The Daily Beast Podcast - Trump's New Blunder Proves He's A Loser: Carville

Episode Date: September 3, 2026

James Carville returns to the Daily Beast Podcast with a blunt prediction for the midterms, arguing that Donald Trump’s grip on Republicans could become their biggest liability as voters head to the polls. Carville weighs in on Republicans trying to distance themselves from Trump, the spectacle and price tag of Trump’s upcoming Dallas convention, and why he believes Democrats should cover it relentlessly. He also delivers a stark warning about Pete Hegseth’s impact on the military, argues that Trump could walk away from the presidency when Republicans turn on him, and makes a striking prediction about who will control the Senate in January. #ad Go to https://ro.co/dailybeast to see if you qualify and get started on Ro. For side effects of GLP-1 medications, including Boxed Warning, go to https://ro.co/safety Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Let your morning change you. Discover coffee plus on espresso.com. He's selling photographs for $88,600 a photo. It's a giant scam. A seat costs quarter of a million dollars. You could go to 10 U.S. open to just a stupid mini-condition. It's all a grip. It's all a scam. It's a giant money-making operation. For God's sakes, cover this convention, wall to wall. It's the most beneficial thing we got going.

Y'all got to come up with any better news. That's going to excite and irritate and turn out more Democrats than boiling that stupid mini-convention off. Welcome to the Daily Beast podcast. I'm Sarah Ewall Weiss in for Joanna Coles. Our guest today is James. James Carville, the Democratic strategist, and he is sharing his thoughts on all things Trump. We get into the president's abysmal polling numbers heading into the midterms and how he's attempting to right the ship with that massive convention taking place in Dallas. Carville will also share his thoughts on the president's Natalie Harp problem, and then he'll give us his predictions for the 2020 midterms with some that might surprise you. But before we do, please take a moment to subscribe on YouTube. Make sure you like us, share us with your friends, let everybody know that they should listen to the Daily Beast podcast, and please subscribe to our YouTube channel. We're also on Substack, so check us out there and the Daily Beast.com.

Here's my conversation with James Carville. After what we've seen in recent weeks, the U.S. is striking Iran again. We've seen soaring gas prices. The president is posting about data centers and those who don't want them being poor and backwards. He's intensified this trade war with Canada and he's posting all this AI slop. Do you think the president actually wants Republicans to win the midterms? It's a great question. And the answer is he doesn't give a shit.

It's the last thing. And they are going to realize that they're going to wake up. He said, that guy didn't care. We get, we voted for him. We walked a plank. We wouldn't say anything. We stood mute. We let him do what he wanted to.

And we thought he cared about us. And they're a pack of gigantic fools that they ever thought that Trump would care about his reelection. He doesn't anymore give a shit about them than anything in the world. And they're going to find that out of them. And you can't tell. I mean, Mike Johnson's too stupid to see that. So he'll learn. He'll learn.

I mean, do you think there's anything Republican? at this point can do to separate themselves from this train that Trump's on? Look, the Republicans are three voters away from winning this election in November, and they are in order to father, the son, and the Holy Ghost. Okay? How can you vote for everything that you voted for and then somehow to separate yourself from Labor Day to Election Day? Try it.

They know they need their car in a trap because he's got a 75 percent approval among Republicans. Of course, there's 95% disapproval among Democrats. If they try to break their consultants and say, if you do that, we can't win it without the Trump voters. You can't win it with them. And you just got yourself in a hell of a pickle. I mean, just think about that. You always look, and you look at a poll, and this is polling season. So we've had UMass and you had another one come out, and they're going to keep coming out, Everything there's a season, right? There's a fall season, there's a baseball season.

There's an earning season. There's a rating season. We're in the middle of the biggest polling season of every two years. And that's Labor Day, you know, nine days up to it, including Labor Day. So we're going to see four more polls, and they're not going to be much different than what we see before. And then what are you going to do if you're down? You're kind of caught betwixt in between. If you're sick with him, he's massively unpopular.

But if you leave him, he's got 75% of the Republicans. So they're just, they're in a straitjacket. And they richly deserve it, by the way. I don't feel sorry to them at all. It is interesting. It seems like they're in a lose-lose situation. I mean, something we have seen is Republicans start to scrub, Trump specifically from their websites and changed it to being independent leadership

versus of America first Trump endorsed candidate. I mean, voters see through this, right? Well, okay, what voter goes to a Republican congressman's website? Not very many. And most of them that go there are fellow Republicans. and I think it'd be smart in some of these instances for the Democrats to say, you know what he said three months, three weeks ago?

And look what he's got now. He's trying to run away from everything that, or she's trying to run away from everything they did. I mean, there's all kinds of things too. But, you know, when they're going to get asked in debates? And look, I'm with President Trump when he's right, but I'm beginning when he's wrong. But he wouldn't say anything about the stupid war.

Well, it's not my job to question a person. president. Well, why don't come up with something? It's not going to work. I wanted to ask you, Senator John Ossov ignited a firestorm with just the mere mention of Trump's aide, Natalie Harp, who is basically his shadow everywhere he goes. Awesome mentioned her with just three words on the campaign trail. Why do you think that was so effective in blowing up the conversation in recent weeks about Donald Trump? Well, the press is very trepidious about talking about somebody's kind of relation. And the insinuation is, is there anything, which I have no evidence there is. I don't think there's anything sexual there. But it's always the kind of thing.

And he just pierced the ball. And once he said something, then that gave everybody, everybody was talking about it among themselves. And then that just gave people permission to go public. with it. And it had three words, I'm read them and re-read them. There's nothing wrong with it at all. And then a lot of people in the right, what crazy? What do you go praise you about? And it is a, I don't think of, I've suggested there's anything like immoral about it, but it is a little weird that you have this 35-year-old female who's obviously obsessed with an 80-year-old male. It's a story people find interesting.

I don't think the guy's got a lot of friends. He's worth his wife ain't sure he can talk to it. I mean, I don't know. He needs some companionship as much as I hate him. The guy's got to have some social contact or some kind of a feedback of somebody that thinks he's a good guy. You know, I could say he gets none of that at home. This episode is sponsored by Roe. One thing that can keep people from even looking into G.

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him to turn things around at this stage? Well, I can tell you what's going to happen. They're going to try every identity woke, defund the police, blacknecks, birthing person shit that they can come off with. I think it doesn't work anymore. It did work at one time. Be very honest about it. I guess the hope is that the economic could come,

but I don't think people could feel it even. I don't think wages are gone anywhere. where they need a democratic scandal. It's been a responsible you get. You know, to kind of exploit that. I mean, all it can do is cut their lawsuit. But, and blame it, they're going to try. And the difference between 236 house seats

and 221 house seats is all the difference in the world. I mean, Hakeem needs some measure where he can't be held hostage by the left wing of a party. In terms of the convention next week, the president is hosting a convention. It's been dubbed Trumpapalooza. I just want to get your thoughts on what you think of that move, gathering all these Republicans, some of whom are saying they're skipping it all together in Dallas for this two-day extravaganza to promote the president, to promote Republicans heading into the midterms?

What we need to do is take Roe. Okay, who shows up and who done? Okay, we know Ken Pacton's going to show up. Darling Graham is going to show up. Susan Collins is not going to show up. Will John Houston show up? Well, Ashley Hinton, if that's up Iowa, will she show out? Who's going to come and show up there?

Will Cindy Hyde-Smiths show up? Will, who's the Moody or whatever name is in Florida? I can't think of a name. Is she going to show up? Yeah. That's going to be, and what you've got to do

is tell them we're taking the rope because they don't want to show up in one sense, but they know they can't disrespect the king and another. Jam them. I've never, I've been doing paid speeches since 1993.

I've never, and I can't be there. I've got to be. get them paid to blab my soup and mouth and veil. And as long as I'd have goddamn old shit could be in Dallas. I would have loved to have been there. Is there anyone in this scenario that this convention, in terms of Republicans, specifically, that benefits? It'd have to be, I don't have no primaries left.

No. No, no. Not really. You may be some really right winger, you know, in a really hardcore Trump place. Never somebody from like North Louisiana might help them or somebody from, you know, Central Alabama, maybe, Middle Tennessee, maybe doubt it. But that's where you'd find somebody. Not money.

So essentially, I mean, sounds like it's a massive waste of money. going into the final stretch. Of course it is. You know, he's selling photographs for $88,600 a photo. How did it come up with $88,600? I don't know, but I'm sure there's a breeze by it. It's a giant scam. It costs, a seat cost quarter of a million dollars.

You could go to 10 U.S. Open to what you, to go to just a stupid mini-convention. I mean, think about it. It's a, it's all a griff. It's all a scam. It's a giant money-making operation. And it's been covered somewhat in the media, but not near enough. Not near enough.

And you know, the whole press needs to be there in full regalia. The stupidest shit I hear is we shouldn't give them platform. I have a platform. The stupidest thing is, you have Democrats, say, I go to those frogs. I'm not giving it. No, go. Go everywhere. If, for God's sakes, cover this convention, wall to wall, it's the most beneficial thing we got going.

I mean, the beach ought to have five reporters there, wall to wall, let people know about it. You're not going to come up with any better news. That's going to excite and irritate and turn out more Democrats than blowing that stupid many-convention are. I actually will be on the ground in Dallas next week to see everything that is happening. So the Daily Beast will be there to cover it in full. Have a roll call. Have a special graphic. Who's here?

Who's not? All right? Yeah, we've been asking folks whether they are or are not going. I will note that a lot of folks are trying not to answer whether they are not going. I understand. I understand. Yeah, and they're not going to tell you before, but if neither they are, you're there or you're not. Exactly.

We're going to count it. And in Battleground states, it's noticeable. Some of them are not going and are voicing that they're frustrated. Well, they have scheduling conflicts. You know, their daughter has, you know, dance lessons or ballet lessons. And, oh, my son's got a pee-wee football game is nowhere. They have a thousand things they need to do. All right?

My wife wants me to go to my in-laws. go ahead, pick an excuse. You're either there or you're not there. And just keep the roll. You've got to try breakfast at A&W. And what better way than with a delicious Pratt organic coffee, starting with just $1 all day, every day now until December 31st. You got to try breakfast at participating A&W locations in Ontario.

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Discover coffee plus on espresso.com. In terms of Republicans and them being frustrated with what's being said, how they're being able to convey their own messaging, what they have to run on, something else that has really thrown a wrench in it for some of them is the president's obsessive focus on making over Washington, D.C. and specifically the White House. And one of those things was the Supreme Court handing Trump what is a. a court win, if you will, in terms of allowing him to move forward with the ballroom. In terms of the politics, though, is anything that he is doing in D.C. or at the White House, a victory politically? No. Most people have never been to Washington. And what they've said is pictures.

And I'm sure to think to Washington by and you, but it's far. I mean, it's like whoever ran for president and said, I'm going to change the architect. of Washington. Actually, the architecture of Washington is really fit. It's what is known as Republican architecture. So we don't do. You know, if you go to London and you see Buckingham Palace or you see leftovers from imperialism, that was never who we were. We were a Republican country, that Republican being small or Republican. And he doesn't even understand the history of country. Washington was intensely designed by law farm, and those that came after him, the White

House, everybody, when I first time I saw the White House, all the time ago and I'd have been in Washington, and I was surprised. I thought it would be something more granddad and everything, and it's intentionally that way. It's nice enough, but it's not anything, you know, over the top, I don't think. It's perfectly nice-looking traditional building. Do you think that the president will just be emboldened to move forward after the Supreme Court allowed him to go forward this ballroom to do other things in Washington? And what does that mean for Congress here and what they've been able to accomplish or in this case not accomplish?

I don't know if it has anything to do. They voted on one thing, the big beautiful bill. They haven't done anything else. There's nothing left for them to do. All right. This Congress is not, I don't do anything, you know, investigate it. They voted for a million of the most catastrophic piece of legislation since Smoot Hollyo.

I don't know, something like that. What can they do? And what can they pass? Another bathroom bill? Okay, go ahead. How do you see a lame duck Donald Trump functioning for then the next two years? Two years, as a lame duck, what does he do now? Let me repeat what I've said on numerous occasions.

He's going to quit. He's going to walk away. Unlike most people, unlike most people, I know what it's like to be on the wrong side of what he's getting heard to be on. We went through that in 94. We were all younger. Clinton was like, I think, 48 years old. And he had an idiot, nude gangwitch as an opposition. So we were able to come back rather nicely, thank you.

He doesn't have that. He's a soft man. They're not going to return his calls. They're going to blame him. The whole culture is going to change. The whole conversation is going to change. The German foreign minister is not going to give a crap what he says. No one is.

He is not prepared. It's one thing to imagine what it would be like to get hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson. quite another thing to actually get hit in the mouth by Mike Tyson. And he's going to get hit in the mouth, hard. What he's going to do, he's going to throw the white flag. He'll go to Vance. And the lawyer is going to say, look, you can pardon yourself. It's a 50-50 deal.

If Vance is president, he pard you, it's 100%. That's what he's going to do. And people think what I'm saying is not controversial. I think it's going to happen. I just don't think he could, I don't think he can take what's coming his way. And it's going to be so painful. You can't believe it. I'm curious because he obviously has a team of yes men around him, cabinet officials. Some of them have actually been getting out on the campaign trail, trying to make a name for themselves, stumping for members of Congress and candidates on the road.

Do any of them have a political future in your mind? The whole deck is going to be reshombed. couple come November. So right now, whoever Trump wants to be your Republican nominee in 2028, ask him, well, does he like JD? Does he like Marco? Is he looking somewhere else?

He is going, you've got to realize you're going to be living in a different world. The world that you're going to be living in two months from now, I guess maybe a little bit more, two months in a week from now, doesn't resemble the world that you're living in now. and they're going to be ready to move on. Let me tell you, political parties,

and I've learned to learn this in 2024, I'll kind of do it going, they don't like losing. As long as you're winning, they'll give you great leeway. If you're losing the ancient, and that was our problem, Democrats wanted to be,

more about being superior and moral and been able to look down on people and they're about winning elections. And you know what happened? They lost because they're fools. They're all sitting there, huddle around some idiotic NPR receiver talking about what wonderful moral people they are.

Who gives us shit? If you're a wonderful moral person, if you don't win an election, you hadn't done anything. Is there any cabinet member that is actually helpful to fellow Republicans on the road? Well, you know, if I were a Republican-a-Rusian-A-Ros. And I took somebody to Justin Parish or Lincoln Parish and North Louisiana. I mean, they would like.

But bottom, fine. I don't know if there's any kind of cabinet member that stands out. I don't think Trump would put them in there after anybody had any kind of cashier at their own. But, you know, the 75% of the Republican voyage, there's 75% of the 40%. You know, they're pretty intense. We need them to stay where they are. They stay right there. Be strongly approved for Trump

and penalize any Republican running that doesn't agree with you. That's very important. So keep them in the box. You follow what I'm saying? Mm-hmm. I don't want his Republican approval to go much longer, much lower.

Because I just encourage him to break with him. And we don't want that. We want you to stay on a ship. And what better way than with a delicious pret organic coffee? Starting with just $1 all day, every day now until December 31st. You got to try breakfast at A&W. At participating A&W locations in Ontario. I do want to ask specifically about one of the folks who's been out on the road,

who's also gained his own attention and criticism recently, and that is, Defense Secretary Pete Hegsef. He is denying talk that he's running in 2028. I want your take. Is there a universe where Hegseff excels as a 2028 candidate? So Defense Department, the United States military, it takes years and years. People have no idea what the kind of training, the expertise, what it takes to float an aircraft carrier and have it work. And he is systemating what it takes to be an Army general, what it takes to supply people,

what it takes for anything you can imagine. He is systematically destroying it. All of the people in the county, Bobby Kennedy, Peter Rubio, you name it, Todd Blanche, the most destructive person in the entire United States government, Maybe as much of all the rest of them put together as Pete Hensphere. Because he is destroying something, you know, you can bring the justice of all of it back pretty quick. You could go hire a bunch of lawyers.

You can poach law firms. You can go to these elite law firms and you could hire. That's not going to take long. The damage he's done to the institutional military is profound and it's not going to be able to be cured overnight. It's going to take some time. And by way, how would you like, if all of the secrets that a nation can have of all the things that you would not want people who do not wish you well to know is your munition supply? Well, they read the papers and everybody is there and all these generals are leagued in admirals and saying, we're running out of ammo. Well, good.

Now everybody knows we out of ammo. And when we're just pounding sand with it, our greatest secrets you can, a country can have. It's strength level and particularly its munitions level. In terms of Pete Hegsett's time at the Defense Department, he's politicized the military. He's brought in MAGA influencers. We've recently learned from reports. How do you undo the politicization of our military? You can not do the politicization, but you have a new secretary of effects.

It's very clear that the way that you get ahead is to not be political, is to be confident, which is not the way that you get ahead right now. But the people, when you lose a ran to charge, decades of knowing what it's gone up, you can change the culture, but you can't train a four-star. The only way to train is by experience. You've got to be a one-star or a two-star and a three-star. This is not

institutional knowledge and competence that can be replicated that can stop and start again I don't know what's happening at the service academies I'm sure to still educate people pretty well but if you look at what they've done to the top ranks it's going to take a long time

to the U.S. Johnson Marine Corps unfucked the formation, sir, unfucked the formation sir, the formation is fucked up let's just be clear We've talked about the top military brass, but then there's this reality that Hegset was also pushing back on the members of service members, specifically those on the USS Lincoln when they were sounding the alarms on the conditions of the ship. That ship has finally made port after being deployed to the Middle East in Thailand. And the reports coming out are that it's covered in rust. It needs a paint job at the very least.

There were horrific conditions reported on board, and Hegzeth pushed back on family members sounding the alarms. He denied all of it. What does that say about how the military is being treated and how it was handled in this situation? And does that make you concerned moving forward for the next few years? Okay, so that ship was deployed, I think, 250 days. And I think about it. Your sale. First thing is, you got two watches.

So in a 24-hour day, and I think the Navy has a four-hours and four hours. So people go and say, man, I had to work six days this week. I work 10 hours, six days. For six days a week, I put it in 60 hours. They work 12 hours. Actually, I think they have other duties.

It might be the 14 hours a day. every day for 250 days. Suppose you were a night watchman and you spent 12 hours a day and sitting in a chair as opposed to, by the way, what do you have on an aircraft carrier? You got tens of thousands of gallons of fuel.

You got a flight deck that's to be executed with precision like you couldn't bleed. You don't have time to be lax. You blow the whole thing up. So you're sitting there working like an animal, 84 hours a week, 12 times 7, I think of something. I think I'm right.

No, you got to know it. So if you got to go to the dentist or you got to have any kind of time off, or you want time to write home, that goes into your 12 hours. And if you've done that for 250 straight days, it's not just that it's exhausting and tiring and tense it wears on a human condition and on top of that you don't know even why you're doing it

I mean it's one thing if you're trying to get out after Pearl Harbor or you're trying to get out to Midway I mean you're going out there we're going out there to kick the Japanese they don't know what they're why they're there no one's sold them you got to remember just put yourself in a position of a sailor being on an aircraft carrier for 250 straight days working over 12 hours a day. And by way, the longer you are, the kind of less appealing the food gets.

So they try to supply you, or they try to get it from a man now. But you're not getting San Diego rations. You're getting whatever they can come up with in the Arabian Sea. probably not as good. And you don't see your family, you don't see your girlfriend, and you know, now they're in Thailand, and I hope those sailors of, you know, those women and men are having a good time in Thailand.

Let me tell you've been to Thailand, you can have a good time in Thailand. I'll promise you that, they deserve it. It's a good place for them to be. When it comes to the midterms and the Senate or also the House, we've been focusing a lot on battlegrounds, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Georgia. Are there other races that you encourage Democrats not to sleep on right now

based on the landscape we're seeing politically going into November? Mississippi. People who don't understand the state. Okay. Go of Brandon lost about 2.5% in 2023. Biden was president. Trump is not popular in Mississippi. It's 38.5% black.

So black is state to the U. All right. It's a kind of a port state. Gulfport is a reasonably sized port. They have a large agrarian section. The national media has never heard in the Mississippi Delta. Okay, so they're fucking idiots. That's huge.

Kansas, South Carolina. I mean, not even, everybody's kind of caught in to Iowa, okay, and everybody's catching on to Ohio. but this map is going to be, I'll say it right now, you all can run it after the 3rd.

The Democrats are going to control the United States Senate come January. I just don't see any way to know. And I don't think it's going to be 5149 either. When these waves hit, Haley Bobber, who's a very savvy political guy,

actually like Haley, said when you go into a wave election, the side that is going to do good, never realizes how good it's going to do, and the side that it's going to do bad, never realize how bad it's going to do. And I think that's a, I think the bargain rule is applicable here. The president right now is sitting on $400 million with his MAGA ink pack,

Super PAC. Is there anything that he can do with that that should have Democrats deeply concerned? Yeah, give it to the little sisters or poor and ask them to pray for it. That's the most effective use of that money I can come up with. But what he's going to do, he's going to use it to promote himself. And he's now saying, I'm not unpopular. The Republicans are unpopular. And so if I'm a Democrat, I don't have to remind people that this is Trump,

because Trump's going to remind them for me. I mean, it does it. And if I'm, you know, in a tough, if I'm John Huss, I'm like, what is this guy doing? He's 15 points underwater in Ohio. And he's coming in here spending, you know, $40 million telling us how good he is. And just stop and think about it for a second. Sounds like it's going to be a rough next two months in your mind for any Republican running.

I do. Yes, ma'am. All right. James Carville, it's been a pleasure chatting with you. Thank you so much for taking a time. That was my conversation with James Carville. I found it particularly interesting what he had to say specifically about the president's convention and how that will not help Republicans, nor will the $400 million war chest the president

has to spend should he decide to do so ahead of the November elections. It was a pleasure having you. Thank you so much for listening and watching. Please remember to subscribe to the Daily Beast podcast. Follow us on social media and check us out on Substack. I'm Sarah Iwaweiss in for Joanna Coles. Thank you. Big thanks to our production team, Ryan Murray, John Romero, Rachel Passer, Heather Pissarro and Neil Rosenhaus.

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