The Current - What’s next for Alberta?

Episode Date: October 1, 2025

For the last three months Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has been hosting  “Alberta Next” town halls. On the agenda — how to get a better deal from Ottawa...and more autonomyThe final town hall happens online tonight. But separatist and pro-Canada groups are also criss-crossing the province with their campaigns. The CBC’s Allison Dempster speaks with host Matt Galloway about  what’s next for the province. 

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Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. After 120 years of this, why should Albertan support staying within Canada when everything else tells us to go? Thank you for having this panel, but I just want to remind you, this is our money, Albertan's money that you're using to spend on this panel. We should be able to talk about whatever topic. we want. I would say that if you still love your country like I do, I would like you to stand up and join me in singing, Oh, Canada, our home and native land. That's very nice. Thank you. Thank you. Can we come over to this microphone?

Calgarians did not hold back at a town hall this week. About 1,100 people turned out to give their two cents, and perhaps a little bit more, to Premier Danielle, Smith's Alberta Next Panel. The panel has been touring the province over the past three months on the agenda how to get a better deal from Ottawa and more autonomy. If Canada is to be a strong and unified country, it must include a strong and sovereign Alberta within a United Canada, able to pursue our own potential without being held back by our own country. The final town hall happens online tonight. The Premier is not the only one with a traveling road show, though. separatist and pro-Canada groups are also crisscrossing the province with their campaigns,

petitions, t-shirts, bumper stickers, and tow. All roads point to some sort of referendum. But what that referendum will look like is still being mapped out. The CBC's Alison Dempster has been looking into all of this for us. Alison, good morning. Good morning, Matt. You have been, I don't know whether you're traveling with t-shirts and bumper stickers, but you have been on the road yourself and been to a few of the Premier's town halls.

What are they like? They are packed. there have been hundreds of people at each one, and they're politically charged. United Conservative Party supporters come out in full force. There's a 16-person panel chaired by the Premier. She gets a warm reception from the crowd, even from Albertans who say they're ready to separate. I want to start with encouraging you guys and Premier Smith, you are doing a bang-up job. Hey, hey.

And I think there's a chance you can make a fine president for a new sovereign nation. So, Matt, separation is a strong undercurrent at these town halls, but it is not on the official agenda. Okay, so what exactly is the Alberta next panel looking into? There are six topics, and they're introduced with videos that have a nice, soothing soundtrack, underneath a familiar chorus. So what say you, Alberta? Should Alberta take a lead role in working with the other provinces to reform federal transfers and equalization? So equalization is on the list, along with replacing the RCMP with the provincial police service, taking more control over immigration, establishing a new Alberta pension plan, reopening talks on the Constitution and tax collection.

No small matters there. These are all big, big issues. Oh, yeah. What are people most concerned about? What's your sense? There is an overriding feeling that Alberta is getting ripped off. I met Vaughnter at the town hall in Lathbridge, and he was wearing a t-shirt with an image of a pump jack on it that said, support a sovereign Alberta. On the back at the bottom, it says Alberta established in 1905 and free in 2027. So Vaughn owns an agribusiness in Tabor, and he's the one we heard saying the Premier would make a fine president. That seemed to get some blasts from the crowd. What brought him to the town hall?

One big issue for him is equalization, and this is the federal program that's, aimed at making sure poorer provinces can maintain similar levels of public services. Alberta doesn't receive equalization transfers. It's been a half province since the mid-60s. To be clear, it's not the province itself that pays into equalization. The program is funded by federal tax revenue. So high-income Canadians, wherever they live, pay more. And Alberta happens to have a large number of them. But many Albertans look at the way equalization is distributed and it does not seem fair. Quebec will take the most from the program this fiscal year, more than $13 billion. And for people like Von Penner, that just grinds their gears.

And he says he doesn't see it changing. On what level is their fairness within that, right? And then what comes back is federal disrespect, federal imposition of everything from social policy to economic policy. So here we are. Sovereignty is a serious conversation. And so that's why he has the shirt that says at the bottom, free by 2027.

How common is that sentiment at the town halls? I met a lot of people like Vaughn, either committed separatists or separation curious. They feel Alberta isn't respected for what it contributes to the country. They feel the oil and gas industry here is being stifled with regulations that Ottawa is happy to take the money but gets in the way of the province making it. And Matt, even if they're not completely sold on the idea of Alberta going it alone, the separatist movement is a way to make their voice heard. So that is what they're doing at these town halls. But they're not the only ones stepping up to the mic. What other feedback is the panel getting?

Well, some ideas are more controversial than others. For instance, the panel is looking at the question of whether Alberta should withdraw from the Canada pension plan and start its own. And while the panel is hearing plenty of support for that idea, it also drew some of the strongest opposition at the town halls I went to. Do not touch my CPP. I want to know when. You are going to stop playing with this absolutely ludicrous idea of an APP. Why is this government continuing to push an idea that Albertans clearly have rejected? And why is this money not being invested in education or health care?

So Matt, some Albertans are frustrated with this pension question because the province has asked it before in a survey in 2023. and that survey found nearly two-thirds of Albertans were opposed to withdrawing from the CPP. Only 10% supported it. And we only know those numbers because the Edmonton Journal fought to get the made public and the Office of the Information and Privacy Commissioner got involved. So for critics, this is an example of how, in their view, this Alberta next panel is a manipulative exercise that's distracting from issues Albertans really care about.

And EP leader Nahed Natchi has called it a sham. There's also concern about the debate unfolding on other topics, though, particularly immigration. This is a topic that's being discussed across the country. What is the province proposing on that front? Well, Premier Smith says dealing with large numbers of newcomers to the province has been challenging. She argues the liberal government has allowed too many people in, and the province needs more control over the immigration system. So one proposal is that the province restrict access to social services.

If Alberta isn't satisfied with the number or economic qualifications of newcomers moving to our province, we may have the option to withhold provincial social programs to any non-citizen or non-permanent resident who does not have an Alberta-approved immigration status. This would likely encourage more sustainable numbers of immigration overall, while supporting the entry of newcomers that can contribute to our provincial economy. If Alberta went this direction, Ottawa could decide to fight Alberta on this issue in the courts. More of that soothing music under a hot topic. How are people responding to that idea?

It stirred up a lot of discussion. Here's a taste from town halls in Lethbridge and Medicine Hat. If you're not a Canadian citizen, you better pay out of pocket. If you come into this, like my great-grandparents did, and they didn't get a dime, you don't either. You pay for it. It's not free. Thank you. It's really easy to scapegoat immigrants, for example.

for all sorts of things that they are not particularly responsible for. And I'm concerned that this discussion is edging in that direction. So, Matt, as you can hear, some Albertans are concerned, the discussion is taking a dark turn. But the Premier is stressing the question on immigration is about finding the right balance, not targeting newcomers. What is Daniel Smith trying to do with this, with this Alberta next panel? What is the goal here?

From the outset, the Premier has said this is about strengthening Alberta's sovereignty within Canada. But political observers I talk to say she's also trying to keep a restless part of her base in the fold. And she's known as a strong communicator in these town halls play to that strength. Calgary pollster Janet Brown likes to joke that the premier missed her professional calling as a hostage negotiator. Because the whole thing with hostage negotiation is to keep people at the table, to keep them talking. And as a former talk show host, she's very good at that. I speak at a lot of events and she will speak at the same events. And I just watch how the audience responds to her.

And, you know, someone will ask a question and she'll say, that's really interesting. And she'll write it down and let me look into that. And then the person who asks the question, like, they feel so proud. I've been heard. And so she's very good at making people feel heard. If it looks like she's trying to advocate for them, she gets a lot of political points for that. One other thing Matt Janet Brown notes is what happened to former Premier Jason Kenney, and people will remember he got ousted by the far right wing of the party.

So she says that's likely part of Smith's political calculations as she tries to keep the United Conservatives united. The spirit of innovation is deeply ingrained in Canada, and Google is helping Canadians innovate in ways both big and small, from mapping accessible spaces so the disabled community can explore with confidence. To unlocking billions in domestic tourism revenue, thousands of Canadian companies are innovating with Google AI. Innovation is Canada's story. Let's tell it together. Find out more at g.com slash Canadian innovation. Viking. Committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart

of Europe on a Viking long ship with thoughtful service and cultural enrichment, on board and on shore. Learn more at viking.com So if you take a look at the separatist support, are these town halls, and we've heard a little bit of the tenor here, are these town halls turning down the temperature or just fanning the flames? Yeah, of course, critics say it is the latter that the premier is playing with fire here. They also point to the government's recent move to make it easier for citizens to trigger referendums, including on separation. So under these new rules, petitioners don't need as many signatures and they have more time to gather them. We've talked a bit about that.

What's going on on that front? Well, the Alberta Prosperity Project is the main separatist group pushing for a referendum. So I went to one of their town halls in High River south of Calgary recently. Amber DeRosier was volunteering at the merch table. She's 22. She was doing a brisk business with T-shirts, tank tops, and hats. We've also got some bumper stickers here as well for the Alberta. at a referendum with a little QR code that you can scan to anyone that's walking past your car

in the Costco parking lot can say, oh, I wonder what that is. And they can give it a quick little scan. And so if you're walking past the car in the Costco parking lot and you scan the QR code, where does it take you? To a web page where you can pledge to vote for an independent Alberta. You know, it's just a pledge because their petition for a referendum is hung up in the courts. The constitutionality of it is in question. The case will go before a judge in November. And in the meantime, they're trying to keep their momentum going. Now, of course, supporters say that's not a problem. When I was there, I met Julie Nelson.

She was just renewing her membership. Because I'm very, very tired of our eastern friends. You know, any election, it's all over. It reaches Manitoba, and we know we're done. Julie has nine grandchildren, and she says they're all in favor of separation. And every time I go to a meeting, I see new people and I'm very, very encouraged with that. What happens at those meetings that Julie mentioned?

There are a few speeches by the organizers, then they take questions. One of the founders, Jeff Rath, got the crowd going talking about immigration. The first thing that will happen in Independence, Alberta, is that a big, no-vacency sign will be hung up on the province or on the country of Alberta until we get a grip on everything that's going on here and we get rid of all the people that don't belong here and rationalize our economy on a going forward basis. So the Alberta Prosperity Project has an official plan

which is titled The Value of Freedom and that no vacancy sign, Rath mentions, is part of it. Calgary political scientist Lisa Young has described this as the ugly underbelly of Alberta separatism. At these town halls, the discussion is framed as being about sovereignty and immigration policy, but Young says it can be used as cover for views that not so long ago would have been considered unacceptable in mainstream conversation. What is your sense as to how strong the separatist movement in Alberta is right now?

I talked to Calgary Polster Janet Brown about this, and she says for about the last decade, separatist sentiment in Alberta has hung around 28 to 30 percent, and she told me it's hard for her to imagine that surging to over 50 percent, That's based on her current polling. Professor Lisa Young had a similar take, but she argues that's not a reason not to take this seriously. Any time that a quarter of a province's population is so angry about its place in the country, its situation that it wants to talk about separatism,

I do think that we need to stop and think carefully about the situation that we're in. And we're in a political. moment where ideas that seem to be on the fringe of the conversation suddenly find themselves in the mainstream. That means that we need to be careful not to be complacent about something that seems like a fringe issue still, but has sufficient support and potentially has friends in high places that could try to aid and abet it in, you know, an exceptional set of circumstances. My nightmare scenario is the Americans really getting involved. So, Matt, for the political observers I spoke with, is a vote for separation likely?

No. Can you rule it out? Also no. And the debate will be alive in the public square for months to come because of the separatist referendum push. But Matt, you'll remember they're not the only ones with a petition. And of course, as is often the case in Alberta politics, there was a twist in the story. The twist comes from the group opposing the separatists. What's going on with them? Yeah. So Forever Canadian got their petition approved ahead of the Alberta Prosperity Project. Their question is, do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada? And they've got a big deadline coming up. By October 28th, they need almost 300,000 signatures. Because they submitted their paperwork before the government made that rule change on these petitions official, they have to hit a

higher threshold than the separatists. Do we know how many signatures the forever Canadian group has yet? No, there's no estimate on their tally. They say they have about 5,000 volunteers across the province, and they've been out at libraries and parks and Legion halls at folding tables and driveways, farmers markets and festivals anywhere people might be congregating. I went to meet some canvassers at the Lantern Festival in Calgary's Chinatown recently. Janelle Martinkowski is a realtor and a born-and-raised Albertan. It just helps to send that message not only to Alberta, but to the rest of Canada, that there are a vocal few that are making the noise.

Seems like some of the feedback I'm getting from people that don't want to sign are, it's a negotiating tool. And it's like, I'm old enough to remember what happened in Quebec. So, no, that is a dangerous game to be playing, no matter what you think the objective is. So Martin Kowski says she worries people will get completely. about the issue. But the steady stream of people stopping by to add their signatures was helping to keep that worry at bay. What are people saying the people who are stopping by? What are they saying about why they're signing this petition? One of the people who signed the petition while I was

there was 19-year-old Hannah-Fam. Oh, I just think that Alberta should stay in Canada. Like, I don't see any benefit of us leaving. I just don't get it. Like, a lot of the rhetoric is just ideas from the U.S., and I don't know if that's the best. So, Alison, there are a lot of moving pieces here, a lot of passion kind of on all these different sides. Do we have a sense as to where this is going, where the petitioning and the town hall debating is headed? With the two citizens' initiatives, there are a lot of what-ifs involved, depending on signature counts, court decisions, and timelines. So that part could go a lot of different ways. What about the Alberta next panel? I mean, what happens with

work. A report is expected before the end of the year. The Premier says they'll decide what items should be put to the public in a vote. That referendum or referenda is being planned for May or June. So it's not clear at this point what questions would be asked or whether the ballot might include a question on separation from a citizen's petition. All of this, though, is really about the place of Alberta in Canada. How could moves by the Prime Minister, who spent some time in Alberta. How could that affect things? Well, all eyes are on the new major projects office. Mark Kearney has said a second batch of major projects is coming. And these are projects that are deemed nation building and we'll go through a fast-tracked approvals process. And they're expected

to be finalized before the Grey Cup on November 16th. The Premier says that date is her line in the sand. And Matt, I want to play for you in exchange about this from an Alberta next town hall in Grand Prairie. So for the last two hours, we side. hearing we talked and listened about how we feel the Canadian government is doing our province wrong and I 100% agree that they are. I guess my question

is, and it's for Danielle, on Grey Cup, when Trojan Horace Carney, does the lucy from Charlie Brown and pulls the football away, do you got my back? What do you think a win looks like? I mean, I guess I've framed the win as them either revising or repealing the

nine bad laws, getting us a bitchamine pipeline to the West Coast, and supporting the Pathways project, because Pathways has been advocating that project for a number of years, that's to reduce carbon emissions, because that matters to a lot of the customers in Europe and Asia. If we can get those three things, then I don't think that that's a loosey move. A Lucy move. You can hear, this is high wire for the Premier, but she's setting some, like, as you said, line in the sand, she's setting some high stakes here. Yeah, and later today, the Premier is announcing a new project aimed at, quote, strengthening Canada's energy infrastructure.

No word on what that might be, but a possible development in what the Premier has been calling the Grand Bargain at these town halls. So, Albertans who see the sovereignty push as good leverage in negotiations with Ottawa are fans, but others fear that in the process, Smith is giving oxygen to a separatist movement that has no interest in bargaining. However, Grant. Allison, thank you very much for this. You're welcome. Allison Dempster, CBC producer in Calgary. You've been listening to the current podcast.

My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cBC.ca.ca slash podcasts.