The Current - Tim Caulfield on finding truth amid the information chaos

Episode Date: January 9, 2025

How do you figure out what's true, in a time when misinformation is rampant? Timothy Caulfield looks at how our information systems became so chaotic in his new book The Certainty Illusion: What You Don't Know and Why It Matters.

This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination-focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. With a variety of voyages and sailing dates to choose from, now is the time to explore Europe's waterways. Learn more at Viking.com. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current Podcast. In some ways, there has never been a better time for knowledge than right now. There are more researchers than ever looking into all possible fields, and information technology means that

we can find and share that knowledge much more easily. So why do we end up swimming in stuff like this? Raw milk is packed with way more nutrients than pasteurized milk. It slams with vitamins, nutrients, minerals, and probiotics. The general public is not ready for this. Scientists have just discovered an entire world beneath Antarctica, and it's like nothing ever seen before. These frequencies are dangerous because they negatively affect the human bio-energetic

field. And this field can be measured on machines, scientifically. Three to four times a year, we deworm our pets. You should be deworming yourself in addition. Physical worms are like tapeworm, flatworm, roundworm. Deworm yourself, that's a public service message. It can be hard for even experts to sift through the information chaos swirling around us.

Experts like Timothy Caulfield, a professor in law and public health at the University of Alberta, says the combination of misinformation, bad science, deliberate corruption and lies have actually created an information environment that is, in his words, completely and truly messed up. He actually uses much stronger language than that. His new book is called The Certainty Illusion, Why You Don't, What You Don't Know and Why That Matters.

Timothy Caulfield is with me in our studio in Toronto. Good morning. Thanks for having me on. Thanks for being here. As you say, our information environment is completely and truly, and I can't use the word that you used because I would no longer be on the radio, but tell me why you believe that we should live

in this golden era, as I say, where we have access to more information than ever and yet what we're looking for we can't trust. Yeah, it is a remarkable, remarkable and depressing time. Even as I was writing this book, Matt, the topic of the book became more urgent, week to week. Look, I really think we're in the midst of or the beginning of a knowledge crisis, a knowledge creation crisis, a knowledge distribution crisis. And part of the issue you touched on right off the top, part of it is because we are bombarded with so much information so often, we crave certainty, we crave clarity. And because of that, they've become valuable commodities.

So all of the tools we normally use to find that clarity are now, have been commodified, have been twisted, have been used and exploited to deceive us. And the kind of depressing reality is, increasingly our information environment is rigged against us. And that sounds grim. I know the book is not all dark. I try to have a lot of fun with this topic, believe it or not, but it really is a fascinating and scary time. Is your sense, and I wanna talk about how it's rigged and how we get to this place,

but is your sense that people generally are, do they value knowledge? Do they value the truth? Are they looking for what is actually there that is real? I think so. And look, trust in science has eroded, trust in our traditional knowledge institutions, you could put it that way, it has eroded, but still, still, Matt, if you look at the surveys, it's, they remain among the most trusted voices. What did the pandemic do to that? Do you think? Oh, it definitely had a, a, a, it was an inflection point. You know, I think it was that we were already starting to see that erosion occur.

Uh, but there's no doubt. And again, research backs this up that we started to see a greater erosion. And part of that, and I think, you know, mostly that is the result of the spread of misinformation. Misinformation mongers, you know, seeking to create distrust, use this opportunity to create distrust. And, you know, some of that's state actors even.

But that created a um, a situation where people are uncertain to, you know, where they should go for accurate information. It's hard in part because, and you talk about this, this idea of things that sound sciency. When something sounds sciency, where does that lead us? Yeah. And Matt, again, there's, there's good research to back this up. So if you use sciency words, you put it on the side of a bottle of shampoo, all of a sudden it seems more fantastic, right? So,

you know, microbiome, stem cells, genomics, precision has become a big sciency word. Quantum. Quantum is everywhere, right? Quantum, you know, healing, quantum massages, quantum diets, quantum university, Matt, I don't know if you know that, that actually exists. And it's because it gives this veneer legitimacy. And I think it's important, and I argue this in the book, you know, the enlightenment won, but it won as a branding exercise, right? It didn't really win, you know, when you have politicians talking about immigrants eating cats and dogs

and, and fires being caused by lasers from space, it didn't win in a substance level, but it certainly won as a branding exercise. You know, no one says our product has less science, our product has less evidence. On the contrary, they use fake science, they use twisted science, they use science as an advertising tool, and alas, it works. There are bad actors that are polluting this environment as well, and part of what you flesh out in the book is this idea that there is pressure

on the scientific community to make its work relatable and readable. What's wrong with that? Yeah, and this is actually an area where I've done a lot of research for decades actually on science hype and the problems with the research economy. You can put it that way. Look, there are nefarious forces afoot pushing misinformation, but in this respect, it's really about a systemic pressure on researchers, even myself included, to produce

research quickly, to produce research that has immediate relevance. And unfortunately, that can lead to science hype and facilitate scienceploitation. The reason the phrase stem cells is so sexy and sounds so cutting edge is because of the hype around stem cell research. Same with microbiome, same with precision medicine, you know, nano, you could go, you can think of a million words that now are advertising tools.

And I think it's really problematic. We need to rethink how we incentivize research. In the book, you know, I argue more quality, more quality, less quantity, more quality, less quantity, more informed, thoughtful knowledge translation, I think that's becoming increasingly important, less hype. What's our role in this, in the media?

In goosing that and taking that hype and kind of using the megaphone and kind of blasting it out there. Well, for sure the media has played a role. Early days of my research, I did a lot of studies on how the media portrayed all these topics. And less than ideal, to be honest, especially with the headlines. But here's an interesting thing, Matt. One of the first studies I did on this topic was on gene hype, geno hype, I called it.

And it was, Matt, it was actually, most of the hype came from the mouths of the researchers interviewed. We did a similar study on stem cells, and most of the hype came from, the journalist actually did a reasonable job of saying, okay, here's one side, but, and I'm not pointing the finger at my wonderful colleagues, they're under pressure.

So when a journalist says, when is your stem cell therapy going to be in the clinic? They go, you know, five to 10 years, because that sounds far enough away, you know, that it's reasonably possible. But that's almost impossible. Like that is in science, that's a blink of an eye. In that study, we found that 70, almost I think it was 69% of researchers said that our Our basic science is gonna be in the clinic in five to 10 years, which is impossible. But then Matt, some clinic in Mexico or some clinic promising stem cell therapy

for your face can take that hype and sell a product that clearly isn't ready for the clinic. You talk about one researcher in particular in your book. Tell us a little bit about Dr. Olivia Dahl and what we might learn from Dr. Dahl. Yeah, I call her Ollie. She's a really productive scholar. She's done some interesting publishing

on a variety of topics, including the benefits of abdominal massages. benefits of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of, of? Hence the abdominal massages. Yeah, of course. It's very important. Tummy rubs. And why this is such a great story is a researcher, Mike Dab in Australia,

used this to highlight the phenomenon of predatory journals, bad journals, bad academic journals. And this is becoming a huge issue that many people in the public may not be aware of. There are these low, low quality journals that don't meet the standard of traditional academic peer-reviewed journals. You can just pay to get anything published, but man it looks real, right? And the fact that this dog can be a reviewer and publish articles and sit on editorial boards is a good example of how low the standards actually – no, I don't want to make fun of my friend Ollie, but the standards are pretty low. I mean, it's a good story, but what does it do?

How does that impact us? This may sound like it's an esoteric issue for the academic world. No, no, no. Number one, there are unproven therapies and ideas and controversial topics that are justified using these poor quality articles and studies. So it can deceive us, right? You might be getting something that you think is science-based and it's not. Number two, you know who's paying for those journals?

You are with your tax dollars. You know, most of the, these are researchers using publicly funded grants to get their work published. And again, I get the desire and the need to publish. And sometimes they don't even realize it's a predatory journal, right? They don't know that Ollie the dog is reviewing their paper. And the third reason, and the bigger reason is this erodes our knowledge base. It's just bad for society.

And bad for trust. Yeah, this polluted scientific literature. I mean, one of the things that you pointed out in the book, and this goes back to us, is that people are often attracted to this idea of being ahead of the curve, right? That they think that they can see the real, we saw this during the pandemic, but you see it constantly.

I can see the real truth. I've done my research and I know better than you what the actual truth is. What drives that? What do you think is the hook for people to, to feel like they can see something that other people can't? Well, I actually think there's a lot of layers to this and you're absolutely, there's a

phenomenon called the Galileo Gambit, right? You know, they thought Galileo was wrong and you know, you're right because you're wrong. Yeah. Right. Uh, and you're, you're wrong. And you're right because you're wrong. And you're a hero, you're a fighter, you're outside of the convention, you're not falling subject to group think. You're seeing this play out in the United States right now.

100%. Right. And so you're right because everyone thinks you're wrong. And you see even people who have had their articles retracted because they're fraudulent. The study is fraudulent or, or it's just poorly done. They've they view that as a badge of honor because it shows they're outside the norm, right? They're, they're not suckers for the meta narrative.

And, um, I think that's a very enticing story and it really makes, because people think of science that way, these big breakthroughs that, but all those breakthroughs were tested against science. They didn't, the people who put them forward, Galileo included, didn't ignore science. You know, on the contrary, you know, they didn't go on podcasts and rant about being

silenced, you know, they didn't go on, on social media and say they're being censored. Uh, they didn't go on social media and say they're being censored. They use good science to prove their point. And so I actually think that should be a red flag whenever someone uses that as a justification to as why they're right. And you know, the tens of thousands of scientists out there are wrong. So the man who could be in charge of health and human services in the United States, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., you shake your head as I mentioned his name. How worried are you? He's a hero to a lot of people. I just tremendously, tremendously, I was horrifying. It doesn't seem real. It's like a nightmare.

Do you think there's anything of value that he will bring? He talks a lot about the Food and Drug Administration and that it's been captured by Big Food. Is there, if you squint, is there anything of value that he will bring? You know, I find this sane washing strategy that we're seeing by lots of media around this. And I don't know if they just feel, oh my god, it's so depressing.

We've got to find something to feel slightly hopeful about. This is a really problematic position. Number one, his inability either willfully, he knows he's doing this, or it's some kind of strategy to ignore science. He's ignored the science about vaccines, he's ignored the science about HIV, he's ignored the science about, you know, go down this list and come to very dangerous conclusions that harm people, that actually harm people. To put that individual in charge of these other complex issues is just not a great idea

in a liberal democracy. And all these other issues that he's kind of getting credit for, you know, chronic disease, these, I'm a public health researcher, people have been screaming about this for decades. He did not invent these issues. It's like he's trying to position himself on the high road. People have been, you know, even the current head of the FDA who's leaving soon has been screaming about this. It's just become political branding in order to somehow position them as the

good guys and everyone else as the baddies. And alas, Matt, it's working. There's this idea of humility. I mean, it comes up, why what you don't know matters in some ways, the subtitle of the book. Why does humility matter in this kind of conversation? It really does. And again, empirical evidence to back this up, I talk about scientific

humility in the book. Um, recognizing that science is hard and just really the accumulation of knowledge is hard. And there's many things that you don't know is a fantastic, um, quality to have. It's associated with not falling for misinformation. It's associated with making more correct decisions and from an evidence perspective. And it's also associated with making more correct decisions and from an evidence perspective,

and it's also associated with changing your mind when the evidence changes, which should be, Matt, a badge of honor. It's a superpower. You should be willing to do that. This is not flip-flopping. This is not something you should be ashamed of. And in the book, I suggest an exercise we should all do is make a list of things that you've changed your mind about or modified your position. And in the book, my list is pretty long. It's longer than that outside the book. And if you can't do that, see the chapter on narcissists, right? Because you should be able

to do that because science is always evolving and changing. It's messy. Um, and, uh, unfortunately, unfortunately in this cultural moment, that's held up as a weakness, right? Changing your mind. You have to stick to your position regardless of what the evidence says. I read a story the other day about raw water where people are driving on the side of the road and they're stopping at a cliff face and getting a bottle of water there because they figure that that water is better than the water that comes out of their tap. That is an example of a health halo that you write about in the book. What are health halos?

It is. And someone asked me the other day if you could add one thing to the book that you know, because this area is moving so quickly, that would be it. The word raw. People are eating raw liver, raw testicles, Matt. They're eating raw testicles. They're... To each their own. Yeah. Raw milk, raw milk and raw water. And I think this idea of raw has become really enticing because it's the cousin to natural, all natural, right? So raw means it hasn't been interfered with by the evil bureaucracies that run our world. It has almost a political element to it.

Um, it's another health halo. So if the word raw is on there, allegedly it's better for you. Raw water, raw water kill, it's probably going to kill a million people on planet earth, um, this year, right? Raw mostly from diarrhea. Um, clean water, you could argue is one of the greatest achievements of civilization. Right. And, uh, here we are, you know, embracing kind of a medieval science because

it's allegedly better for us. It's not just raw. You talk about what is it? The devious dozen. There are a number of things that, that labels that are applied that we, this must be good for me. Um, natural, organic, healthy, the color green. Yeah.

What's wrong with the color green? You make a package green. You probably know that it seems healthier. I followed for that. You know, there's a package of chips that are in a green bag versus I don't know, orange. Of course the green ones are healthier. Um, these health halos,

and I really try to give a little nuance to this in the book, is sometimes the science is complex, like around organic, right? It's still being debated, but that's not what a health halo is signaling definitive. And that's why I think it's so relevant to the theme in the book. It's a signal of certainty, a signal of clarity. You wanna do what's best for yourself and for your family and for your community. And we all do this, right? I'm not pointing fingers, right?

You see these labels in our chaotic information environment. It allows you to make a quick decision that you think is informed by evidence, right? When in reality, the evidence doesn't really support what is implied by the halo. This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship

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things that you can do to make your life better. And you get into in the book, a conversation around masculinity, particularly as it relates to wellness and health. I wanna play something, this is from Tucker Carlson, former Fox News personality. He's speaking with a guy named Andrew McGovern who is described as a fitness professional. If you want to optimize and take it to another level, expose yourself to red light therapy.

Yes. There's a massive amount of that. It's just testicle tanning. It's testicle tanning, but it's also full body red light therapy, which has massive amount of benefits. And there's so much data out there that isn't being picked up on or covered. Not a question that I've thought about asking, but does testicle tanning work? You can guess the answer.

The answer is no, spoiler. Yeah, this is really become another health halo in a way, Matt, this idea of being more masculine. And by the way, I've tried testicle tanning. I tried it for a documentary. I did for the passionate eye, uh, on Vancouver, uh, island. And, uh, yeah, it didn't, it clearly didn't work. And by the way, the documentary is PG.

Um, but this is, this is a really good example of promises that are made, uh, in order to make you healthier, happier, more successful. More masculine. More masculine. Quote unquote. I mean, this idea that this particular definition of masculine. Yeah, if you adopt these, and I think what you said

right there is super important. It's a very narrow, particular definition of masculinity, mostly leaning in traditional masculine norms. And that's the problem, that's the issue, right? Will being more masculine in this very narrow sense make you healthier, happier? And of course, there's no evidence to support that at all. On the contrary, most of the evidence points in the exact opposite direction. And this kind of messaging, which is everywhere. And Matt, you can make an argument, the Manosphere, as it's often called, had an impact on the election in the United States.

This is not... It feels niche about these guys eating... These are some of the most successful podcasts on the planet. Yeah, exactly right. Exactly right. And it does real... I think it does real harm. It does real harm. And also it does harm in a mental health perspective. If you were a young teenager still trying to figure out your identity, if you're a young adult, this kind of messaging can really do harm

both from a mental health perspective, but also from a health perspective. Let me just ask you a few things before I let you go. One is, it seems like you say the book is not depressing. There is a lot of humor in it, but it feels even more depressing now, or at least concerning given the news of this week, that Metta, the parent company of Facebook,

says it's gonna get rid of fact checkers, that it's gonna have a crowd-sourced approach similar to these community notes that you see on X. And the concern from people, and I'm interested to see whether you agree with this, is that this will lead to a flood of disinformation and misinformation. What are you worried about?

Yeah, I agree with those concerns. I agree with those concerns, and I'm worried about a lot. And I am worried about them stopping fact checking, and by saying that, I completely recognize fact checking is not perfect. We have to do more research on it. I have colleagues that do research on, what is the best way to fact check. Uh, and also community notes, there's some evidence that been, several studies have shown

that it can be beneficial, right? But the problem is the spread of lies and misleading information. It is a generational problem. We have to have every tool at our, our disposal to fight it. And removing this is, is clearly not a good idea. Is, is that horse out of the barn though? I mean, can they, can they, can they, can they We have to have every tool at our disposal to fight it. And removing this is clearly not a good idea.

Is that horse out of the barn though? I mean, this is the soup that we are in. Yeah. I was just going to say that more concerning for me is the ethos that you just mentioned. That you are the bad people. You are the evil people by trying to fight misinformation and we are the champions,

the good force. The momentum is horrifyingly pointing in the wrong direction. And Matt, I think it's really, really important to emphasize because freedom of expression is raised all the time in this. Fighting misinformation is not about censorship. It's not about silencing voices. On the contrary, most of the tools you use in to fight misinformation happen within the marketplace of ideas, you know, pre-bunking, debunking, you know, getting out good, engaging content that's evidence informed, teaching critical thinking skills, media literacy.

Yes, there are these rare times when you would de-platform, I'm a big supporter of freedom of expression or use other regulatory tools. Those are instruments of last resort, but Yes, there are these rare times when you would deplatform. I'm a big supporter of freedom of expression, or use other regulatory tools. Those are instruments of last resort. But calling yourself a fighter as Zuckerberg did for freedom of expression, again, very intuitively appealing and fits

with the politics of the day. I have to let you go, but very briefly, just in the last 30 seconds or so that we have, which is one piece of advice for people who are listening to this thinking, what am I supposed to do you go, but very briefly, just in the last 30 seconds or so that we have, which is one piece of advice for people who are listening to this thinking, what am I supposed to do? How about two? Just recognize the degree to which the system is rigged against you, but don't get cynical.

There is good evidence out there. There's good evidence-based voices that can be found. Always think of what the body of evidence says on a particular topic. There is a path forward. If it's too good to be true, it probably is? Probably is. Timothy Caulfield, thank you very much. Thank you, Matt.

Timothy Caulfield, Director of the Health and Law Institute at the University of Alberta. His new book is The Certainty Illusion, What You Don't Know and Why It Matters. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.