The Current - What happens next in the Gaza ceasefire plan

Episode Date: October 14, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed his Middle East peace deal, but the future for Palestinians and Israelis remains uncertain. Palestinian politician Mustafa Barghouti wants guarantees so there will be no backsliding into war and self-determination for Palestinians. Political expert Shira Efron explains the sands have shifted in Israel and that a new relationship with Palestinians will have to be forged, even though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will resist it.

Okay, I know, I know it's not time for the holidays, but can we talk about Mariah Carey for a second? She just dropped her first full album in seven years. We're going to talk about that on Commotion, but also we're going to celebrate 20 years as her iconic record, The Emancipation of Mimi. For this episode and a whole lot more, you can find and follow Commotion with me, Alameen Abdul Mahmood, on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. This took 3,000 years to get to this point. Can you believe it?

And it's going to hold up, too. It's going to hold up. Okay, thank you. That was Donald Trump in Egypt, signing the deal meant to end the war in Gaza, as leaders from the Middle East, Europe, and North America looked on and applauded. Earlier in the day yesterday, the Israeli Prime Minister welcomed the U.S. President to Jerusalem, but Benjamin Netanyahu did not go to Egypt despite being invited. As the summit and Charmel Sheikh unfolded, Israelis celebrated the return home of the last living hostages and the remains of four others.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, people cheered Palestinians freed from Israeli prisons and continued the very first steps towards rebuilding. But that rebuilding, whether it be practically, emotionally or politically speaking, will take time. Mustafa Barguti is the leader of the Palestinian National Initiative and part of the Central Council of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Mr. Barguti, good morning to you. Good morning. Thank you for being with us. After watching that gathering of world leaders standing behind the peace plan yesterday in Egypt, what are you thinking about the future for Palestinians' days?

today? Well, it was a good agreement to end this terrible war on Gaza, so the war is over. And it was good that Israelis were released, and now part of the Palestinians have been released. I mean, 2,000 out of 14,000, 12,000 remain, unfortunately, in jail. But the most important thing is that this is about only stopping the war, about seizing fire. This does not mean we have peace yet, and we cannot have peace unless the main issues are resolved, on top of which ending the Israeli military illegal occupation of Palestinian land and allowing Palestinians to be free from occupation, from the system of apartheid, and from the system of discrimination.

I think these are the major issues that haven't been tackled yet. But in Gaza, people are aspiring now to having some repair of the huge damage that was done there. And, I mean, you're talking about 250,000 people killed or injured. That is 11% of the population. Yeah, the numbers from Gaza local officials are 67,000 Palestinians killed. Yeah, but you add to them the 170,000 people injured. And I'm talking about the people. killed or injured. 11% is a huge number. If you apply it to the United States of America,

you could be talking about 33 million people killed or injured in the course of two years. That's huge damage. There is a lot of damage, no doubt. You say that the war is over. That is something that Donald Trump also says. Are you confident of that? I am pretty confident that because it would be very difficult for Netanyahu to reactivate the war now. Although that risk remains, there, since without the pressure of President Trump, I don't think Netanyahu would have stopped that war. So the risk is still there, and the other risk is that whether Netanyahu will implement the agreement and his obligation to withdraw his forces from Gaza.

And the third difficult issue is whether Netanyahu will allow really the entrance of humanitarian aid to Gaza, which people need so much. I mean, 92% of all homes in Gaza are destroyed completely. More than 94% of our hospitals were bombarded. Most of our clinics were destroyed. Most schools were destroyed. Gaza doesn't have clean water, doesn't have electricity, doesn't have proper sewage systems.

There is huge damage that requires the utmost possible amount of humanitarian aid now, including medications and medical material and medical equipment. And that is the risk here, whether Israel will allow all of that to take place or will continue the previous policy of procrastination. According to Donald Trump's peace plan, there are conditions in the rebuilding efforts and the recovery of Gaza. Some of those conditions include that no money go to those associated with bloodshed and terror, that Gaza be demilitarized and international police force be put in place. What do you think of those measures? how confident are you that they will happen? The most important issue here which they speak about is whether Hamas will be governing Gaza or not.

And Hamas has declared already that they don't want to be the government of Gaza and they don't want to be in the government of Gaza. I think we had a very good formula which we reached with all the 14 Palestinian groups in Beijing, called Beijing Declaration, which says that an independent, professional government should be established. for both West Bank and Gaza, and that transitional government should prepare the ground for having free democratic elections within one year. I think that's exactly what Palestinians need. We didn't have elections for more than 20 years now, and that is a very instrumental matter to rebuilding proper and strong Palestinian leadership. On the other hand, it is very important

to remember that the Palestinian issue is not just Gaza. West Bank was completely ignored, in this agreement that Mr. Trump signed. The issue of Palestinians subjected to settlers' terror in the West Bank and the expansion of illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank is the big problem. West Bank should be part of the Palestinian state and part of the solution. And that's why I think we need a real peace plan that leads to peace. And that means ending occupation, allowing Palestinians to have a state of their own, that includes both West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.

You don't have that peace plan, which you are saying that is needed. When we talk about Hamas, as you say, it says it doesn't have interest in governing Gaza. It was not invited to the conference in Egypt. But over the past few days, there have been reports of armed men associated with Hamas, patrolling in Gaza, as well as clashes between Hamas and other armed groups. How much power do you think Hamas is actually willing to seat in Gaza? Gaza, what are you reading into what you've been seeing there? I think they're ready if they see a Palestinian independent structure in the place.

But if somebody is thinking about bringing another foreign rule to Palestinians in Gaza, then that would be a problem, of course. I think we've struggled for more than 100 years against British colonialism and then later against this Israeli colonial occupation to see independent Palestinian structure taking place. And I think Palestinians are quite capable of ruling themselves. If the idea of a professional independent government is accepted that guarantees the unity of West Bank and Gaza,

I don't think Hamas will have a problem. You mentioned the international governance, which was, according to this plan, is to be a temporary form of governance. And there appears to be, at this point, a lack of or little Palestinian involvement. What is the involvement that you see Palestinians having in the short term?

I don't think this whole idea of international ruling will fly. I think there are no, objectively, it's not possible to happen. And when I hear people saying that they need 500 military people to go into Gaza, what can they do? Nothing. And that's why I think the most realistic plan is to really allow an independent Palestinian government to take place immediately. without delays.

And the international community must put their efforts in providing two things. First of all, guaranteeing that Israel will not maintain economic and humanitarian blockade on Gaza and that the international community will also contribute to rebuilding and restructuring what was destroyed, to repairing the damage. Reconstruction of Gaza is the most important thing now for people to be able to live. I think one very important point also that should be clear to your audience is that finally, the most important thing that happened after these two years is that the plans of evicting Palestinians from Gaza or conducting ethnic cleansing have failed.

That is very important, that Palestinians remained on their homeland, and that Palestinians can build their future in a peaceful manner. Mr. Bargudi, the things that you advocate for in terms of having a population, Palestinian government, in short order, aren't part of this plan that has been signed on not only by the U.S. president, but backed by many other world leaders. So what now? I think the most immediate task is, the most immediate task is really to repair the suffering of the people in Gaza, to guarantee that they will have ability to have food, to have clean water to have a place to be in. They don't even have tents in many places. People are in the

streets with nothing. So that's the most important task. And I think all efforts must go in that direction, providing the ability for dignified life for all Palestinians in Gaza. And on the Palestinian, on the issue of governance, as I said, the only formula that can work is an international independent, sorry, is an independent Palestinian professional government that does not allow separation of Gaza from West Bank, because separating Gaza from West Bank will simply undermine any potential for an independent Palestinian state. Mr. Barguti, we appreciate making time for us here in Canada. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Mustafa Barguti leads the Palestinian National Initiative, and he's also a member of the Central Council of the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Hello, I'm Jess Milton, host of the podcast backstage at the Vinyl Cafe. Join us every Friday for funny, fictional, feel-good family stories about Dave, his wife Morley, and their kids, Sam and Stephanie. And for behind-the-scenes stories about what it's like to live life out on the road, on a tour bus, living out of a suitcase, traveling across Canada. new episodes every Friday.

Subscribe for free wherever you get your podcasts. Shira Efron is a distinguished Israel policy chair and senior fellow at Rand. That is a non-profit, non-partisan research organization. We have reached her in Tel Aviv Israel. Shira, good morning to you. Hi, good morning. Thank you for having me. It's nice to have you with us.

You just heard Mustafa Bargudi, given what you heard from him and sort of at the beginning of the ceasefire taking effect? How fragile is this peace plan in your view? I think it's way too early to speak about a peace plan. I think where we are now, it's true that President Trump's peace plan included 20 points that eventually is supposed to lead to peace. What we are seeing now is the gradual and incomplete implementation of the first four, which were the return of all Israeli hostages, as we're speaking now, all living hostages have returned 20, but there's still 24 deceased hostages whose remains are still held by Hamas. So this is part. The second part is obviously the exchange for

Palestinian prisoners. And that's also, it's kind of a dirty, cynical game of body for body, but that is not complete until the Israeli hostages are returned, the surge of humanitarian aid, and obviously the IDF withdrawal. That is what was. in practice agreed by the sides, what was signed by the president and his partners, but not the actual warring parties, is, you know, a commitment to talk about all the other thorny and much more difficult issues that Mr. Burgundy also spoke about, which could, if implemented in a right way, with the right commitments and good faith by the sides, might lead us to peace, but I will say we're not at peace. to it anytime soon, unfortunately. In your opinion piece in the New York Times yesterday, you write, quote, it is understandable why Mr. Netanyahu's government celebrates the agreement, but at the same time, winks that the ceasefire may be temporary and a strategic achievement.

Can you explain what you mean by that in reference to the Israeli prime minister? Yes, well, it's the prime minister, but also his coalition. Look, I mean, there, we have to look at a few things. First of all, I agree in principle with Mr. Bargutti's idea that Gaza and the West Bank and the Palestinian people should be governed by Palestinians. However, it looks like there needs to be some, you know, support for this endeavor. And the question of disarmament of Hamas, if we have a moment to discuss it a little bit later, this is something that without which Israel is not.

going to relent. And so because at the moment what supposedly is meant to happen that Israel withdraws as Hamas disarms, but if Hamas doesn't have an incentive to disarm until the conditions of a Palestinian state or political horizon are meant, and Israel doesn't have the incentive to withdraw because it's not willing to take risks, how are these sides going to move ahead? now, if we're looking at Israel on other fronts, right, Israel still maintains its presence in five hilltops in Lebanon and in nine spots on the border with Syria, suggesting that Israeli full withdrawal and implementation of the next phases of agreements, by the way, agreement was also signed with Lebanon, right, a ceasefire agreement over a year ago, or a year ago, We don't have good precedence in the sense of what will push Israel to do it. And I think this is what the Israeli government sees. They're very skeptical about Hamas disarming.

And I think with good reason, I, you know, I, Echia Sinoir, the mastermind of the October 7 attacks, famously used to say the Palestinian Authority can control Gaza above the ground as long as we maintain Gaza underground. The fear in Israel is not that Hamas will agree to cede their governance of God, their control of Gaza. They never like this part of the job taking care of the poor Palestinians anyway. The fear in Israel is that they will maintain their arms.

How do they disarm? Which arms are they willing to give and to whom? This is a concern. So Israeli skepticism comes from Hamas is not going to do its part, which means we will never be forced to do our part. And that's why we're going to stick to a phase one of the deal. You mentioned Lebanon, there's also been vast violence in the past two years in the occupied West Bank. Settler expansion clashes with Palestinians, the violence between Israeli soldiers and some Palestinians as well.

Amidst all of this, you have several countries, including our country, Canada, recognizing a Palestinian state. So now more than 145 countries who've done. And so there are conditions, at least from Canada's perspective, of not the recognition, but beyond that, what it requires to do. But many see a two-state solution as the only way forward, something that the Israeli Prime Minister has stood against, continues to stand against. How is that idea being received by the Israeli public now?

So most of the Israelis are skeptical about a two-state solution. I think also the term itself is loaded for Israelis. when you look at polling, about half of the Israeli population and half of the Israeli Jewish population believe in the idea of partition, okay, some sort of the idea of not living with Israelis and Palestinians not living together. And this is, if we want to be positive, this is when all forces operate against the two-state solution, right? So with the right leadership, I think you can have some Israeli support for a gradual separation partition between Israel and Palestinians, which would leave to Palestinian independence.

Israelis, for the most part, I mean, this government is a historical accident in terms of the hawkish nature of this coalition. And the fact that, like, Betzalel Smutrich and Itamar Ben-Vir have such important roles. But Israelis, for the most part, do not want to control the lives of the United States of Palestinians forever. They are not willing to relent and provide Palestinians with the dignity and freedom. They need because they're scared. Once the scare factor is removed, then we can start addressing the other issues. It does not obviate the need to deal with the Israeli spoilers, the extremes on the Israeli Jewish side, which are, who are breaking Havoc in the West Bank,

as you said, and they have oversized representation in this government, which is an enormous problem that this plan does not address. And it should, because whether Israelis like it or not, the West Bank and Gaza are indeed non-contiguous parts of the Palestinian entity. And me too, like Mr. Barguti, I believe that Palestinians should be able to govern themselves. I just, if it's okay, I just have about 30 seconds left with you. Oh, sorry, go ahead. No, that's okay. Did you want to have a quick closing thought? Just closing thought. I think we don't have to always think that international presence, international forces is the negative things.

If we look at the case of the Balkans, right, in Kosovo and Bosnia, Herzegovina, a multinational force with international presence helped support the local government. It didn't seek to substitute them. we can get to this here, there's a reason to be hopeful. So I hope the Palestinians would not oppose to it if it comes to bolster their leadership and not to replace it. Shira Efron, we appreciate your perspective as well this morning. Thank you very much. Thank you for having me. Shira Efron is a distinguished Israel policy chair and senior fellow at the nonprofit Rand. You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll

talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca.ca slash podcasts.