The Daily Signal - #421: Why Brexit Could Happen Soon, and How It Will Affect Britain

Episode Date: March 19, 2019

Brexit has teetered on the brink of failure in recent months, as the British Parliament and the European Union have failed to reach agreement on exit terms. But today, those who support Brexit have cause for new hope. Nile Gardiner of The Heritage Foundation discusses new developments across the pond. We also cover these stories:•The Supreme Court handed a victory on immigration to President Donald Trump Tuesday.•Sen. Elizabeth Warren is joining the liberal chorus to end the Electoral College. •Canada's oldest rape crisis center has been stripped of public funding because it refuses to serve men who identify as women.The Daily Signal podcast is available on Ricochet, iTunes, SoundCloud, Google Play, or Stitcher. All of our podcasts can be found at DailySignal.com/podcasts. If you like what you hear, please leave a review. You can also leave us a message at 202-608-6205 or write us at [e-mail]. Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk, business. This is the Daily Signal podcast for Wednesday, March 20th. I'm Kate Trinco. And I'm Daniel Davis. Well, Brexit has teetered on the brink of failure in recent months, as the British Parliament and the EU have failed to reach agreement on exit terms. But today, those who support Brexit have cause for new hope. We'll talk to Nile Gardner of the Heritage Foundation about new developments across the pond.

Plus, new data shows that Americans aren't so much divided by race as they are by racial ideology. We'll discuss that. And if you're enjoying this podcast, please consider leaving a review or a five-star rating on iTunes and encouraging others to listen and subscribe so we can keep growing. Now, on to our top news. Well, the Supreme Court handed a victory to President Trump Tuesday when it ruled that immigration officials have the authority to arrest an immigrant awaiting deportation if he's previously served prison time for a criminal offense. The 5-4 majority, led by the court's conservatives, said that federal authorities could detain such

individuals indefinitely, even if it had been years since their release from prison. Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito said it was not the court's job to decide when a government official should carry out his duty, only that that duty is better carried out late than never. During a press conference Tuesday with the Brazilian president, President Trump spoke out against socialism. The twilight hour of socialism has arrived in our hemisphere and hopefully, by the way, it's also arrived that twilight hour in our great country, which is doing better than it's ever done economically. The last thing we want in the United States is socialism.

Trump also continued to speak against the late Senator John McCain on Tuesday. I'm very unhappy that he didn't repeal and replace Obama. As you know, he campaigned on repealing and replacing Obamacare for years, and then he got to a vote, and he said thumbs down. And our country would have saved a trillion dollars, and we would have had great health care. So he campaigned. He told us hours before that he was going to repeal and replace, and then for some reason, I think I understand the reason, he ended up going thumbs up. And frankly, had we even known that, I think we would have gotten a vote because we could have gotten somebody else.

So I think that's disgraceful. Plus, there are other things. I was never a fan of John McCain, and I never will be. Well, Senator Elizabeth Warren is joining the liberal chorus to end the Electoral College. Speaking at Jackson State University in Jackson, Mississippi, Warren spoke against what she called voter suppression laws and called for a constitutional amendment to protect voting rights. She then said this. Well, my view is that every vote matters.

And the way we can make that happen, is that we can have national voting, and that means get rid of the electoral college. Former Texas congressman and 2020 contender, Beto O'Rourke, was asked about late-term abortion. Here's what he had to say via national review. Are you for third-trimester abortions or are you going to protect the lives of third-trimester babies? because, you know, there's really not a medical necessity for abortion. It's not a medical emergency procedure because typically third trimester abortions take up to three days to have. So you would, in that sense, if there was an emergency, the doctors would just do a C-section

and you don't have to kill the baby in that essence. So are you for or against third trimester abortions? So the question is about abortion and reproductive rights. And my answer to you is that that should be a decision. that the woman makes. Well, with so many issues to expose in the 2020 election, Andrew Yang, the young presidential hopeful, is going after circumcision. Last week, when asked on Twitter about his position on the routine procedure,

he said, quote, against the practice. He then elaborated in an interview with The Daily Beast, saying, quote, I'm highly aligned with the intactivists. History will prove them even more correct, end quote. He did clarify that he doesn't want to ban the practice. He just wants parents to be aware of the cost and benefits. Representative Devin Nunes is suing Twitter and seeking $250 million. He appeared on Fox News and told Sean Hannaby why he was suing the tech giant.

And when they're regulating us, they're regulating what people can see on my tweets, which they've done. And then they're proliferating out things that they agree with, with the algorithms that they develop. They need to come clean. They're not a public square. They are content developers. That's right. So if you remember last summer, they shadow ban me. Well, and he denied that that ever went on, and he said he wants to be fair, but you didn't, you have not, your analysis is not shown that it is fair across the board.

And that a lot of these social media sites are, in fact, using those algorithms, if you will, or their behaviors to advance one side, which would then be, what, a political. political donation for Democrats? Well, how is it that every day there's conservatives that are being banned? So, you know, look, they don't want to call it shadow banning. That's fine. They can call it whatever they want to call it. But the fact of the matter is, is people could not see my tweets. Okay.

So now, but if you move forward, if you get emails from Twitter, it's constantly left-wing stuff. It's constantly fake news stuff. So I think if Twitter wants to be in the public square and they don't want to be a content developer, they should come clean, give us all your algorithms. How is it possible that I can be attacked relentlessly hundreds of times a day by fake accounts that they claim in their terms of service should not be there? Well, transgender ideology is on the offense in Canada, so much so that the country's oldest rape crisis center has been stripped of public funding because it refuses

to serve men who identify as women. The Vancouver rape relief and women's shelter, lost access to city funds after the city council said that they discriminate against trans women. City councilor Christine Boyle tweeted, quote, trans women are women and sex work is work. Trans women and sex workers deserve care and protection. I can't support organizations who exclude them, so I won't be supporting city funding for Vancouver rape relief. I hope we can redirect funds to an inclusive provider, end quote. In a statement, the organization said they had become the victim of discrimination against women in the name of inclusion. Next up, we'll talk to Nile Gardner about Brexit.

Want to get up to speed about the Supreme Court? Then subscribe to SCOTUS 101, a podcast about everything that's happening at the Supreme Court and what the justices are up to. Well, the Brexit situation has been looking grim, but there is some good news today. Joining us to discuss is Nile Gardner, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom here at the Heritage Foundation. Niall, thanks for being on. It's my pleasure. Thank you very much. So, Nile, there's some background to get into on Brexit just from recent months, but I want to ask you today, there is some good news.

Tell us what that is. Yes, well, the good news is that the European Union are sending some very negative messages on the extension of Article 50. Article 50, the Lisbon Treaty, governs the date of the departure for Britain from the European European Union. And the EU's chief negotiator, Michelle Barnier, just a couple of hours ago, made it clear that everyone should prepare for a no-deal Brexit on March 29th. So this is exactly the kind of message you want to hear if you believe in Brexit. And so the EU is getting cold feet about going ahead with an extension for Article 50.

That is good news. And any kind of signal coming from Brussels that the EU is uncertain about moving forward with an extension, this is a big positive. So the ideal situation for scenario for Britain, really, the end of next week, March 29th, is Britain to crash out of the EU under a no-deal Brexit. That would be by far the best option right now, considering all the alternative. that are in place. So what does that mean in practice? I mean, what does that mean for visas, for trade, for all sorts of issues, if they exit without a deal in place?

Yes. So a no-deal scenario simply means that Britain trades with the rest of the world under world trade organization rules. And the British government has already declared that 86% of UK tariffs will be removed, actually in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Some tariffs will remain in place, but you compare that with the European Union, which implements tariffs on practically everything.

And so Britain then will look to sign free trade agreements with major countries across the world, including with the United States. Already, they're very detailed discussions that have taken place on a US-UK free trade agreement. In terms of dealing with the European Union, I don't think things are going to dramatically change. I think that there were,

will be a willingness on the part of most countries in the European Union to continue business as usual with the UK, otherwise it hits their exports. So, for example, Germany, which is a huge car producer, 18% of their car exports go to the UK. And so for the Germans, they will quickly move forward, I think, with a mini agreement with the United Kingdom in the event of a no deal to ensure that trade continues to move smoothly between the two countries. And I suspect that most European countries will look to, you know, to move forward with many agreements, which have to be done, of course, through the European Union.

But I think it's in the interest of all EU countries to be able to be able to move forward with these, you know, these smaller agreements with the UK to ensure that trade, investment, exports, et cetera, continue as usual. So I don't think that no deal actually will result in. in any kind of major disruption. Temporarily, in the first few days, I think some things will have to be worked out. But the reality is that the British government

has been preparing for a no deal for a very long time. These preparations have been in place for many, many months. They haven't, the British government has not been keen to advertise this because they have been keen to secure a deal with the European Union. The EU, however, has not treated Britain in good faith. faith in terms of the negotiations. But rest assured, if there is a no deal, the sky is not going to fall in. And Britain will continue life as usual as the world's fifth largest economy. And I think that from a U.S. perspective, a no deal actually would be by far the best outcome

right now. Well, Prime Minister Theresa May had had a very difficult time finding an agreement between the EU and Parliament that would be agreeable to both sides. The vote, vote on her deal failed multiple times. Is there doubt as to whether she will remain leader of Great Britain for the rest of the year? Yeah, I think Theresa May's days are numbered as Prime Minister. There's no doubt about it. She has suffered a collapse of authority over the last few weeks, the last few months. You even have a situation whereby some of her own ministers are voting against her, even though they have been subject to three-line whips. So there's a collapse of cabinet in a collective responsibility, and she cannot, you know, maintain control of her own government

right now. There are many individuals inside the British government, including inside her own cabinet, who are trying to derail Brexit. And I think that these cabinet ministers have played an extremely unhelpful role, but they're still in place. Their jobs are still are still there. Theresa May has lost all authority, frankly. And I suspect that Theresa May will step down at some stage later this year. And if indeed Brexit is brought in either at the end of March or as Theresa May is hoping for at the end of June, I expect that she will step down soon after Brexit is implemented. And that will pave the way for a Brexiteer Prime Minister. someone who really is fully invested in Brexit to take over, which I think would be a far better alternative to having Theresa May stay as Prime Minister.

So it's been a while now since the Brexit vote. Why was it so important for Britain? Can you remind us to take this vote? And what are the long-term implications of this leaving? Yes, as they are in the UK on the ground on the day of the vote and celebrated the results of Britain leaving the European Union. That's a great question. Why is it so important? Well, Britain is part of the European Union, and bearing mind that Britain has been part of the EU now for several decades. Britain has not been a fully sovereign country. So Britain at the moment has no control of his borders. It has no control of two-thirds of his laws. It has no control of its trade. Its courts are subject to the rulings of European courts. Britain is in many ways a subject of the European Union.

And so you have bureaucrats sitting in Brussels who decide a huge percentage of British law. And this is an unacceptable situation. So the British people have said enough is enough and they want to have their freedom back. And at the end of the day, Brexit is all about sovereignty and self-determination, the right of the British people to decide their own laws, shape their own future, trade freely with whoever they want to trade with across the world, and they will no longer have to take, you know, dictats from EU rulers, really. And so this is what it's all about.

The American people would never, ever accept being told what to do by leaders in another country. It would be completely unthinkable and acceptable. This is exactly the reality of the European Union. today and so so Brexit is so hugely important in terms of what it represents for not just British sovereignty but the principles of sovereignty self-determination across the world today. So if Brexit does succeed that does show that it's possible to leave the European Union and to and to you know go on to be a

successful prosperous nation do you think that do you think other countries in the EU are watching Britain and that may encourage them to take similar steps? I think so I Brexit is being watched incredibly carefully by every country in the EU, which is why the EU elites fear Brexit so much, because they fear the impact it will have upon other European countries. Now, I don't think that right now any other country in the EU is preparing to leave the European Union, and no other country is prepared to hold a vote on EU membership right now. why because their leaders fear the outcome of those votes. If France, for example, held a vote on membership of the European Union, I think it would be very, very tight today. And I think in several other European countries, the vote would be very tight. So in terms of other countries leaving the EU, I mean, that's a matter for those countries to decide.

But I think if Brexit is a success, I would not be surprised if in the next decade or so you may see two or three other countries leaving the European Union. And so it could become a flood in terms of an exit and especially if some government society to actually hold referenda on EU membership, which could be a possibility in some countries in the next few years. So Brexit is a big game changer, which is why the European political elites fear it so much, hated so much why they've made the terms of exit incredibly difficult. they have treated the EU negotiations as a sort of punishment beating for Britain. And an opinion poll came out in the UK this week showing that over 60% of Britons

believe that the EU has treated the negotiations as a punishment for Britain. So that's where British public opinion is. It's a fair reflection of the reality here. So very big picture here. Let's say that Britain does leave the EU on March 29th. What does the political future look like for Britain as no longer being part of the EU? You've talked about Theresa May's career being in flux. A lot of conservatives in the United States are concerned about the rise of Jeremy Corbyn.

Do you think this could fundamentally change the country in some ways its political dynamic? Yeah, I think that Brexit will result in a more assertive and self-confident Britain. Because if you have foreign leaders deciding much of your own law and decide who can come into your own country, for example, then there's a lack of self-confidence, which you're seeing among some people in Britain today who are opposed to Brexit, they don't really have the self-confidence in Britain's ability to lead. And the reality is I think that Britain will be a far more assertive,

stronger power on the world stage outside of the European Union. And that's what sovereignty and self-determination really delivers, as Americans know so well. He's an incredibly powerful principles. And so I would expect that Britain will be more prosperous and also more assertive as a global leader in the Brexit era. And it's significant that in the run-up to Brexit, British unemployment has fallen to a 44-year low.

And there continues to be a huge amount of foreign direct investment flowing into the UK, US foreign direct investment into Britain rose nearly 20 percentage points in 2017 alone. The last year we had the exact figures for. And it's a demonstration of the confidence actually that US businesses have in Brexit. And you've seen the likes of Google, Bloomberg, Apple, etc., setting up new headquarters in London in the last couple of years since the referendum, demonstrating that there's a great deal of business confidence actually in Britain doing well outside of the European Union because Britain will have lower taxes, they won't be subject to EU tariffs. Britain will also attract a lot of the best talent from all over the world

as opposed to being subject to European Union migration laws and so on. So Britain will have a lot more control over who it brings into the country. And I expect that Britain will seek to bring in the best talent from across the world into the UK in the Brexit era. And so all the indicators are that Britain will do very, very well under Brexit will thrive and prosper. And you can't put a price on freedom, actually, which is at the end of the day what Brexit is all about. And it's something that Americans love dearly. The British people love freedom as well, but they haven't been able to exercise that freedom. in the last 45 years or so, and now they have the opportunity to do so.

Well, before Brexit, of course, there was the Scottish referendum. Yes. They chose to remain in the United Kingdom. Some have expressed concern that, you know, because Scotland was so largely in favor of remaining in the EU, that they may have second thoughts about remaining in the UK, do you believe that the United Kingdom itself will withstand Brexit? Yeah, so that's a very interesting point. So in the Brexit era since the 2016 referendum, support for Scottish nationalism has, if anything, fallen.

This is the most striking finding of opinion polls. There's no momentum for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom. And one of the reasons for that, of course, is that if indeed Scotland does leave the United Kingdom, it will also be outside of the European Union under Brexit. It would have to apply to join the European Union. Spain, for example, has indicated that they would strongly resist that because they have their own separatist concerns inside Spain with Catalonia. And so the idea that the Scots could simply just rejoin the EU is not necessarily a reality.

They would also be outside of NATO. And so they would have no real defence. And also Scotland relies very heavily upon subsidies from, especially from England. And so, you know, there isn't really the appetite right now for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom. I would expect if a vote were to be held in Scotland today, it would be even more heavily in favour of staying as part of the United Kingdom than in the last vote. Okay. Nile, thank you so much for joining us today. Are you looking for quick conservative policy solutions to current issues? Sign up for Heritage's weekly newsletter, The Agenda.

In the agenda, you will learn what issues. Heritage Scholars on Capitol Hill are working on, what position conservatives are taking, and links to our in-depth research. The agenda also provides information on important events happening here at Heritage that you can watch online, as well as media interviews from our experts. Sign up for the agenda on heritage.org today. We've seen a lot more concern about racism in recent years, but an interesting op-ed in the New York Times by Eric Kaufman, author of Whitechift and a professor at Birkbeck College University of London, argues that polling data shows a good number of concerns about racism or certain things being racist is driven by white liberals, not minorities.

For instance, Kaufman writes, quote, when it comes to microaggression statements such as America is a colorblind society, or you are so articulate, few blacks and Hispanics find these offensive, while more liberal whites do. Kaufman also writes, quote, in another survey, part of my own research, I asked Americans whether President Trump's wall is racist. White Democrats overwhelmingly said it was. Virtually no Republicans did and minorities placed in the middle. Daniel, what were your thoughts on this? So it was a really interesting article and I was kind of surprised, but then I guess I kind of wasn't because we did run a piece at the Daily Signal a couple weeks ago by me named Derek Hawley.

and he was talking about, he's an African-American conservative, and he was talking about how he saw in Virginia, he went to, he saw a protest of basically white protesters protesting against a pipeline project that would have created jobs for black Americans in the area, and all the protesters were white. And so it kind of shows, I think, a disconnect between a lot of the white liberals and, you know, other groups that they try to keep in the, their coalition. Yeah, I think it's really interesting because there are, you know, so much concern about, you know, obviously there are obviously racist things like governor nor them wearing blackface. But then there are also a lot of concerns about things that seem perhaps more in the middle and I'm not coming up with any good examples right now. But, you know, things that maybe someone genuinely could have not meant to be racist and is

it racist. And we talk about this on and on. And I do think it's interesting to see that actual minorities might not agree with the white liberals who are screaming microaggression and all this. Like, it seems like if you are concerned about racism, shouldn't you defer to the people who actually have that experience? Right. Do you, I mean, don't you think, I mean, this might be a sign that a lot of the microaggression culture really might be guilt driven. If it is white people who are mostly aware or attuned to the microaggression stuff, maybe it's because, you know, they have their own, you know, guilt that they're trying to, you

trying to make sure they don't, they're trying to make sure they're on the right side. Yeah, and I think it's, I mean, I don't know exactly what's striving it, but I think one of the most harmful effects is I think it causes people to think more about race, which I generally think is a bad thing. Obviously, if, you know, you're a racist, yeah, you should think about race and realize you shouldn't be a racist. But I think for most Americans, like thinking about race more, it sort of eradicates a society leaning toward colorblind, and it makes people, more focused on it. And I think that's bad. I also think that it encourages divisions. Like, people are afraid to speak freely around other people because they are afraid of offending them. And

then if you're constantly thinking while you're talking in a fearful way, I think that prohibits perhaps the honest dialogue that we need in this country to achieve. I mean, we obviously have a horrific past on these issues. I think there is still more healing and more dialogue that needs to happen. But, you know, it sort of seems like this focus on microaggressions, if it doesn't accord what the minority community wants, or at least what a lot of them want, why are we doing this? Yeah, I mean, it really seems to me that if white liberals want to keep the Democratic coalition going, you know, into the future, they're going to have to make sure that they actually

stay in touch with the very people they consider part of their coalition. It is just striking to me. I think this also kind of shows how maybe it's something about the university culture that is just so far out of touch with where, like, people actually are. I mean, I think that people who tend to obsess over these issues tend to be more extreme in their politics than ordinary people who might have an opinion about it, might be offended by certain things, but, like, they get over it.

I mean, there's very, like, people, not everyone's a snowflake, but I think if you spend your time in a university, you know, creating theories to expel, like, heretics like this, then you do become a snowflake. Well, I mean, I'm Catholic. I'm all for expelling heretics. But yeah, maybe not at the university level. No, I think it's, I also wonder, like, as you were talking, I started thinking, you know, maybe this is also, like, you bring up the universities. Well, we see this victim mindset, really taking precedence, taking place at these colleges. And I guess the more you are that racism is real and very present and, you know, that all these things are signs of racism

or hidden racism, the more you have a case to make that people are victims as opposed to being in charge of their own destiny. So maybe some of that is going on. Yeah. Well, we're going to leave it there for today. Thanks for listening to the Daily Signal podcast brought to you from the Robert H. Bruce Radio Studio at the Heritage Foundation. Please be sure to subscribe on iTunes, Google Play, or SoundCloud and please leave us a review or rating on iTunes. We'll see you again tomorrow. You've been listening to the Daily Signal podcast, executive produced by Kate Trinko and Daniel Davis.

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