The Daily Signal - #335: What Exit Polling Data Shows Voters Really Cared About

Episode Date: November 8, 2018

What did the election results really say about how the country views President Trump? What issues do voters actually care about, and what are the independents thinking? And are all young adults really liberal? Oh, and what difference did the caravan or Brett Kavanaugh make in the election? Erin Norman of Heart and Mind Strategies joins us to share the results of the group's exit polling, and what the hard data shows. Plus: Even by his own standards, Trump had quite the aggressive exchanges with the media at a press conference Wednesday. We also cover these stories:--Attorney General Jeff Sessions, one of President Trump’s first supporters in his campaign, is stepping down.--States passed ballot initiatives on marijuana, abortion, Medicaid, and more in the elections. --Actress Alyssa Milano, one of the leaders of the #MeToo movement, is not happy with the Women’s March.The Daily Signal podcast is available on Ricochet, iTunes, SoundCloud, Google Play, or Stitcher. All of our podcasts can be found at DailySignal.com/podcasts. If you like what you hear, please leave a review. You can also leave us a message at 202-608-6205 or write us at [e-mail]. Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak equipment modernization. We're fluent in data digitization and expansion into foreign markets. And we can talk all day about streamlining manufacturing processes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do. Business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us. And contact Desjardin today.

We'd love to talk, business. This is the Daily Signal Podcasts for Thursday, November 8th. I'm Kate Trinco. And I'm Daniel Davis. With the midterm elections behind us, it's worth exploring some of the data to see exactly what voters were concerned about and what they want from the next Congress. Today, we'll sit down with Aaron Norman of Heart and Mind Strategies, who has some helpful insights.

Plus, President Trump and the media are back at loggerheads. We'll take a look at his latest encounter with the one and only Jim Acosta. But first, we'll cover a few. few of the top headlines. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, one of President Trump's first supporters in his campaign, is stepping down, stating in a letter to the president, at your request, I am stepping down. There had long been tension between Sessions and Trump over the Russia investigation and Sessions' decision to recuse himself from any involvement in it. Well, speaking at a press conference on Wednesday after the results of the midterm elections,

President Trump struck a conciliatory tone with Nancy Pelosi, who will likely be the next Speaker of the House. I give her a lot of credit. She works very hard, and she's worked long and hard. I give her a great deal of credit for what she's done and what she's accomplished. Hopefully we can all work together next year to continue delivering for the American people, including on economic growth, infrastructure trade, lowering the cost of prescription drugs.

These are some of the things that the Democrats do want to work on, and I really believe we'll be able to do that. But President Trump also drew a line in the sand. He warned Democrats that if they used their subpoena power to open up investigations into the Russia controversy and his tax returns, he would adopt a, quote, warlike posture. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also offered an olive branch to Pelosi.

He said he's been in conversations with her since the election results came in, and he hopes they can find a way forward. On election night, Pelosi said that Americans were tired of division and said, quote, we will have accountability and strive for bipartisanship. We must try. In that same press conference, President Trump took quite an aggressive stance towards the media. Here's one exchange. Let's go ahead.

Hi, Mr. President, Yami Shell Center with PBS News Hour. On the campaign trial, you called yourself a nationalist. Some people saw that as emboldening white nationalists. Now people are also saying that the press. It's such a racist question. There are some people that say that now the Republican Party is seen as supporting white nationalists because of your rhetoric. What do you make of that? I don't believe.

I just, well, I don't know. Why do I have my highest poll numbers ever with African Americans? Why do I have among the highest poll numbers with African Americans? I mean, why do I have my highest poll numbers? That's such a racist question. Honestly, I mean, I know you have it written down and you're going to tell me. Let me tell you, that's a racist question. And Mr. President, I want to ask.

You know what the word is? I love our country. I do. You have nationalists. You have globalists. I also love the world. And I don't mind helping the world. But we have to straighten out our country first. We have a lot of problems. Excuse me. But to say that, what you said is so insulting to me. It's a very terrible thing that you said. There is also this exchange with April Ryan of the National Urban Radio Network. Well, I'll give you voters. I will give you voter suppression. You just have to sit down, please. Sit down. Sit down. Sit down. I didn't call you. I didn't call you. I didn't call you. I'll give you voter suppression. Take a look at the CNN polls how inaccurate they were. That's called voter suppression. Go ahead, please. Thank you, Mr. President.

I'm not, I'm not responding. I'm responding to, excuse me, I'm not responding to you. I'm talking to this gentleman. Would you please sit down? Excuse me, excuse me, would you please sit down? Please, go ahead. Thank you, Mr. We'll discuss this more in our last segment today. Oh, boy, and it's going to be fun. Well, with Republicans now enjoying a more comfortable margin in the Senate, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he'll continue full speed ahead with his top priority, confirming judges to the federal courts. The president, I think, has done an excellent job in picking young men and women

who believe the job of the judge is to follow the law, and we intend to keep confirming as many as we possibly can for as long as we're in a position to do it. So it'll still be my top priority in setting the agenda here in the Senate. Next Congress as well. Well, Election Day may be over, but not all the results are finalized. In Florida, Senator Bill Nelson is now pursuing a recount after Republican Rick Scott took a narrow lead over him in the Senate race. In Georgia, gubernatorial Democrat candidate Stacey Abrams campaign is saying she's still going to fight

and is exploring her options, according to the world. Wall Street Journal. She also trails her opponent. In Montana, however, Senator John Tester won, defeating Matt Rosendell, a Republican. And in addition to electing candidates, a number of states voted on ballot measures on Tuesday. In one notable development, three red states voted to expand Medicaid coverage in their states. Those states were Utah, Idaho, and Nebraska, solid red states. Medicaid expansion was a provision of Obamacare that gave states the option of expand. the program, though a number of red states had refused to do so. And in addition, three states, including Utah, voted to ease restrictions on marijuana.

Voters in Michigan passed a measure that fully legalizes the drug for recreational use, while Missouri and Utah voted to legalize medical marijuana. Meanwhile, in North Dakota, voters rejected a proposal to legalize recreational marijuana. Two pro-life measures passed Tuesday. Alabama passed an amendment that stated that the state of Alabama, Alabama does not protect the right to abortion or require the funding of abortion, and West Virginia passed the no constitutional right to abortion amendment. Well, with Nancy Pelosi angling for the Speaker's gavel, the GOP leadership race is now on.

Jim Jordan of Ohio officially announced his intention to run for minority leader on Wednesday, though he faces a challenger in Kevin McCarthy, who's currently the number two House Republican, and outgoing Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, has endorsed McCarthy. And Liz Cheney, the Congresswoman from Wyoming and eldest daughter of Dick Cheney, announced that she'll be challenging Kathy McMorris Rogers for House Republican Conference Chair. Cheney said that she wants to revamp Republican messaging and go on the offensive in responding to attacks from Democrats. Actress Alyssa Milano, one of the leaders of the Me Too movement, is not happy with the Women's March. In remarks to advocate, she said, quote,

anytime that there is any bigotry or anti-Semitism in that respect, it needs to be called out and addressed. I'm disappointed in the leadership of the Women's March that they haven't done it adequately. At issue is the relationship between leaders of the Women's March and Louis Farrakhan, who has a history of anti-Semitic comments. Per the advocate, Milano won't speak at the next Women's March without a change in leadership of the group. Well, up next, we'll sit down with Aaron Norman to discuss a breakdown. of what voters cared about. Are you into storytelling podcasts that help explain some of today's toughest policy issues and debates?

Every week on the Heritage Explains podcast, we interview experts, intermingling media clips and personal stories to help simplify issues from a conservative perspective. Find us on iTunes or wherever you get your podcasts. What Explains What Happened Tuesday Night? Joining us today on the podcast is Aaron Norman, a senior senior. Solutions Consultant at Heart and Mind Strategies, a firm that the Heritage Foundation often works with. Erin, tell us about what you noticed last night and also what does this say about President Trump. We saw a lot of things last night. We did some exit polling among 1,000 Americans nationwide folks

who actually turned out to vote yesterday and asked them a wide variety of questions. And one of the things that we saw is that for most people, things have been improving over the last two to four years. We saw the number of people who said that their personal financial situation has gotten better over the last two years increase by 8%. And we also saw the number of people saying that the country is going in the right direction increased a significant amount from the Obama midterms. So overall, people believe things are getting better, and that's in the face of all of the contentious news cycles that we've been facing, specifically connected to President Trump. So I think President Trump can justifiably claim that, you know, things are going well and that even though there were losses suffered in the House, that those were probably mitigated to some extent by how things have been. trending over the last two years. Well, there were, of course, so many issues at play during various parts of this election cycle.

I'm curious what you found in terms of what voters overall were most, what they cared most about. We asked people to rate a large number of issues and then also force them to pick what was the most important to them. The most important was ensuring long-term Medicare and Social Security benefits. followed by ensuring access to affordable health care. And then after that, a tie for third place among immigration reform and restoring honesty and trust to government and government officials. The rest of the issues really fell significantly below that, including things like gun control and minimum wage and even getting the right kinds of justices on the Supreme Court. These were all issues that people rated as important, but when forced to pick the one that was most important, really fell to the bottom of the list.

So health care, I think, is going to be an area that there will have to be some work on. And given the fact that we're in split government, we'll probably have to have some compromises on. But it is a key driver. And if it's left untouched between now and the next cycle, I think that's going to create a lot of problems. So, of course, leading up to the midterms, we heard an awful lot about the migrant caravan. And there was also discussion about whether Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings had an effect. What do you think did those issues actually matter to the voters or what did your data show? The Kavanaugh hearings definitely mattered to the voters.

And interestingly, it was split. It didn't matter more for Republicans or Democrats. It was equally important to both groups and actually a little bit less important to independence. The immigrant caravan was more important to Republicans, but important overall. I mean, about 50% said that it was a significant motivating factor in their vote on Tuesday. We also looked at three other specific news stories and how they motivated turnout, and those were the possibility of impeaching President Trump, President Trump's involvement and endorsement of specific campaigns, and then the current

national conversation around sexual assault. With the current national conversation around sexual assault being the lowest, only 40% of people said that that had a significant impact in motivating their vote and even only 55% among Democrats. So while it was a very large conversation, when it happened, it's faded a little bit. and the translation wasn't there in terms of motivating people to vote. You had much stronger reactions from both parties, from the Kavanaugh hearing, and then among Republicans, the caravan.

And with Democrats, the strongest motivator was the possibility of impeaching the president. Well, you know, it's interesting how the election sort of gave both parties some bragging rights. Obviously, Democrats took the House, but it wasn't as big as they had hoped and Republicans gained in the Senate. based on the data you've collected here, how do you interpret this for Trump? Is this overall a win for him or a rebuke? I think overall it's a win. There's a fair amount of data that's showing people believe things are getting better, like I said. And really there's some partisan splits that are showing us that he's really effective in turning out.

his base and I get the impression that's all he was trying to do. And in that regard, he was very successful. We also looked at, added a question about the rallies that he did, which the number was staggering for a sitting president of the number of events he did leading up. And we asked people if they had attended or watched one of President Trump's rallies and about 30 percent overall did, which was double the number that said they attended something put on by the Democrats, whether that be a rally or an event. And we left it. So we asked specifically about Trump rallies and then any Democratic leadership.

And so obviously without a sitting president, there were a lot more people and a lot more events that could happen because they could tap into multiple people. And even still, the participation in Trump's events was really high. And we're still looking at early data, but it looks like it made a significant impact in Arizona, in Florida, in places where the margin of error is or was. I know we're still waiting on some final tallies. Critical. So I think the Republicans didn't keep the House. That's obviously a blow.

But I think things looked pretty good for President Trump last night based on what we're seeing so far. Well, yeah, it's so interesting that you bring up. the rallies because I feel like as someone who used to be a campaign reporter, it always amazes me how interesting his rallies are. I mean, just you never know what he's going to say next and it's all over the map. And I feel like, you know, regardless of your political affiliations, it's like in some ways must watch TV. And even, you know, former President Obama, who's obviously very charismatic. It's, there's just not that unpredictability. But anyway, that's amazing that it made a difference like that. Yeah, and there's some of the cross tabs on that. They're just fascinating. So we saw

22% of self-identified Democrats said that they either attended or watched a Trump rally. And to me, it's this idea of, I love to watch so I can get so angry about it. Gosh. Which we know those people. Everybody knows that person in their life. I wonder if anyone runs blood pressure commercials during his rallies. And then the younger voters, they were more likely to attend to any sort of event, which I found really interesting. They were more likely to go to an event headlined by a Democrat, but still, among those who attended a Trump rally, you saw this spike in the 18 to 29 population.

So I know there's a lot of discussion about the youth vote and what side of it. falls on and I think it's a mistake to assume that Trump doesn't have any under 30, under 35 supporters. There is a youth contingent. I think that is very dedicated to him and keeps turning out at these events. And it is making a difference. Interesting. And what about independent voters? I mean, you know, you mentioned Trump really plagued his base. It seems the Democrats with the talk of impeachment and everything are sort of doing the same, which makes the independent. even more crucial? So the independence, we're seeing some early signs in the data that they're just a little bit fed up with everything. They're less motivated by the whole host of issues. It's not as if

partisans are really interested in impeachment and immigration caravans and the independents are thinking about education. They're less likely to be motivated by all of the issues. They're less likely to have been motivated by any of the news stories that we spoke about. The one place that they spike is this idea that government isn't working the way it's supposed to. They are far more likely to say that than either the right or the left. And they're also significantly more likely, or I'm sorry, slightly more likely to say that government and politicians have got to find common ground with each other. So we tested that in a way where we gave two statements. One was they have to be able to work together and compromise. And the other side was that people, politicians shouldn't

compromise. They should fight for what they believe in. And independence, they're less on that camp than partisans. And really, overall, 75% of people think we need to be looking for common ground, which is something to keep in mind when you watched some of the speeches last night and some of the things that came out first thing this morning about what the Democrats are planning to do now that they have subpoena power now that they've got control of the House, it might feel good. It might motivate the base. But among that middle swing, independent voter, it is the exact opposite of what they want to see. They want to see divided government working together to compromise and to come up with solutions, not to, you know, do all of the things that they couldn't get done while Republicans

held all branches of government. That's so interesting. It's such a tension. It's such a tension between, you know, appealing to the independence and the base. What do you think the Democrats' main incentive will be these next couple of years? Obviously, you've got some that straight up want to see impeachment and investigations into Trump. But do you think that Nancy Pelosi, if she becomes Speaker, do you think she'll have the, that her main incentives will lead her there? That's a good question. I think the incentive for the individual members, there were a lot of Democrats that won last night in places where absent Trump they wouldn't have won. And those members are keenly aware, I think, of how far they can push an agenda in the House full well-knowing it's not going to go anywhere in the Senate.

And so to what end do those members that kind of skated through and will be in real, contest in 2020 and 2020 and 24, what can they do and what kind of protection can the Democratic Party offer them in the future? I think the more they march towards the left, the bigger problems some of those people have and the incentives on the individual level are fairly low to go along with some of that. What Nancy Pelosi and the party and leadership can offer those people? Couldn't, you know, couldn't guess to say, but I think there is real danger for anybody that came in in this midterm. I don't want to call it a wave, but in this midterm kind of pattern of what we're seeing of going to extreme, of losing their seat. And I don't think they, the Democrats want to be in that position in a presidential year where Trump is running for reelection, whether they see that or not, or, or.

Go with that strategy. Again, I can't tell you. We'll just have to watch. That we will. Well, thank you so much for joining us, Aaron. Thanks for having me. Okay. Next up, we're going to talk about President Trump's epic press conference where he attacked the media quite vigorously. Hi, this is Rob Blewey, editor-in-chief of The Daily Signal. If you liked hearing about the issues that Washington's not discussing, check out underreported. A brand-new video series from The Daily Signal looking at other issues that the mainstream media forgot to mention.

Well, after speaking on Wednesday about the election results, President Trump took some questions from reporters. Here's part of his encounter with CNN's Jim Acosta. Payne had an ad showing migrants, climbing over walls and so on. Well, that's true. But they weren't actors. They're not going to be doing that. They weren't actors.

Well, no, it's true. Do you think they were actors? They weren't actors. They didn't come from Hollywood. These were people, this was an actual... You know, it happened a few days ago. There are hundreds of miles away, though. There are hundreds and hundreds of miles away.

That's not an invasion. Honestly, I think you should let me run the country. You run CNN. And if you did it well, your ratings would be much better. If I may ask one of the question, Mr. President, if I may ask one of the question, are you worried? That's enough. That's enough. That's enough.

That's enough. That's enough. Pardon me, ma'am. Excuse me. That's enough. Mr. President, if I may ask on the Russian investigation, are you concerned? that you may have indictments. I'm not concerned about anything with the Russian investigation because it's a hoax.

Are you, that's enough. Put down the mic. Mr. President, are you worried about indictments coming down in this investigation? Mr. President. I'll tell you what, CNN should be ashamed of itself having you working for them. You are a rude, terrible person. You shouldn't be working for CNN. Go ahead. I think that's unfair.

You're very rude person. The way you treat Sarah Huckabee is horrible. and the way you treat other people are horrible. You shouldn't treat people that way. Well, after that testy exchange, Senator Lindsey Graham released the following statement, quote, It's apparent to me the White House Press Corps

lives in a bubble, and the way they are conducting themselves today will do nothing to improve their standing with the American people. Certain members of the press cannot stand the fact that President Trump and Republicans defied expectations in the midterm elections, actually growing our Senate majority.

The mainstream press are not, in my opinion, enemies of the people, but rather allies of the Democratic Party, playing an activist role in support of their agenda, end quote. So, Kate, it doesn't look like the election did much at all to heal the rift between the president and the media. Is this just going to be another two years of bomb throwing on both sides? Oh, probably. And they probably both benefit ratings go up for the media. You know, Trump feels like he gets a worthy opponent or maybe an unworthy opponent. I think that was very nice that he defended Sarah Hughey-Sanders.

Very chivalrous. I'm not surprised it's not getting more recognition. You don't seem very bothered by this at all. Honestly, I think it costs that. I mean, I did not watch the full press conference. I don't know if there's context around this clip that I'm missing. But honestly, that strikes me as rude. Like, I'm sorry.

I've been one of a million reporters at a press conference. And not everyone gets called on, especially with the president. Like, it's often kind of funny. If you ever watch these White House briefings, they'll ask like a six-part question. I'm slightly exaggerating, but they'll ask a three-part question because they want to get several questions in, but they know they only get one chance. And why should Ocasda? He got a question in.

He asked his question. You know, Trump gave him an answer. Why should he get a go on forever and ever? I mean, there's plenty of people, such as the Daily Signals Fred Lucas, who should be called on. Yeah. The sense of entitlement is very real. And you see like when Trump took office, groups like the Daily Caller, the others who are getting

questions like the mainstream press folks were upset. Who are these people? Yeah, and I do think Trump should answer questions from the mainstream media. I'm glad that he does it. I have no objections to him calling on Acosta. But if Acosta is saying he's a victim because he couldn't question President Trump until President Trump, like, I don't know, like got tired. I don't know what, like, what is his expectation?

I think anything more than one question is an unreasonable expectation. And I just don't understand what point there was to his question. He was trying to ask him, are you concerned about indictments coming down? Like, what's he supposed to say? Oh, I mean, I get it. It's one of those things. You know, it makes news. Like, it was, I don't object to the question.

I just think that, you know, this. And, you know, again, I'm not sure the full context of the clip we played earlier on April Ryan when he told her he wasn't going to give her a question. But, I mean, there is, yes, it's a delicate balance. The president should speak to the press, including press. like. But at the same time, there's not some, you know, right established in the Constitution here that reporters get to ask the president questions whenever they want for as much as they want. I mean, that's not a thing. In fact, you know, the daily press briefing, which hasn't been daily so recently, is that's not something that's in law. That's just a tradition that the White

House is maintained. Yeah. And I think the White House, like I think President Trump, I want to say earlier in October. I believe we covered that he had actually done more conversations with the press than any other president in recent memory. And I think it's good for him to talk to the press. And I also think, you know, with the white nationalist question, again, which we played earlier in the show, you know, something that I don't think you necessarily realize until you're a conservative reporter or, you know, a conservative who follows the news closely, is how loaded

the questions often are by the main. through media, which would be a little bit more fine, except as far as I can recall, like, in the past, you know, eight, nine years that I've been following press conferences pretty closely. I think only twice has a conservative reporter gotten to ask, like, Pelosi about abortion and framed it in such a way that it was like, are you okay with killing children older than 20 weeks, or it wasn't quite that? But, you know, both sides can play this loaded question.

Right. It's like a statement in the form of a question. Right. And you're basically insinuating that. Trump is racist. And I think it's to Trump's credit that he's not afraid of the question, as a lot of conservatives are, that he's willing to take it head on and be like, I am not racist. I don't see being a nationalist as being racist, you know, and explain what he means by the term. And, yeah, I don't know. The media is frustrating. Yeah, it is. Well, we will leave it there for today. But thanks so much for listening to the Daily Signal podcast, brought to you from the Robert H. Bruce Radio Studio at the Heritage Foundation.

Please be sure to subscribe on iTunes, Google Play, or SoundCloud, and please leave us a review or rating on iTunes to give us some of feedback. We'll see you again tomorrow. You've been listening to the Daily Signal podcast, executive produced by Kate Trinko and Daniel Davis. Sound design by Michael Gooden, Lauren Evans, and Thalia Rampersad. For more information, visit DailySignal.com.