The Daily Beast Podcast - If a Recession Is Coming, We Have a Few Months

Episode Date: December 18, 2022

Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), joined as a guest on the latest episode of political podcast, The New Abnormal, to give us an answer to the question that is on a lot of people’s minds: Is a recession on the horizon? There’s good news and not-so-good news. Bivens also explains to TNA co-host Danielle Moodie how we got to this point in the first place and why the American worker is the usual scapegoat for when the economy is turning south. Also in this episode: Danielle and co-host Andy Levy talk about Republicans’ obsession with drag queens, the latest obsessor being Kellyanne Conway. Plus, they name who they think is the most “all-right” Trump kid, if such a kid existed in this family. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hi, I'm Andy Levy, former Fox News and CNN-HLN guy, and current cable news conscientious objector. I'm a former libertarian who now sits pretty comfortably on the left. Hi, I'm Danielle Moody, former educator and recovering lobbyist. But today, I'm an unapologetic, woke commentator on America's threats to democracy. And I'm producer Jesse Cannon, and I'm here to make sure things don't go too far off the rails. We're here to have fun, smart conversations with some of the most knowledgeable and entertaining people in politics, media, and beyond. Our goal is to try and make sense of our current crazy world, our new abnormal, and hopefully even make you laugh through the tears.

Hello and welcome to another Sunday bonus episode of the new abnormal, and we thank you so much for being here. Today we have an extra special guest with Josh Bivens, who's the director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, and he's going to state in plain English something very few economists can do just where we're at with America's economy today. But first, let's have some fun. Are you guys ready to listen to some clips? Clips!

I love clips. Eric Trump, you know, he doesn't get a lot of things. Now I hate clips. He doesn't quite get this whole concept of illegally captured evidence. So let's listen to his thoughts. Millions and millions, tens and tens of millions of dollars to the U.S. economy, hires thousands and thousands of American workers every single year, lives an honest life, no drugs, no nonsense. You know me better than anybody, Carl, right?

They go after it. They would love to find a comma. that was out of place somewhere just to, and you see it. I mean, look at the raids of Marlago. Look at Twitter. I mean, back to social media. Look at the way they hid the Hunter Biden story. I mean, anybody who posted it got de-platformed for posting a story about a laptop which had all sorts of illegal things on it.

Eric Trump is the one that looks like children of the corn, right? Yes. Or is that? Yes. That's him. Right. So one, just concerned, you know, in that respect. But then number two, when he starts off by saying, you know, most Americans, no drugs, know anything.

And I'm like, you mean, what? Have we seen some of the people they rock with? Eric Trump does not know anything. And that is evident while he is his father's, I think, fourth or fifth choice for favorite child. And all he ever does is try and tap dance so that daddy sees him, love me, love me, hug me, hug me. He is embarrassing. You have 11 million cases against you and your family. You were just found on 17 counts of like fraud for the organization that you work for and all of these things.

What are you talking about, sir? You're still talking about Hunter Biden's laptop? Like, what are you doing? Yeah, I kind of took the drugs thing as a little shot at his brother. And I think that that goes, it fits your theory of, you know, he's trying to become daddy's number one son. So he likes to drop in the drugs thing every once in a while as a little bit. little shot at DJ TJ, as I like to call him. But yeah, nothing he said in that clip is true.

It's not that everyone who mentioned the Hunter Biden laptop story on Twitter got banned. It was literally just a New York post. That story was all over fucking Twitter, no matter how much they want to pretend it wasn't. And it's just so it's just, it's a combination of just like, it's hard to tell with him where the stupidity ends and the lying begins. I'm just honestly not sure. With DJ TJ, it's mostly just lies because I do think he knows he's lying. With Eric, I'm honestly never sure because I think he's just that sort of sad of a person.

If there's a Trump I feel badly for, it's probably him. No. Eric? But I don't. I don't. Let me rephrase it. If there's a Trump that I would feel badly for, well, other than maybe like Tiffany. Tiffany.

It's Tiffany all the way. But she seems like she's off on her own and she's separated herself. And I think, you know what? I think that kid's going to be okay. Eric, I think he's somehow, he's, you know, found himself involved in the family business, and he really has no clue what the hell is going on, and he just sort of shows up. And, like, he's sort of a pathetic figure. I don't feel sorry for him because he's a Trump and he's sort of definitionally an asshole. But he is kind of a pathetic figure, I think.

You know what's terrible? Just, you know, close this out? But Eric Trump looks like an asshole. Do you know what I'm saying? Like, there are just some people who you're like, oh, they seem nice. It's like, I just need to see a photo and I'm like, oh, you look like a dick, you know? And like you're working for the family business because you're unhirable. Who would hire you?

Ian and DJTJ both have that. They have extreme, you know, they have like punchable faces, I guess is the only way to really say it. You can't talk about violence. I'm not advocating for punching it. I'm just saying they have punchable faces. Oh, yes, he just has a punchable face. Yeah. Yeah, we, you know, but we don't condone violence.

No, no, God no. Well, Kevin McCarthy, not our best representative. of thoughts in this country. He has an idea about where he's going to move Congress to once he takes over. Disneyland? The difference is going to happen

in 20 days from now on January 3rd. I will move hearings to the border. So these committees in Congress in Washington won't hold these hearings here. It'll be at the border so the Democrats can no longer avoid the situation.

They've got to learn firsthand what is going on. And the American public has to understand what's happening. So they're looking for $4 billion. I'll take things that will never happen for $800, please. I'll say this. I recently rewatched the amazing TV show that should get a million more seasons, Alpha House. And I feel like what would happen on Alpha House is that those alligators Trump talked about putting at the border, that the one that they piloted in the program to see how that would go will come out while the hearing is happening at the border and come in an attack like Jim Jordan or something.

Oh my God, that would be like, what movie was that with Adam Sandler and the alligator came out of the golf course and bit the guy's other hand off? Happy Gilmore. Happy Gilmore. This seems like it would be a skit from that. McCarthy does not know what he's doing. Like, he can't move anything. He can't move people to vote for him, let alone move a fucking committee. I mean, the idea that the congresspeople who, like, barely work are going to actually.

fly down to the border for their job. Come on. Who are you kidding? This is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Also, I do want to say that, again, we do not condone violence. And if an alligator did bite off Jim Jordan's hand, that would be a bad thing. Listen, he's a wrestler. Remember, he can take the alligator. Come on.

Yeah. That's why I give it to him. He would ignore the alligator, though, until it actually did something. This is true. Okay. In other scary things that happen in this country, Kelly Ed Codway was on TV. Oh, full stop. And, you know, there was a lot of things that Mr. Trump was.

Like I always say, I was very disappointed. He was our first atheist president. But she has a different thought about what he was the first president we had. I would say is Donald Trump is the first president to come to office already in favor of gay marriage. Mrs. Trump, Melania Trump, was honored one year ago at Mar-a-Lago by the log cabin Republicans. I think that somehow the Republicans, Democrats think they have a monopoly on this. What they have a monopoly on is inviting drag queens to the people's house as a representation of what their values are. Oh, my God.

What? What is their obsession with drag queens? It's amazing. It is amazing. You think that they would like it because they all dress up as patriots and we know that's a fucking lie. At least drag queens offer some joy and fun and dance. Like, is there something wrong with that? I'm just, I'm so confused about this obsession as if a myriad.

of straight women haven't been to a fucking drag show all for their bachelorette parties and like all of it's just it's so dumb and Donald Trump as a pro gay president miss me with it. Log Cabin Republicans are also a group of self-hating white gay men, okay? I mean, I mean of all the groups to offer in your defense like, yeah, that ain't it. That ain't it. I have a theory of why the drag queen thing is happening personally. Oh, Jesse has a theory. here we go. Tell us, Jesse.

They saw that video of Rudy as a drag queen. They tried to distance some sense from it. Well, that's a theory. He was one of my better ones. No, that is actually a pretty good one. But they are. They are obsessed with trans people. They're obsessed with pronouns.

They're obsessed with drag queens. Like, they always accuse people on the left of being obsessed with this stuff. People on the left are just like, no, they just let people live their lives. Like, that's the extent of the obsession for people on the left. left is let people live their lives. God for bit. But then, you know, it's just, it's, it's, it's the right that just will not shut up about pronouns with their dumb jokes and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, and, they're all obsessed. They really are, and they're obsessed with sex. It's from their, what is it, Marjorie Taylor Green's

butt plug comments to, to the drag queens. I'm like, you all are some repressed motherfuckers. And maybe if you just, like, opened yourselves up a little bit, instead of worrying about oppressing everybody else, you could let some joy into those hateful hearts. I want to paint all their offices in rainbow and explosive glitter. I'm going to start drag queen protests all around like these Republican offices on the Hill. I won't go to their red states because I'm not trying to get people killed, but I want to do it all around Capitol Hill, just following them. Just imagine like a second line, a New Orleans second line of fucking drag queens following Marjor and Taylor Green. Just chasing her around.

I think you're kind of right, though. I feel like if MTV went, like, if she went to one good drag show, she might come out of that and be like a totally different person and suddenly be like sane and realize, and like her eyes had just been opened to the whole world out there that she didn't realize, you know, existed. And it would just be like an unbelievable miracle. Okay.

Well, we mentioned New Orleans. One of the politicians that hails from the great state of Louisiana, is a new reoccurring segment, it seems, which is Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana has an interesting thought. All white people, for example, they think are racist. All black people they think are victims. All women are powerless. They don't see us as individuals. That's why I appreciate what Elon Musk has done so much. He's taken a very courageous stand for the First Amendment. The man, he's, he's, he's, They're beating on him like he stole Christmas. But he's tough.

He's tough as a pine knot. And the man's got guts. He's got oranges the size of beach balls. And thanks to Elon Musk, thanks to Elon Musk. You're right. We're going to have to get some new conspiracy theories because the old ones turned out all to be true. Sorry, I don't even know where you guys start with that. That's like there's this thing going around where like this AI can do these chats and answer questions.

That was like if you ask. The chat GPT. Yeah. If you ask the chat PBT or whatever to come up with a bunch of really dumb metaphors, that's what it would spit back out of you. Also, have you all seen the topless photo of Elon Musk? Who is thinking of arms are he talking about? No, he didn't. I think it was the wrong body part.

He didn't say arms. He said oranges. Oh, okay. He has oranges the size of beach balls. Oh, oranges. Oh, I get it. Yeah. They're obsessed with balls as well.

Exactly. But also the top of his photo. Yeah, I hate you for bringing that up. Yeah, I apologize. Because now, guess what image is in my head now? That milky whiteness? Come on, how does that differ from any other guy? I can't.

Like, John Kennan, he is just, he is a, a walking-talking S&L skit. Like, he just embarrasses himself every time he opens up his mouth. And, you know, the other thing that they're also obsessed with on the right is their masculinity and lifting up these very fragile, very sad, spineless jellyfish motherfuckers as like their saviors to masculinity. He's so tough. What is he done?

What is Elon Musk done to show how tough he is? Inherit Daddy's money, invested in some shit, con other people into some other shit. fake self-driving cars? What makes him actually tough? I'm so confused by them. Oh, that's it. I'm done. Folks, I'm happy to welcome to The New Abnormal. Josh Bivens, who is the director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. Josh, you join the New Abnormal on a day that we haven't seen the Dow take quite as steep a tumble in the last couple of months as it has, closing. you know, roughly, I think, at 734 points down, folks seem to be very concerned that we are headed not only for the end of the year, but into a recession. And we have all of these conversations

that we throw around words and we say inflation and deflation and we're talking about jobs numbers. Can you help just make sense of kind of the nonsense of where our economy is and why it is in such a fraught place at this time? I can try. I mean, I would say it's in a slightly more uncertain confusing place right now than in a very long time. I've been an economist for a while. I tend to feel like I have a very good sense about where the economy is and where it's going to go over the next like three to six months and not so much today. The big question in front of us is whether or not a recession is on the horizon. That is like one big question, but I think it's the biggest one. And on that one, you know, until about two months ago, I'd have said, no, the most

reliable measure of that stuff is like what's happening in the labor market. Are people getting hired at a good pace? Are they getting wage increases at a good pace? And all of a sudden, labor market data is telling very contradictory things depending on which precise like survey you look at. And so like one survey that is of employers and is generally considered the more reliable one on a very short term basis. That's still telling pretty good news, like robust hiring going on. A survey of households, which, you know, ask people, are you looking for a job? Are you unable to find work? that's, you know, less reliable in like a two to three months period. But we're now coming up on like three to four months of pretty weak performance in that one. And then there's been some academic

papers recently saying, nope, even that employer survey that people think is reliable, when the revisions come in at the end of the year, when we have a full census of workers that we get every year, it's actually going to show we wildly overestimated job growth over the year. And so all these are lots of contradictory signals blinking. So I don't know if I can make a lot of sense of it. My sense is we're not in recession now. We're not going to be in one in the next two to three months, but after that, it gets hazy and one might well be coming. I think that a lot of what has been happening is that we have so many people trying to look

into a crystal ball that seems quite murky or cracked at this point. I think that coming off of, and even though we are still in the COVID-19 pandemic, that coming off of COVID in the way in which production was shut down, millions of people lost their job going into a war. We're not at war, but we are certainly helping Ukraine with billions of dollars of aid. And there was a lot of production on that side of the world that we rely on that has also been disrupted. And so I wonder, as we talk a lot about inflation and raising and lowering, can you talk a bit about what the feds are doing in terms of raising, numbers are potentially what is having us teeter at this time. And there are some people that say that

it's the opposite, right? That their job is to regulate, to make sure that we stay fairly even keel. But there have been so many interest rate hikes. There have been so many things that have been done over the course of the last few years that it seems to be really causing general concern, but also confusion. Yeah, I think all that's right. And I think the key thing is to sort of your opening a couple of sentences about like, this is just a very weird time and just forget society, just in terms of trying to figure out what's going on sort of in the economy. Right. It has often been the case that if you saw like low unemployment and a really big uptick in

inflation and all you had to go on was like economic history, you might say, oh, it seems like unemployment's been pushed a bit too low that overheated the economy, that gave workers a little excess bargaining power, the ability to like demand wage increases higher than firms can afford. And so they have to raise prices. And so we've set off sort of an inflationary spiral. But, you know, there's also another explanation for the rise in inflation we've seen, which is exactly the sort of extreme distortions imposed on the economy by the pandemic and by the Russian-Ukraine war. And those distortions, like that story sounds much more convincing to me. When you have all these people who in the course of just a couple months in 2020,

but through 2021, just stopped buying lots of face-to-face services and tried to jam all of their income into like durable goods and new home renovations to make up for that. So quit your gym, buy a Peloton, stop taking public transit to work, add a home office to your house. Like that's just a whipsaw in demand. And they tried to jam it exactly into sectors whose supply chains were collapsing. So at the same time, people decided they needed a Peloton, the Peloton factories, and the shipping sort of broke down. To me, you look at those two explanations. We just flat overheated the economy.

We gave people too much help with the American Rescue Plan or something like that. Versus we got hit by huge shocks, and those ripple effects are going to take a while to die down. And they lead to two very different predictions. And one is if we overheated, then the Fed really does need to raise rates really fast and cool this economy off before inflation spirals. The other explanation, you know, the sort of shocks and ripples is not really. These will settle down themselves. And if the Fed actually raises rates in the face of that, they're not helping much. Right. And they might snuff out the only bright part of the economy, which has been really rapid job growth. Like the idea, if you had told me, we would get down to less than 4% unemployment. And like early 2022, after we saw 22 million people laid off in a single month in 2020. And after the previous recession, it took like 10 years to get the unemployment rate back to where it was pre-recession. I'd have said that's amazing. So the labor market.

has been really strong, and it's been the only real lifeline and source of strength for American workers over this time. So the stakes are really high. Like if the Fed really thinks we need to weaken the labor market a lot to get inflation under control, that's going to cause a lot of damage, especially if they just don't have to do it because that's not the source of inflation. And in my view is that's not the source of inflation. Inflation is the crazy distortions imposed by the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. We need to live through it. No one likes it. But the only thing that would make it worse would be to snuff out the strength in the labor market that has been the only bright spot in the economy over the past couple of years. You wrote a piece on EPA site on a soft landing, right? And basically saying exactly what it is, you know, that you began to lay out is that the feds don't have to do this thing, right?

They don't have to constrict in such a way that the ripple effects of pain will be felt in households across the country, right? that there is another way. Can you talk about one just in plain English as to what that way is? But then also, number two, why wouldn't they choose a soft landing? Why wouldn't they take a recourse that would cause less pain? Yeah. And so, I mean, just two sentences to start, like what I mean by soft landing, because it's a term that gets thrown around a lot. to me, a soft-landing would be we end 2023, so we get over the next 12 months, and over that time, unemployment hasn't risen above 4%. So maybe it ticks up a tiny bit from today's quite low level, but not much. And inflation, maybe we're not back down to 2% inflation at that point, which is like the long-run target, but it's substantially lower than it is today and looks to be like headed

toward normal. Like, that to me is a soft landing. We never cause the recession. And yet we do get inflation under control because everyone does want inflation under control. So that's the goal. And I think, like I said, my view is if you think a lot of the inflation we saw over the past couple years is those extreme distortions caused by the shocks of the pandemic and the war, and they set off ripple effects that, you know, they were big, but they will subside, then we can have that. Like, there is no need to really sort of, quote unquote, cool down the economy. Cooling down the economy is not getting at the source of inflation, which again, were those shocks and ripple effects. Instead, it'll just layer a little extra pain on top of the inflation we're feeling now. And so what it requires from the Fed is

taking on a little bit of risk that maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the economy really does need some cooling. And so if they sort of hold their fire on interest rate increases, maybe eight months from now, they go, you know what? Inflation is not settled down at all. You were wrong. And so that that's the risk they're taking on. It's fair enough for an institution that is often graded on how well are you controlling inflation that they don't want to take on that risk, but they have two jobs. Like, their official mandate from Congress is not just keeping inflation stable. It's also targeting maximum employment. And I just think they weigh those risks very differently in a way that is not great for American workers. They seem to take the inflation risk really seriously and are willing to flirt with a recession and a lot of economic

damage and missing their mandate on targeting maximum employment in the name of keeping inflation really low. And I think, you know, the evidence to me says that they don't need to do that. There's strong evidence inflation is normalizing, even with like today's, what, 3.7% unemployment rate. Why not just go a little further with that? Inflation is heading in the right direction. Is it really so important to make like 2% inflation happen three months more quickly, even at the cost of very high unemployment? And so I just think when you ask, like, why aren't they shooting for a soft landing? You know, I think they want it. But I think what they're revealing is they take their inflation control mandate a lot more seriously than they take their full employment mandate. And I think

that's a real mistake. And I think, you know, that that's the real dilemma in front of us right now. Thank you for that assessment. Why is it that the American worker is always the scapegoat? Why don't we ever seem to look at, in my humble, progressive opinion, who is the cause of a lot of economic pain? It isn't because workers are actually in a position to be able to get a living wage. People are not asking for above and beyond, right? They're asking for basic work protections. They're asking for better health care. They're asking for a living wage. And yet, when we talk about this in the media, we talk about quiet quitting. We talk about people not showing up. We denigrade one generation over another. Why is the American worker a scapegoat

for when the economy is turning south? Yeah. I mean, to me, the obvious, answers, it sort of lets policymakers off the hook. And so it was much clear, you know, I think it's clear today, but just to turn back to the last recession we had. And, you know, the recession was only 2008, 2009, but it literally took a decade before we got back to the pre-recession unemployment rate. So basically a decade of wasted economic potential. And during those years, like 2013, 14, 15, unemployment rate still higher than it should have been. Wage growth was terrible. And you just had people, instead of saying maybe Congress should not impose such terrible austerity, maybe Republican governors and legislators around the country should actually not impose terrible

austerity. Maybe we should do more to spur demand. Instead, it was just, you know, there's a skills mismatch. Workers just don't have the skills that modern employers need. And that turned out not to be true at all. A couple years later, we had an incredibly low unemployment. Everyone hadn't skilled up in that time period. There was just more demand in the economy. The Trump administration came in. They cut taxes, which was a horrible and inefficient way to spur demand, but it actually does boost it a bit. And then what people really miss out on in 2017, we increased federal spending quite a bit. Like, it was no longer in Republican interest to strangle the economy. And so they stopped strangling it. And we got very low unemployment. And it wasn't because the workers got smarter overnight. They've always been fine. It's just because we fed the economy what it needed at that point. And I think you see sort of the same thing today. We've had this big increase in inflation. And the first. sort of resort is, well, we absolutely need to cool the economy down because, you know, if you let unemployment get too low, then we're going to have this wage price spiral. But wages, except for like the past two months, have been like wage growth has been lagging inflation over this

entire time period. Like real wages for a lot of workers have actually been falling. The idea that this is like workers run amok in grabbing all the pie and somehow causing problems, it's like the exact opposite of what's going on. I think one thing that's making people feel that story is right is like two things. One, even I'm a little surprised that over the past two years, workers have been able to protect themselves a little better than I would have guessed from a very large price spike caused by something coming from outside the labor market. I sort of thought, like if prices spike because of oil and food and corporate, you know, profit margins going through the roof, I'd have been like, yeah, nominal wages aren't going to budget all. Workers are just going to take a mammoth hit.

And then, you know, there were some weird stuff in 2021 and 2022 that actually gave them some temporary bargaining power, and so they were able to protect themselves a bit, but they were never the driver of inflation. And then I do think there has been a welcome and good thing, in part because job growth has been fast, that low-wage workers have seen some decent growth over the past couple of years, and people seem to think that must be a problem. And to my mind, that's just a really good thing. They've needed a raise for a long time.

They've needed really tight labor markets for a long time. They are not driving inflation. Basically, it's something that should be celebrated, but it's unusual. and by definition people see low-wage workers is, well, they must not have the skills needed. And of course, they've had the skills needed all along. They just needed a boost to their bargaining power. They got it temporarily for a couple of years. And so people read that as a problem rather than a bright spot in the economy.

And so I think you're exactly right. Every problem is sort of workers' fault and everything good happens to them is actually a problem that should be snuffed out. Yeah, it's just, you know, I find it kind of extraordinary. And I think that, you know, I want your opinion. I think that the pandemic in a lot of ways was really eye-opening. Not only, obviously, to the economists set and political analysts and all of these things, but to regular American workers, whether low-wage workers or high-wage workers, where they realize that the idea of how we work needed to change, right?

And that we'd been living this life kind of on this hamster wheel, just kind of keeping our heads above water in a lot of ways. And there was an opportunity, tell me if I'm wrong, during that time for workers, like you said, to be able to take some of the power to, to take some of the power back, but to balance out the scales. Because the power has never in this country been with the workers, right? And whereas you wouldn't have these, you know, extraordinary billionaires and ultra-wealthy wouldn't even be a term if we actually had a balance in terms of who was providing the work and who was extracting it. And so I just wanted to get your thought as we, you know, kind of move through the last

three years. Was there an opportunity and is there still some type of opportunity to balance these scales or is it just forever going to be tipped in the favor of the ultra wealthy and in my opinion, the ultra greedy? I definitely do think there are some lessons from the past. couple years about what can, like you say, sort of level of playing field or tilt the scales a bit more towards sort of like low and moderate wage workers. And a couple of things in particular stand out. And I talked about them before, like the temporary sources of bargaining power that some low wage workers had in 2021 and early 2022. Part of it really was the pandemic aid. Like for the strange 15 month period, we actually kind of had a functioning in welfare state.

Like we had an unemployment insurance system that covered many more workers than usual and provided quite a bit more generous unemployment compensation than we normally do. Normally, we were on the outer edge of stingy when it comes to unemployment insurance. If you compare us across rich countries, that was not the case for those 15 months. And I think it sort of let people get some savings in their savings accounts, which let them be a little less desperate and let them pass on the first job that came if that job was terrible. and just that little bit of extra choosiness gave them a lot of power in the labor market. Like I'm talking about there's actually like academic studies that show like how much like liquid savings helps workers actually get a little bit of bargaining power by being choosing.

And it's like $2,000. And so I think the pandemic aid was actually generous enough that you had a lot of people who were able to pass on, you know, terrible jobs that they would have had to take before. And just that little bit of oomph really gave them a much better spot in the labor market. And then two, I just think that the mammoth reshuffling, like when we laid off like the entire restaurant sector and basically severed all employment ties. And then pretty much every employer in that sector at the same time was like, well, now I'm going to try to reopen. And they realized, I'm bidding against everybody else at the same time for my entire staff, not just one position at a time or another. And so that combined with the fact that we actually generated a pretty good recovery because we spent enough money this time, just gave workers like this chance. And to play employers off against each other, which is really how it's supposed to work. I was going to say, what you're saying sounds like, oh, isn't that how things are supposed to work in a fair and a just economy? Yeah, competition's like always the reason why workers have to take pay cuts. It's a competitive world out there. What's you're going to do? It's also supposed to

be the reason why employers have to pay more money a lot of times. But like you say, that's often been way too one way. There's like some clout in 2021 and 2022 that they're going to haven't had in a while, but it's not permanent. The aid won away. The sort of scramble is over. We didn't do anything permanent, like change the law to actually allow people who want to join a union to actually form a union. Like, that would have been a permanent change that would have shifted some power. So I'm a little worried that we learned some lessons, but we're not going to heed them. And we're going to try to get back to the pre-COVID disempowered workforce that we had. And that would be a real shame. It would be a real shame, but it seems that that is the direction that we're headed in.

Thanks so much for your insight, for your analysis and making the time to make sense, frankly, out of nonsense in a lot of ways. Really appreciate you joining The New Abnormal. Thanks for having me. Hope you enjoy checking out this episode of The New Abnormal. We're back every Tuesday, Friday, and Sunday. If you enjoyed it, please share it with a friend and keep the conversation going. This podcast is a Daily Beast production with production by Jesse Cannon and Seamus Calder. Want more great listens?

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