The Current - Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire hold?

Episode Date: January 16, 2025

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is expected to go into effect Sunday, with the phased release of hostages and an end to 15 months of Israel’s bombardment in Gaza. Matt Galloway discusses what it will take to sustain the ceasefire with Israeli journalist Amir Tibon and Palestinian-Canadian lawyer Diana Buttu.

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Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current Podcast. Palestinians were jubilant in Gaza yesterday and in Israel there were calls for that government to implement a ceasefire. And from US President Joe Biden, this announcement. As at long last, I can announce a ceasefire and the hostage deal has been reached between Israel and Hamas. More than 15 months of conflict, more than 15 months of terror for the hostages, their families, the Israeli people, More than 15 months of suffering

by the innocent people of Gaza, fighting in Gaza will stop and soon the hostages will return home to their families. After more than 15 months of brutal war, mediators announced that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire deal. On the 7th of October, 2023, Hamas attacked southern Israel, killing 1200 people and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. Dozens of them remain there. A massive Israeli counteroffensive into Gaza has left more than 46,000 Palestinians dead. As of this morning, the Israeli cabinet has not yet approved this deal. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Hamas has backtracked on some details and caused a last-minute crisis. Hamas says it is still committed to the deal as was announced yesterday. If approved, this deal is expected to go into effect on Sunday with a hostage release

and an initial ceasefire of some 42 days. Amir Tibon is the diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz. He is from Nahal Oz, a kibbutz in southern Israel, near the Gaza border. Amir, hello. Hi, thank you for having me on the show. Thanks for being back here. What is the reaction in Israel to this ceasefire deal such as it is? There's a sense of cautious optimism that we could get our hostages back because this deal has been reached. It's still not finalized, it seems. We are still getting some leaks coming out this morning, both from the Israeli side and from Hamas, about last-minute discussions and disagreements but assuming all those are

somehow solved we are supposed to have a sea star in place on Sunday and on that day also see the release of the first three hostages out of the 98 hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza. Everybody's looking forward to that and we hope we really hope it comes through. Everybody's looking forward to that and we hope, we really hope it comes through. What is your reaction to this? You and I spoke about what you and your family went through on the 7th of October where you hid in a safe room in your kibbutz as it was attacked. What's your reaction to this? I support this deal. I understand that it comes with some heavy prices and there's nothing easy about having to release

about a thousand prisoners, including convicted terrorists in order to get back innocent people who were stolen from their beds. But this is the reality right now. And my own community, as you mentioned, the Nahal Oz, small kibbutz community on the border with Gaza still has two hostages in the hands of Hamas, Omori Miran and Tzachi Idan, both of them are fathers of young children who were taken on October 7 in front of the eyes of their children.

who were taken on October 7 in front of the eyes of their children and We have been dreaming every day since October 7 to get them back alive to their families And it seems a little closer today. So for us, that's the most important issue right now regarding this ceasefire deal Why do you believe this is happening now? The suggestion is this is the same or a very similar deal that was presented by the United States and negotiating parties in May So why do you think the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be willing to consider and move forward on this deal now? I Think that the personal involvement of the incoming American president Donald Trump played a huge role in the Finalization of this deal.

The deal itself is very similar to what President Biden had presented in late May. And back then, Hamas rejected the deal, and the Israeli government said yes, but, basically accepting the deal, but then Netanyahu started putting his own kind of emphasizing and conditions, and it never worked through. It never worked through, and now both sides are feeling more pressure from Trump. He's coming in next week. He has four years to lead the United States. And he said, I want this deal completed before the beginning of my second term. That seems to have made the largest impact of everything.

The fact that this is a personal, heavy involvement by the American president. Pete Do you think it will hold? I mean, one of the things we've heard is that some of the members of the Israeli coalition, particularly from the very far right, said in some ways that this is a surrender, in their words, to Hamas. They have threatened to bring down the government when deals like this have been proposed and passed, so will they be able to do that or does Netanyahu have the cover to be able to move forward on a deal from other partners? Well, they can bring down the government if they want, that's true, but that would be a risky move for them because the majority of the Israeli public supports the deal with all the difficulties

and the hardships. And on top of that, if we go to new election, according to most public opinion polling, this government is going to lose. So it's a risky move to bring down the government over this issue of the hostage deal. The biggest fear is that phase one of the deal will be implemented. During that phase we

are supposed to receive 34 hostages, the majority of them alive. But then phase two, which is supposed to begin in 42 days and is supposed to include the release of all the remaining hostages, most of them also alive, will never be implemented. But because of political pressures, this part will fall through, and the hostages not included in the first phase of the deal will pay the price. This is going to be a huge public battle here in Israel and in Washington. Over the next weeks, as phase one hopefully gets implemented, there will be a big question mark and a big battle over phase two. How do you think this war has changed Israel?

Israel, as a society that's been at war for 15 months now, desperately needs some good news, some hope, and nothing will give us that sense of optimism than seeing our hostages back home, seeing the women, children, the men, everybody, everybody that was taken on that day, to bring them back to their families. And Israeli society desperately needs that because it's really been a difficult and painful year with so much death so much destruction so many difficult moments and right now thought that on Sunday you know we're now speaking on Thursday three days from now we could start to see those people hugging their families after

we could start to see those people hugging their families after almost 470 days in this hellish situation in Gaza. This is something that a lot of Israelis are looking forward to. One of the things just finally that you and I spoke about is that this war has also pushed much of Israeli society. It's hardened society. It's pushed it to the right in some ways that those who were working on the front lines

of what was a nascent peace movement feel as though that movement has shrunk even further. Yes, and again, this is a natural reaction of a society at war. And it's something that obviously happens when people are attacked and they are feeling that there is a danger and that they are under threat. And it could shift again, but it will take time and it will only happen if you actually

reach this point of the war ending and something different beginning. You've seen ceasefires before. How hopeful are you that this one holds? This will require the permanent involvement and determination of the American administration. If it's a one-time thing for Trump, he gets it signed but then he loses interest, it could fall apart toward the day 42 and 42 which is the shift from phase one to phase two, and we will never get into phase two and never get those hostages.

So one of the important things that the families of the hostages and everybody who supports them all over the world will have to do is to keep the international media focused on this story, to keep Washington focused on this story, to keep Washington focused on this story, to keep it at the heart of the agenda so that we actually get to a point where the second phase and the release of all those other hostages is implemented. Amir, it's good to speak with you again. Thank you very much.

Thank you for having me. Amir Tibon is Haaretz's diplomatic correspondent. He's also the author of The Gates of Gaza. In 2017, it felt like drugs were everywhere in the news. So I started a podcast called On Drugs. We covered a lot of ground over two seasons, but there are still so many more stories to tell. I'm Jeff Turner and I'm back with season three of On Drugs.

And this time it's going to get personal. I don't know who sober Jeff is. I don't even know if I like that guy. On Drugs is available now wherever you get your podcasts. Diana Butu is a Palestinian Canadian lawyer, former legal advisor for the Palestine Liberation Organization. She is in Doha, Qatar right now. Diana, hello to you. Thank you. Thanks. It's nice to speak to you.

It's good to speak with you again. What is your initial reaction to this deal such as it is? Look, you know, there isn't a person out there who isn't happy that the bombs are not going to be falling on the heads of people in Gaza any longer. And at the same time, there's a lot of fear that Palestine is not going to see any relief, that the genocide is not going to end, because it's not entirely clear what it is that Israel is going to be doing and whether it's going to be held to account for 15 months of genocide. How important, Emir Tiban talked about why this is happening now.

How important do you think Donald Trump was in getting to this point? Joe Biden has been pushing for a deal with his allies in the negotiating halls for months now. Donald Trump is set to take office next week. How important is the Trump factor? Look, I think there's a few things. Donald Trump is set to take office next week. How important is the Trump factor? Look, I think there's a few things. First is, it's becoming clear, and people were saying this from the beginning, that all it could have taken was a single phone call from the Biden administration to tell

Netanyahu to stop and it would have been over. And that's becoming apparent. But at the same time, I don't think that Trump is the person who's going to do this without giving Israel a gift. In other words, I don't think that it's just simply that he has said the time is now. I do think that he is probably going to sweeten the deal somehow and give Netanyahu all of the things that he's been looking for, whether that is normalization with Saudi Arabia or continued impunity from prosecution or recognizing the settlements in the West Bank that are illegal, I don't think that Trump is just doing this because

he wants to see a deal done. And Trump is certainly no friend to the Palestinians. And I don't think that Netanyahu is just going to go in and say, oh, I'm fearing Trump, and therefore I'm going to end this. I do think that he is going to be rewarded for this. And it's sad that we are living in a world where people who are committing genocide

are actually rewarded for their actions rather than being brought to justice for what they've been doing. A phone call, but also, I mean, pressure on Hamas. Hamas has yet to release those hostages and will start, if the deal goes forward, to release some on Sunday. What do you think the incoming Trump administration meant for Hamas and what their role in any ceasefire would be? Well, you know, this agreement is very similar.

In fact, it refers to the same agreement that they signed back in May of 2024. And it's structurally the same as the one that was laid out in March of 2024. And so I do think that this was a question of just telling Israel enough is enough. You know, it surprises me that we're still in a place where we're trying to find justifications for genocide. When what we've seen since May of this year is not only the continued killing of Palestinians, but Israel has destroyed the healthcare sector. It's crossed all of the red lines of international law. And at this point in time, we should really be focusing on holding Israel to account rather

than anything else. I think the time is now because the message that's been now given to Israel is that they can carry out genocide and get away with it. You've used that word a number of times and that means the now given to Israel is that they can carry out genocide and get away with it. You've used that word a number of times. I mean, the allegation of genocide is in front of the International Court of Justice right now. Where does this deal leave those proceedings and that court case?

I think it's going to continue, and in fact, it must continue. If we have any belief, I want to believe in an international system that is based on the rule of law said the same and others as well. And so if we're going to have a system that is robust, that stands and makes sure that people around the world are protected, then we must go after the people who've been perpetrating genocide. And again, those allegations of genocide are against members of Hamas as well. The head, high commissioner for the UN commission for human rights, Volker Turk, said,

there is no true way forward without honest truth telling and accountability on all sides. So again, if you look at accountability for both Hamas and for Israel, I just wonder, is that possible in the wake of a deal and in the wake of the last 15 months? I certainly think it is, and it has to happen. And I think when we're looking at this issue of accountability, it's very easy to simply

look back and say that this started somehow 15 months ago. But what's ignored is what life was like for Palestinians living in Gaza for the decades that proceeded October of 2023. We can't simply just sweep that aside and pretend that it was a park that they were living in, but they were living under a ghetto. They were living under a brutal military regime that international organizations around the world have condemned. I think if we want to move forward, we can't just simply look at the issue as being one of a ceasefire, but look at what has led to this in the first place.

And the fact that we're still talking about the denial of freedom for Palestinians, 77 years on, says a lot about the international system. It's easy for people to put their heads in the sands and somehow pretend that Israel just is a natural entity, but it was built off of the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians. It was built off of on their land. And I think that we now have to address this issue definitively. If not, we're going to be in the same position over and over again.

Anthony Blinken has said, and whether that is addressing historical issues or not, Anthony Blinken looking forward, he's the outgoing Secretary of State for the United States, has said that there has to be a situation where the Palestinian Authority invites, in his words, international partners to create an interim governing authority to run services and oversee what happens in Gaza, and that Arab states would provide forces for an interim security mission. What does this deal mean for who would be in charge of Gaza? I think it's up to Palestinians to decide.

Is there not, given what happened on the 7th of October though, is there not a role for Israel in terms of its security as well in that? Absolutely not, absolutely not. The reason, absolutely not. The idea that somehow we're gonna let a country that has perpetrated genocide be the ones that have a say over how it is that Palestinians rule their lives

is absolutely absurd. It's quite the opposite. I think that if anything, Israel should be held to account for its genocide. And I think that we should be looking at providing a protection force for Palestinians for them constantly being concerned with Israel's security. Does the Palestinian authority have the authority to, and the moral authority within Gaza to create some sort of governing structure, do you think? It's hard to say right now.

The Palestinian Authority right now, its support is at an all-time low. And the reason that its support is at an all-time low is because they've done nothing over the course of the past 15 months to push for an end to this genocide. And so it's hard to say whether they will be welcomed in to Gaza, but at the end of the day, this has to be a Palestinian decision.

It cannot be Israel that is doing the deciding. We're in a world now where we shouldn't be looking at countries like Israel and saying that they're a model or that they have the right to decide the lives and the futures of Palestinians. That should be in Palestinian hands. What about the United States? I mean, again, in many ways, people believe that this deal came because of the pressure of the incoming president, Donald Trump.

Does he need to, to your point, does he need to keep his eye on this region for this deal to continue into the second phase, into a third phase, into what could be a lasting peace? I do think that there needs to be international attention. I very much worry about the United States. Remember the United States has not just been sitting back. The United States has funded this genocide. They've diplomatically supported Israel.

They've given Israel impunity. And so the idea that somehow the United States, who's been hand in hand with Israel all of these months, is going to do anything for Palestinians is kind of laughable. I do, however, think that we need to have sustained international attention. And I do think that there has to be international accountability for Israeli officials internationally for what they've done over the course of the past 15 months. Dan Abutu will leave it there. Thank you very much. Thank you. Dan Abutu is a Palestinian Canadian lawyer, former legal advisor for the Palestine Liberation Organization. She was in Doha, Qatar.