holds, it becomes a major change. And, you know, that's a year, year and a half down the road. But, you know, so I think you'll see some dramatic efforts here that don't get big numbers, but they look dramatic. Then you will see the numbers increase.

And then you're gonna look over time and see that they're really gonna do some things that affect immigration and immigrants in this country. How do you think Americans will respond to, he's talked about using the military, for example, for these deportations. How do you think Americans will respond to the images of workplace raids and what could follow from that?

Not well, I mean, my, well, initially, I think there's gonna be a positive reaction to some of this because it's, you know, Biden sit well initially, I think there's going to be a positive reaction to some of this because it's you know, Biden actually never understood President Biden did not understand the degree to which this was creating a backlash in American society, the number of people coming across the border. So there will be some positive response. But I do think once the military gets involved, once their pictures of families being torn apart, that will create a backlash as well. And you know, in the same way Biden undershot and sort of misunderstood that the American public cares about order and control, I think the Trump administration is likely to overshoot

the other direction and misread the U.S. public, which does want control, but also wants it done with fairness and humanity. So I think there will be a pushback down the road and we have to see how that plays out in terms of their plans. Before the election, it was down in Arizona and met with a family who came to the US from Mexico almost 20 years ago. Their youngest daughter was a year old

when they arrived as undocumented migrants. She's essentially grown up in the United States. They have a business, they pay taxes and what have you. What happens to people like them? What happens to someone like her? Someone who spent almost her entire life in the United States? You know, I think that's gonna be

the real dividing line here. Americans are mostly comfortable with people who have come recently being deported, anyone that had a run in with the criminal justice system, you know, they may draw the line on, you know, we don't want people with traffic infractions, but you know, anyone who's certainly involved in a in robbery or violent crime being deported, people are comfortable with folks that have gone through due process and had a hearing and got a deportation order being deported.

I think it'll be different if you start to see people that have been here 20 or 30 years, grown up here, who are deeply integrated, who either have basically had American lives or American children getting deported. I think that's where you will see a pushback for the American public because there is sort of an element, in general, Americans are very much in favor of immigration. They see it as part of what makes this country successful,

but they also worry that there's been a loss of control of the systems for managing who comes into this country. If Donald Trump goes from one, from creating integrity in the system to really tearing apart families that have been here a long time, I think that's a, I think that's a dividing line where you'll see the public mood shift. I mean, the other complicating factor here is that immigrants help keep the country running, whether it is in food processing, whether it is in construction,

whether it is in lawn care, child care, the list goes on and on and on, that immigrants documented or undocumented are a huge, play a huge role within the American economy. So what happens to that economy if, for example, 11 million people get pulled out? Yeah, I think that is, I don't think they can get 11 million even in their, you know, even by the

fourth year, but I do think they could get two, three million. I mean, I do think they could get that far. And I think the, you know, as you say, the American economy very much depends on immigrants. Immigrants are twice as likely, almost twice as likely to start a small business as the native born for lots of reasons.

These are very entrepreneurial folks who've made it to the country. That's legal and undocumented, legally present immigrants. They're hugely involved in innovation technology, and they're just a part of lots of sectors, agriculture and construction and care work. I think you'll see a pushback from the business community and hopefully, you know, my suspicion is the pushback won't be as much about illegal immigration. It'll be about can we create visas that allow people to come and allow people who are already here to stay in the country. And I think that will be the next round. So I would expect a year and a half, two years of real activity

against immigrants that are here illegally. But then you may see the business community and, you know, parts of immigrant communities begin to push back. And mayors, I think mayors and governors in Republican states actually push back and say, we really need to have some legal ways for people that are here to stay here and to bring in new folks that we need for our economy. And hopefully that becomes a real conversation.

Just finally, before I let you go, I mean, again, one of the things we learned down in the Southwest and elsewhere in the United States is that there is support for what Donald Trump is doing from recent immigrants as well. People who, and this is what we heard, people who say, well, we came through the front door and we are not interested in supporting those who might have come through other means. What does that tell you about how complicated this issue is going to be going forward? It is really complicated.

I mean, what happened in the Biden administration is it got to the point where almost as many people were coming through the back door as the front door. Not quite, but it was getting close for the first time in recent history. And that really created some antibodies against immigration, particularly people that weren't coming through the front door. Now, what's true is that the front door

has gotten harder to go through, right? As the economy has expanded, we have not expanded the number of visas available. And so the real question is, if you're going to close off the back door, can you also expand the front door and make it more possible for people to come legally? And that's a deal that I think most Americans would

be willing to make. But the politics of getting there are gonna be complicated. Andrew, good to speak with you. Thank you very much. Thanks so much. Good to be with you. Andrew Seeley is president

of the Migration Policy Institute. It's a nonpartisan organization that focuses on immigration policy. Canadians have plenty of reasons to pay attention right now but not everyone has a daily news habit. So if you're hoping to build one we're here to make that really easy. I'm Marcia Young. I'm John Northcott and we host World Report. Give us ten minutes every morning and we'll give you the biggest stories

happening in Canada and around the globe. Whether you're tracking wildfires, leadership races or threats to our national sovereignty will help you understand what's going on. You can find and follow World Report wherever you get your podcasts. Ben Proto is the Connecticut Republican Party Chairman, also in Washington for the inauguration. He's in line now to try to get into that

inauguration. Ben, good morning to you. Good morning, Matt. How are you? It's good to have you back on the program. Thank you very much. How are you feeling today? Cold. Probably not as cold as up there, but it's a little chilly down here. Yeah. This has led to a complication in terms of what's going to happen today. Wherever Donald Trump speaks, what are you hoping to hear from him? today, wherever Donald Trump speaks, what are you hoping to hear from him? I think we're hoping to hear more of what we heard throughout the campaign, that we're going to be looking to put America back on track, solve some of the problems that we're having.

America has become, particularly in my state, in Connecticut, has become tremendously difficult to afford with rising energy costs, rising food costs, rising insurance costs, rising energy costs, rising health care and child care costs. And so I think a lot of people are going to be looking forward to hearing about how we're going to get the economy back on track, get job being created, wages increase, and putting Americans back in the driver's seat as opposed to the government driving for Americans. He made a speech yesterday at this victory rally in which he talked about a lot of that. He talked about securing the borders and deporting millions of illegal immigrants, ending inflation,

making America affordable again, talking about how we'll fix everything that's gone wrong with America. making America affordable again, talking about how we'll fix everything that's gone wrong with America. What makes, those are, that's a big long list and those are high issues. What makes you confident that he can actually achieve some or any of those promises? Well, I think if we look back to his first term, you know, the American economy was really, you know, going along very well. Job creation was at an all-time high, wages were at an all-time high, unemployment was at all-time lows,

particularly among African Americans, Hispanic, and women. His, you know, our tax cuts were really driving a wonderful economy, people were doing well. Obviously, we got hit with COVID towards the end of his term and I think people you know what the I think the biggest issue that we saw in the campaign was the inability of Ronald Harrison the Democrats to answer a very basic simple question are you better off today than you were four years ago and the reason they put the answer is because the answer is no. People are looking to get back to where they were and I think

Donald Trump really I think has learned a lot in the four years that he was not in office about how to do it better than he did in the first time. He did it pretty well the first time around. You say how to do it better. One of the things that people are wondering is whether the chaos of his first time in office will follow him this time around. He has had impeachments, he has had investigations into his conduct, staff and government officials coming in, going out.

How worried are you about the chaos and that that chaos that we saw before could impact what you're hoping to see this time around? Look, I think, you know, we've seen a lot of chaos over the last four years as well between a lot of the lawfare stuff going on, not only with Donald Trump, but, you know, with the Biden family. But the other side of it, I think, is I think you're going to see between a lot of the lawfare stuff going on, not only with Donald Trump, but with the Biden family. But the other side of it, I think, is I think you're gonna see

a much smoother administration this time. Again, there's a lot to be learned from the first time around. It's interesting, it's a historic moment for us. Other than Grover Cleveland, we've never had a president be elected, lose, and then elected again. And so to have that four-year period

where we watch the Biden administration truly fail Americans, I think Donald Trump and his administration are gonna take a lot of lessons from that to be able to move this forward in a much more positive way. I guess one of the things that people are worried about when it comes to the chaos is, for example, the Supreme Court ruling that presidents

have absolute immunity for acts committed as president within their constitutional purview. And people wonder whether, whether Donald Trump could take advantage of a ruling like that. You know, it's interesting. Could Donald Trump take advantage of it? Sure. Could Joe Biden have taken advantage of it? Could any president?

So everyone kind of keeps coming back to Donald Trump's going to do this and no one else is ever going to do it or ever did do it. So I don't think we're looking at anything new or different that actually existed prior to the Supreme Court ruling. It just took it to get there. I don't think you're going to see that really impact the way the Trump administration is going to move forward. I think he's going to be laser focused on the economy.

He's going to be laser focused on the border and immigration issues and really kind of making America safe again, you know, in trying to solve our crime problems. We're watching this very closely in this country, in part because this is, you know, the largest story in the world, the transfer of power in the United States, but it's also

going to impact us with the possibility of 25% tariffs on everything that we sell to the United States. Do you think that Canada is still the closest neighbor and friend to the United States? I do. Excuse me. I do. I think a lot of people do. But I think the other side of it is that I think what President Trump is basically saying is we want fair trade.

And we're willing to trade with you, and you're willing to trade with us on fair terms. And if you're not willing to trade with us on fair terms, then we're going to impose some, we're going to use some of that to our advantage as well. I think at the end of the day, I think President Trump understands the importance of Canada and Canadian-American relationship. And I think it's gonna continue to be a good one. I think, look, you, Canada will all do respect at the moment.

It's in a little bit of political turmoil with Trudeau stepping down. we'll all do respect at the moment is in a little bit of political turmoil with Trudeau stepping down. So we're going to see where that new leadership comes from and what direction that's going to go in. So I think once we kind of get past that, we'll have a better idea of where Canada wants to go and how it wants to get there and how it wants to work with the United States. I'll let you get back to the line, but let me just ask you finally. Half the country is in favor, in many ways, those who voted are in favor of what Donald Trump is going to do or the fact that he's in power, but there's a huge part of the country that did not vote for him, that dislikes him, but is also fearful of him and fearful of what he might do.

What would you say to, because the polarization narrative isn't just an academic one. It's seen in the votes and it's seen in the protests and it's seen in how people respond. What would you say to that side of the population that did not vote for Donald Trump? Certainly I would say to that part of the population that didn't vote for Joe Biden or for Barack Obama

or for George W. Bush or for any president. Ultimately, at the end of the day, we have a system in place to elect our president of the United States. That system has worked for us pretty well for 250 years here. And I think the opportunity to change the direction of our country is sitting in the Oval Office at about 1201 today and I think if you give them the opportunity to do that you're gonna be real happy with what shows up. You're expecting big change right away? I'm not well I think

not right away I think you've got yeah I think over the course of the term we're gonna see it I think he's gonna do some things today that are gonna start the ball moving forward obviously we have to get his cabinet officials through their process and confirm to get the agencies up and running in the direction he wants them to move in. I think as we do that, we'll begin to see the change come about.

Some of it will be very quick and some of it will be incremental. Ben, it's good to talk to you again. We'll let you get back into line and hopefully you actually make it in. Everything is kind of all in flux given the weather, but I appreciate you being here. Thank you, man. You have a good day.

And you. Ben Proto is the Connecticut Republican Party chairman waiting in line to try to get into that inauguration.