The Current - Trudeau’s stubbornness helped his rise — and his fall, says former adviser

Episode Date: January 7, 2025

Justin Trudeau’s stubbornness and self-confidence helped his rise to power, but have served him “incredibly poorly on the way down,” says Gerald Butts, who was once one of the prime minister’s closest advisers. Matt Galloway discusses Trudeau’s resignation and legacy with Butts and Monte Solberg, a former Conservative cabinet minister under Stephen Harper.

This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on a Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination-focused dining, and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. With a variety of voyages and sailing dates to choose from, now is the time to explore Europe's waterways. Learn more at Viking.com. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. As you all know, I am a fighter and I am not someone who backs away from a fight, particularly when a fight is as important as this one is. But this time, Justin Trudeau's fight is over.

After almost 10 years of leading the country, 12 as leader of the Liberal Party, the Prime Minister announced yesterday he's stepping down. It has become obvious to me with the internal battles that I cannot be the one to carry the Liberal standard into the next election. Parliament has been prorogued until the 24th of March, buying the Liberal Party time to pick a new leader.

Justin Trudeau will stay on as Prime Minister until his successor is chosen. The opposition parties say they will take down the government as soon as they can when Parliament returns, which would force a spring election. We will hear from a former Conservative cabinet minister in just a moment, but first I'm joined by Gerald Butts. He was Justin Trudeau's principal secretary during Trudeau's first term and played a big role in getting him elected in 2015.

He's now vice chairman at Eurasia group. Gerald, good morning. Good morning, Matt. First time caller, long time listener. Glad to have you on the program. Thanks for being here. Um, particularly in this moment, and there have been calls, as you know, for Justin Trudeau to resign for a long time.

Those calls have recently been coming from inside the house. Why do you think he waited until now to step down? Well, I think we're both showing our age with that reference, Matt, but I think I've long had a theory about prime ministers that none of them ever retire if they think they can win another election. And the weight of that job is heavier than anybody who happens to hold it. And I think that up until a few weeks ago, Mr. Truro thought he might be able to pull a final rabbit out of the hat of his political

career. But after Christie Freeland resigned, I think he finally realized that it was time. Do you think he should have gone earlier? Well, I mean, I think it's hard to say that he left at the appropriate time, if I can put it that way. Matt, it would have been a much more orderly transition for most importantly the country and certainly the party, had he gone sooner than he did, but I also don't want,

I know how difficult those jobs are and I don't wanna be one of those people screaming from the sidelines, but it's hard, it's hard to look at the circumstances the country's in now and not say we'd all be in better shape had he gone last spring. Knowing him as you do, how much responsibility do you think he takes for where the party is right now? I think he, like most politicians at the end of their political careers, he's trying to put into perspective the full sweep of his career, right? So it's easy to say at a low moment in politics that you're responsible

for the bad times. But I think he's also trying to put it in perspective that the Liberal Party he took over in 2013 was certainly not the Liberal Party that you and I grew up with. It was in third place at its lowest electoral ebb of our lifetimes. And he also, I think, understandably wants to be recognized for bringing it from that position into a majority government. But there's no, you know, there's a reason we're all still reading Shakespeare, or at least interested in Shakespeare. These narrative arcs are eternal and with tragic heroes, the things that serve them incredibly well on the way up often serve them incredibly poorly on the way down.

And in Mr. Truro's case, I think that's his admirable stubbornness and self-confidence, which had he not possessed those qualities in spades in the spring of 2015, when the party went from competitive in the polls to third place after Rachel Notley's election in Alberta, I'm not sure we'd be having this conversation right now. You wrote on Substack recently. These are your words. In happier times, Mr. Trudeau was a scrappy young leader with an admirable sense of optimism about both his country and his party.

What happened to that Justin Trudeau, do you think? Well, maybe my political idol and my first mentor in politics, Dalton McGinty, used to say that governing is corrosive to your idealism, that there are things that you have to manage every day and you're beset by problems from all sides. And it's easy to become focused on every difficult challenge you're dealing with. And I think that over time, those things accumulate and they're a grind, Matt. They affect the way you look at the world.

They affect your body language and posture. And I think that's why most politicians have a natural best before date. And prime ministers in this country, that seems to be somewhere in and around plus or minus a year to 10 years. Well, it leads in some ways to, I mean, this is a question that I asked Justin Trudeau when he was here in this studio, which is why so many Canadians dislike him. This is a personal thing.

It's not so much about, I mean, maybe there's elements of the party, maybe there's elements of larger politics, but he himself has become a lightning rod. Why do you think that is? Well, I think he's a big personality, right? And that happens to people in politics, that it's almost a law of nature. I don't think political science is a science like physics or chemistry, but there are certain universal trends that seem to be observable for all politicians of a certain type.

And I think Justin's been the main character of this drama for a long time and people are tired of the drama. How much of that is self-inflicted do you think? There is a sense now from many Canadians that he is skated by the anger that people feel. The sense that they feel burned by the economy, that they are on the wrong end of a cost of living crisis, that they can't afford housing and what have you.

How much of that anger do you think is self-inflicted? That's a hard question to answer, Matt. I think there are a couple of things I would say in my work these days, and I've been at Eurasia Group, I've been out of this for five, almost six years, as you know. When inflation started, we did a study of what happens to incumbent governments in inflationary periods. And this is going to sound really nerdy, but I'll translate it in a second. We found that if an incumbent government were to go to the polls within 36 months of inflation's

peak, they were two standard deviations more likely to lose that election. And it turns out that we did that study in the summer of 2022. And since then, every government didn't matter whether you were a social democrat in Finland, a British Tory, whatever it was, the Bolsonaro was in Brazil, everybody lost. And there were a few exceptions. was that Bolsonaro was in Brazil, everybody lost and there were a few exceptions. I think it's almost definitional to the personality of political leaders that they think they can buck trends.

After all, they're the leaders of their countries and the odds of that happening in the first place are pretty long. They think that they can be the one exception to the rule. And it normally takes a lot of reality to set in before that they change their minds. And I think with Justin, it took until Christia resigned in the way that she did for him to become fully aware that his electoral prospects were very dim. I guess just the last point on this, do you think that he missed that anger the Canadians feel?

I mean, whether you agree with him or not, the polls at the very least would suggest that Pyropolev has tapped into something, that he's channeling or at the very least has recognized that anger that many Canadians feel. Yeah, I think that's true. And I think that the government and the prime minister have for a long time thought or hoped

that that anger would abate as the economy improved. Unfortunately, that's not normally what happens with inflation. And I think you're seeing that and you have certainly covered that extensively over the entire period, Matt, that once inflation abates, prices don't go down. And you have certainly covered that extensively over the entire period map that Once inflation abates prices don't go down. So people are still feeling a

Really difficult pinch on their spending power and it gets really difficult On modest incomes or even above modest incomes to manage a family budget when the costs have gone up But the revenue is stayed the same So the race is on to try to figure out who should replace him. And this goes until. It would appear so. The 24th of March, the bell has rung, the gun has been fired, whatever you want to call it. The contenders include, there's a long list, but you could have Christy Freeland, the former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney, current Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Jolie, former BC Premier Christy Clark.

You've said that if you want to know who can play hockey, put on a hockey game. What would a full leadership contest, a robust leadership contest tell Canadians? Well, I think this is one of the unfortunate aspects of or consequences of Justin leaving the decision as long as he did. The hockey game under any circumstance is now going to be truncated. To torture the metaphor a little bit, Matt,

from my perspective, I think you need as open a process as possible safeguarding for the electoral interference issues that have become apparent to everybody in the country since the last leadership campaign in the 2012-2013 period. There are going to be a lot of eyes on the Liberal Party to make sure that this is a process with very high integrity. That, of course, is an added constraint that or a special constraint, I think, that wasn't there in 2013.

But from my perspective, you have as open a process as possible, keeping in mind those guidelines, and you recruit new members to the party. It gives the party a chance to rebuild itself in the modest time allotted to it to do so. We see these various leadership contestants or aspirants competing with one another, articulating their views of the country. From my perspective, I'll be looking at how able I think each of these candidates are to stand up to Donald Trump. I think that's going to be a huge challenge for the next prime minister, whoever he or she may be.

The lesson I learned from the first term in the Trudeau government was events, dear boy events, right? As the famous cliche goes, you can get elected with a robust agenda, and then the United States elects Donald Trump, and you're spending 90% of your time trying to save the NAFTA agreement. So I think that's what I'll be looking for in the leadership campaign as just a liberal who will probably vote in it. But who do you think should lead the party?

I want to see what the rules are and who's in before I say anything publicly about that. Are you backing anybody now? It's no secret that Mark Carney is a friend of mine and I informally support him. I watched Mark deal with what I think is an almost eerily similar situation with the Brexitors. And he did a very difficult and necessary job extraordinarily well and protected as much as he could as governor of the Bank of England, the British economy and regular Britons in a very difficult period. And I think we're headed into a similar one here. So we need someone with that kind of character.

Just before I let you go, do you think with, I mean, you, you also wrote that there's Justin Trudeau has put the party back in some ways where he found it. That's in the political wilderness. The polls suggest that oblivion awaits. Do you think that with the right leader, the liberals can make a comeback with, with voters this time? Uh, I think so. I think it's a long shot to be totally blunt, Matt.

I, it's not easy to overcome a 20 to 25 point deficit, depending on which poll you look at. But I also think that a lot of the support for the conservatives is simply an anti-Trudeau sentiment. It's hard to tell how much of that is an anti-Trudeau sentiment and how much of it has bled into the fabric of the liberal brand at this point. But one thing I've learned over two stints in politics, I don't think I ever entered an election campaign in the lead. And you should never ever take voters for granted. And I think Canadians are Right. And I think Canadians are super wise people. At some point, they will take a breath from their anger at Mr. Trudeau,

realize that he is now part of the political history of the country and not its future. And they will look very closely at the candidates that the parties offer to lead them in the next campaign. And I think they'll make a judgment based on the future rather than the past. Jere, thank you very much. Thank you. It's an honor to be here. Gerald Butts was Justin Trudeau's principal secretary when he first took office in 2015, now vice chairman at Eurasia Group.

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focusing on hope, belonging and purpose. Available in hardcover and audiobook, narrated by Jane Philpott. Conservative of the Year Pierre Poliev, his immediate response to the Prime Minister's decision to step aside came a video statement and the message of that video, it won't make any difference. Monty Sahlberg is a Conservative cabinet minister, was a Conservative cabinet minister in Stephen Harper's government, is a close observer of politics, certainly in this moment. Monte, good morning to you.

Good morning. We just heard that, as I said, Pierre Poliev says that whatever happens right now, and it doesn't matter who comes in to lead the Liberal Party, Pierre Poliev believes that that won't make a difference, that this will not change the fortunes of the Liberals. Is it not good news for a party to get rid of a very unpopular leader? Well, it's always good news to get rid of an unpopular leader, but it doesn't necessarily divorce you from being responsible for that record. You know, over the last couple of years it's been obvious that Justin Trudeau has not been listening to Canadians, could not sort of reflect the anger and despair that many Canadians were feeling.

And yet the Liberal caucus, you know, continued to prop them up, prop them up through all kinds of examples of things going completely wrong, being out of step with Canadians. And now they want to say, well, we weren't responsible for any of that. And I think that's completely unbelievable and they deserve to be held to account. What will it mean for Pierre Polyov and the Conservatives not to have Justin Trudeau kicking around anymore? I mean, Gerald Butch just said that there's a question as to whether this is an anti-Trudeau sentiment or an anti-liberal sentiment.

Well, the liberals have not responded to this inflation crisis, the affordability crisis, the immigration crisis, the crime crisis, and they will have to answer for it. You know, Jerry made the point about inflation hurting governments. Well, guess what uh... all those liberals were going to be involved in this uh... leadership race

were part of that government and they have not done what they needed to do they could have pushed him out two years ago and should have pushed him out two years ago but instead despite the fact that they knew uh... he wasn't responding to uh... this urgent need to help can Canadians, they let him continue on. Does that change if someone like Mark Carney or Christy Clark, the former

Premier of British Columbia comes in? They haven't been part of this government. Does that allow the party to turn the page, do you think? Well, I think Mark Carney wants to be perceived as being part of the good things and not responsible for the bad things. He was involved going back to August as the financial advisor to the Prime Minister and certainly at his fingerprints to some degree on the economic statement that came down in December. So, you know, I think he wants it both ways. You know, Christie Clark has a better case to make but I mean both of them supported the liberals through this period and they need to Explain why they were silent through all of this and and not standing up for Canadians

What do you think Justin Trudeau will be remembered for in this country? Well, I think he'll be remembered for his stubbornness his negligence his inability to see beyond his own ego like he more so than any leader I can think of, maybe going back to his own father, has stood apart from Canadians and has been has been unwilling or unable to connect with with Canadians, certainly in the West, I will say as a Westerner. Is there anything you give him credit for? Well, no, not really. I mean, I think he's been completely out of step with

Canadian priorities. You know, he came in with an agenda that was all about the environment, for instance, and continued to push that despite the fact that circumstances on the ground completely changed. And, you know, Jerry started to talk about this to some degree, but he didn't change. He just kept pushing forward, alienating more and more people. And now we have this immigration, housing, affordability and crime crisis. And that's his real legacy. And I just ask you this in the last 90 seconds or so that we have. Does the absence of Justin Trudeau put additional pressure on Pierre Pauliev to explain beyond

the slogans how he would make life better for Canadians? What specifically he would do in this country? Well, I don't accept that it's slogans that with Pierre where he is. He's produced many of these videos explaining the root of some of the crises that we're facing today and potential ways to move forward out of this. He'll be under great scrutiny, of course. Obviously the media will hold him to account and he'll have to respond accordingly. But he's a good communicator and I think he's in a great position to, uh, position himself as the right one to stand up to somebody like Donald Trump.

Well, then that's the last question. Just very briefly, what about the position of this country with Donald Trump coming into office and under two weeks now? Where is this country in the wake of, in the wake of what we saw yesterday? Yeah, we have a lame duck prime minister who is supposed to negotiate on Canada's behalf

with somebody who has, others have pointed out, consents weakness a mile away. And, you know, that does not bode well for Canada. We could face 25% tariffs as soon as January 20th, which would put Canada probably almost instantly into a recession. So I'm concerned about this. I, you know, as somebody who watches these things very closely and I just don't see him having the,

the royal jelly to stand up to Trump and do the right thing. Glad to have you here this morning and hopefully we'll talk again. This is going to be a long story as it unfolds. Monty, thank you. Yeah, thank you, Matt. Monty Solberg is a former conservative cabinet minister.

He was in Drumheller, Alberta.