The Current - The US has captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Now what?

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

After a months-long pressure campaign, the U.S. military stormed into Caracas this weekend, capturing Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. We look at what this means for the future of Venezuela—with Phil Gunson, a senior analyst for the Andes region of the International Crisis Group and Luis Duno-Gottberg, a Venezuelan scholar, and the Lee Hage Jamail Professor of Latin American Studies at Rice University.

Viking. Committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship, with thoughtful service and cultural enrichment, on board and on shore. Learn more at viking.com. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. It was dark. The lights of Caracas were largely. turned off due to a certain expertise that we have. It was dark and it was deadly. Two hours and 20 minutes. That is how long it took for the U.S. military to storm into Caracas on Saturday morning and capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores. The dictator had been in power since 2013. It is a stunning culmination to the U.S. military's months-long pressure campaign on Venezuela. And while many Venezuelans are thrilled to see Maduro go, there are already real fears about what this means for the future of their country's sovereignty.

We can't really celebrate something that we don't know in what direction this is going to go. We don't want anybody to run our country. You know, we want Venezuela to run our country. U.S. President Donald Trump says Venezuela is now being run by the United States as Maduro awaits trial in New York City for drug and weapons charges. He's expected to make his first court appearance today. Phil Gunson is a senior analyst for the Andes region for the International Crisis Group. He lives in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, and that is where we have reached him.

Phil, good morning. Good morning and happy new year. And glad to have you back on the program. What have the last 48 hours been like in Caracas? For me, extremely busy, as you can imagine. Yeah, very strange, very strange times. We weren't, I suppose, entirely shocked when the bombs and rockets started falling because that had been very prominently touted by President Trump for weeks before. and we'd almost got bored with hearing the threats that it was going to happen imminently.

But I think what was most surprising was that, as you were saying, you know, the kidnapping of Maduro at the same time and done so apparently efficiently and swiftly. There has been some reporting that perhaps the United States received some help from inside Maduro's inner circle. What do we know about that? Well, we really don't know anything about that in terms of confirmed information. I mean, it does certainly seem remarkable that they were able to carry out this operation, particularly the extraction of Maduro and his wife, Celia Flores, apparently so relatively easily.

I mean, of course, a lot of people died in that. Apparently, many, many of his Cuban bodyguards, for example, were killed in that operation, but no U.S. service people apparently were killed. But I'm skeptical about the idea. I mean, I think there are reasons to think that, yes, there might have been internal. collaboration but the idea i think that you know that dulcie rodriguez or anybody else from the from the present government simply handed maduro over i'm i'm i'm skeptical i don't know i think we we need to wait and see you mentioned delsi rodriguez who is in charge of venezuela right now well it isn't

don't it isn't it isn't don't trump no it's not well i mean i mean they're not here i mean i'm you know i'm hearing carrackas and the people who are running venezuela you know the same government is before minus Nicolas Maduro. I think when Trump says they're running the country, what he means is the present government in Venezuela will have to do what the U.S. says, or there will be severe consequences. I mean, he's threatened them with the second wave of bombing, which he says would be much worse. He's threatened implicitly to kidnap Delci Rodriguez in the same way as he kidnapped Maduro if she doesn't behave. So that's the sense in which the U.S. claims to be running the place. Delsi Rodriguez is close.

allied with Nicholas Maduro and in the immediate aftermath of the assault's early Saturday morning had called what had happened an abomination, an atrocity. This morning, she put at a statement inviting the U.S. government to collaborate on what she calls an agenda of cooperation saying that Venezuela is looking for balanced and respectful relations with the United States. What sort of tightrope is she trying to walk here? Tireope is a good word to use, I think. I mean, when Trump says that Delci will essentially do whatever he says, it's a lot more complicated than that. I mean, for a start, Delce Rodriguez, of course, has, I mean, as the vice president, and as you say, somebody who was extremely closely associated with Nicolas Maduro and whose political origins, her ideology, totally aligned. I mean, they come from the same far left group in Venezuela many decades back.

But of course, she is, to start with a civilian, she doesn't have the army necessarily at her command. The people you have to watch, I think, primarily will be the defense minister, General Vladimir Padino, and the interior minister, Diosao Cabello. These are the guys who control the guns that control the army, the police, most of the intelligence services, potentially as well, the collectivos, these armed civilian groups that support the government, who were. on the streets of Caracas yesterday. What about the opposition? You have Edmundo Gonzalez, who is the opposition leader, saying in a statement on Sunday that he

is the president of Venezuela, and he called for political prisoners to be released. There's also Marina Karina Machado, opposition leader, just received the Nobel Peace Prize, who has been in exile and in hiding. Where are they now, in terms of the political structure of Venezuela? Yeah, I mean,

Edmondo Gonzalez is correct to say that he is the legitimate president of Venezuela. He was elected in July of 2024 by a large majority of Nicolas Maduro, who simply refused to accept the result. I mean, basically claimed that he won. But of course, you know, D'Mundo Gonzalez is in exile in Spain. Mara Corina Machao went to Oslo to collect her Nobel Peace Prize and remains in Europe. I think she was in Paris. I'm not sure where she is now. But of course, she received a real bucket of cold water from Trump the other day on Saturday when he gave his press conference, basically said she's a nice lady, but she doesn't have what it takes to run the country. So we're going with Delcie Rodriguez. This is really a turnaround. I mean, from the medic, Marikarina Macha

was counting and the opposition was counting on regime change, which would install them in power. What is that about, do you think? I mean, when she accepted the Nobel Priests, in some ways she accepted it on behalf of Donald Trump and said that he saw her, saw him as a real point of inspiration. He has kind of made similar comments before Sunday. What do you understand about his change in tone? Yeah. That's say it's a bucket of cold water because the relationship was not so much with Trump personally, the relationship, the personal relationship was more with Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State. But certainly, she had expressed total political alignment with Trump. He had been a lot more vague about her.

But certainly there was a sense that this was being done, not on her behalf, personally, of course, but on her behalf as representative, Venezuela, in opposition and the rightful president. What it's about, I think, is that simply, and Trump has said this more or less explicitly. Mariquitao could not guarantee a transition because she didn't have the support of the armed forces. And without an agreement with the armed forces, there's no transition possible in Venezuela. The suggestion is also that Delcia Rodriguez has command over the oil industry and that that's what this is really about. And Trump has, again, explicitly spoken about this, including last night on Air Force One, that the United States wants to have some control at the very least over the largest oil reserves in the world, which are in Venezuela. That's right. And Delci is the oil minister, as well as being now president, she is in charge of the oil industry.

Although that could change. It depends on how this new setup works out in the absence of Maduro, how the different factions within the government divide up power and spoils, if you like. But I think beyond the fact that her formal title involves control of the oil industry, there's the fact that she and her brother Jorge Rodriguez, who at least until now, has been the president of the National Assembly, the parliament here, they have a more open approach to economic affairs. They're more interested in opening up the economy to foreign capital, more interested in liberalizing the economy,

but certainly not interested, so far as we know, in any kind of political opening. When you and I spoke last month, one of the things that you said was that many people believe in Venezuela, they want change. They saw that in the election that Nicholas Maduro stole, but people don't want that change to be violent. What are they afraid of now? I think the first source of apprehension is the same people remain in power. And it's not at all clear that what the U.S. is ostensibly attempting to do, which is to carry out a transition in association with, in alliance with the current government, it's not at all clear that that's going to lead to any kind of relaxation on the political front, or even in the short term and possibly even the

medium term, to any kind of economic recovery. And of course, this is a country suffering a very severe humanitarian crisis. So that is the fear. And of course, the big, you know, the absence, the empty chair at the table here is precisely the Venezuelan opposition in representation of that vast majority of Venezuelans who want to see change. If this is all going to be a, you know, fix between Donald Trump and Delci Rodriguez and the people around her, then what is in it really for Venezuelans is, are their interest really going to be taken into account? I'll let you go, but just briefly, what do you think is next? You have Donald Trump, again, on his plane, musing about Colombia, talking about an assault

on Colombia. His words are, it sounds good to me. He's been talking about Cuba. He's been talking about Greenland. You can imagine that there are many Canadians here who are paying very close attention to what's going on here. What do you think happens next? Well, that's right. Well, I don't think Canada is going to become the 51st state, if that's any reassurance. But, you know, joking apart, I mean, broadly speaking, this is certainly a message for the whole region. And in particular, the region south of the United States border, the Caribbean, Central America, certainly northern South America, and perhaps the rest of the region too.

The message is very explicit. it's you do what we say. We are in charge. We have hegemony in this region. We're going to restore U.S. power and authority over the countries to the south. And everything will go fine, provided you align with us and do what we say, but otherwise the consequences will be very severe. Now, you know, that ought to cause, in my opinion, a strong and united regional response, but the region is divided. And the region's, you know, multilateral organizations, the regional bodies like the OAS, like SELAC, are divided.

And so there is no coherent response. And that in itself is very worried. Phil, we'll talk again. In the meantime, thank you for this. Thank you. Phil Gunson is a senior analyst for the Andes region for the International Crisis Group. He was in Caracas. Viking.

Committed to exploring the world in comfort. journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship with thoughtful service and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. Learn more at viking.com. Hey there, I'm David Kahnman. If you're like me, there are things you love about living in the GTA and things that drive you absolutely crazy.

Every day on This Is Toronto, we connect you to what matters most about life in the GTA, the news you've got to know, and the conversations your friends will be talking about Whether you listen on a run through your neighborhood or while sitting in the parking lot that is the 401, check out, this is Toronto, wherever you get your podcasts. Luis Dono Gottberg is a Venezuelan scholar and a Lee Hague Jamal professor of Latin American Studies at Rice University in Texas. Luis, good morning to you. Good morning, and thank you for having me.

Thank you for being here. You are, as I mentioned, Venezuelan. And so what was your immediate reaction when you saw that the American? had removed the president of your home country? Yeah, it was a, on one level, it wasn't a surprise. All indicated that they were rehearsing to do something on Venezuela. There were open threats and all the attacks to the boats coming off the shore of Venezuela suggests that they were rehearsing for something.

So in a way, it was something that we were expecting to happen. At the same time, concerned, concerned for the people of Venezuela, and outrage at some point. Regardless of the opinion that we have about Maduro's brutal rule and the need of change in the country, the attack was a brutal attack, right? I think most Venezuelans won't change, but the idea that a foreign country would attack, you know, several parts of this of the country, you know, and especially Caracas in the way they did, was scary, yeah, scary for the family, for friends and so forth. The opposition leader, Maria Carina Machado, had written an open letter to Venezuelans this weekend, saying the time for freedom has come. How free do you think Venezuela is now?

Well, after this attack, two things have not happened. First, the state apparatus. still intact. And the other thing that has not happened is that the recognition of Venezuelan sovereignty has not happened. You know, the people who won the election was having been recognized, have been dismissed. And there has not been any indication that the destiny of the country and the wealth of the country is going to be in the hands of Venezuelans. So those two things are very concerning. So that letter, in a way, way is a necessary gesture, but it seems to clash with the things that are happening, you know, and the signals sent by the current U.S. administration.

What are you most worried about? We're speaking with Phil Gunson about who is actually in charge. You have the opposition saying that they will take power. You have Donald Trump saying that Delsey Rodriguez will be in power and that she will do what the Americans say or a fate worse than perhaps what happened to the, man who is now in custody and going to be facing an arraignment could fall on her head. So what are you most concerned about here? So there are several elements that are concerning.

The first one is that nothing changes, right? The fact that there hasn't been any violence in the streets of Caracas, in the streets of Venezuela, suggests that the state apparatus still intact and controlling the country. that's one source of concern another source of concern is that the current government becomes just an instrument of Trump

it's like now we have a chavista Trumpian government that's another source of concern a third source of concern is that the country may enter in disarray and violence you know it's possible you know there's a lot of weapons industry

of Venezuela and governance is a concern in any transition. So those are the three things that come to mind. You have a situation where something like 70% of the people in Venezuela live in poverty. There's a humanitarian crisis. An enormous number of people have fled the country because of that crisis. What do you think Venezuelans want in this moment? Venezuela's one piece for sure. Venezuelan have been living under very dire circumstances for decades, especially during the Maduro regime with the collapse of the economy. Before Maduro, there was political tension and conflict and repression, but the oil prices and the flow of petrol dollars was steady. With the arrival of Maduro, Venezuela, entry in a crisis, economic crisis that left the country without

any resources, you know. Hospitals are depleted, people don't have, you know, food, and so forth. So Venezuelans want to live in peace, want to have taken care of their basic necessities, but they also want democracy, you know. They want a self-determination, and they want their autonomy to be recognized, which is not something that has happened as of now, you know, by the United States. What do you think Donald Trump wants? He has said, this is about drugs. He's also said this is about oil. Donald Trump's He's a media person

He's a reality TV show personality So there's a level of this that is a spectacle You know It's telling that one of the first things he mentioned Is that that I'm quoting I watch this literally as I watching a TV show

A television show right So there is a During the press release The first press release, you also heard this language of spectacular actions, almost like if you were watching an X-Man movie, you know. So I think there's a level of here that it pertains to the spectacular dimension of politics, you know, either a distraction for the issues that are happening within the country, you know, or presenting himself as a strong leader and so forth, even if that contradicts his promises of not to engage in foreign wars. So that's the first element. The second element is very clear. It's resources. I don't think the people who had been killed have been picked up from the streets of Caracas, and they were already talking about extracting oil and making, quote, a lot of money.

So between spectacles, between a politics of spectacle and gaining control of the largest oil reserves in the world, I think that's where you could find an objective for Trump's action. We're out of time, but just very briefly. Is there anything in this moment that gives you hope for a better future for your country of Venezuela? I do. I think Venezuelans keep on fighting for democracy, for participation. People are active, you know, in the streets, writing, talking about the issues, there is talent to run the nation

and I think the recognition of that and that autonomy and the sovereignty of the of the country give me hope. Luis, I hope we have the chance to talk. Cautious hope. I hope we have the chance to talk again about that cautious hope and what might follow it.

In the meantime, thank you very much. Thank you. Bye-bye. Luis Dono Gottberg is a Venezuelan scholar and the Lee Hague Jamal Professor of Latin American Studies at Rice University in Texas. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca slash podcasts.