The Current - What does Pierre Poilievre’s Alberta byelection mean for Canadian politics?

Episode Date: August 18, 2025

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is anticipated to win today’s byelection in Alberta’s Battle River–Crowfoot, one of the safest Conservative seats in the country.  But with more than 200 independent candidates on the ballot and separatist sentiment simmering in the province, analysts say the campaign offers clues on what to expect when Parliament returns this fall. We hear from former Conservative cabinet minister Monte Solberg and former Alberta NDP cabinet minister Shannon Phillips.

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Today, the voters in the Alberta riding of Battle River Crowfoot get to decide between more than 200 other candidates and conservative leader Pierre Pollyev. Your right to protect and keep your firearms. That is a local issue if you're a hunter in Empress or Troshu or consort. Cutting taxes, or for example, letting our farmers have zero capital gains when they reinvest the sales, the proceeds in our communities. That is a local issue.

Reforming our prisons so that our guards down in Drumhalla are safe. That's a local issue, but it requires national leadership. Fighting against the Chinese tariffs on our canola, that is a local issue. This Alberta riding is one of the safest conservative seats in the country, so the winner is not really in doubt. but the campaign and what led up to it gives an interesting window into Alberta politics and what to expect when the House of Commons returns in September. And for Insight, I'm joined by Monty Solberg and Shannon Phillips.

Monty served in Stephen Harper's cabinet and is now CEO of New West Public Affairs. Shannon was an Alberta NDP cabinet minister and is a partner at Meredith Bosson Kuhl and Phillips, and thank you both for being here. My pleasure. Monty, let me start with you. What do you make of the campaign that Pierre Plains? Pauliev ran in the riding? Well, it's been a spirited campaign, and, you know, the candidates have been out and about.

I know Pierre has been to just about every community in the riding. He's worked his tail off. I was at an event the other night in Drumheller, and there were about 200 people lined up to have their picture taken with him. So he remains immensely popular, and I think is going to be in a good place when the results come in tonight. Shannon, did you expect to see him so much? Well, you know, what I think is interesting is that he's actually had to pivot a little bit to local issues, as we just heard in that sound from that rally the other night. Because originally he hadn't been talking about local issues at all.

And there has been a little bit of challenge to him. You know, it's not going to be massive, but he has had to, you know, address the fact that he is parachuting in and take. on some of those concerns. That's an interesting part about the campaign. Of course, what remains interesting about this campaign is not necessarily what the outcome is. I think we all know that this is a very rock-ripped conservative area of Alberta. What's interesting is how we got here and what happens next. You mentioned there are some of the candidates, tons of them, of course, because of the long ballot people, but there is a candidate who has been sort of suggesting that it's unfair to have someone parachute in the way he did. And I think, Shannon, tell me a little

bit more about the person who's making a bit of a dent, although it's unlikely it'll make a big difference. Well, there is one independent candidate who seems to have gotten a bit of traction. Her name's Bonnie Critchley, and she's doing that sort of the yeoman's work of democracy in many ways, bringing light to some of the issues that are paved over when you have a person who is of national significance come into your riding. And that is the kind of work that needs to be done in every election to ask some of those tough questions to shine a light on some of those tougher issues for Mr. Poli Ever to answer. And, you know, and she's doing it in a context of these 214 candidates, which is extremely unhelpful for voters to be able to sift through, you know,

who's a real campaign, who's not. And she's been able to break through. And that's a good thing. I think it bodes well for, you know, just the democratic exercise. And any, time, a leader has to answer tough questions, especially in a by-election in the doldrums of summer. I think we're all better off for it. You know, this is the safest riding, one of the safest writings across Canada for the Conservative Party. Is there a margin of victory Pierre Pauliev needs tonight to keep the caucus and party united behind him, Monty? No, not really. You know, the point that Shannon made about all the people on the ballot, I think is really sort of means that this is an apples and oranges comparison to what happened last time around.

You know, you have, instead of five candidates in the general election, 214, so if each of them peels off some support, it really means that you've got a different kind of outcome than you had the last time around. I think what will matter more than anything will be Pierre's performance in the House between now and the Leadership Review in January. Plus just sort of his, the approach that he takes, given that we have a completely new political dynamic in the country compared to when Pierre and conservatives everywhere were to some degree voting against the Justin Trudeau legacy. So completely different set of circumstances now, and it'll matter a lot how he performs in the House. And Monty also, the Liberal Party has shifted to the right. And so what, it seems, and so what does that do for Pierre Polyev's message? Well, it means that he's got to get creative.

You know, there's a couple of things I would do if I was in his situation. One is, you know, I would take the lesson of the last election, which is, although the popular vote went way up, the highest in 40-some years, we didn't win, we won 144 seats, meaning we were picking up a lot of support in writings we already held. And we have to go in and appeal the people in especially urban and suburban ridings across the country with a different kind of message. So that's, you know, that's the very first thing that I would do. And then secondly, I would go after some of the weak ministers that the prime minister has. You know, they've done that to some degree. But these are young, in some cases, inexperienced ministers who really haven't necessarily shown a lot of skills so far. and I would go after them and hold them to account and make them explain how they're going to reduce immigration,

how they're going to rejuvenate the economy, et cetera, really hold their feet to the fire. And that's, you know, something Pierre can do once he gets back into the house. Shannon, holding another party's feet to the fire is one thing. But how does Pierre Polyev differentiate himself in this political reality where many of the CPC signature policies like canceling the carbon tax have been adopted by the liberals? Well, I agree with everything Monty has said. If I was in the business of giving conservatives advice, I think I'd probably start with some of that sage advice that Monty just doled out. But I'll add one thing, and that is that Mr. Palli ever needs to figure out how to be more propositional,

because the idea is he's put forward so far in response to the threat coming from south of the border, the threats to our economy, they are very much singing from the old sheet music. and he is just dusting off the same sheet music of tax cuts and so on. He even heard it in the sound earlier about, you know, farmers and capital gains. Well, I mean, Mr. Carney canceled the increases to the capital gains tax. So he's going to have to update his message and his policy propositions. Number one, in order to differentiate himself, but number two, to appeal to some of those voters that he needs. And number three, he's going to need to do that in order to allow some space for the NDP

to continue or to start to bounce back because that was a critical error by the Conservative Party of Canada in the last election in that they just beat the NDP down in their zeal to pull down the Trudeau Liberals also down to a fine powder and invested millions in that effort and as a result they didn't get the vote splits they needed. Right, they need the NDP to be strong to take the votes from the liberals. Yes, in some seats, right? Or at least they need to have that optionality. And one thing that we've noticed about Mr. Palliever is that he is very dogged and determined in one direction, and he is very loath to move off it.

That was the central problem in the last campaign. It's probably why he even lost his seat as well as lost the election, is because he could not be flexible to move with the changing circumstances. He's going to have to prove that he can do that, and he hasn't yet not through this by-election and not through the post-election period. Monty, of course, a big issue in Alberta is whether or not it should leave the rest of Canada, and that's, you know, locally in the provincial politics, that's a big talker. How has Pierre Paulyev navigated that during this by-election?

Well, he's called for Alberta to play a leading role in Confederation, which also appeals to people in Battle River Crowfoot. I think that the separatist sort of group that really attracted a lot of media attention, I think they're on the wane. You know, I think Pierre has done an excellent job of convincing people that Alberta can and should lead in Confederation, especially as a major contributor to the economy. And, you know, if anything, I think it's done a lot to convince people that Alberta has a big role to play in the future. and, you know, full credit to Pierre for taking that head on.

Shana, do you agree? Has he done a good job of, because most Albertans, of course, don't want to leave Canada. So has he done a good job of playing that up? No. I have to disagree with Monty here. I think he's ducked the question successfully. And he has not had to, you know, mount a spirited defense of the future of the country at all. And, you know, there's a petition out there right now to put a referendum,

question, should Alberta remain in Canada? Mr. Poliova has not been asked whether he will make sure that his Alberta MPs sign that. He has not been asked the ways in which he parts ways with Daniel Smith. He has not at all stood up and full-throatedly defended this country and the existential threats that Alberta separation posed to national unity. And so in my view, that is one area of vulnerability for him that's actually really easily a remedy. He may not want to do it during a by-election, but he sure should afterwards. This is a gimmy for the majority of Albertans and the majority of Canadians. But it is hard for him.

He does have to balance interests here, right? Because you've got the separatist in chief in the premier's office who continues to push this agenda, whether it is a full-blown sovereignty conversation or stopping just short. of that with extremely expensive schemes like Alberta in its own tax collection, its own smaller and more unwieldy pension system. It's more expensive provincial police service, all of these different sort of quasi-separatist ideas that have been around for a long time. He's also not had to answer for any of those.

Monty, how do you think the Alberta Premier Daniel Smith has handled all of this separatist talk? Well, I think she's handled it quite well. She continues to, you know, lead in the polls and the public is definitely behind her, even though she has repeatedly called for a strong Alberta in United Canada. And so she's effectively put the separatist issue to bed. You know, in the by-election, I think the separatist got about 18% in a riding where traditionally, they've done extraordinarily well. In fact, elected a separatist MLA 40-some years ago.

So she's done a very good job of tamping that down. She's giving people an opportunity to blow off steam, but it has not really gotten the traction that Shannon suggests, and I think they'll be ultimately defeated. Welcome to the dudes club, a brotherhood supporting men's health and wellness. Established in the Vancouver Downtown East Side in 2010, the Dudes Club is a community-based organization

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Dejardin Insurance, here for your home, auto, life, and business needs. Certain conditions apply. Shannon, I want to talk to us. a little bit about the NDP, both federally and provincially. Why hasn't Nahid Nenshi and the Alberta NDP been able to capitalize more on this fact, too, that Albertans are not in favor

of separation? Well, you know, I don't know about that. They have launched a campaign over the summer. They've got all of their MLAs canvassing on this issue this summer and going to events and so on. And it's been really part of how they've, I think,

a bit of a reset over the course of the summer and part of their summer outreach. I think we're going to probably see that reflected in the numbers as well because Daniel Smith's position on this is extremely muddy, right? On the one hand, she, oh, yes, a strong Alberta within Canada, but also here are a whole bunch of separatist policy proposals that we should continue to consider, even though they've been serially rejected by Albertans, such as leaving the CPP, having our own police service, these kinds of ideas. So I think we are seeing the NDP get a bit of traction provincially.

And now that Mr. Nenshi as well is going to be in the House this fall, that too is going to help. He did not have the benefit of the courtesy that Mr. Carney showed Pierre Pali ever in calling the by-election right away. Daniel Smith literally waited until the last day that she legally could to call the by-election to get Mr. Nenshi into the House. So he did not benefit from the same just parliamentary courtesy that we generally see prevail in Canadian politics and the same level of civility. And what about the federal NDB? How does that party make a comeback? Well, they have to have a spirited leadership race. It is too long, you know, going until March for sure. They would have benefited, I think, from a shorter race, you know, with more bursts of enthusiasm.

However, we are where we are. So they do need a slate of compelling candidate. dates who can first and foremost raise money and make compelling arguments to Canadians. They've been given a wide open runway, just gift after gift from the Liberal Party of Canada and the current occupant of the Prime Minister's office. And so they need to figure out how to take them. And the way to do that is to appeal to people, but also grab that share of attention that is increasingly difficult in the current media environment. And Monty, how do you think the Conservative Party stands behind Pauliev when the leadership review happens. Is that something that he can count on? Well, you, when you're a leader of the opposition or any political

party, every day is a job interview. So you have to perform, especially when you're on the opposition side, there is, you don't have the discipline of power to hold people behind you. So it does require that you perform. And conservatives, more than any other party, eat their own. And Pierre is well aware of that. So he knows what he's getting into, and his job will be to be effective in the House and to be, instead of just leader of the opposition, he has to ultimately be seen as a prime minister in waiting. And that requires a slightly different tone and skill set. And it'll be up to him to perform and prove to conservatives that he's got the royal jelly to be a prime minister in three years' time. You say it doesn't matter by what kind of margin he wins today, which he's widely expected to win. But I'm curious what you think that number will be compared to what it was in the last, the federal election.

Well, it's impossible to say because in a by-election, you know, a lot less people turn out. You know, in this by-election, you've got 214 people on the ballot and each of them with their coterie of supporters, meaning they'll take from this direction and that. It's very difficult to say what the number will ultimately be, but, you know, he'll win with enough of a margin. I'm convinced that after a couple of days of analysis, people will move on to issues that really matter. Shannon, do you agree? I do agree. And we know that this is an extremely conservative area of the country.

People will turn out to vote for the conservative candidate. and so I'm not sure that it matters this margin of victory to Monty's point. What matters is how he got here and why he has to do this in the first place and what lessons are learned going forward. And I'm not sure based on at least actions too now that a whole lot of lessons have been learned, but it's very, very clear that broadening the message out to appeal to voters, Beyond the folks who are voting in Wainwright and Drum Heller and Concert and Tofield today, to a broader swath of suburban and urban voters has got to be what the Conservative Party of Canada focuses on now without relying back on the old arguments. The conservatives, of course, Monty, talk a lot about oil and pushing for more oil exports, more pipelines, but we're also seeing extreme heat, wildfires.

is how does he sort of balance those two conversations in a province like Alberta? Well, the economic imperative, I mean, that is the here and now right now. There was a poll out the other day indicating something like 60 plus percent of Canadians are feeling anxious about their economic state. And, you know, that's the imperative. I do think over time, conservatives need to have a more fully formed plank on the environment, especially if they intend to win in suburban and urban areas. But that is not where we are today.

We're really talking about the economy. And I get it. You know, obviously, oil and gas is extremely important to the future, not only of Alberta, but of Canada. And, you know, the proof is that Mark Carney and the liberals are pursuing this very same agenda, especially as we face, you know, a looming economic threat. caused by U.S. tariffs on our steel, aluminum, cars, et cetera,

which threatened to really undermine our livelihoods as Canadians. Shannon, we're in the dying days of summer now. What are you going to be watching for as the fall political season heats up? I'm going to be watching for how much money starts to get spent to shore up Mr. Pelliova's leadership. The Conservative Party of Canada is a well-known, well-oiled fundraising machine, and it will be interesting to see how much they feel that they have to invest in order to keep him in that chair and get him through the January leadership review. That certainly will be a dynamic that will condition political sort of the political soap opera in Canadian politics over the fall.

And just how much Mr. Poliova updates everything. You know, I just went and looked on the conservative.ca website. And it hasn't been updated. It still says that he's a, it's got their platform and it says that he's the MP for Carlton and does some, in his biography, talks about COVID-19. This is not a group of people that are updating things fairly quickly. The pandemic is five years behind us. And so I'm really going to be watching to see how fleet of foot they are over the fall. Okay, Monty, what about you?

What are you watching for? Well, I'll be watching Pierre's performance in the House. I think that'll be really important and whether or not he adjusts his tone. You know, Pierre is a well-known scrapper in the House of Commons. He may want to turn some of that attack dog type approach over to some of his deputies instead and assume sort of a more prime ministerial tone. I think that'll be important. And I'm a little surprised that Shannon didn't say she'll be watching the NDP leadership race. I think that's going to be really interesting to see who steps forward and whether or not the federal NDP can be revived. They're in a desperate situation, completely broke as we understand it. So, you know, can they be revived somehow? And will they win over labor support in a way that they used to do but have ceded to the liberals and the conservatives in the last election?

That was just a given for Shannon, right? Yeah, sorry, I thought we were talking about the Conservatives, but yeah, we're going to start to see the vetted candidates coming forward and announcing throughout September, and certainly through that fall period, the candidates will, you know, introduce themselves to Canadians. And it'll be very interesting how the various candidates think about the space that has been given to them, has been essentially. gifted to them by the Liberal Party of Canada and also how the Prime Minister responds even to if there's some internal restiveness from his JAG to the right because he certainly got elected in many places from votes that were lent to him by New Democrat supporters and it does not appear that they've taken that lesson they've taken that lesson to sort of move over into Mr. Poli-Evra's lane but there's a whole left lane open there does he move back

into it or does he just leave it to the NDP? Okay. Shannon Phillips, Monti Solberg, thank you very much for this. Thank you. Thank you. Monti Solberg served in Stephen Harper's cabinet and is now CEO of New West Public Affairs. Shannon Phillips is a partner at Meredith Bosun-Koole and Phillips and was an Alberta NDP cabinet minister. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon.

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