The Current - Why peace still feels out of reach in Ukraine

Episode Date: January 7, 2026

Nearly four years into the war in Ukraine peace is still elusive. What would it take to get there? Matt Galloway speaks with Yevhen Matvienko and Tim Mak about the current state of the war, Zelenskyy's popularity and could Russia end up with part of Ukraine?

Fitz and Arch are back. St. Pierre has a serial killer? Hell of a start to a day. On a new case with an old pattern. Why am I getting the feeling that you guys have seen something like this before? Because, yeah. And to uncover the truth, they must put everything on the line. You are my partner.

If you win, I win. If you go down, I go down. That's how it works. Trust me. San Pierre, new season. Watch free on CBC Gym. This is a CBC podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway, and this is the current podcast. This does not mean that we will make peace, but peace would not be possible without the progress that was made here today.

That's U.S. envoy, Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, speaking in Paris yesterday. In a joint declaration, world leaders from the so-called Coalition of the Willing, including Canada's prime minister, Mark Carney, agreed to security commitments for Ukraine if and when a peace deal with Russia is signed. We will hear more about this declaration in a moment. But first, one of the most contested issues on the peace table is giving up Ukrainian land. Last week, we spoke with a man named Roman. He has been a Ukrainian soldier since before the war began.

We're only using his first name over fears that identifying him could put him in danger in the midst of this conflict. And Roman told us that from where he sits, giving up land now to Russia would only set the stage for more war. We want to save our territories and we want to stop frontline on this point because if our country will do this concession and Russian army will occupy Dunasurisian internally, it makes them, it gets them a starting point to get even further. So while Russia has all these resources and assets and while Putin's regime is acting in this way as we see, it will continue until something unbelievable will happen. I know I was going to resolve in such a way. It's unpredictable. It's some sort of stagnation right now, and it's not negotiable to give all this territory. stories to Russia, because it will serve as a starting point to prepare new invasion.

Roman says he speaks regularly with others in his unit about peace efforts. They are not optimistic. Regarding my colleagues, they are not enthusiastic about these peace talks. Because they perfectly see that it's not moved from that starting position. And this is very hard because the United States wants to make it quicker and quicker, and it's not going to happen because Ukraine has to speak not only with government from the United States and from a European Union, but directly with Russia, because if we talk only with our allies, it would be great, but Russia will not. agree on that. Yvheni Montvienko is Ukrainian, grew up 60 kilometers from the Russian border in the Donbass. His home has been occupied by Russia for years and is at the center of much of this conflict.

He's now living in Western Ukraine, which is where we have reached him this morning. Yvheny, hello. Hello, how you doing? I'm well. Thank you very much for joining us, as we heard from Jared Kushner just now. Peace is still a work in progress. How are you feeling in the wake of yesterday? meaning. Does peace, does an end to the fighting actually feel closer to you?

No, not really because, you know, while those peace talks are happening, we still have a lot of attacks by Shahir drones, by missiles. We still suffer with no electricity in all of our countries. So it doesn't seem that close. It seems that a lot of hasts happening, but not actual actions that are, that real people can feel, you know. The winter is coming, it's getting colder and colder, and it's not, there's nothing that giving us hope at this moment, as far as I see. Your perspective is really interesting in part because, as I said, you grew up 60 kilometers from the Russian border, and the region that you were from is in many ways at the center

of the fighting that's going on right now. What was it like to grow up there in the Donbass before the Russian occupation? Well, Matt, I can tell you that, that we had a lot of conversations with my brother and my relatives about this for the past several months or so. Because, you know, growing up there was not an easy thing to do. I have some vivid memories of things that our playgrounds as a kid, they were mostly abandoned mines where it was really dangerous to go there, but we actually haven't had any other places to visit.

And it was just my city is a small one. It's like 40 to 50,000 people of population. back on the day. And it was mostly miners work, mine workers, right? So they decoyle and they were really, they had really degraded health because of it. And my family, my grandfather worked on such mine for the whole life. And he had a lot of degradation on his health from there, right? And I can tell that we had, my family specifically, we had a lot of relatives on the Russian side, because it was really close there and my grandmother

she originated from Russia but she went to Ukraine when she was 17 years old stayed there after that and we had many connections so throughout all my childhood it was really common for us to go to visit our relatives

across the border and it was like a couple hours of commuting there and you're in another country right once in that particularly with stents in my memory was 20 or 4 it's not that vivid. But still, I have this piece of my memory telling me that in 2004, when we had our elections where President Yanukovych at that time lost for the whole region, we started to have

this world spreading across the street that we have to join Russia. Because Kiev, they actually betrayed us, betrayed the whole Donbos region. And they will be only taking our money from the people, you know. And that's why we need to believe Russians, because they will do everything for us to be, you know, prosperous and wealthy and whatnot. Why do you think that region is so contested? Well, I guess mostly because for Russians, they already occupied this region 10 years ago, and they want to secure it and say that it's at their own place. Because for now, they were playing with People Republic, Yeah, People, Republic of Donisk and Lugansk.

and it's not particularly a part of Russia, but they kind of conquered it if we can tell it that way. It's really actually reaching some minerals. There are some oil and gas reserves there as far as I remember and as far as I know. And that's why I guess it is the wealthiest part of it. Thus far, Vladimir Putin has been unwilling to back off on his demand for Russia to take control of that region.

And you have on the other side, Vladimir Zelensky, who was talking about a possible. of a demilitarized zone in that region, that that might help ensure peace. This is a conversation about territory. Would you trade territory for peace for an end to the fighting? The question should be divided into two parts, right? First part is to take, to give control of the whole Donbos region, which they do not possess actually now the Russians, right?

They only have in control some parts of Donetsk and Lugansk region, but not the whole territory. And that is the question. I would agree that we haven't had control of Donis, of so-called People Republic of Donuts for the past 10 years. And it's not going to happen in the next 10 years, as far as I can see. So if it is the question of having this peace treaty signed

and war ended, we're only given the territory that they are already in control. I can say, yeah, it doesn't change anything for me particularly because I wasn't been able to go there since 2014, so I won't be able to do it for the next 10 years or so. But giving them control of all Donbos territory would mean giving up some of the most secure territories that we have established for the past 10 years. And I would say that that's a red line.

Like we cannot give up land only because he couldn't conquer it. He spent four years trying to push for more and more cities and only got so far. So willingly taking control, no. What are the peace guarantees that you would need from the rest of the world if that were a decision that the Ukrainian government were to take? We heard from that Ukrainian soldier, Roman, earlier, saying that his fear is that if you are willing to cede territory, it only creates the conditions for a future invasion. Yep, that's right. So you're well aware that Ukraine had this kind of peace deals and communication happened in 1994 when we gave up our nuclear weapon, right? and we had some guarantees which didn't work.

So I don't want this to happen again. We need some solid ground for our military bases and our military part of Ukraine to be prosperous and developed. You can see now that we've actually gave a lot of interesting and very important information in scope of drones using FPV and unarmed equipment on the war zone. So our companies, this idea, And military companies, they created a lot of software and hardware for that.

My idea is only strong Ukraine itself and strong army and strong economics is what can guarantee us peace, not any other country, not men's on the ground, yeah? Not that any other soldier would go to the front line and save us. It wouldn't work. The Ukraine has to be in control of its own destiny. Yeah, yeah, that's right. You mentioned, I'm going to let you go, but you mentioned winter is approaching. It's, you know, the fourth year almost of this war.

The war continues. What are you most worried about in the days and weeks ahead as the war continues? I mean, it's really difficult in Ukraine right now. The biggest thing I worry about is that we have an even distribution of electricity and power in Ukraine. So while here on the western part of Ukraine, we don't suffer that much because they have a very big part of electricity infrastructure set up here. But our friends, you know, in the central and eastern side of Ukraine, they're very struggle. And it's so unfair that, you know, we are in the same country, we're fighting the same war. But we do not get to share this thing that we have here, being the electricity and power and whatnot, with them.

Because the Russians know this and they deliberately destroy this connection between Western and central part of Ukraine. So it will be uneven, you know. So while we are here, Kevin, to celebrate New Year, and stay at home with cozy warm flats, they here, they are there at Kiev and other regions. They struggle. You struggle with that as well. Yep, not that much as they, but, you know, it's, as you said,

it's already for a year. Most of us already well prepared for the shutdowns and the blackouts and whatnot, but still, it's not seemed like they would stop and this winter would be any easier for the past four years. Winters were always, you know, warm and without much snow and the temperature never get down more, get under

more than minus 5 or minus 10 degrees. This one, the weather forecast goes as far as minus 20. So it's going to be different. It's going to be hard. It's going to be hard. Yevheny, it's good to speak with you. Thank you very much. Yes, thank you for having me. Yevjani Montfienko

is Ukrainian. He's from the occupied Donbass region. He now lives in western Ukraine. All right, what we talk about? A New Year means a fresh start. Okay, make a list for the year and take charge of your life in 2026. Look, I'm not talking about your to-do list. I'm talking about your watch list. Cross off Family Feud Canada, St. Pierre, and this hour has 22 minutes. There's no excuses. Dream big people. Enjoy all your favorite shows on CBC TV or stream anytime on CBC Gem. Mike drop.

A key element of yesterday's announcement from the Coalition of the Willing was promised by France and the UK for boots on the ground in Ukraine. Here is the British Prime Minister, Kirstarmer. Following a ceasefire, the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment. This is a vital part. of our ironcast commitment to stand with Ukraine for the long term. It paved the way for the legal framework under which British, French, and partner forces could operate on Ukrainian soil, securing Ukraine's skies and seas, and regenerating Ukraine's armed forces for the future.

Tim Mack is a journalist based in Kiev. He's the founder of the counter-offensive. Tim, good morning and good to have you back on our program. Thanks so much for having me again. Volona Mir Zelensky said yesterday, we are each day a little bit closer. How do the commitments announced yesterday move that needle closer toward peace? Well, you highlighted the British aspect of the Coalition of the Willing. You know, the British, the French have all been part of these discussions about putting soldiers in place after a supposed ceasefire.

But one of the things I want to highlight as well is that the Americans are, are indicating their willingness to be part of this coalition of the willing. They're not going to, they haven't committed to boots on the ground, but they have committed to coordinating in terms of intelligence, in terms of briefing people, in terms of keeping an eye on the situation on whatever front line exists during that period of time. And that's an important signal, I think, both to the Ukrainians and to the Russians.

How much of that lines up with what Volodomir Zelensky was looking for? Is yesterday a win for him, do you think? Well, what Zelensky is trying to do right now is to keep the Western coalition together, and that's a very, very difficult task. He is as much trying to reach a peace deal as he is making sure the allies are not split apart by the many other geopolitical developments that are happening around the world and the tensions that are and the fissures that are being created between the Western allies. So from that perspective, even if they don't come closer to a peace deal, getting everyone on the same page, agreeing to coordination centers in France to oversee security guarantees for Ukraine, even in a hypothetical future scenario, that's a win for Zolanski.

Can I ask you? And I want to come back to what we've just been talking about in terms of territory and exchanges. But all of this is happening in the context of what unfolded over the weekend in Venezuela. You have an ally of right. Russia in Nicholas Maduro and an ally of Vladimir Putin, who is now detained by the United States. There are concerns around oil. There are these oil tankers that are at sea and apparently changing flags to Russian flags. What is going on there in terms of how that shapes the conversation that we're having right now? Well, you know, Russia is in many ways, Senator John McCain, the late Republican, used to call Russia a gas station masquerading as a country. And of course, that's his kind of quip on how reliant Russia is on oil and gas revenues. Now, Russia and Venezuela have been very, very chummy.

And so right now we have a period of relatively low gas prices. And that really affects the Russian economy. So this war is very much global in that sense. Russia, when it's trying to figure out how is it going to fund its war, how is it going to wage war in Ukraine? It's looking very closely at oil revenues, how much they can sell oil for, and therefore, what their budget is going to be. So in this way, even though Venezuela is halfway across the world, it has the, you know,

the developments in Venezuela and the degree to which Venezuela will now be kind of held hostage by American forces, whether oil will flow now to the United States or whether there will be a closer energy relationship between the United States and Venezuela. That's really going to affect Russia's ability to conduct this conflict. How would you describe what's happening on the front lines? I mean, people have in past used phrases like stalemate to suggest that the war is grinding along but not with any measurable gains on either side and how that might inform peace talks. Well, I mean, this has been, I think grinding is the way to describe it.

This has been a situation in which Putin has said, I'm willing to spend the lives and spend quite carelessly the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, hundreds of thousands have been killed, according to Western intelligence estimates, and casualties, which is dead and wounded, are reported to be over a million people. And this is for what is currently on the front lines very halting and limited gains. We're talking football fields worth of progress. Part of this is because of the development of drone technology, which really makes it very difficult to mass large groups of soldiers all in the same place and push forward with momentum. So what you're seeing on the front line is small little groups, probing and pushing forward, trying to get feet after meter after inch to push forward.

But it's very, very limited progress. And there's a lot of death and destruction to say nothing about terrible conditions in the mud and the cold out there because it is cold. The last time you and I spoke, it was about the corruption scandal that is engulfing parts of the Ukrainian government and seemingly getting closer to Zelensky's inner circle. How are Ukrainians feeling about him? Is there the sense that he is the right person in this moment to still lead them toward peace? Well, Zelensky has always been more popular outside of Ukraine than inside of Ukraine where, You know, I think the common perception of Zelensky is very skeptical that Ukrainians keep a very, very close eye on their political leaders

and are quick to turn if they don't feel like their leaders are operating in their best interest. But there's always been sort of one standard for Ukrainians to look at Zelensky as their leader on the world stage. And then one way to look at Zelensky as their leader domestically. I think that criticisms of Zelensky from Ukrainians are largely limited to the domestic sphere, whether he's doing enough on corruption, whether he's doing enough to provide, let's say, for example, social benefits to veterans. When it comes to the way he's negotiating abroad, I think most Ukrainians understand that he is, it has been, to use Trump's phrase, Delta, a difficult hand. he has added to that deck of cards if I can continue that metaphor and bringing christie freeland Canada's former deputy prime minister and finance minister into his fold as a new economic advisor he says that she will in his words attract investment and implement economic transformation

what do you see as her role in this moment well I know that she's been she's been brought on as an advisor I think what that really speaks to is her her likely role in the keeping together of the Western coalition that I talked about at the very beginning of our conversation. It highlights the need to keep the Canadians, the French, the Brits, and the Americans all together pushing in the same direction.

The real danger to Ukraine right now is the fragmentation of that coalition. And I think Freeland's appointment to this role is part of how do we continue to maintain this coalition because it's critical to the future existence of Ukraine as a sovereign entity. Zelensky said late last year that Ukrainians might need to face, in his words, a loss of dignity to try to get to peace.

Part of that is presumably going to be around territory. And we've just had this conversation with people who are very concerned about what that would mean and the guarantees that might come with it. What will Zelensky need to do to sell compromise to his people? It's going to be very, very, very difficult. As one of your previous guests noted, it's not just, you know, you look at a map and you think, okay, well, these are slivers of territory or we'll redraw this line over here. But it's not quite as simple as that.

Where the Russians are currently being held back is a series of fortified lines called Fortress Belt. And they are, they've really been holding the Russians off now for more than a decade. So if you redraw the line to the west of that, suddenly Ukraine as an entity, as an independent state, becomes extremely vulnerable because it's flat and undefended roads all the way into central Ukraine. So it's important when we think about compromise to have that context. Frankly, I think it's going to be very, very difficult for Zelensky to sell this compromise. And right now, I think that's a step ahead of where we are. are. We don't have a, we don't, there is no compromise to sell. Even as all these negotiations are happening and the flurry of diplomatic activity is occurring, Russia is not at the table. Russia hasn't

indicated its interest in peace, its interest in a ceasefire or a peace process that involves, even that one that involves any sort of compromise. It certainly hasn't indicated its willingness to compromise on its end. And so I think we are getting a little bit of, you know, bit ahead with that question. And even if we do get to that moment, it's going to be a very difficult, a difficult thing to pull off for Zelensky. Finally, I'm not asking you to predict the future, but is your sense, I mean, again, Vladimir Zelensky says that each day you're a little bit closer. Is your sense that this year, at the beginning of 2026, that this year could be the year to see this fighting

end? It's certainly possible. I think when we, you know, when we as report, reporters in the news media, we see a flurry of diplomatic activity. It builds up momentum into this crescendo like, oh, something is happening, something is progressing, something is developing. But I don't see the fundamental building blocks for peace right now. And in order for that to happen, Russia has to be incentivized to want it. There are two sides. And I don't see Russia meeting with Ukraine's European allies in a serious way. I don't see Russia indicating what it what would be absolutely necessary for them in order to come to a peace deal. I see them continuing on a daily basis to attack Kiev and other Ukrainian cities.

And so that's why I'm skeptical in the midst of all this diplomatic activity, whether there's some substance underneath at all, whether there's some real resolution that will come in the nearest term. Tim, good to speak with you, as always. Thank you very much. Thank you so much. Tim Mack is a journalist, founder of the counteroffensive he was in Kiev. For more CBC Podcasts, go to cBC.ca slash podcasts.