The Current - What's next for Iran?

Episode Date: January 13, 2026

Amid reports of a bloody crackdown on protests in Iran, the White House says many options are on the table -- from air strikes to diplomacy. An Iranian exile tells us what she's hearing from inside the country about the deaths of protesters. And we get an expert view on Donald Trump's options and what might come next.

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This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. It's a sound of rare video out of Iran posted by the BBC. It's from the city of Mashad, and in that video, fires are burning, protesters clash with security forces, and I say it's rare because for four and a half days, the Iranian government imposed an internet blackout in the face of protests unfolding across the country, one that is just starting to lift today.

The regime has also cracked down on demonstrators with lethal force. Activists outside of Iran have been working to document the deaths and scores of arrests. The number of dead is unclear. Estimates range from the hundreds to the thousands. What is also unclear is how the United States will respond. Here's what the White House press secretary. Caroline Levitt had to say yesterday. Well, I think one thing President Trump is very good at is always keeping all of his options on the table.

And air stripes would be one of the many, many options that are on the table for the commander-in-chief. Diplomacy is always the first option for the president. He's told all of you last night that what you're hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite differently from the messages the administration is receiving privately. And I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages. However, with that said, the president has shown he's unafraid to use. use military options if and when he deems necessary. And nobody knows that better than Iran. In a few moments, we'll get a view from a watcher in D.C.

about Donald Trump's options. But first, we're joined by Fatima Shams, an exiled Iranian scholar and feminist activist in Philadelphia. She's a writer, associate professor of Persian studies at the University of Pennsylvania. Fatima, good morning. Good morning, gal. Thanks for having me. Good to have you here.

You are from Mashad, the city where that video that we just heard is from. What do you know, I know that you have friends and family there. What do you know, if anything, about how they're doing? Well, these are very difficult moments to speak. I have no information from inside the country. We have entered already the fourth day of blackout, complete blackout, nationwide internet blackout. I, in fact, messaged my sister right before coming. coming live on the air to see if the internet has been restored, but I have not heard anything

ever since. How difficult is that for you, to know that your friends and family are there, but you can't actually communicate with anyone? It's unbearable. It's been unbearable on so many levels because not to be able to have, you know, to know anything about what's happening on the ground and at the same time hearing that thousands of people have been killed in a horrific massacre that was carried out in two days. It makes everything extremely difficult at this moment.

And I believe that it's going to be difficult in the next few days because even if they restore the Internet, which I think it's very unlikely because they're scared of more horrific footages coming out of different provinces of Iran. I think we will be kept in the dark for a long time before we know that how many people have been actually killed, let alone tens of thousands that have been actually arrested. The numbers, I mean, again, these numbers are people, but the numbers coming out continue to rise. An Iranian official told Royers today that about 2,000 people are dead. What do you have, I mean, again, understanding that you aren't able to speak with people directly. there, but knowing what you know, what is your sense as to how many people have been killed in the

crackdown on these protesters? So, as I mentioned, there are still no final fully verifiable figures, but reports from human rights organizations, in fact, confirm that a horrific massacre has taken place on a national scale. With some estimates speaking of thousands, between five to six thousands, even this morning Iran International, one of the major news agencies outside Iran has just published an exclusive report mentioning that about 12,000 people have been killed, many more injured. And this level of violence is essentially impossible for the ruling Islamic State in Iran to justify itself today without the label of counterterrorism.

And this is a label, as you know, that is the backbone of repression. And that's made me extremely concerned about the fate of those who remain behind the bars and have been arrested over the past few days. This is not the first time, obviously, the people in Iran have protested against the regime. But you told the New Yorker, your words, that this is an explosion. Why did you use that word? You're absolutely right. This is not the first time. Iranian people have been protesting.

for their basic human rights and demands for the past, at least for the past 15 years, if I want to start with the 2009 Green Movement, Green Revolution. And I think this, you know, this time is an explosion. I use that word very carefully, in fact, because I think everything, all the movements in 2009, 2017, 2019, 2022, and now 2025, 2006, everything has come. come to a head. Everything has come to a point where everyday life is essentially impossible in Iran. People cannot, they cannot even have access to the most essential goods anymore. Merchants cannot trade. The society can no longer operate and function and it's being met with

the most, with an unprecedented lethal force that we have not witnessed since the 1980s. And that's why I think the regime has reached a dead end because it cannot sustain itself and it cannot respond and meet the expectations and the needs of the Iranian society. And the society has reached a dead end on the other hand too because they have been chanting over and over again that we do not want this regime. They are fighting empty-handed against a monstrous regime that has no. limit in using lethal force. And on the other hand, I think, you know, the inaction from the international community that we have been witnessing, unfortunately,

over and over again, has only emboldened the regime and weakened the Iranian society and the civil society when they come out and they shout for their basic human rights. And that's why I think this is a moment that we can very well call it as a point of no return. And to your point, I mean, again, to what you said to the New Yorker, this is a moment where it's not about social freedom anymore, it's not about bodily autonomy, it's about

something much more widespread. Where does that leave the protests now? If this is about an existential fight within the country, where does that leave those protests? Well, let me just clarify that when I say that it's not about a body, autonomy or it's not about social freedom, I don't mean that those are not the demands of the protesters. Of course they are. I mean, none of them have been met in the past. But it's much more nationwide and widespread this time. We are hearing the name of the cities that we have not heard before. And we see strikes on an unprecedented scale. And for that reason, I think, this time is different. All those demands are still, you know, remaining valid. But on top of that, I think what's really clear this time is that the society and the people are not planning to back down even after the, you know, after the horrific massacre that they carried out within within only 48 hours.

People are still in the streets and they're shouting for, you know, for the toppling of the regime. Where does the protests lead? I think, based on what I'm seeing. and, you know, all the information and ways of communication, of course, remain limited to this moment. But even this, you know, the very small number of videos that came out of Tehran last night, it shows that people are still in the streets. And they don't seem to have any plan to end the protests. And I think that's why it's very important that the International Community Act as soon as possible, instead of witnessing and watching and only cover.

the news. I have to let you go, but what would you want to see from the international community? There's been talk from the Iranian government, but also from Donald Trump, about the possibility of negotiations. And we're going to speak more about that in just a moment. But what would you want to see from the international community in the face of what we're learning about now? I think if you listen closely to what the Iranian protesters are chanting, which is the absolute

lack of legitimacy of this state. This is a state that only use lethal force in order to remain in power. Negotiation with such a government as it has happened in the past only emboldened them and only give them more chance in the future to carry out even more horrific massacres. So my call on the international community is that listen to the demands of the Iranian people, cut all diplomatic and economic ties with this regime, close Iranian embassies in your countries, shut your own embassies in Iran, and stop negotiating with a regime that survives only through lethal force. Apply real pleasure. End the internet blackout if you can, provide secure access to internet and publicly debunk lies that unarmed civilians are the

armed armed terrorists. It's really shameful to see Al Jazeera English has turned into to a platform to promote regime narrative over the past 72 hours. This is shameful. It's a betrayal of the Iranian people. I think the least that could be done at this very moment, EU yesterday stopped and announced that the Iranian officials can no longer step foot inside EU buildings. That's a very good move, but it's not enough. The next step would be to close your embassies and to close their embassies in your country,

Let Iranian people at least see that you've done something for them. Thousands have been murdered. What else should be done for you to realize that negotiation with such a terrorist estate leads to no good for anyone, not for the international society, not for the Iranian people, and not for those who remain actually behind bars awaiting horrific executions that will follow in the next few days. already started doing that without any trial. People are getting executed left and right. And I really want to urge the international community and to remind them that condemnation

alone is not enough without action, words and negotiations with only empower repression and crush the Iranian people's hope for a peaceful transition. Fatima Shams, it's good to speak with you. Thank you very much. Thank you. Fatima Shams is a scholar, feminist activist from Iran, an associate professor of Persian studies at the University of Pennsylvania. Sabrina's stepping into special crimes where the stakes hit harder.

We want to find the person who did this so it doesn't happen again. But this time, she can't do it alone. I was brought here to be a partner. Partners need trust. And must learn to put her faith in others. One last time. Are you with us? I didn't come this far.

to only come this far. Allegiance. New season. Watch free on CBC Gem. Officials say that U.S. President Donald Trump is being briefed today on how to respond to Iran. Potential military options are on the table as well. Iran says it is ready for war, but also for dialogue. Cameron Bokhari is a strategic forecaster and senior director at the New Lines Institute based in Washington, D.C. Cameron, good morning to you.

Good morning. You wrote in Forbes magazine that Iran, Iran is experiencing its most consequential episode of public unrest since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. Tell me more about how you see this moment. Well, look, if you look at the context, it's very different from previous episodes, whether it was 2022, 23, whether it was 2019, 2017, 2009, 1999. The regime was not as weak, nowhere as weak as it is today. It's lost its regional standing. It was hit very hard by Israeli airstrikes.

The U.S. took out its nuclear facilities. The sanctions are really biting, which is very self-evident, given the fact that for the first time, we've had the merchant class actually sparked these protests. This was on December 28th. when the national currency plunged to an all low of 1.45 million real versus a single U.S. dollar, that's a 40% decline throughout the 2025 fiscal year. So this is what is making this situation very different. What do we know about how President Trump is thinking about responding to what's going on right now? So based on everything that I've seen, it does.

seem like the president of the United States is looking at non-kinetic options. What does that mean? Well, that means that the president wants the regime to make concessions. He obviously just can't sort of be seen as doing business with a regime that has killed, you know, hundreds, if not thousands of people. And therefore, something has to give. Now, what is that that they can actually give? I think that it. I think that it. if I had to speculate, there's two things. One, there have to be some concessions to the people. What does that look like? Two, there has to be some sort of a deal with the United States that allays U.S. concerns, which is that you agree that you will no longer pursue nuclear weapons in a verifiable way. and you are not going to be a threat in the conventional sense to your neighbors.

Those are sort of the U.S. interests. And then, of course, that would be a sea change. Both those things would be a sea change. The first one, there have to be some reforms so that, you know, because there are three different actors here whose interests have to be brought together for any understanding to work. One is that the people demanding change, they have to be placated. Number two, the regime obviously does not want to fall on its face.

Number three is the U.S. interest. Now, that's a really tough one. So I think this is a very tough moment for the Trump White House. Would involvement by the United States help the people who are out on the streets in Iran right now? Well, that's why the president is avoiding, you know, that military option because it risks having the opposite effect. Because if you do airstrikes, what that does is that it, those fissures within the state. So, for example, between the regular armed forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that I've mentioned in my peace and Forbes and previous writings, they suddenly are not as a key. as they are. They will close ranks because it will be an external threat that has to be met.

It will give the regime a freer hand to go after anybody who's protesting far more so than, you know, it'll provoke a much harsher crackdown. And so, yeah, I mean, it's a tricky one. Now, how do you conduct the military kinetic option, implement one, and actually, cause the regime to change its behavior because the other problem is, the other extreme is that you do airstrikes and the regime weakens to the point where it leads to disintegration of state institutions. And that's a worst case scenario. And that's also something that the United States does not want to see happen. That's not what the people of Iran want to happen. The people want change, not they want regime changed, not regime collapse, because that will create a

vacuum and we've seen in recent decades how that results into years of civil war and anarchy. We just have a couple of minutes left. Is your sense, I mean, you wrote in Forbes that the regime is very weak, that it's, you know, it isn't collapsing, but it isn't surviving either. Is this the moment where we start to see the beginning of the end of this regime? I think that, you know, I wrote a report for the New Lions Institute back in April of 2024, where I actually predicted that there's an internal regime change already underway. I think that process has been accelerated because of the war with Israel and now these protests. So yes, we are in a long-term sort of transition. Now, what do we transition to in Iran is the big question. There's just so many moving parts.

How do they all come together or not? We'll determine what the outcome will be. be. But this is, just finally, from your perspective, is a very significant moment. I mean, it's not just, obviously, the scale of the protests, but also the scale of the crackdown. If you put that aside, for the state of the regime and the state of the nation, this is a very significant moment. Yeah, it is a historic moment. The regime cannot endure as is. The regime has to evolve. Can it evolve? The situation is as such that I think that that is becoming increasingly difficult. And so I distinguish between the regime and the state. So the regime may collapse, but the state may still survive should the regular armed forces that are not as ideological as the IRGC and the broader security apparatus is. And if they are able to successfully take over the reins of the state, I mean, I'm literally talking about a coup, then, you know, that's probably the best case scenario where you don't have anarchy, you don't have the regime. We'll be watching. Cameron Bukari, good to speak with you. Thank you very much. My pleasure. Cameron Bukari is a senior director at the New Lions Institute based in Washington, D.C.

You've been listening to the current podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. For more CBC podcasts, go to cbc.ca slash podcasts.