The Daily Signal - #384: Scott Rasmussen on Trump's Poll Numbers and Some Surprising U.S. Trends

Episode Date: January 25, 2019

On today’s show, we feature an interview with pollster Scott Rasmussen. We quiz him on his latest polling numbers, including the president’s approval numbers, and some surprising trends that you��ll want to hear about. Rasmussen is a renowned pollster, author, and co-founder of ESPN. He most recently wrote the book, “The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not,” and publishes new polls daily at ScottRasmussen.com.Also on today’s show:• Your letters to the editor. Next week your letter could be featured on our show; write us at [e-mail] or call 202-608-6205.• A church in Dallas is stepping up to help federal workers who missed their paycheck last week.The Daily Signal podcast is available on the Ricochet Audio Network. You also can listen on iTunes, SoundCloud, Stitcher, or your favorite podcast app. All of our podcasts can be found at DailySignal.com/podcasts.If you like what you hear, please leave a review or give us feedback. Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the Daily Signal podcast for Monday, January 28th. I'm Rob Blewey, editor-in-chief. And I'm Jenny Maltabano. On today's show, we're featuring an interview with pollster Scott Rasmussen. We quiz him on the latest polling numbers and some surprising trends that you'll want to hear about. We also have your letters to the editor, and we share a good news story about a church coming to the aid of federal workers during the government shut down. We're joined today by Scott Rasmussen, a best-selling author, Polster, and Entrepreneurs. entrepreneur. Scott, welcome. Rob, it's always good to visit with you. It is. It's good to see you back

here in the Heritage Foundation building. After a few years away from polling, you've recently returned to offer daily surveys at your website, Scott Rasmussen.com. Can you tell our listeners more about your work? Sure. Right now, it's Scott Rasmussen.com. We interview a thousand voters every single night, seven days a week. We ask a few questions every single day. How's the president doing? What about the generic congressional ballot? things of that sort. We even ask whether things would be better or worse if Hillary Clinton had won that last presidential election. And we do those to give us sort of a benchmark. We also ask a series of questions on a repeating basis, questions about the Supreme Court or immigration or

health care so that we can measure trends over time. And then, of course, there are always topics like the shutdown or whatever else comes up that we ask about on a day-in-day-out basis. So you can come to our website and always find something current about breaking news, find out how people think the economy is doing and a range of other topics. Let's talk about President Trump's approval rating. You recently recorded the lowest level of approval in your surveys. What are you seeing exactly? Right now, what we've seen in the last few weeks is the president's approval ratings have

been slipping. And, you know, they're not in free fall, but they continually are reaching new lows. Don't quite know what's driving it other than the fact that it is going on at roughly the same time as the shutdown. We also know at that same time people's confidence in the economy has been going down. So we don't know quite how all of those are related, but it is, it is very noticeable in the last few weeks. Is the president getting credit for the positive economic news and jobs numbers that we see? Or do Americans really separate that success from what he's doing? The answer is yes and no. Sure. People are happy with the economy, especially when

was booming. I don't think the Republican Party in general and the president-specific did enough to connect it to their own policies during the last campaign. But at the end of the day, most voters don't sit around and think, well, my paycheck is going up. Who do I give credit to? You know, they say my paycheck is going up. I'm so happy. The numbers that I watch most when you talk about this going forward are what are the trends? What are happening in people's lives? What I know today is that 45% of all Americans say the economy is good or excellent. It's not a bad number, but it's down about 10 points from the fall. We do this poll every week with the Job Creators Network,

and our four-week rolling average for the first time shows that more people think the economy is getting worse than getting better. Again, is that a temporary phenomenon related to the shutdown and will it reverse somewhere later? if that's the case, it's really not a big deal. If the trend continues and confidence in the economy continues to soften, that obviously, as you know, has some negative implications. Well, speaking of the shutdown, how would you say President Trump's favorability compared to someone like Nancy Pelosi or other Democrats? You know, Nancy Pelosi as a congressional leader, every congressional leader has terrible

favorability numbers. You know, you get elected by your home district and then you have to do this thankless job of leading a caucus that doesn't want to be led. So coming in Speaker Pelosi's favorable ratings were 36% favorable, 47% unfavorable. That's a higher negative ratio than the president has. She did get a little bounce out of her rebuttal to President Trump last week. So her numbers are up just a little bit.

But, you know, people don't, again, they're not making that comparison. It's not Trump versus Pelosi or Trump versus Schumer. people evaluate them each on their own terms. And, you know, one of the things that I love about Washington and hate about Washington all at the same time is that we get caught up on some of these short-term things. A year and a half from now, when people are deciding who to vote for in 2020, the shutdown is not going to be the top item on their list. In fact, it's not going to be anywhere on their list.

So let's talk about some of the other issues specifically. And I want to begin by asking, what are you see as some of the unifying issues that President Trump, as he approaches the next two years, can embrace in a state of the union address or other, you know, major policy speech. What would you advise based on the polling results that you're seeing? Well, the president has to decide whether his strategy is to reach out broadly to build a bigger coalition or to excite his base and add a few more people. If his decision is to build on his base, A lot of the themes he's been talking about are very effective. But maybe some of the emphasis isn't quite right.

You know, we're talking a lot about a border wall right now. Eight out of ten Americans believe illegal immigration is bad for America. So that's a very unifying theme. The wall is a little bit more divisive. There are other ways people would like to see border security enhanced. And so if you added a whole series of other things to it, that might help a little. I think what would be the best for not just the president, but for Republicans in general, is to also recognize that eight out of ten people believe that legal immigration is good for this country

and maybe make a regular appearance at swearing in ceremonies of new citizens who have come in through the legal route and welcome them and embrace them into the country. A lot of this is not about the issues. It is about the signals that we're sending. And sometimes, a lot of times actually, the Republican part, party loses track of that distinction between legal and illegal immigration. Healthcare was among the most important issues on the minds of Americans when they voted in November. Today, conservatives and liberals have much different visions of what they want to see

done. Do Americans want more market competition or government regulation, would you say? Oh, look, they want more competition. They want more choice. The Democrats were very, very effective in the 2018 campaign because they ran on. the fear that the Republicans were going to take away protection for people with preexisting conditions. We asked voters, there's a court case working its way through that Obamacare is now, it may be declared unconstitutional. We said, what would you want to happen if, you know, if Congress has to deal with this? Number one on the list of voters' minds was protect those with preexisting conditions. Number two was give voters more choice, more options, and the types of

health insurance products they can buy. We actually asked a while back if workers should be given a choice between a higher paycheck and less insurance coverage or the reverse. Well, three out of four voters say, yeah, of course they should have that choice. You should be in charge of your own decisions. More significantly, 65% of working Americans said they would opt for less comprehensive coverage and a bigger paycheck. Why is it that it seems voters are rewarding Democrats, as exit poll data suggested after the November elections, on an issue like health care and not Republicans?

I mean, Democrats seem to win that issue overwhelmingly. You know, Democrats were winning that issue overwhelmingly until Barack Obama was elected and began promoting Obamacare. And then Republicans began to win that issue overwhelmingly until they were in charge of everything. And they began to push on it. The health care system is broken. Three quarters of Americans say their own health is good, their health care coverage is good, their own insurance coverage is good, but the system is broken. So the person in charge of trying to fix it is the one that gets some of that blame. And again, let's be very clear.

The Democrats did a great job of running on this idea of the Republicans are going to take away protections for preexisting conditions. I think the other issue, and this is something that may be advocates of choice and, and freedom sometimes forget. You know, there is a tension between giving people complete freedom with their lives and also a desire for some kind of orderly society, for some kind of structure. When we talk about health care, people like the idea of giving consumers more choices. You know, do I want to buy a catastrophic care policy only? Do I want to buy these provisions or something else?

but they don't want it just totally unregulated. So, you know, I think a more positive approach might be to suggest, why don't we let the states set minimum standards? I live in New York City, so, you know, probably the standards that are imposed in my state would be higher than the federal Obamacare mandates. I have no idea. It would be a negative thing for me. But I'll bet if you were in Idaho, the mandate would be a lot less.

And eventually over time, the states would learn which things are really important for people to have. And that meets the idea of giving people more choice, but also providing some level of structure around it. That leads into my next question. How about when it comes to these big tech companies, would you say that the public is clamoring for them to be regulated by the government? Absolutely not. This is a great example. It's one of my favorites. 55% of people say Facebook has too much power.

Now, and to put this into context, less than 50%, say the president of the United States has too much power. power. So obviously Facebook has bugged a lot of people, but only 21% want the federal government to regulate it. Fewer than 25% want the federal government to break it up. There is a recognition. Six out of 10 voters recognize we have more power acting as consumers than we do as voters. They know that if Facebook doesn't clean up its act, eventually it's not going to collapse right away. It's too big. It's got too much momentum and too much inertia. But you can learn how to protect yourself on Facebook. You can learn how to do some other things, and that will have a greater impact than any government regulation. And look, at the end of the day, for all the

concerns people have about those tech giants, they think that government regulators would be more biased than the tech companies themselves. Let's talk about socialism specifically. This has been in the news a lot. I know you've done polling on this. Seems to be growing in popularity among some Americans, what can you tell our listeners about the views that you've observed among the data that you've analyzed? Socialism is certainly more popular than I would have ever imagined it to be in my lifetime. In our surveys, between 35 and 40 percent of voters consistently say they have a favorable opinion of socialism. And when I first saw that, I couldn't understand what was going on. So I began to figure out, try to figure out what it is they're looking for. The most important

message for anybody listening to understand is this is not your grandfather's socialism. What people say when they talk about liking socialism today has nothing to do with the ideology or what the ideology is meant historically. Give you a couple of examples. Seventy-six percent of people who say they like socialism like free markets. A majority of people who like socialism do not believe it will lead to bigger government or higher taxes. There are example after example of people who have these. Certainly most people who like socialism don't think it means the government taking over big companies or anything like that.

So I'm trying to get to an understanding of what it means. I think some of it has to be it's a kinder, gentler form of capitalism. There seems to be a belief among supporters that socialism would be better for people who are poor, maybe a little bit less inequality. There are some positive things might reduce racial and class tensions. But two out of three voters also think it would hurt the economy. So there's, there is this tension. And I think this is a really important issue to tackle. I'm going to be spending a lot of time polling on it in the coming year because if I'm talking to someone who tells me they like socialism and I answer the way that I would have thought of

answering that in my youth, this person is going to look at me like, what are you talking about? That's not what socialism is. So we need to understand what that terminology means. And I think it also then plays out in lots of issues. You know, we talked about health care. People love the idea of ensuring that everyone has access to quality health care. If you ask them about single payer or Medicare for all, people say, yeah, that sounds good. If you then ask them about Bernie Sanders plan, which would ban private insurance companies, only 19% support it. So again, there's an aspirational value to this that people connect with. And I think conservatives sometimes get so hung up on the policy or quoting the Constitution

that they forget that the reason we have a Constitution and the reason we have these values is because we want to create a better society. Well, and in that answer, one of the things that strikes me is that how we communicate about these issues is so vitally important. Right. It is, we are talking right past each other right now. There is simply, you know, it's a different universe. And, you know, another question that we asked that I'm beginning to explore right now, we did some surveys about the Green New Deal. And again, people like the idea of protecting the environment. They don't like the idea of higher taxes to make it happen. Two-thirds don't want to pay more than $100 a year for programs like this, but there's an aspirational value. you to it. Well, one of the things that advocates of a Green New Deal say is they think that should be a program for the government, the federal government, to transform the entire economy. So I ask people, are you comfortable with that? People over 35 overwhelmingly said no. But voters under 35 by a 45 to 40

margin said yes. So, I mean, it's pretty much a toss-up, but that fear of government transformation isn't there. There was more trust in the government than there was in earlier generations. Now, I don't think that when somebody answered my survey and said, they're okay, they're comfortable with the government transforming the economy. I don't think they're thinking the same thing that Bernie Sanders is. But I want to understand what they're thinking. What is it they're trying to accomplish? And Ginny, as somebody under 35, I certainly hope that you don't believe that. No, I do not. I was under 35 once. Long, long time ago.

At a time when some people are questioning the validity of polling, how do you make sure that you're getting an accurate sample of respondents? Well, first off, I remind people that polling is usually not the problem. It is the analysis and commentary that follows polling that is usually more problematic. In 2016, the average of all the national polls said that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by three points. She won by two points. That's a pretty good result for the polls.

Unfortunately, a lot of people who were following them in the national media assumed, well, there's a margin of error, so it's probably going to be six points, not the other direction. And there wasn't enough polling done in key states, so there were some problems there. And there were some things. So we didn't, as an industry, there wasn't enough polling done on making sure you had enough people in your sample without a college degree. So there are problems with polls, but I'm always going to say the Yanout. is where you really have to be careful. We're doing all of our polling online right now.

There was a time when phone polling made sense. But, I mean, really, if somebody called you on the phone, Jenny, would you know what to do? I mean, really, unless it's your family, you're not going to pick up. I think if my kids, you know, if I called them, they would say, what's wrong with mom or something? I mean, they would be shocked. So phone polling doesn't work the way it did.

With online and digital platforms, some people are online 24-7. some people are on 10 minutes a day. You have to find a way to balance that. We make sure that our sample gets a representative sample in terms of gender, age, race, political party, education, and income. And also geography. So you get that sample. And one of the things you eventually do is you try to compare the results to what you know is happening in the real world and what kind of consistency you get. And the next thing about it is, you know, when I said to you a minute ago that 76% of people who like socialism like free markets too, well, that's an accurate fact.

If you were to argue with me and say it's actually 71% or that it's 82%. Okay. The point is when you're analyzing this, it's a lot of people who like socialism also like free markets. Let's not claim more for the data than there is. These should be starting points to a conversation. rather than the way to end a conversation. Scott, last year you published a new book called The Sun is Still Rising. Politics has failed, but America will not. Tell us why you're optimistic about our future. I'm optimistic because I know that the culture and technology leads our nation forward,

and the politics and politicians lag behind. And it is something that I have long believed that I would go to people. One of my favorite, when I speak in person to groups, one of my favorite things is, I'll give my message and people say, yes, yes, I really love that stuff about the culture leading. Now, who do we have to elect to make that happen? I mean, you know, it's a hard message to really practice. But look, I start with a belief that Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have done more to create the world that we live in than all eight presidents combined since they founded Apple and Microsoft. And one of the cool things about returning the polling after you write a book is you can message test your book. So I found out that 71% of Americans recognize that Gates and Jobs have had that impact.

It's been a fun process. And, you know, I think this is a big part of why I wrote the book is to help people think that through. When a problem comes up in America, people don't instantly think which government leader is going to come up with the right policy. They think, what can I do in my community or what can I do closer or what can I do to fix something? And sometimes the answer involves government action. Sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes it's Uber figuring out new ways to break up transportation monopolies. Sometimes it's simply solving a problem close to home.

And people recognize this, but it takes a while to really accept that as a worldview. And it took me a long time. There's an example I give in the book. My wife and I and our young kids long ago were doing. a service day at church. And we were supposed to empty yams out of the back of an 18 whaler. And a sunny day, the stench was a little bit strong, but we're emptying it out and we're sorting out what can be good food for someone and what has to be thrown out. And as we sat there and looked at how big the stack was, we were all kind of depressed. We sat there for hours and had them

made a dent in it. When we turned and sat the other way and we saw how much food we had given to people or that we had made possible for somebody have, We felt really good about it. So we all started looking that way. When I look at the political system today, I get really depressed. When I turn and look at America, I'm very optimistic. Well, one final question for you. You have lived a remarkable life co-founding ESPN, publishing books, and then starting

polling businesses. What's your advice for being successful? Well, I don't know that I have any advice for being successful except for the idea that you just have to keep working at it. It's what you do when you get knocked down. after you failed that really matters. And, you know, there was when I was much younger, and we would start to talk about how did ESPN ever happen, I kind of told the stories about, you know, boy, we were really lucky. If these pieces hadn't have fallen together on this

particular day, it never would have happened. But over time, I began to realize that a lot of things didn't fall together on the right day, that when something went wrong, we tried a different approach and found a different way to solve the problem. And, you know, that's what it takes. It's not, you have to have an idea that you believe in. You have to have an idea that there's a market for. You have to think of what's important in your life. And then you have to try and do it every single day. And that's the really hard part. Well, Scott, we'll close, tell our listeners again where they can find your book and more information about the polling. Well, more information about the polling is at Scott Rasmussen.com. And just for anybody who might misspell it, because it

happens all the time. It's R-A-S-M-U-S-E-N, Scott Rasmussen.com. And if you go to that page, you can also sign up for my free daily newsletter of what's going on in the world. You can get my book either there or at Amazon.com or just about anywhere else you want to go buy a book. Well, we appreciate you visiting The Daily Signal. It's great to see you again. Great to see you. Do you have an opinion that you'd like to share? I'm Rob Blewey, editor-in-chief of The Daily Signal, and I'm inviting you to share your thoughts with us. Leave us a voicemail at 202-608-6205 or email us at Letters at DailySignal.com.

Yours could be featured on the Daily Signal podcast. Thanks for sending us your letters to the editor. Each Monday, we feature some of our favorites, both on this show and in our Morning Bell email newsletter. Ginny, what's in the mailbag? Well, first up, Jeff Pearson writes, The Democrats are trying again to do like they did with President Ronald Reagan. open the government back up, they say, and then we will dangle the border fence at you.

But it will soon be shoved aside as we have worked to do. President Trump won't let them, and now the whole shutdown is flat in the Democrats' faces, with them not knowing what to do. Funny thing, Democrats have never had to deal with our president before. All the other Republicans would have folded and gone home by now. Good for Donald Trump. And both Schumer and Pelosi asked for money for a border wall a few years back. And Cheryl Kaufman writes to us,

I want to take a moment to congratulate the Daily Signal crew on the quality of your reporting. I used to scan through the headlines and read a story or two. Lately, I have been reading everyone in tweeting several. You all are really on top of the hot issues and doing quality, responsible reporting, and analysis. That is appreciated. Well, Cheryl, we thank you for your support and appreciate the feedback. Your letter could be featured on next week's show. email to letters at daily signal.com or leave a voicemail message at 202-608-6205.

Did you know you can now listen to all of our events through SoundCloud or just by visiting our events page on Heritage.org? You now have access to hundreds of events and compelling discussions on policy issues from your car, on the train, or the comfort of your own home. Visit heritage.org slash events for more information or search for the Heritage Foundation on SoundCloud. As the government shutdown drags on, it's not just having an impact here in Washington, D.C. An estimated 800,000 federal workers around the country missed their second paycheck last week. And fortunately, communities around the country are stepping up to help.

In many cases, churches are leading the way. In Dallas, Concord Church Pastor Brian Carter surprised parishioners with a gift. Federal employees or their families received $100 gift cards to Walmart. I want you to know that if you have our government employee, you've been furlough, we've got a $100 gift card for every single one of you that are here today. To know that they thought of me like this to give back to me, it really means a lot to me. And I want to thank the court card family for doing this for me. It's beautiful. I came today just for prayer, just for prayer for myself and my government family and wasn't expecting what we got today.

Gin, it's so good to hear stories like this. I know at my own church this past weekend, we're encouraging donations at the local Coast Guard facility, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security and is going without funding. And I'm glad to see people of faith are doing something to help out. Yeah, it's really nice to see and hopefully we continue to see more of it. Well, Ginny, before we wrap up today's show, I do want to thank you for your contributions. As our listeners are going to be disappointed to hear that this is your last podcast for the Daily Seignola, as you're going to be moving back to Texas, although I'm very pleased to report that you're going

to continue as a contributor to the Daily Signal. So our listeners can still find your great work on our site at DailySignal.com. Thank you. Well, thank you, Rob. And thanks to everyone here. It's very bittersweet and sad to have the Lost podcast. But I am so excited to be staying on and really look forward to doing some more work for the Daily Signal. Well, thank you. And we're going to leave it there for today. The Daily Signal podcast is broadcast from the Robert H. Bruce Radio studio at the Heritage Foundation. You can find it on the Rurcet Audio Network along with our other podcast. All of our shows can be found at dailysignal.com slash podcast.

You can also subscribe on iTunes, SoundCloud Stitcher, or your favorite podcast app. And if you like what you hear, please leave us a review and give us feedback. Be sure to follow us on Twitter at DailySignal and Facebook.com slash the DailySignal News. The Daily Signal podcast will be back tomorrow with Kate and Daniel. Have a great week. You've been listening to the Daily Signal podcast, executive produced by Kate Trinko and Daniel Davis. Sound design by Michael Gooden, Lauren Evans, and Thelia Rampersad. For more information, visitdailySignal.com. Americans have almost entirely forgotten their history. That's right. And if we want to keep our republic, this needs to change.

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