The Current - Wildfire season is almost here. What can Canada expect?

Episode Date: May 19, 2025

Wildfire season hasn’t officially started, but Manitoba has already declared a state of emergency after a deadly blaze in Lac du Bonnet. Guest host Mark Kelley breaks down the fire forecast and top-of-mind questions with Ed Struzik, author of The Future of Fire, and climatologist emeritus David Phillips.

Other People's Problems was the first podcast to take you inside real-life therapy sessions. I'm Dr. Hilary McBride, and again, we're doing something new. The ketamine really broke down a lot of my barriers. This work has this sort of immediate transformational effect. Therapy Using Psychedelics is the new frontier in mental health. Come along for the trip. Other People's Problems Season 5, available now. This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. Well, the May long weekend is seen by many as the unofficial start to summer. Like any good weather obsessed

Canadian, we start to pay extra attention to the forecast and begin to summer. Like any good weather obsessed Canadian, we start to pay extra attention to the forecast and begin to look forward to some summer heat. But in these times, the downside to that heat can be fire and extreme weather. To walk us through what's on the horizon, we're joined by David Phillips. He's climatologist emeritus at Environment Canada. Dave, good morning. Good morning, Mark. Nice to be with you. Yeah, always good to speak with you, too. Let's start on the West Coast.

It was a couple of years ago we learned the term heat dome and the terrible conditions that they had out there. What are you expecting this summer for the West Coast? Well, really, from the west to the east, north, south, I mean, the whole map. I have the the west to the east, north, south, I mean the whole map, I have a map in front of me Mark and it is showing nothing but bright reds and oranges and that doesn't tell you the intensity of the heat. It just tells you how confident weather people are in terms of the forecast and so it looks like it's maybe 80-90 percent right this forecast. All the

the runs have produced the same result. And certainly in the West and British Columbia, we're talking about very red colors I'm looking at. It tells you that it's going to be very confident, it's going to be warmer than normal. And we see that really right across the country. Whether it's a repeat of the dome of 2021, hard to say, but certainly I think people from a health dome of 2021, hard to say, but certainly I think people from a health point of view would have to be kind of concerned. I mean, I think you're right.

Canadians kind of enjoy warm summers and especially because we have long winters and certainly in parts of the country, the spring has been kind of on the coolie side, but certainly if we looked at the far west, it's warmer than normal. If we go more, also very confident that from really from, I would say from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast, also equally confident that it's going to be warmer than normal. And in between, clearly also warm. I mean, the flavor personality of this summer

is going to certainly be warmer across the entire country. And Mark, that really shouldn't come as a surprise. Why is that? Because, well, you know, last year, 2024, we had the, if you ranked all of the summers from the warmest to the coldest, we came out at 77 years of summer rankings.

Last year was the fourth warmest, the year before was the the warmest. I mean and also globally we had one two was the last year and the year before the warmest on record. The oceans are like hot tubs, I mean they were being bathed in very warm water at the surface and also quite down deep and so we're getting some of that warmth from the from the from the waters. But in Canada, Mark, we'd have to go back. I mean if things were normal, if I was talking about normal summer temperatures, I'd say well, you know, I mean there are as many cold ones as there are warm ones. I mean that's the definition of normal. But you know, the last, there are as many cold ones as there are warm ones. I mean, that's the definition of normal. But the last time we had a cold summer in Canada,

you'd have to go back 20 years, 2004, almost more than 20 years ago when the temperature was 0.2 of a degree cooler than normal. And one of the more significant ones, you'd have to go back 30 years, back in 1992, when the country was really a cool, wet and cloudy summer. And that was because the year before, the volcano Pinatubu erupted in Indonesia area, and it created a lot of crud in the air.

And so it shielded us from the sun. And so that was a real miserable kind of summer. So clearly we've been on our roll. Can we talk about rain, Dave, because I'm thinking about Manitoba, and Eastern Manitoba right now, where there's wildfires that are burning out of control. We've got farmers dealing with some drought-like conditions

in some parts of the country. So sun, heat, yeah, summer, that sounds great, but it's not great for everyone. What are we expecting rain wise? Well, you know Mark, if we're always much more confident issuing temperature forecasts, precipitation particularly in the summer is more of a tough call. Hard to get it right when you're looking at two to three months ahead. I mean we know sometimes it's hard to get precipitation forecast right today, let alone that period of 60 or 90 days.

It's tricky. And the thing is, especially because it becomes, it often precipitation in summer is thunderstorms. So it'd be raining in your front yard, but not your backyard. But the computer, the largest computer in Canada has issued the summer forecast for precipitation. And it is revealing in the sense that it's showing for so many areas of Canada below

normal. We're particularly in the West from really from, I would say from Lake Superior westward to British Columbia and also parts of Atlantic Canada and in some parts of the North. So it's generally showing drier than normal. Now, Mark, that as you point, as you kind of hint, that's not necessarily a good news situation. When it's warmer than normal, you want more precipitation, not less.

And particularly in parts of Canada where we've entered going into the summer, we're already into a deficit situation. We borrowed from the Moisture Bank and not paid it back this past year. And in fact, the last two or three years, I mean, three of the last five years in the West have been drier than normal.

So we're into a deficit situation. And so this is not good. I mean, we would like to have more precipitation than not and when you have this warm. So I think there are going to be clearly issues for us, as you point out, for agriculture and the drug conditions, but also for fires and health and other things. So yeah, on the surface for Canadians,

it seems like a good forecast, warmer than normal. But I think there are some implications for everyone when it comes to the fact that it could be too warm and too dry. What about even more extreme? I mean, Dave, we talked so much now about severe weather conditions. When you look at that forecast, any concerns

about severe weather conditions in this country? Well, Mark, that's a good point. Because, you know, I could tell you that the summer is going to be warm and dry, and that's it. But often, the summer is defined by the extreme weather. I mean, let me just give you a couple of examples. I mean, last year, Calgary had a pretty nice summer. It was a little warmer for most Calgarians than normal,

but it was wet, the precipitation was up a little bit normal or above normal, perfect for growing backyard gardens, everything like this. But on August 7th, there was a half-hour weather event that defined what the summer was like. This was a hailstorm, that hen egg-sized hailstones, whipped by strong winds, fell over the city for a half hour. One in five homes were damaged that needed sort of insurance claims. WestJet had lost a lot of aircraft, damaged at the airport and flooding.

And it was absolutely, 77,000 cars were written off. So it didn't matter how warm and dry or wet it was, it was that storm. And then you look at the East in places, big cities like Montreal and Toronto and Ottawa, hey, it was a good summer for many of them when you look at it over the three months, but my gosh, it was the Texas gully washer. It was heavy rains in a short period of time. Toronto, for example, had its wettest July, wettest month ever, the wettest summer ever, and the wettest day ever. And Montreal had remnants of two tropical storms that created flooding issues all over the city and damaged roads. People were rescued from the tops of their cars. So really, when you, and then of course the Jasper fires, I mean that was just, you know, a couple of days of two fires getting together because of strong winds.

And so often the summer as we see it is sort of described or eventful because of these extremes. And Mark, you can't forecast these extremes three months ahead. I mean, I'd be a rich person if I could tell you that there's gonna be a hailstorm in Calgary on August the 20th. So, I mean, this is often even the day of, it's sometimes hard to get right. So it's the extremes that really causes, that cause deaths and destruction and disruption.

But, and that is really what we've seen more of. I mean, it's sad to say, we are really seeing, our climate has changed. Absolutely. And the fact that summers are seeing more of these extreme kind of events. Dave, it is always good to talk to you. You know, I've been a journalist for almost 40 years

and I remember interviewing you when I was a young journalist in Montreal in the late 80s. And here we are talking again. So just on a personal note, always good to chat with you, Dave. Thank you so much. Oh, Mark. I so appreciate that. Thank you again. Bye-bye now. All right. Take care. David Phillips is a climatologist emeritus at Environment Canada. Did you know that tuberculosis actually led to the invention of the cowboy hat?

I didn't until I talked to John Green about his new book, Everything is Tuberculosis. It's a deep dive into the wild history of the disease. Every week on my podcast, Bookends, we sit down with today's best authors for candid conversations about their writing, their inspirations, and their lives. You'll get to see the world through the eyes of your favorite writers, and hey, you might even learn something new about cowboy hats. Bookends with Mateja Roach is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Of course, hotter and drier summer weather, as David's mentioning, is not always good

news, especially when it comes to wildfires. This spring, we've already seen communities evacuated from coast to coast due to fires. We mentioned Manitoba this past week, a state of emergency, even deaths there. So for a look at what we can expect in terms of fire this season, we're joined by Ed Strusik. He's a fellow at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen's University and the author of Firestorm, How Wildfire Will Shape Our Future and Dark Days at Noon, The Future of Fire. Ed, good morning. Morning, Mark. I know that there's been a North American fire forecast that just came out. Tell us about that

and what we can learn from that. Well, I'm looking at it and it's all bad news for every province west of Northwestern Ontario. That red mass, which means the extreme potential for fire, just goes right across the prairies and then expands into the Northwest Territories in July. There's really nothing positive to be said about that particular map except for the fact that perhaps Ontario, Quebec, is going to be probably not going to have as big a fires as they've had. How does that map compare to last seasons when you're looking at the risk of these fires?

It's interesting. Last season was not a big fire season, but then we had those events like Jasper. I'll just go back to something that David Phillips said about how parts of Canada, we didn't have a lot of fire and Calgary did not suffer the fires that they did the year before. But in Alberta, what we did suffer from was all of the smoke that came in from British Columbia. And so people had their windows shut, they had the air filters on,

and we had some really extreme heat. So we didn't really have the fires except for the tragic fire in Jasper, but we were reminded every other day that some part of the country is burning, just as Toronto was reminded in 2023, when you were shrouded in smoke. Yeah.

Well, we mentioned there was wildfires burning now in eastern Manitoba. Does that strike you as that early in the season for having wildfires to this extent? It would have been, you know, back in our day, Mark, but we didn't really report on fires, but we're always reporting on fires now. And this is a surprise because, you know, there was early hopes for The season because there was a lot of snow on the ground, especially in Alberta and in the Rockies Throughout the winter. It was a cold snowy winter

Which used to be an indicator that maybe we will not have a big fire season But we got in April, 28 degree temperatures in Edmonton and Calgary and Saskatchewan and Manitoba and all of that snowpack, all of that moisture just got sucked out of the ground and everything went really dry and it just created a kind of a tinderbox ready for anything, whether it be lightning or humans causing a fire. Yeah, you mentioned the snowpack and that reminds me of the zombie fire phenomenon. Can you tell the listeners about that?

Well, it's a fire that, you know, this is one of those new words like pyro C.B. and fire NATO that, you know, we never heard of. Fire NATO. That's a good one. I hadn't heard that one. Yeah, that's that's that's there's only been two or three of them, but it's actually a tornado that's caused by of fire. That's a good one. I hadn't heard that. Yeah, that's that's that's there's only been two or three of them. But it's actually a tornado that's caused by a fire. And the zombie fires is a fire that usually ignites in a peatland where you have this this this this kind of soil and earth that you know, people put in their gardens and once it

catches fire, it's almost impossible to put out because it tunnels underground and no amount of water from a bomber can really put it out. It can survive a winter and then at this time of year, it will start flaring up. That was really unusual and became more and more common. This year, for the first time, as far as I know, that was really unusual and became more and more common. And this year for the first time, as far as I know, we've actually had zombie fires that have survived two winters.

Wow. Northwest territories and Northern Alberta. And if we continue to see that happen, because you know, we have the biggest peatland outside of Russia, and it starts combusting in those areas, you know, I don't know how you deal with it because really there's no amount of water is going to put it out except for, you know, torrential rains. I remember being in the Great Dismal Swamp in Virginia, which is also a peatland, and it's a swamp, but they had a fire, but they couldn't put it out because of it got so deep into the peat. And then they had a hurricane and they thought, okay, this is going to put it out because of, uh, uh, they got so deep into the peat and then they had a hurricane and then they

thought, okay, this is going to put it out. And that didn't put it out. And then they had to wait for a number of tropical storms before it actually dosed that fire. So we have the potential for having a lot of these zombie fires, you know, uh, sleeping over the winter and then just rising like dragons in the forest in the spring. You mentioned before the tragic fire that tore through Jasper last year. What do you think were the biggest lessons learned from that experience?

I think the biggest lesson is that, you know, no one is safe from fire because Jasper has probably done more than any other community in Canada to become more resilient in fire. I mean, I was there with fire managers like Dave Smith, Rick Kubian back in 2003 when there was some really big fires in Jasper and Kootenay National Park. And they realized then that they were in trouble,

especially with all of the tree kill from the mountain pine beetle. And they started working on it right away, getting the public ramped up interested in prescribed burns, thinning the forest, which was heresy back in those days. But they started working on it. And they did a lot of good job incrementally, perhaps not as quickly, but

certainly faster than any other community in Canada. And still, they had a fire that tore through that community and destroyed, you know, a third town. And the lesson, though, is that I think, you know, the mayor had said after the fire, if we hadn't done all of that work, we probably would have lost all of the town. And so I think that's the lesson for the rest of the country.

All of these communities that are situated in the boreal forest should look at Jasper and say, ah, okay, well, if they got it, we're probably going to get it at some point. And we're starting to see this unfold year know year after year it's become almost rips so repetitive that we can expect evacuations what what about urban areas because of course the there was a huge story of of the l a fires uh... and so what about urban areas in canada

can canadian cities learn from the l a experience i mean i was in l a i was hiking into that area six months before the fire, and everybody knew that this area was really vulnerable because they've done nothing since the 1993 fire there to make themselves more resilient. And I think that we have a lot of cities such as Edmonton, which has the largest urban forest in Canada, and a lot of coniferous trees there and a lot of dead wood because we've had a major kill off of trees because of an extended drought in there. So there's a lot of fuel on the ground. Now I know the city has come up with a plan or you know that they want to present to the public but you know compare that with Jasper starting to work in 2003 and in the city of Edmonton starting to work now

So I think what the lesson is is that most of these cities especially in the West have got to you know come to grips with the fact that Fire will come eventually I was talking to firefighters in Edmonton and they have fires every year in the River Valley that are caused either by lightning or homeless people living in the camps or kids lighting grass fires. And one of these days we're going to have a fire that's triggered at night time when nobody sees it and the winds, it might be a thunderstorm and then the winds ramp up and it could tear through the city. And you look at, I live in the river valley in Edmonton and I've got, you know, 80 year old spruce trees in front of my house that are owned by the city. I have these ornamental junipers.

It's a lovely old house, one of the older houses in Edmonton. And you know, by rights, I should probably start thinking about how am I going to make our house more resilient to those fires? But I still haven't come to terms with it because I'm still stuck in the old world. What are you expecting for your region then this summer? Are you concerned? Well, you know, I've just made an appointment with a furnace company to put in an air filter throughout the house and also a heat pump so that we can cool things down because you know during the 2023 fires we had temperatures of 38 degrees we don't have air conditioning we had smoke almost you know every different days on end

and it was really just intolerable so So that's one thing I'm doing. Ed, stay cool. Okay. Thank you. Always good to talk to you. Thanks for your time. Ed Strzuc is a fellow at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queens University and the author of Firestorm, How Wildfire Will Shape Our

Future and Dark Days at Noon, The Future of Fire. You've been listening to The Current Podcast. My name is Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening. I'll talk to you soon. days at noon, the future of fire.