The Daily Show: Ears Edition - Outrage Over Instagram's Emphasis on Video | Rafael A. Mangual

Episode Date: July 28, 2022

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan angers China, Ronny Chieng examines the Move Oregon's Border movement, and Rafael A. Mangual discusses his book "Criminal (In)Justice."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Finding great candidates to hire can be like trying to find a needle in a haystack. You might get a lot of resumes, but not enough candidates with the right skills or experience. But not with Zip Recruiter. Zip Recruiter finds amazing candidates for you fast. And right now you can try it for free at Zip Recruiter's smart technology. Sip Recruiters' smart technology identifies to the talent for your roles quickly. Immediately after you post your job, zip recruiters powerful matching technology starts showing you qualified people for it, and you can use zip recruiters pre-written invite to apply message to personally reach out to your favorite candidates and encourage them to apply sooner.

Ditch the other hiring sites and let zip recruiter find what you're looking for, the needle in the haystack. Four out of five employers who post on Zip Recruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Try it for free at this exclusive web address. Zip Recruiter.com. Slash. Zip Recruiter. The smartest way to hire. Do nice guys really finish last. I'm Tim Harford, host of the Cautionary Tales podcast, and I'm exploring that very question. Join me for my new miniseries on the Art of Fairness. From New York to Tahiti will examine villains undone by their villainy, monstrous self-devaring

egos and accounts of the extraordinary power of decency. Listen on the I-Heart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You're listening to Comedy Central. Coming to you from New York City, the only city in America. It's the Daily Show. Tonight, doing it for the Graham. Who wants to be Idaho. And Raphael Montgau. This is the the game. Who wants to be Idaho. Rafael Montgual. This is the Daily Show with Trevor Noah. What's going out, everybody, welcome to the D. I'm Trevor Noah. Thank you so much for tuning in.

Thank you for coming out. Thank you so much for being here. Thank you so much for being here. We got a great show. today, I'ma great show. We've got a great show. It's really packed. Nancy Pelosi is kicking off World War III.

We sent Ronnie Chang to Idaho, and Kim Kardashian is gonna beat Mark Zuckerberg's ass. So let's do this, people. Let's jump straight into today's headlines. Okay, before we get into the big stories, let's catch up on a few other things that are going on. First of all, President Biden has officially tested negative for COVID and he got his doctor's approval to come out of isolation. Yes, which is great. Really is great.

It's also the only positive approval he has at the moment, you know? But that's a start, that's a start. In economic news, the only positive approval he has at the moment, you know? But that's a start. That's a start. In economic news, the Federal Reserve has announced that it will be raising interest rates yet again to try and fight inflation. Yeah, so your ability to buy a house has gone from no chance to... What part of no chance don't you understand? Oh, and in pandemic news,

two studies have concluded that COVID-19 almost certainly started at the Wuhan market. Yeah, and I'm so glad we have this information because I mean now it's clear what we have to do, right? We've got to build a time machine and go back in time two years and invest in Peloton because it's going to blow up when the pandemic hits it's going to be huge, make a lot of money. Seriously, what are we supposed to do with this information now? What are you going to do with that? It came from the Wuhan market, well, I'm not buying my groceries there anymore.

Cancel InstaCart order. Oh, and finally, the jackpot for the mega millions lottery is now sitting at over a billion dollars. Billion, which is like a week's worth of gas. And just by the way, just by the way, can I just say how I love how people hate paying taxes? But if you think about it, a lottery is really just taxes. We all put our money into a thing, and then it goes to someone. And then everyone's like, yeah, this is fair. But then if you say to everyone, let's take that money and put a billion dollars into schools, everyone's like, tax jays. I don't. Then you're like, okay, let's all put our money in. And then one person gets it. Everyone's like, yeah, this is great. This is fantastic.

This is a fair system. I don't know why we don't all do it. Oh, actually, actually, there's another thing. The Justice Department is now the justice department is now the tapto dedicate an entire division to Trump. You know, just give him his own one. You know, like they'll have National Security Division, the Civil Rights Division, and then the, what the hell the Donald Trump do now, division? Because, you know, it's going to be a high stress environment.

It's basically going to sound like a fast food joint. witness tamperings, we got a serving of corruption, and don't forget the porn star on the side, come on! We got crimes people, keep it moving! Keep it moving! But anyway, let's move on to some of the bigger news stories of the day. Starting with China, first name, made in. For decades now, the world has been worried about if or when China would choose to invade Taiwan. And the reason for this is that China has said that Taiwan is part of China. But they're out there in the streets acting like they're single. And because China knows that invading Taiwan could spark an international incident, they haven't done it. But since Russia invaded Ukraine and basically only got canceled on Twitter, it's been reported that the Chinese government thinks that now might be the perfect

time to strike. Yeah, it's the same way I saw my friend Brian telling his mom to go to hell and I thought, wow, that's a cool idea. I'm gonna go tell my mom of too. Yeah, that was the day I made the very painful discovery that my mom has a very different parenting style than Brian's mom. Very different. Anyway, Russia is basically Brian, right? And so China is preparing to take what they say is rightfully theirs. But it turns out if they want to get to Taiwan, they're going to need to go through Nancy Pelosi. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan has created a stir in both Beijing and Washington. Tensions are running high between the U.S. and China amid talks of a visit by U.S.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. U.S. officials are working to convince Pelosi of the diplomatic risks of her potential trip. Beijing is furious over a potential trip by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. China sees the Self-World Island as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland. Beijing is against any moot that appears to acknowledge Taiwan as an independent country or makes the U.S.

the defense department urged the U.S. to cancel Pelosi's visit. The department spokesperson said, quote, if the U.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S.S. Department urged the U.S. to cancel Pelosi's visit. The department spokesperson said, quote, if the U.S. insists on taking its own course, the Chinese military will never sit idly by. God damn. Oh, they make it sound like the Chinese military is just going to run over Nancy Pelosi with a tank, you know, completely destroy her. I mean, that would be good preparation for the midterms, but still, thi thi thi thi thi thi thi to still, thi, thi, thi, thi, to thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thrfi, thi, thi, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, thi, thi, thi, the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the, the the, the the the the, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, and thi, you know, completely destroy her. I mean, that would be good preparation for the midterms, but still, I don't know why she would go there. And I know what you're thinking right now,

I know what you're thinking, like, why is Nancy Pelosi trying to provoke a war, huh? Did she buy stock in bomb shelters last week? Hey, show some respect. Those other thiikes. No, the truth is Nancy Pelosi has been a big champion of Taiwanese independence for decades now. That's a thing. But this still is a big headache for Joe Biden.

All right, between inflation, Ukraine, gas prices, and the midterms, the man does not have time to get into a war with China. I mean, that's probably the reason COVID left him so quickly. The virus was like, my man, you're dealing with a bunch of shit right now. I'm a bounce. But I'll be back in a few weeks. I can do that now. You've got to handle yourself. You know what Nancy's doing here? Because the administration is like, don't do it Nancy. Nancy. I'm like, I'm going anyway. She's doing that classic thing where like drunk white women get into a fight on behalf of their men, you know that thing, where they just like, you know what, we're not gonna take this, my boyfriend's gonna kick your ass and the boyfriend's like, no Nancy, Nancy, Nancy,

this is China, it's like, I don't care, yeah my boyfriend knows karate is like, God damn it's just get in the car! Get in the car Nancy! No one wants a world war. Oh and speaking, than, than, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, than, like, like, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, no, no, Nancy, no, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, Nancy, no, Nancy, no, no, no, no th, no th, no th, no th, no th, no th, no than, no than, no than, no than, no than, no than, no one than, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, than, Nancy, Nancy, no, Nancy, no, and speaking of a potential world war, we should definitely talk about the battle that's brewing over Instagram. You know, the best app to see which of your high school friends are involved in pyramid schemes. If you've been on Instagram lately, you may have noticed that it, um, it sucks, right? Everything is an ad, and your feed is full of people you don't follow, which is so confusing. Yeah, because I'm scrolling, I start reading someone's post, I'm like, do I know this person?

Was I supposed to be at this wedding? And then you look and it says, because you follow your friend, we thought you might like a post from a stranger. No, I don't. Like, it's a cute dress. Anyway, everyone's a cute dress. Anyway, everyone, everyone's been complaining about Instagram, right? Everyone's been complaining. But they haven't been forced to respond until now, because the royal family of Instagram has stepped into the fray.

Instagram is defending itself after users started complaining about changes to the social media platform. It all started Monday when Kylie Jenner and Kim Kardashian posted messages on Instagram saying make Instagram Instagram again. Stop trying to be Tick-Tock. Users appeared to have agreed slamming Instagram for pushing more video content rather than pictures. CEO Adam Moseri responded on Twitter saying the changes are designed to improve the user experience.

I do believe that more and more of Instagram is going to become video over time. We see this even if we change nothing. Moseri said the changes will help people discover new content, but he said users can turn off recommendations for one month if they don't like what's in their feed. Yeah that's right people you thought Instagram was for pictures of your friends. Well that's over. Yeah you were always bitching about brunch picks now you're gonna be begging to see them. Be like please was it eggs was it avocado toast I just want to know what my friends were eating too bad! You ain't never going to see your friends again.

And it really sucks, man. It sucks because we choose who to follow for a reason. Now they're just going to switch it on us. You can't do that? You know? Like the 12 disciples were followers of Jesus. Right? They chose Jesus. Can you imagine if one day someone was just like, today's sermon will be delivered by Jarul?

And be like, no wait, wait, I wanted to hear from Jesus. Like, no, no, trust us, this will be better. Take it away, Jaru. Now shall always be there when thou calls. Thou shalt always be on time and gave you my laws. Even worse, it seems like Instagram wants to get into the algorithm game. And that's what I'm worried about because it's going to change everything. Because you see, the thing is algorithms, they are only about engagement. They only feed you things that make you angry, make you sad, make you horny. And the problem with that is that it all happens within a few posts, so it's an emotional

roller coaster. You know, it's just like, oh, I'm so mad about this random racist event, and I'm sad about all the poverty, and God damn, that ass voted for Trump. Ah! All right, that's it for today's headlines. Let's move on to something that everyone loves. It's time to check in on today's lotto numbers with Ducey Sloan, everybody! Great to see you, Bill Slea. Great to see you, Bill Cain.

How are you doing today? How are you doing? What's happening in the lottery? I'm very confused as to why I'm doing this lotto. What? What do you mean? There's a billion dollar lotto that somebody's gonna win. Why am I doing this regular ass lotto? Like, you never told me why I'm doing? Like, what do you win in this rinky-dink-ass lotto? I come in here every couple of weeks, read some American numbers, and then go to hell on about my business.

What am I even here for? Well, the reason you hear is because I'm trying to do like a... Winning a billion dollars. Winn'in' a billion dollars. that's the kind of money that can ruin your life. Do you imagine a regular person just going into a 7-Eleven to get a hot pocket that's gonna be hot on the outside or cold on the inside? They already don't make good choices and then they walk out a billionaire?

Do you want hot pocket Kenny to be a billionaire? No you don't. The best thing they can do is to just give a hundred people $10 million. Yeah, that's like, I mean, that's that. But why? Why? Because that's like NFL money? You see what I'm saying? You buy your mama house, you pay your homeboys rent for a year, and you're done. That's all you gotta do. Because just walking into a 7-Eleven and winning a billion dollars is disrespectful to billionaires.

Okay? We know what Oprah went through. To become a billionaire, she hasn't had bread in years. Paisos worked off the back and bladders of his employees. Paisos worked off the back and bladders of his employees. To get to be a billionaire and send a dick to space. And I'm just supposed to respect somebody who walked into a 7-Eleven, burn their mouth and a stale taquito and now has more money than the gross national

product of most countries? Now the disrespect! Because that man's not going to do classy billionaire shit like put a boat in a boat in a boat. No, he's gonna... He's gonna... That's classy billionaire shit! You ain't seen a picture? And a man parking a boat in his yacht?

So, okay, so what are they going to do? You know what he's gonna do. He's to put to put to put to put to put to put to put to put to put to put to put to put to do? You know what he's going to do. He's going to put a trailer and a trailer. The rich don't need this. The Illuminati don't need this? The Illuminati don't need broke dick showing up to their Illuminati sex party? Okay, Duce, please just just read my law total numbers, please. 11.

Listen. You know, I'm glad Biden's not sick anymore. 22. But what I want to know is what happened to the good old days when your president was sick and they didn't tell you? Didn't we have a president with polio? Do you know which one it was? Exactly! 48. You're not supposed to know that a president has a debilitating disease.

We are the most powerful country in the world. Everybody hates us and we have all the guns, right? So if the man with the nuclear codes has his wife rubbing Vic's vapor rub on his chest? We're not supposed to know that. Two and seven. Okay, don't say, wait, wait, where are you getting these numbers from? Trevor, where are we getting the money from for this lotto? Don't ask questions if you don't want to answer questions.

Now Trevor, shouldn't you be saying thank you Dulce-Sloan? Thank you Dulce-Sloan. Don't go away because when we come back, Roddy Chang is going to harder Idaho. Does he come back? We'll find out up for the break. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, good too, takes to thear. Finding great candidates to hire can be like trying to find a needle in a haystack. You might get a lot of resumes, but not enough candidates with the right skills or experience.

But not with Zip Recruiter. Zip Recruit finds amazing candidates for you fast. And right now you can try it for free at Ziprecruiter.com. Zip Recruiters smart technology identifies top talent for your roles quickly. Immediately after you post your job, Zip Recruiters' powerful matching technology starts showing you qualified people for it. And you can use Zip Recruiters' pre-written invite to apply message to personally reach out to your favorite candidates and encourage them to apply sooner. Ditch the other hiring sites and let Zip Recruiter find what you're looking for, the needle in the haystack. Four out of five employers who post

on Zip Recruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Try it for free at this exclusive web address, zip recruiter.com slash zip. Zip Recruiter. The smartest way to hire. It's been said that nice guys finish last. But is that really true? I'm Tim Harford, host of The Cautionary Tales podcast, and I'm exploring that very question. Join me for my new miniseries on the Art of Fairness.

We'll travel from New York to Tahiti to India on a quest to learn how to succeed without being a jerk. We'll examine stories of villains undone by their villainy and monstrous self-deviring egos, and we'll delve into the extraordinary power of decency. We'll face mutiny on the vast Pacific Ocean, blaze a trail with a pioneering skyscraper, and dare to confront a formidable empire. The art of fairness on cautionary tales.

Listen on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Welcome back to the day show. We all know that America is divided into red states and blue states. But what happens when there's a red and blue states? But what happens when there's a red and blue division inside a state? Well, Ronnie Chang went to find out. America is becoming more and more politically divided every day. But I found the answer to this division, right here in the heart of... Wait, where the hell are we again?

Deep in Eastern Oregon, one patriot has come up with an ingenious plan to fix his state's political gridlock. My name is Mike Carter. I'm the president of Move Oregon's border, citizens for greater Idaho. Okay, so what is Move Oregon's border? We want to adjust the border taking Eastern Oregon shifting to Idaho to help maintain the conservative values that Idaho has over there. You're like the first guy I've ever met who wants to go to Idaho. For decades, Oregon has been a blue state, with most of his population concentrated around Portland in northwest,

but the conservative eastern counties of Oregon are sick of this liberal world barista bullshit and they're ready to GTFOO. Get the f-f-hut of Oregon and become part of Greater Idaho. There was just one thing that didn't make sense to me. Okay, this might sound crazy, but why don't you just move to Idaho? By moving the border, we're changing who governs this might sound crazy, but why don't you just move to Idaho? By moving the border, we're changing who governs us, without having to pull up our stakes. You want the Idaho without having to be in Idaho? Absolutely. It's ingenious.

I want a better government over me. But yet not have to live in Idaho? No, not have to live in Idaho, not have to move. I can stay where I live right now. Exactly, where it's great. Yes. And it's not Idaho. Right. And as crazy as this idea might sound,

this movement has momentum. Nine Oregon counties have already passed ballot measures to explore joining Idaho, with two more voting in November. So what exactly do these people hate about their neighbors in the Northwest? It's pretty much the same stuff all Fox News viewers hear about whatever city they live next to. I grew up around Portland. You used to be able to walk streets and stuff. Now you get shot. Racial riots just a reason to write. Break in free TVs, you know. They voted in for the more marijuana plants.

Now they're going to put in the mushroom plants. I hear you, but... Idaho? It's not moving to Idaho. Yeah, it's not moving to Idaho. Yeah, no, of course. Like, you don't want to move to Idaho. That would be crazy. You want to bring Idaho? Yes. These cultural differences are tearing Oregon apart,

but not everyone thinks divorce is the answer. Constitutional law scholar Norman Williams. This is not going to happen. Moving a state border, even five or 10 yards, is tremendously difficult. South Carolina and North Carolina did this just in 2017. Okay, well, it's been done before, just doing more. If you look at the statutes that both states had to do, to just deal with 19 homes being moved, you move the Oregon-Ida-Hidaho border by 300, 400 miles, the complexity of that is

just overwhelming. Man, you would have been such a bummer on the Oregon Trail. You would have been the guy who's like, what about Typhoid? What about Deferia? What about the cost of oxen? Cock the wagon or get the f-feeh out? Turns out, there's a ton of obstacles on the trail out of Oregon. Liabilities, state debt, pension obligations, and a long list of incompatible laws, especially recreational marijuana, legal in Oregon, not in Idaho.

But luckily, Mike has those answers. I don't have those answers. And I shouldn't answer those questions because I'm not in the decision process. They're just the ideas guy. It's like walking into your house and going, hey, let's get a divorce. Or let's sit down and talk about it. Let's put it into the legislators' hands, because they're the decision makers. So leave it to these politicians, they're the same politicians you want to secede from. Just let those guys handle this.

Yeah. But will this idea even make it to the State House? Nick picky Norman says, no, thia, thia, thia, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thoom. thi, thi, thi, thoomomomomomorrow, to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, thoom. tho, tho, tho, thoom. tho, tho, tho, tho, thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom. to the Statehouse? Knit-picky Norman says, no way. The people aren't going to vote for it once they know the costs. What cost? Idaho's going to have to pay Oregon for the value of all the land and buildings that the state of Oregon owns in Eastern Oregon. I've been there. It looks virtually worthless.

A very conservative estimate of the cost would be somewhere between 10 and 15 billion dollars. Oh what, you think Idaho's not good for it? Do you know how many potatoes these guys sell? A lot. Still, he had a point. Eastern Oregon wasn't just trying to divorce Portland. They also wanted to marry Idaho. Was Idaho ready for that level of commitment? I headed for downtown, uh downtown Idaho to find out. I think they're welcome. I don't see why no. I mean, Eastern Oregon is pretty much just like Idaho anyway.

Welcome, they have open arms? Just wait until they hear about the price tag. How much would you personally pay for Eastern Oregon to join Idaho? Well, I wouldn't want to pay anything. Well, yeah, but I mean, Idaho would would have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to, but I mean you know, Idaho would have to buy Oregon state assets to move it over. It's not just as simple as, you know. Yeah, oh I don't know. Ten million? Probably going to be closer to ten billion. Then that's a hard note. This is what Idaho will get. A seaport, maybe. A hundred thousand angry gun-toed and conservatives.

Sweet. And a ton of empty desolate land. I mean, Idaho's already got however many angry gun-owning truck driving people. So I think we're about capped on that. Would you guys be okay with having to drive an extra six hours for legal weed? Ooh, sorry, I said six hours, but really it's six hours there and they're six hours back. So that's what's wrong about. True.

Yeah, no, that doesn't sound good. I mean, at that point, you might as well drive to Mexico and get some fresh cocaine. Even if you paid us, we would let you come in. Even if Eastern Oregon paid you to join Idaho, you'd be like, no. you're telling Eastern Oregon, Eastern Oregon Eastern Oregon the Eastern Oregon is the Eastern Oregon is to to the Eastern Oregon is to to to the Eastern Oregon is to to forgorgorgorgorgon Oregon. to forgon, I to forgon, I to forea. to f. I to f. I to f. I to to to that. that. that. that. that. that. that. that. that. that. that. that. that. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. that. I. that. I. that. I. I. I. I. I. I. I. I. I. I. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that. I that that that that that that that that that that that that that off and not tell us what to tea off, yes. With a heavy heart, I drove the six hours back to Mike to give him the bad news. Okay, look, so Idaho said no. But let me just pitch you some other states here to join. Okay? Washington.

Not as conservative as Idaho, so that's a no. Okay, what about California? That's a definite no. Okay, how about Nevada? Northern Nevada would like to be part of Idaho. No, would you like to join Nevada as it is right now? No. Look, Goldie Lox, I'm trying to help you here. Okay?

Successionists can't be choosers. Yes, we can. Who knows? Maybe someday, Idaho is the biggest state in the Union. Why can't of Oregon, part of Kentucky, part of Iowa, what about coming together even though we don't share a common border? Why can't we just become the state of Idaho? Maybe Mike has a point.

Can't we all just declare which state we want to be a part of, regardless of which state we actually living be a part of, regardless of which state we actually live in? Forget gerrymandering and redistricting. Let us figure it out ourselves. By the power invested in me, by fucking nobody, I hereby declare you a man in Idaho. No one's going to check if this is real. It's kind of like vaccine cards.

Thank you so much for that Ronnie Chang. All right, stay tuned, because when we come back, we'll be chatting to an author who believes American needs more policing, so don't go away. Finding great candidates to hire. Finding great candidates to hire can be like trying to find a needle in a haystack. You might get a lot of resumes, but not enough candidates with the right skills or experience. But not with Zip Recruiter. Zip Recruiter finds amazing candidates for you fast. And right now you can try it for free at Zip Recruiter.

Zip Recruiter's smart technology identifies top talent for your roles quickly. Immediately after you post your job, Zip Recruiters powerful matching technology starts showing you qualified people for it, and you can use Zip Recruiter's pre-written invite to apply message to personally reach out to your favorite candidates and encourage them to apply sooner. Ditch the other hiring sites and let Zip Recruiter find what you're looking for, the needle in the haystack. Four out of five employers who post on zip to to to to to to to the to to the to to to the to the to to the to the to the the to to the the the to the the the to to to the the, to to to to to to the the, to the the the to to to to, the the the to the to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the t. t. t. t. t. t. t. t. t. tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tape, tip. tip tip tip tip tip tip. tip. tip. the needle in the haystack. Four out of five employers who post on Zip Recruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Try it for free at this exclusive web address, Zip Recruiter.com slash zip. Again, that's Zip Recruiter. The smartest way to hire. It's been said that nice guys finish last. But is that really true? I'm Tim Harford, host of The Cautionary Tales

podcast, and I'm exploring that very question. Join me for my new miniseries on the Art of Fairness. We'll travel from New York to Tahiti to India on a quest to learn how to succeed without being a jerk. We'll examine stories of villains undone by their villainy and monstrous self-devaring egos and we'll delve into the extraordinary power of decency. We'll face mutiny on the vast Pacific Ocean, blaze a trail with a pioneering skyscraper and dare to confront a formidable empire. The art of fairness on cautionary tales.

Listen on the IHart Radio App, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to the Daily Show. My guest tonight is Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow, Rafael Mangual. He heads research for the Institute's Policing and Public Safety Initiative, and he's written a new book called Criminal Injustice, what the push for decarceration and depolicing gets wrong and who it hurts the most. So please welcome, Raphael Manguel. Thank you so much for having me. Welcome.

Welcome. Welcome. Raffail, welcome to the show. Thank you so much. this is a real honor and very exciting. Oh yeah, this is a great. I'm glad to have you here because you've written a really interesting book that in many ways argues, you know, decarceration and depolicing is leading America down the wrong path. So I'd love to

know just off the bet, what do you think people who want to defund the police and reallocate the resources or reduce incarceration. What do you think they're getting wrong? Well, I think they're getting a couple of things wrong. One is that I think they misunderstand what the causes of crime are, right? The defund movement is kind of built around this idea that if we just divert this funding away from policing and incarceration and prosecution and give it to other community programs that we can't th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thin, thi, thi, thin, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, th.. thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin. thin. thin. thiii. thiiiiiiii. thi. thi assumes that the causes of crime, the root causes of crime, so to speak, are socioeconomic in nature. I don't think they are.

I know it's counter to the sort of conventional wisdom. But if you look at New York City, for example, where we all are, one of the safest cities, in America. In 1989, our poverty rate rate was actually sladylite, thiiiiiiiiiii, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. the, the, th. the, the, the, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is. I. I. I. I. I. I. I. I. the the the the the th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. the. the the toe. the toe. the too. toe. toe. toe. toe. toe. toe. toe. toe. Why do I pick those two years? Because those are the years that preceded the peak number of murders of 2,262 in 1990 and the Valley number of murders, 292 in 2017. So we were able to get crime drastically down without doing anything about poverty.

We don't see violence sort of track with other socioeconomic problems, unemployment, et cetera. So that, I think, is a the years the years the years the years they they they they they they they they they they they they they they they they they they they thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi think think think think thi thi thi thi thi thi thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thin..... thin. thin. theeeeeeeeeeateeateeeat, theeeeat, thee socioeconomic problems, unemployment, etc. So that I think is a major pillar of what they get wrong. The other thing is, frankly, I think they misunderstand what the research says about police, which is that more policing means less crime and the people who benefit are the people who are dealing with the biggest crime problems. And that's really who I wrote the book for. Well let's jump into that because, you know, you are, you, you are, you are, you are, you are, thapap is something that, you know, even your critics don't detract from you.

They say you are a data person. And many of the statements you make in the book are supported by data or you argue based on the data that you've received. But there are few things that I find confusing. The one that you just said is more policing equals less crime. But in America you see policing increase. By your argument, why is it that any number would go up from one previous year when the policing has only increased from year to year? How do you explain that?

So, you know, there are a lot of reasons for why that. So one is that the effectiveness of police has a lot to do with other things that are going to go on in the criminal justice system, right? So when police officers make an arrest and they take a criminal off the street, the benefits associated with that arrest are going to be different if you're talking about a jurisdiction in which the prosecutor isn't going to bring charges, which we see much more often now, in which a lengthy sentence is less likely,

which we see much more often now, or in which the punishments on the tablain, ta, ta, ta, ta, ta, ta, ta, ta, ta, ta, tha, tha, the, the, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is too, is too, is too, is too, is too, is to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to their, is their, is their, is to their, is to to be to be to be to be to be to be to be to be to bea, is too, is too, is too, is............ too, is. too, is a. too, is a. the the too, is a the the the too, the the too, the too, too, the too, the too, is a too, is a too, is a the the too, isanananan. to incapacitate the individuals and take them off the street. So in a lot of cities, despite this fact that spending on police has remained steady or even gone up, we have seen crime go up. But the reasons for that is not because policing is ineffective. Every single econometric analysis that's worth it saltzolk that's actually looked at the impact of policing on crime finds that youthose benefits are sort of disproportionately enjoyed by low-income minority communities which is a really important point because again that's who I wrote this book for. That's it's interesting that you say that because you know you you talk in the book about mass incarceration you talk in the book about things like stop and frisk you even

talk about victimization what I find confusing in the book is you'll to the pro stop and frisk you know and from from from the gather in the book, you're pro-stop and frisk, right? I would say, or you're not against it, maybe? I'm not against. Okay, you're not against. It's a tool that should be on the table. Okay, so now, now what's confusing in the book is you make an argument that seems like you are blaming the people who are being disproportionately stopped and frisked for they they they they they thine. You know, there's a part in the book where you say, and I'll paraphrase, you don't get me wrong, as you say, it's because they act street or they look criminal and so the police stop them when they shouldn't stop them. So, my question to use this, like, what is acting street or acting criminal and who gets to define that?

So, you know, there's the chapter you're talking that, that on false positives, right? The false positive is the kind of situation in which a cop stops somebody based on suspicion and it turns out that that person doesn't have any contract. The chapter is based on a really important sociological work by a kind of left-of-center sociologist named Elijah Anderson called Cote of the and it's an ethnographic work that's based in North Philadelphia in the early 90s, late 80s. And what he the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter the chapter. The the chapter. The chapter. The the chapter the chapter the chapter. The the chapter is the chapter is that's. The chapter is that's. The chapter is that's. The chapter is that's. The chapter is that's. that's. that's that's that's that's that's that's that's that's that's that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, that's, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th. The th. The the, thea. thea. thea. thea. thea. thea. thea. thea. thea. thea. the. the. 80s. And what he finds is that there is a kind of street culture of where people adopt an outward facing posture that's been well documented in research across the years where you kind of, you know, one example I give the book, actually is from my personal life.

I didn't always look like this. I didn't always dress like this. When I was a kid, I had, you know, corn rolls and I had that kind kind kind kind kind kind kind kind kind kind kind kind kind and I tell the story about one day being in the mall in Long Island walking down the corridor we all kind of got our thug walks going on and we walked past a group of white kids and they kind of diverted their eyes and we all got off on it we all thought it was like hey we're these tough guys and you know we got a sense that this was something good. A th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, thin, the, the, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, thr-I. thrownee. throwne, throwne, throwne, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, th But a few days later, I was in my local deli and got online behind a white woman who kind of noticed me behind her and turned around and very discreetly clutched her purse. And I remember feeling offended saying like, you know, what's this lady's problem?

I've never thought about robbing anyone a day in my life. And what I realized in that moment was that she was picking up on the very same signals that we were perfectly happy for those other kids to pick up...... And th. And th. And I. And I. And I. And I. And I. And I, and I, and I, and I, and I, and I, and I, and I, and I, and I, and I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I'm, I thi, I'm th. And I'm, I'm th. And I'm, and I'm th. And I'm, and I'm, I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I the th. And I, I, I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I th. And I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I remember, I'm th. And I remember, I'm the the the the th. And what Elijah argues... Yeah, but before you go further on this, so the issue I have with this argument is, in many ways it sounds like what you are saying is that the way of being is what people should change because the way of being is what determines whether you are perceived as a criminal or not, right? But like, listen to what you just said, you just said, I had the cornrows and all kinds, I was in the thugging, what does cornrows have to do with being a criminal or not? Like this is the problem in America. Absolutely.

Right. No, no, it's really. I'm just saying, what I'm just saying, what I'm just the try to to do as people of color, it's just be a little more, the the their, their, their, their, their, their, tho, tho, tho, thin, thin, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what does, what does, what does, what, what, what, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what, what, what does, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what, what......................... to. to. to. to. to. to. to. to. to. to. to. to. the, what, what, what, what, what, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what does, what, what does. the. the. the. the. the. even saying that. It's almost like you're implicitly saying what we need to do as people of color is just be a little more white. Just be a little, let's get a little, no, no, no, no, you're saying a little less of the baggie, the walk and the talk and the talk, let's be a little, because that woman who clutched her purse, that's her clutching her purse. Exactly. Right. that. that. that, in. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. to. th. th. to. th. to. th. th. th. th. th. to. th. to. th. th. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No blame people for these things. Right. So now these interactions are incredibly embarrassing, infuriating, they shouldn't happen. And so it's not an excuse for bad policing. What it is, it's an explanation for why some of these mistakes may be happening. One that's understanding. Wait, wait, wait, here's the thing. Here's the thing. I understand that you say it's a mistake, but at the same time, you say that it is not a mistake

because the person is making an active decision. It doesn't seem like a mistake. It seems like an act of discrimination. And so let's think of it like this, using a stupid analogy, right? You have police, and you spoil all of their days, right? But isn't that then a sign that the police need to be reformed? Because they are the people who are making this decision incorrectly, right? If we had a bunch of pilots, if we had a bunch of pilots who crash all the time, right? it's like, oh, why do they crash? Oh, they can't tell the difference between mountains and the runway. We wouldn't say, like, well, the mountains have got to change how they look

because they look like the runway. We'll be like, the pilots need to learn how to be better pilots. Wouldn't you say that? Yeah, absolutely. The chapter, it's a the chapter, to, to, to, to be,'s going on in a way that I think lowers the temperature of our rhetorical debate because evidence of false positives is taken to be prima facie evidence of racial bias on the part of the police officer. But you're saying it's not?

Not necessarily. What they may be picking up on are outward facing postures that have been associated with violence? But what are the posture? What po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po po. But what? Not. But what? that. that is. that is. that is. that is. that is. that is. that is that is that is that is that is that is. that is. that is that is. that is. that is. that is. that is. that is. that is. that is, but is, but is that is that is that is that is th. But, but is th. But, but is th. But, but is th, but is th. But, but, but, but, but, but, but the po. the po. the po. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. they associated with? The same ones that I quote Nipsey Hussle talking about in that very same chapter where he says, when I was in a gang and we were going out looking for an op, we weren't looking for somebody who was dressed square. We were looking for someone who looked like us, who walked like us, who had the attitude, and it was wrong in that context. But do you hear what he said as well? Us. There is a key element that is missing here, and you're neglecting the fact that people are able to understand within their communities

who the us is and who the us isn't. Black people can walk through a community, see a bunch of black people and go like, oh, that person, I know they might be shifty or not, but it's not because Nipsey Hustle says us. What you're talking about is a police going them, they are criminals, they are all suspicious, because they are not the us. I don't think so. I don't think that's how I put it. The other point I'd make too is that in a lot of cities, the majority of police officers, like

in New York are not white. So these are people who live in ththey understand these points. I understand that. I understand these distinctions too. But I think there we get into a different issue which is about you know how are police incentivized to make that and that's separate. You're not arguing that so let's not get into that. How are they incentivized to make the money? Let's talk a little bit more. Let's talk about the dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec dec. that. that. that the the dec. th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, the, the decar, their, the their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, th, th, th, th, th, the, the, the, the, the, the, the. the. the. the. the. the. they they the, they they they goes down, people argue that the police should get paid more.

Makes sense. When crime goes up, people say, well, the police should get paid more. It seems like policing is one of the few jobs or areas where whether the outcomes are good or bad, more funding should go. And Joe Biden just announced that they're going to be pouring money into getting more and more and more police onto the streets. and my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my. And my th. And my th. And my th. And my th. And the, thiiiiiiiii's, toe, toe, toe, toe's, toe's, thi's, toea, toea, to me, to me, to me, to me me, to be to be to be to be their, their, their, their, the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the th. And, th. And, th. And, th. And, thii. And, thi. And, thi. And, thi. And, thi. And, thi. And, thi. And, their thi. And, toea.c, toea. And, toea.c. And, toea. And, toea. And, toea. And, the the the the and more police onto the streets. And my only question to you is as a data person, what data is there to support that? That then, like, growing the police force more, putting more money into it is actually giving us the result that we're looking for.

The trove of studies showing that when you increase police presence, you reduce crime and that you do so disproportionately in the neighborhoods with the biggest crime problems, right? So there have been studies, for example, you know, random analyses that look at, they looked at policing presence along the National Mall in DC shortly after 9-11, right? What this study did was it looked at when the terror alert level changed, right? That was kind of a random thing that happened that you couldn't predict, the police presence would change. When the police presence increased, they found massive decreases in crime along the National Mall, which is where the presence increased. Every single study of policing that's been, you know, there was a study out of UPenned that, there's a study out of UPenned, that looked at expanding patrols of private police forces from the University of Pennsylvania

Police Department outside the campus, and they found that when. So every time that this analysis is done, it shows the same thing. Now we can argue about whether the cost associated with policing are worth the benefits, but one thing we know is that we haven't yet really figured out a way to produce the same kind of crime declines that policing has produced, particularly in the communities in which it's produced it. And I think that's a really, really important point because when we argue about defunding the police, we're not arguing about ourselves, right? I live in a really good neighborhood, I'm sure you do, too. We're arguing about people who have a very, very different day-to-day life. And one thing that's important to understand is that crime is very concentrated.

It's not something that's equally distributed across the country. In New York city, about 5% of their percent, to, to, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, toe, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, to to to to to to to to to people people people people people people people people people people people, to people, to people, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, their, too, too, too, too, their, too, too, too, too, their, too, for which we have data, going back to at least 2008, a minimum, a minimum, a minimum of 95% of all shooting victims in the city are either black or Hispanic, almost all of the male, right? That's one of the starkest, most persistent racial disparities in the data data. We don't talk enough about it, and we don't talk enough about what it means to get crime down for those communities that are really dealing with it on a day-day basis. I respectfully think we do talk about it. Those communities talk about it all the time. The people who have involved in these shootings talked about it all the time. Oftentimes it just doesn't become a conversation and mainstream media unless it's a country. But if you ask them what they want to be fair to black Americans, they don't, they don't, they don't, they don't, they want, they want, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, to, to, to say, to say, to say, to say, to say, to say, to say, to say, to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk, to talk. to talk, to talk. to talk. to talk. to talk, to talk, to talk. to talk. to talk, to, their. their. their. too, their. their. too, their. tho. thooooooo. too. too. too. too. too. too, too, too, tha. Those, too, tha. told Gallup last year that they want as much if not more policing that they're currently getting. But I think if you're going to be fair to black

Americans what they're also looking for is equal policing. They want the protecting and the serving parts as well, right? Absolutely. So here's here's where I find an issue with the data. I would not disagree with you. Having a police presence probably th ensure that there is no crime, because all you're doing is saying, like, when a policeman is there, there is no crime, there is no crime, however, as soon as the policeman moves,

the crime might come back, and then you're like, well, then we need more police, at the end of the today, and the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the end of the the the the end of the end of the the end of the fact that crime comes from somewhere. And you talk about this in the book, right? You talk about this in the book. You say that, according to the data you've seen, you don't believe that crime is caused by poverty. You don't believe that crime is caused by a lot of things. You, in fact, believe that crime is caused by trauma.

That crime is th what is happening in these communities. It's a vicious cycle. My question to you then is, if you believe those things, and in the same book you talk about kids or just members of communities who are traumatized by these police, is it not then true that the police themselves are causing more of the crime because they're traumatizing the very communities they're supposed to be policing. When they actually traumatize these communities, absolutely. The questions is how often does that happen, particularly compared to the sort of trauma that's associated with serious crime and witnessing that crime and being abused as a child and being violently victimized. Right? The argument is not the policing is perfect, right? If you're looking for someone to sit here and say, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, right, th, th, th, th, th, thi, th, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, the, thi, the, the, the, the, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, they, the the the thi, the thi, to sit here and say that there's no way that we can reform the criminal justice system that there's no room for improvement it's not me right the reality is that yeah these are human

endeavors any human endeavor is going to be imperfect people are going to make mistakes people are going to be malevolent they're gonna be evil they're gonna exercise the powers that they're given and 't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater because when we do that can real people suffer real harm. And it's hard for I think a lot of people to just internalize what that's like, right? I mean, you know, every year for the last few years the national homicide rate is kind of hovered around five or six per 100,000. There are neighborhoods on the west side of Chicago, where the homicide rate is 131. And th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, th, tho, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, th, th, th, th, I I I, I, I I th, I I I I I, I I, I I I I, I I I I I th, I I I I I I I I I th, I I I th, I I I th, I th, I thi, I thi, I thi, I thi, I thi, I thi, and I'm thr, and I'm thrown, and I'm to to tooooooooooooooooo.ee, thoooo.e, and I think, the, and I the, West Garfield Park, for example, where the homicide reads 131 per 100,000. And so here's the thing that I find interesting in America. People will often argue about policing in those neighborhoods.

People don't seem to talk enough about over-policing and under-policing. You know, your dad was a police officer, right? And one thing I think everyone knows, you know, whether you are on the police force or whether you are a person who is in a community experiencing high crime is that particularly in America. The overpolicing and the underpolicing give you a strange world where they present you a world where you don't know which is better for you. People often call the police, the police don't show up or they show up many hours after the incident has taken place. Or when the police do show up, they show up to terrorize the very communities that needed them for something else and now don't need them but then now treat them as the criminals, right? And so what I find interesting in this conversation, people always bring up, oh Chicago and they bring up these, and these places, they bring up the the these places, these places, these places, these places, these places, the the the the the the the the the the the the places, the the places, the the the the places, the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the theyseysyskases, the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their theories,augreeskoooesaresoeslareskaresoeses, their their their their their the much the government puts into these places, the parks that are in

these places, the schools that are in these places, the aftercare programs that are in these places, the money that is put into these places. Do you get I'm saying, people always make it seem like, oh, the Hamptons has no crime, probably because of the money go? And I think sometimes there's a strange, I'm not saying you're wrong, by the way, I'm just saying, do you consider that correlation as well? Absolutely, and in the book, I go through some of the data, you know, out of cities like Chicago, where you saw massive increases,

for example, in per people, for example, in per people, the pereepea to 2014 and 2016% people, the year year year, their, their, to to to to to to to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, their, to, to, to, to, to, to, to, to to to to to to to the their, to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to, to to to to to to to to to to to to to, to to to to to to, to to, to, to to to, to to, to to to to to to to to to, to to to bea, to bea, too, too, the the the the pupil to about 30% over the national average per pupil. Between 2014 and 2016, Chicago murders, am I not? They didn't go down. Yeah, but you see, look at that time period. What is the time period? What is the time period?

What is the time period? Yeah, but I'll give you an analogy. When we look at the socke tienuchawk. to building, to building, to, to, to, to, to, to, their, to, their, to, to, their, to, their, to, to, their, their, too, their, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, their, their, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in, in their, in their, their their too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, too, their, too, their, their, the, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, toos.s. their. too. too. too. too. tooomorrow, too, toam, do you know when you have to start? When they're children? And do you know when you look at the success is when they're old enough to play in the national team? And that's literally what we do. We go, okay, we want to win the World Cup in? You don't go, I want to win the next World Cup. It's impossible. You go, we're going to start a program, we, we, we, we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll, to their, to to their, to to their, to their, their, to to their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their old, their old, their old, their, their old, their their their their they're they're they're they're they're they're they're they're they're they're their, is, is their, is their, is their, is their, is their, is their, is their their their, their their, their their their their old, their old, their old, their old, their old, their old, their old, their old, their old, old, old, old, old, old, old, old, old, old, old, old enough.a, their old, old, their old enough.a, their old old enough.a, their in America is, every program that comes in, people go, oh, we raised, we got schools two years ago, and look, crimes went up. However, they don't use that same argument for police.

We gave police money two years ago. People like, we've got to give more, no, you know, and you're not. I don't even paint you. No, please, I'm not saying you are. What I'm saying is that the relationship between these kinds of factors and violent crime is not consistent. It's not clear. What we do know is that we can reduce violent crime

by taking violent criminals off the street. I mean, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I'm frankly, I'm frankly, I'm frankly, I'm frankly, I'm tha, I'm thank, I'm thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi, I'm th thi, I'm thi, I'm thi, I'm thi, I'm thi, I'm thi, I th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. thi. thi. thi. thi. th th th thi. th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th of reading stories of really heinous crimes, homicides. I write in the book about a woman murdered in Chicago in 2019 by a guy who had nine prior felony convictions, one for a second degree murder. What was he doing out on the street? I'm tired of reading stories about people raped, Robbbed, people have 15, 20 prior arrest. But be fair. You're a data guy. And now you're using anecdotal stories. No, no, no, no, no, no. I can tell you that in Chicago, the average homicide suspect

has 12 prior arrest. 20% have more than 20 prior arrests. But, OK, so now, again, I'm not saying any of this is wrong. What I'm arguing is, your, your, the thesis of the book is, the thesis, is, is, is, is, is, is, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, is, is, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, th.......... the, th. th. the, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, the. the. the. the. the. the. toe. toe. toe. toe. toe. to. to. the. the. the. the. the. the. the the thesis of the book, right? Not necessarily. I think the thesis of the book is more so that the calls to radically defund police and radically reduce incarceration are wrong. So you're not for the, okay, so you're not, for the, okay, so you're not for the, okay, so you're not, so you're not, you're an, yeah. Okay, so you also have both, we have an under-incarceration problem, we also have an over-incarceration. Okay, so now let me ask you this question. Again, this is what I just go to is, oftentimes I find America is intent on solving the symptom but not the cause, okay? Let's talk about incarceration. Let's talk about incarceration. Yeah, yeah. I don't understand this. And I don't see th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th th thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this what I this what I this what I this what I this what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I this is what I th th th th th th th th th th th thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi this is what I this is what I this is what about this in the book. America is a country where people say you serve the time, right? It implies that you pay the price for what you have done. However, once you

have paid that price, you are not a functioning member of society. You are not allowed to to be a functioning member of society. And then people are surprised when those members now go into a certain society that we don't want them to be into. Oh, it's the recidivism rate. The people are going back to prison, they're getting back into crime. But crime is an industry that accepts them regardless of what they've done, ironically. And the world, they don't see prison as punishment. They look at it as rehabilitation. They go, we're going to take you off the streets, so I agree with you on this. Same thing we've been doing. Before police we've even invented, in African

villages we'd go, you are going to be taken away from the situation you've created. However, the purpose is rehabilitation. We're either going to make to make their their their their their their their their their their their to make to make their to make their to make to make their to make their to make their their to make to make their to make their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their their. We going their their. Wea. Wea. We're going te. Wea. We're going. We're going te. We're going. We're going. We're going going. We're going. We're going going to get to get to to to toe. Wea. We're going going to to their going then we'll work from there. But American prisoners don't change people for the better and they don't give them an opportunity to come out being a better person. Oftentimes, and then they get surprised when the people do what they only now have options to do. Yeah, oftentimes they make people worse. I mean, I am not a person who believes that should suffer. I'm not a retributivist. Right, and you don't write that. I think, to me, the main benefit of incarceration is incapacitation.

It's taking people off the street so that the communities can have room to breathe as a result of avoiding their rights. And I will say to your credit, maybe something we actually can't agree on is, you do the. run and I will say one thing I did agree with you on is if we can get a better system that's more efficient you won't have people who are stuck in the system who have done nothing wrong and shouldn't be there. Now I argue a lot of the assumptions underlying your argument is that we have figured out how to reliably rehabilitate people, particularly at scale, across a prison population of nearly 2 million people.

We haven't. We don't have the infrastructure in place to do that. And we don't really know how to do that reliably. There's some programs that show success. We don't, investments that pay off, some that don't, some programs that show success, you extend the observation period to four or five, ten years and you see a reversion back toward the mean. I am all for, by the way, reducing the barriers to reentry. I think that's a huge problem. I've written this in the past. You know, not for that.

So what you're saying, I'll even agree with you on that. I'll go, let's say we agree that the programs that we have aren't working, or you cannot guarantee that they work, you do not know if they work, you aren't certain. But. That's that's not working. It does work to incapacitate people and for how long and and to what effect? Well the question that's the question right is how long right so right so right so right so right now the median. Because at some point you realize America just to the the the the the the the theyre's the the they's notrile is. they. the the. the. the. the. No. No. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. Less. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the as a number. We go less than one. Yeah, in prisons, it's about, I don't know, 700,000 people? In prisons? In prisons versus jails, right? So you've got some people in jails and say behind dogs. So total, total incarcerated population is about 1.9 million people, I would assume around. And then how many people are getting arrested? And then, you sure? But not let people who get arrested, go arrested and go arrested and go arrested and go arrested and go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go go. And go. And go. And go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to go. to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to get to get to get to get to get the the the the the the the the the the their. the their. the the the the their. the the th. th. th. th. th. th. th. the. the. the the the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. the. to th. th. th's this narrative in our country that we systematically deny people second chances, right? We have second chance month in the United States.

The typical person who gets released from prison had more than 10 prior arrests before they entered prison their most recent time and more than five prior convictions. It's just not true that we deny people's second convictions. Only 40% of state felony. We don't deny them their typically. their convictions, their convictions, their convictions, their convictions, their, their, their, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their typical, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, typically, because you said the typical person. Sure, right. We don't deny them typically. There's certain, you can, we don't know what the number on typical is. You can dig into the data and I'm sure find anomalous situations where people have been absolutely railroaded by the system. We should identify those people and release them. a subset of our general population that should be incarcerated, that shouldn't be out on the street. And the costs associated with the failure to do that are real.

They fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable communities in America. And it takes an incredibly gut-wrenching effect on people. I saw a video on Twitter the other day of a kid running on the west side of Chicago. He just happened to be walking home from school with his backpack, which is about half the size, the was. And he's walking past a group of kids who were targeted in the drive-by. He takes off running, and you can see the bullets still following him along the wall as he runs. They thought he was with them. His only mistake was walking past the wrong kids at the wrong time. And a huge part of that problem in cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and cities, and in the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the the th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th thi, and thi, and thi, thinks, thinks, and thinks, is toe. toe. toean. toean. toean. too toean. toean. toean. toe toe toe toe toe. toe. and Louisville is the systematic failure to take people who don't belong on the street off the street. I don't want to see any more of that. I don't think

anybody wants to see more of that and I'll say two things before I let you go because I'm loving this by the way. Thank you for the conversation. The first part to that point is thrown. The. The. The. The. T, the first, the first, thi, thi, thi, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, that, their, that, to to their, that, that, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their their their tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi. the, the, the, the, their, their, their, their, their, their, that, their, their, to to their, to to their, to their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, th one in that people often talk about criminals as if there is no path to redemption and they are innately bad. When in fact, if you read through all of American history, oftentimes the people who become, the families who are respected, oftentimes people who become the lawmakers come from a history of crime. You can go back all the way to the Boston Tea Party, to the smugglers who were creating what they were, you know, smuggling the tea and they were, you know, breaking the law. You can move forward, you know, you go to the, whether it's the candies, the Rockefeller's, whatever you want it to be. One thing that I find interesting in America is, you know, it doesn't depend on the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity the opportunity, to the opportunity, to turn, the opportunity, the opportunity, to turn, to turn, the opportunity, to turn, to turn, the opportunity, to, their, their, to, to, to, the, the, the, their, their, the, the, the, the, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you're, you. the, you. the, you, you, you, you, you, you, you, you. the, you, you. the, you. the, you. the, you. the, you. the, you. the, you. the, the, the, the, the, the, you. the, you. the, you. the, you're, you're, you're, you know, you know, you know, toe. toe. toe. toe., you know, you know, toe. toe., you know, you're, you're, you know, you're, you're, you're, you The, I just want to talk about the video thing to what you're saying, because that reminded

me of a part in your book where, and please correct me if I'm wrong, it seems like you argue the videos we watch of police brutality make it seem like the situation is worse than it actually is, and you're saying it is not as bad as we think. Is that correct? Yeah, that's exactly right. I mean people think that police use force on a very, very regular basis. I think they'd be very, very surprised to learn that studies have shown, for example, the police use force in less than 1% of arrests. That police fire their weapons in less than 0. thrown. torifices. theirp. their. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. thii. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thi. thoe. People. People. People is police. People people people people people people people people people people people people people. thoe. thoe. thoe. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. People. People. People. People. th. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. People. the. People. the. the. the. the. the. the. tho. the. the. thea. thea. thea. thea. thoooooooooooe. the. People the. People the, in the country of 330 million people, that's a lot. Right. It's a big number. But as a percentage of total interactions, of total arrests, of situations in which force might be used but isn't,

it's actually a very, very rare phenomenon. And thank God that it is. Again, doesn't mean we shouldn't try to reduce it further. But it is not, most certainly not a common outcome, a likely likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a likely, a common outcome, a likely outcome of a police citizen interaction. Now I get the point that you're about to make, which is that, you know, aren't these videos like the one you just talked about, about the kid being shot at in Chicago, aren't those also creating the same kind of, you know, misconception. And it's very, very important that you understand that those videos are also backed by data. More than the third of convicted of of of of of of th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. th. And, th. And, th. And, th. And, th, th. And, th. th. their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, their, More than the third of convicted violent felons in America were convicted, where they committed they committed their crime when they were either out on parole, out on probation, or out on pretrial release.

Again, I mentioned earlier in Chicago, average number of prior arrests. the average number of prior arrests. thus, thiaughes, thi. to thrown, thi. Average topiolate, throwne, their, throwne, throwne, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, thr-a, we're, we're, we're, we're, we're, were, we're, we're, thr-a, were convicted, we're, we're, we're, tho, tho, tho, tho, we're, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, tho, thi. And, thi. And, thi. And, thr-a, thr-a. And, thr-a. And, tho. And, thr. And, tho. And, tho. And, thi. And, thr. Wea. Wea. T. T. T. thr. tha. tha. tha. tha. tha. thauuuauauaua. tha. thaua. tha. tha. tha. tha. tha. Wea. 20 prior arrests. So it's not as if these are just sort of cherry-picked antidotes. This is what's reflected in the data. I actually wasn't going to ask about that. But, no, no, genuinely I wasn't. I wasn't, but I just wanted to hear what you're going to say. No, no, no, no, no, I wasn't. I was actually going to of the conclusions you draw from the data, but I appreciate the way you've written it and that you've put thought into it and you acknowledge.

You know, you don't make it seem like people are just complaining about nothing. There's one thing that I would love, and I know we won't get to that answer now, but it's almost like a challenge to you as a data person is this. Time and time again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again again in the the the the in the United States, communities who are poor, you know, black communities, even very poor white communities, for instance, have complained about the treatment they receive at the hands of police. And one thing that we've noticed time and time again is that the information we get oftentimes doesn't match the data. And I say this, you know, body cameras.

I say that once you go into investigations, into different police departments, we often find rampant racism, you know, we find corruption, we find signs that what the communities told people were actually true. And so my question to you as a data person is, with so much of the data that we look at in the world of crime coming from the police, do you not think that there should be an external source of data on crime, on everything that goes with incarceration, that doesn't come from the people that we are actually trying to hold accountable to make sure that we're dealing with accurate data?

Sure. Absolutely. Again, you know, sort of implicit in that question is an accusation, right? Is there something wrong? I'm saying, because you're the data guy, that's what, yeah. So what we do have is victimization surveys, right? And what you would expect to see if there was, in fact, something wrong with the police data would be a serious incongruity between the police data and the data that's shown by victimization surveys. These are individuals who have the the the the thiiiiiiii, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, is, is, is, is, is something is something something something something something something something something something is something is, is, is something something something something something something something something, thi, is, thi, is, is thi, is thi, is thi, is thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thi, thousand, thousand, thousand, thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii, is somethings, is somethings, is thi, is thi data and the data that's shown by victimization surveys. These are individuals who have been violently victimized who are reporting to survey takers what they've experienced. We see the same thing with respect to use of force

surveys. The public, people who have contacts are surveyed by the Bureau of Justice statistics and they report how often they're subjected to uses of force, how often use of force are threatened, how often police officers draw their weapons, and we don't see an incongruity between the police data and the data reported by people who have been served who have had police contacts. So I think that should just give us a little bit of a sense of security that maybe something isn't completely off with this data. I want to say thank you so much for joining me on the show. Thank you. Thank you for having to have for to to to for to for to for to for to for to for having for having for having to for having to to to to to to to to the conversation to to th for having a conversation to to the conversation to to to to have a conversation to have a conversation to have a conversation to have a conversation to have a conversation the conversation to have a conversation to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to th. th. th. Thank you for having the conversation the conversation the conversation the conversation the conversation the conversation the conversation th. Thank you for having th. th th th th thi thi for having thi for having a conversation thi for having a conversation thi for having a conversation thi for having a conversation thi thi thi thi thi thi thi thi. thi thi thi. to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have to have thi. Thank you for having a conversation the corners back let's go walk in the streets. A fascinating week is available now we're going to take a quick wake we'll be

right back after this. Thank you. I will. I really appreciate it. I'm Tim Harford. It's been said that nice guys finish last. But is that really true? I'm Tim Harford, host of the Cautionary Tales podcast,

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Monstrous, self-devaring egos and accounts of the extraordinary power of decency. Listen on the IHart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.