The Current - The Syrian government fell — what comes next?

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

Rebels took control of Syria’s capital on Sunday, sparking celebrations there and around the world, at the end of the Assad family’s 50-year dictatorship. A foreign policy expert says the regime��s swift fall is shocking, and a Syrian-Canadian describes it as a “moment of joy.”

In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news, so I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with Season 3 of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy.

On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is The Current Podcast. Long live Syria. Assad has fallen. Celebrations erupted across Syria and around the world yesterday. They came after a stunning rebel advance seized the capital of Damascus Sunday morning, toppling Bashar al-Assad's regime and putting an end to his family's 50-year rule. Assad oversaw Syria's slide into civil war in 2011 after brutally suppressing

a mass pro-democracy protest movement during the Arab Spring. Sorry, this is the freedom for Syria. We pay a huge, huge price for that. I have goosebumps all over. I couldn't sleep all night. We have been waiting for this moment for 14 years and it's finally here and we can't, we just can't believe that it's truly, this is our reality now. Assad has fled the country. The Kremlin says he's been given asylum in Russia. In a moment, we'll talk more about what this all means for the region. But first, I'm joined by Tarek Haddad. He came to Canada as a refugee from Syria in 2015. He's the founder and CEO of Peace by Chocolate. He's in our Halifax studio.

Tarek, good morning. Morning, Matt. Thank you very much for having me. You posted yesterday on Instagram, it feels like a dream. What went through your mind as this news was unfolding? It certainly felt like a dream. It was a moment of relief.

It was a moment of joy. It was a moment of happiness. It was a moment of just thinking and reflecting on the past 14 years, even the 50 years before I was born, how much pain everyone in Syria had to go through just to celebrate. They didn't ask for much. They just basically asked for human rights, for freedoms, for democracy, for civil liberties. And everything basically just came together in a moment of celebration that I actually never thought it would come true in my lifetime, especially after all that has happened in the past decade.

And seeing my family scattered in 27 countries right now because of that dictator that is now gone, I think there is a lot of hope in the air. What specifically were you thinking about? I mean, when you reflect back on not only your own family, but as you mentioned, the last 50 years, what specifically was going through your mind? I was thinking about growing up in Damascus and being afraid all the time. The fears looking over our shoulders for every single word that will come out of our mouth. Seeing how my grandfather was always telling us that walls have ears, my mother,

I'll just give you an example there, Matt. When I was nine years old, my toothless sister, when she was eight, would be on taxi rides in Damascus. I would look out, I would say, when I am 40 years old, I become the president of Syria and I will make you my prime minister. And my mother would look at us terrified to death from the front seat in that cab. And then she would say, you can't say that you can dream of becoming a president or a prime minister in this country.

These things are not for us. They are for the Assad family only. The walls have ears. The walls have ears. And everyone grew up with these, you know, we have pictures of the dictator in our classrooms, pictures of the dictators in our notebooks, pictures of the dictators on the streets, names of the public places, the amazing libraries, the streets, the squares, the buildings. Everywhere you would go at the airports, you would see him. So it was not only a relief, it was really, I think, a rebirth. Syria is really going through a rebirth right now after 50 years of living through darkness. So it's certainly a marvelous moment to celebrate.

It is worth sitting back and just reflecting on all the things that will come true, that will happen. I remember also in 2012, I was in medical school at Damascus University. And me and my friends would be going out wearing lab coats and carrying flowers asking for the release of our friends, security forces, regime forces will come, will break into the campus. They will kill many of my friends. They will arrest the rest. And we didn't know what happened to them.

They disappeared. And just last night, we discovered there are three floors underground in a mass slaughtered place in a prison called Saydnaya, which is on the outskirts of Damascus. So we are extremely happy. We're extremely excited. Hopefully they will be alive like many of my family members that they went missing over the past decade. As you mentioned, your family is scattered around the world because of the civil war. because of the civil war. Tell me about, and you've hinted at this,

but how close the war came to you and how you still feel the effects of that war. It all started in 2011 with just peaceful protests. And then people basically were fed up with the use of violence by the regime. In 2012, it turned into a war that reached Damascus. And I remember the closest experience that came to me in 2012, in the middle of the summer, I came back from a training at the hospital, and then I had supper with my family. We went to bed in the middle of the night in July, a beautiful summer night. And then we started hitting explosions. Helicopters were hovering over hovering over us tanks and soldiers were setting up checkpoints and these regime soldiers were breaking into each

house in the neighborhood taking every man between the age of 18 and 60 years old lining them them up against the wall and they were shooting them in front of their kids and their families just because they were afraid that these young men will become rebels, that they will fight the regime, they will fight the dictator. So my family, they were all terrified. We went to the basement of my grandmother's house. We were standing for five nights. There was not even a room for all of us.

We were 60 members of my family living in that building. So we were sitting there for five nights without food, without medication, without the basics of life. And then on the sixth day, there was a ceasefire for an hour. And then my family all left the building, and now they are basically scattered. That's how my family got out of the country. But then my father said, no, we have to stay. This is our homeland. I said, Dad, it's a war.

He said, I have a chocolate factory to run. And I said, Dad, it's a war. He said, I have a chocolate factory to run. And I said, Dad, it's a war. He said, people need to be happy. So my dad was that kind of a leader that he didn't really want to leave the country. Many Syrians did not want to leave the country. My sister didn't want to leave the country. And she's still there, by the way. So it's incredible, just to see it all unfold right now in a very short period of time, as we have been seeing on the news. But I think it all goes back to 2011, 2012, when really we started shaking the basis of this unlawful regime. What are your hopes for Syria now, and for your sister,

who, as you say, is still there? What are your hopes for the country? I really hope that Syria will come out of this stronger. I really hope that the resilient Syrian people will be able to come out of this and start rebuilding, start seeing what works and what doesn't. I think Syria comes from a place of an advantage right now because it is not too late. However, I always, you know, I'm optimistic. I'm very hopeful. I see that Syria is learning the mistakes of many countries that have gone through significant change like Tunisia, like Libya, like Egypt, like Yemen, many of them who even that did not go into

a war like Egypt, for example, and really see that what works is an institutionalized country. What works is the elimination of sectarianism, the elimination of bigotry, the elimination of intolerance, by really promoting a moment of reconciliation and supporting these civil liberties for those who are the most vulnerable in the community, really healing, just sitting back and healing. And really, I think that no matter what happens next, Matt, there's nothing worse, nothing worse to my homeland

than what happened over the past 50 years. Nothing worse than seeing almost 13 million people refugees or displaced inside the country. Nothing worse than seeing 600,000 people killed in 12 years in my own country. I really think that Syrians now, they know that they have to come together to find and build a country that they will be proud of very soon.

I really hope my, you know, I'm a proud Canadian citizen now. I really hope that I will get the chance to proudly tell my children in the future that I don't have yet, that they can go back and visit the homeland and really just be proud of the incredible heritage of the civilization and the culture that Syria is very proud of.

Damascus is the most ancient inhabited place in the world, and I'm very proud to have been born there. But Syria is my home by birth. Canada is my home by choice. And I always try to make sense of these two. Just finally, you are one of those people who was scattered by this war, one of the people who came to this country as a refugee. You posted on social media yesterday,

now every person who used to be known as a Syrian refugee is a Syrian, just Syrian, a free and proud Syrian. Is that how you feel? Absolutely. I feel that we are so proud to be Syrians, free Syrians, no matter where we are. So many of us are proud Syrian-Canadian, Syrian-German, Syrian-Turkish, but I really hope that we can all go back to our roots because my grandmother used to always say, you have to know where you came from to know where you're going. It's good to talk to you as always, Tarek. Thank you very much. My pleasure, my friend. Thank you. Tarek Haddad came to Canada as a refugee from Syria in 2015.

He is the founder and CEO of Peace by Chocolate. He was in our Halifax studio. In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner, and I'm back with season three of On Drugs. And this time, it's going to get personal. I don't know who Sober Jeff is.

I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on U.S. foreign policy, particularly in the Middle East. He's in Washington, D.C. this morning. Good morning to you. Good morning. Thanks for having me. The cliche is that regimes fall slowly and then all at once. Are you surprised that this happened so quickly? Yeah, I am. This is the second event in more than a year, October 7th being the first,

where powers large and small, analysts, I put myself at the top of the list, former government officials, and current intelligence agencies, with perhaps the exception of the Turks that had a liaison relationship with HTS, Hayat Tahrir Hisham, the main rebel group that's driving their military successes. I think we miss this. There's no question about it. Some will argue, well, we should have known it all along. But I think people were surprised by the hollowness of the regime, the fact that the Syrian military, undersourced, underpaid, under-resourced, essentially collapsed. And HDS had spent the better part of a year, maybe longer, preparing better military equipment, better motivated.

So I think the combination of those two things, plus the distraction and diversion of Syria's main external allies, the Russians in Ukraine, Iran with Israel, Hezbollah with Israel. All of this, I think, created an opportunity. But make no mistake, this was driven by Syria. This is an example of an extraordinary moment when Syria may actually regain a certain degree of agency. Whether the headline, however, becomes a sustainable trend line, I think really is the issue. The track record here is simply not inspiring. In Egypt, the overthrow of Mubarak led to an even more repressive regime. In Libya, the overthrow of Gaddafi led to divisions in the country, which a decade later are still incredibly accentuated.

In Yemen, the overthrow of Abdullah Saleh led to confusion, dysfunction, and the rise of the Houthis. And in Iraq, which is probably the best example, the fall of Saddam led to, I mean, it's hard to describe. Iraq is a success in some respects, but a disaster in others. So that's the real key to me. Rebelling is hard. Governing, particularly in this region where you have five or six Arab states in varying forms of dysfunction and failure, is harder. How concerned, I was going to say, how concerned should people be?

I mean, there are these extraordinary scenes of, you know, political prisoners being freed after decades of being held in prison, facing torture and worse. You have scenes of people taking selfies in the couches of the presidential palace. But how concerned should people be about this group, this rebel group, HTS, which has been designated by many governments, including in the UK and the United States, as a terror group? How concerned should people be about that group? Well, you know, behavior is everything. So, you know, Abu Muhammad al-Jilani, his real name is Ahmed Shara, born in Saudi Arabia, parents who resided in Israeli-occupied Syria, that's why he chose the name Golani from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, formerly with links to both ISIS and al-Qaeda.

I think over the years, Jolani has demonstrated a certain degree of moderation. He's an Islamist, and his principles are very conservative. Other groups are more directly extreme and probably derivatives of both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Again, you know, a movement is going to have a hard time controlling a country of 23 million people, a country that is virtually bankrupt, a country where you still have external meddling on the part of the Turks. And I suspect the Iranians will find a way since the Syrians owe them hundreds of millions of dollars in debt, and the Iranians have provided concessionary oil to Syria, I think that Iran will find a way to sort of try to maintain its influence.

So you have a coalition of Islamist groups in the south. You have ISIS in the central desert, which is still a real concern. desert, which is still a real concern. And again, I don't think HTS can govern and rule Syria functionally. I think you're going to have to have a political tradition. You're going to have to count on, you know, the hundreds of thousands of Syrian bureaucrats, police, security forces, and that raises the question of how much vendetta retribution there's going to be against the al-awiyah minority that ruled Syria for decades so it's a heavy lift it's an extraordinary moment I don't think anyone can predict right now the trend lines of where we're going to be in Syria a year from now.

I want to remain optimistic, and I think there are factors that perhaps could point in that direction. The inclusiveness of ATS, the fact that they've let the international press in, the fact that they pledged protection of minorities, they sent a delegation to Latakia, an Aloi area along the coast in order to reassure the Iloi minority. But again, all of this is, I think, going to play out one way or another in the weeks and months ahead. What do you make of what Donald Trump, President-elect, has said, posting on social media? This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved. You know, I worked for Democrats and Republicans, half a dozen secretaries of state. I voted for

Democrats and Republicans. In my view, you can consider this a partisan comment or not. I don't think Donald Trump has a clear conception of what I would describe to you as the American national interest. His policies in Trump 1.0 were subordinated to any number of things. His policies in Trump 1.0 were subordinated to any number of things. His financial interests, his vanity, his politics, his whims and fancies. Those tweets suggest, I think, an inclination, a predisposition not to get involved. He wanted to pull the 900 Americans that are deployed in eastern Syria out. He was talked out of it. He may not be talked out

of it this time, which raises serious questions about his administration's commitment to doing what is necessary to at least 900 Americans isn't going to stop ISIS from arising. But a measured American role, I think, is really important. So, again, I think right now, I would say Donald Trump is not going to be a a huge ally involved in the war, involved in the bombing of Syria. It has two very important bases in Syria as well. So what does Vladimir Putin do? It's not just a distraction. It's a seminal issue facing Russia today, and Russians seem to be winning in many respects. I think that the Russians will try to find a way to preserve their warm water port on the Med at Tartus, the Russian air base at Hmeymimim. They'll try to negotiate working with the Turks, perhaps work out whatever central government arrangements with whatever central government emergency. But remember, it is Russia that gave sanctuary to the head of a formerly kleptocratic, brutal,

authoritarian drug dealing regime. And I think that's clearly not going to go down well with the new Syria. Aaron David Miller, good to speak with you. It's a fascinating story. We will be watching this unfold. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me. Appreciate it.

Aaron David Miller, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.