The Current - Will Alberta vote on leaving Canada in 2026?

Episode Date: May 6, 2025

Premier Danielle Smith says there could be a referendum on Alberta separating from Canada as early as next year, if citizens who want one gather enough signatures. Mike Solberg, a former staffer in Stephen Harper’s Conservative government, digs into the separatist sentiment in the province — and Smith’s list of demands for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal government in Ottawa.

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This is a CBC Podcast. Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is the current podcast. After an initial conversation with Prime Minister Mark Carney, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith yesterday laid out what she calls Alberta's path forward with Ottawa and the rest of this country. Now let's talk about the elephant in the room, that being separation. We are well aware that there is a large and growing number of Albertans that have lost hope in Alberta having a free and prosperous future as a part of Canada. Many of these Albertans are organizing petitions to trigger a citizen-initiated referendum,

as I mentioned earlier. The vast majority of these individuals are not fringe voices to be marginalized or vilified. They are loyal Albertans. They are quite literally our friends and neighbors who've just had enough of having their livelihoods and prosperity attacked by a hostile federal government. They're frustrated and they have every reason to be.

Apart from talk of separation, Danielle Smith also laid out what her province wants to see from Ottawa when it comes to energy pipelines and more. Mike Sahlberg is a former staffer in the conservative government of Stephen Harper. He's a partner New West Public Affairs in Calgary. Mike, good morning. Good morning. We'll get to the... Thank you for having me. Thanks for being back on the program. We'll get to the elephant West Public Affairs in Calgary. Mike, good morning. Good morning. Thank you for having me. Thanks for being back on the program.

We'll get to the elephant in the room in a moment. But why do you think the Premier made this speech now? Well, I think it was, I think because it was time. Look, frankly, there's a growing, you know, Western angst and Western malcontent in this province. And it's not new. Of course, it's existed for some time. You could argue that kind of Western angst and Alberta malcontent and confederation has existed

for as long as they've been in confederation. But particularly right now, I think we're starting to see yet another high watermark in terms of Albertans carrying that sentiment, particularly as it relates to the reelection of a fourth liberal government here in Ottawa, which by many accounts, at least in Alberta, have viewed that record as hostile. So I think what the premier was trying to do here was to not just reflect her own anxieties as premier, and certainly she has her own views, that's very clear,

but to also reflect the anxieties of her constituents. And per Nick Nanos and per Shachie Curl and Angus Reed, they're pegging Alberta's separation sentiment around 30%, which is higher than it has been in Quebec at times. So it's very real. So I think she was working to give them a voice while also managing kind of the attitudes and understandings of what's going on with people who don't necessarily want to separate but still feel frustration because the election results on the 28th.

The premier said that she had had a conversation with the prime minister and that he had promising things in her words, promising things to say about resource policies. Does making a speech like this, does that help with any of the aims that she has and the goals that she has? I think so. And you know, you don't want to negotiate in public. So I do understand kind of the critique there. That's certainly not something that I think many would advise. But it's- It's not just negotiating in public, it's making demands.

Sure, sure, you bet. But recall this isn't new. She's made these demands before. What we saw yesterday was just her, I think, restaking the ground, reinforcing the demands that she's made previously during the writ period when we didn't yet

have an elected government. So I think that the timing here, I think, is just restating kind of her earlier objectives, which was that if the next federal government, we didn't know who it would be at that time, doesn't abide by these demands within the first six months, she's going to take a very long look at what options she has to defend Alberta. And of course, that was the subject of the discussion yesterday. And so those options include separatism.

She last week tabled this bill that would make it easier for voters to initiate referendums. You need what, 177,000 people in the province to say that they want a referendum and that would move forward? Right, that is correct, yes. Yeah, the threshold was lowered for referendum questions across the board. So you know what I think should be, I think what

is an interesting part that we shouldn't glean over is that there could be other questions that don't necessarily include separation or aren't separation on an eventual referendum ballot. But this is the question that Albertans and Canadians are seized with. So let me just run through some of the things that she said in that speech yesterday.

She said, I do not support Alberta separating from Canada, but she also said that the sense of alienation that people feel, the sense that they would, in her words, be stronger and more prosperous as an independent nation is understandable and justifiable and that these aren't fringe voices, they aren't traitors and they shouldn't be treated as such. Do you see that as being contradictory or confusing at all?

No, I feel that she is trying to unite two halves of the province here, many of whom frankly live under the membership of her party as well. I'm not sure I'd like to see any premier there stoking resentment against two people, against two camps with differing political views, however, however extreme you might want to characterize them. I think the premier was trying to kind of weave together a message here that said, look, I understand that there's significant frustration with Ottawa and our place in the confederation, but I myself do not share these views, but it is my responsibility to ensure that I give you a voice.

Take your concerns to Ottawa. And if you do not think that Ottawa is doing enough, then yes, democracy in action is your ability to get a referendum question on that ballot. And yes, it could be like separation. And that in a moment of existential crisis, the Canada is facing right now to suggest that Alberta would be better off outside of Canada.

She says that that is not traitorous. This is, I mean, in part, that's an important word because she has been, people have used that word towards her, right? Saying that she's gone down to meet with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago and whatever and put Alberta's interests ahead of the rest of the country. What do you make of the use of that word?

Well, I mean, I frankly would hesitate to clutch my pearls, much like I think some people are. I think what premiers do have is a fiduciary responsibility under the Constitution to work in the interests of their province. Look, I don't think Daniel Smith has a responsibility to ensure the prosperity of those in Brampton any more than Doug Ford does for the people of Medicine Hat. And I think that she needs to have a voice and an understanding that we do operate within the confederation here, but at least as it relates to Ottawa, she has some very real

concerns that are not new, that have existed for at least a decade and frankly, the sentiments that she's trying to give a voice to have existed for 130 years. Her comments have been greeted with applause from some and a furious response from others, including those in Alberta. First Nations chiefs are accusing her of attempting to, in their words, manufacture a national unity crisis. The leader of the NDP in that province, Nahed Nenshi, said this at his party's convention over the weekend.

So to Premier Smith, I'm talking to you directly now. Stop playing games. You have two choices, denounce separatism once and for all and do it today or let Albertans decide. You want a referendum? You want a referendum? Stop playing us for fools. Do you think she wants a referendum? You want a referendum? Stop playing us for fools. Do you think she wants a referendum? I do. I do. And I find some irony in Noha Dench's remarks that, you know, challenging to let Albertans decide. I think that's exactly what she's trying to do here. She knows that there's not public support for this. It's not enough to pass on a referendum ballot.

Really? You don't believe that? 177,000 votes, 177,000 people is not, I mean, it's not enough to pass on a referendum ballot. Really? Really? You don't believe that? It's strategic that. 177,000 votes, 177,000 people, it's not, I mean, it's a lot of people, but it's not a lot of people. You don't think that there's the possibility of that passing? No, I think it gets on the referendum ballot map, but I don't think it passes. And this would be the first referendum on Alberta's place in the Confederation in its history. This could be a chance for once and for all to put this to bed because Because it's not an insignificant amount of people, no matter what people say here,

we're talking about 30%. That's a third of everyone. That's my neighbors on one side and another on the other side that could be feeling this way. And I think it's the right move to try and take down the pressure. Otherwise, frankly, the UCP, the party, many of the members who hold these types of views could just oust the premier and sell an actual separatist here. So I think the premier here is trying to walk the line here between managing her caucus, her membership, the concerns of at least 30% of Albertans, while at the same time trying to unify them with the other 70%.

It's a difficult walk and it's one that conservative premiers have had to do for a long time in this problem. I have to let you go, but if there is a referendum next year, could you imagine Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta campaigning against separating from Canada? Uh, I can, um, but I suspect what you'll

probably do is stay out of it. Um, she shared her personal view on this, but if it is indeed going to be citizen led, I would question the role of a premier in that process. You think a referendum will happen though next year? I do. It's gonna happen no matter what, at least on some questions.

And if the citizens are able to do it, it should include separation. It's gonna be a wild year, Matt. It's great, it certainly is. It's been a wild year already, it feels like, and we're only at the 6th of May. It's great to talk to you as always, Mike. Thank you very much. Thanks, Matt. Appreciate it. Mike Sahlberg is a partner at New West Public Affairs.