The Daily Signal - 'Communists and Islamists’ Are on the Ballot: GOP Congressman’s Warning on 2026 | Riley Moore

Episode Date: September 19, 2026

Republicans want to define the 2026 midterm elections by contrasting their own party with the growing number of far-left Democrats and socialists.Rep. Riley Moore, a first-term Republican lawmaker from West Virginia, told the Daily Signal that will be key to mobilizing GOP turnout and keeping control of the House. Moore joined the “Midterm Report” to share his outlook with less than seven weeks until Election Day."You have communists and Islamists running up and down the ballot here in the United States," he said. "They want to pack the Supreme Court. Obviously, they don't believe in this country as a republic. They don't believe in our foundational documents."Moore, who represents West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, won his 2024 election with more than 70% of the vote. He said the stakes extend well beyond his own reliably Republican state.Also on the program, Rob Bluey is joined by fellow Daily Signal colleagues Bradley Devlin, Senior Politics Editor, and Virginia Grace McKinnon, Congressional Reporter, to debrief the first ever Midterm Republican National Convention, and more on today’s edition of “The Midterm Report.” NEW FILM, The Immigration Crisis That Will Destroy The West, presented by The Heritage Foundation, OUT NOW: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX0rwaEs5jA  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the Daily Signal podcast, where we provide intelligence for the intelligent. Now, without further ado, here's today's take. Don't you wish you could just hit skip on the worst parts of your life? You know, the same way you can skip an ad? I get it. I'm Siaiaa and I live in Ice Cove. I've made some questionable decisions that didn't end up the way I planned. And today, I'm still figuring it out.

Somehow things usually get worse before they get better. Apparently, that's how I roll. So bundle up and come along for the bumpy ride. Stream a new episode of North of North Tuesdays on CBC Gem. You have communists and Islamists running up and down the ballot here in the United States and what that could do to this country since they want to literally rearrange it, they want to pack the Supreme Court. Some are talking about getting rid of the United States Senate.

Obviously, they don't believe in this country as a republic. don't believe in our foundational documents. That's why they want to completely change those very principles and foundational stones in which the country rests upon. So, yeah, I think people are pretty freaked out about what's going to happen in this election. Congressman Riley Moore, thanks for joining the Daily Signal. Thanks for having me on. Well, I just listened to you and Congressman Miller talk about the role of faith in your life, obviously an important conversation, and one that I think is increasingly you're seeing play out with a lot of Americans as they like to see their members of Congress talk about these issues that are important to them personally. And I want to start by asking you, you represent West Virginia's second congressional district.

You have this midterm election coming up in less than seven weeks. What's top of mind for your constituents right now? You know, I think they're really concerned about the potential of the Democrats taking the House and what that, going to look like. Obviously, we're going to be fine in West Virginia. We're a very Republican state, but the potential outcomes for the country, I mean, where you have communists and Islamists running up and down the ballot here in the United States and what that could do to this country, since they want to literally rearrange it, they want to pack the Supreme Court. So I'm talking about getting rid of the United States Senate. Obviously, they don't believe in this country as a republic. They don't believe in

our foundational documents. That's why they want to completely change those very principles and foundational stones in which the country rests upon. So yeah, I think people are pretty freaked out about what's going to happen in this election. And so, yeah, it's why we're out there. We're working hard. I've been helping out a lot of candidates all over the country right now and just got to keep our foot on the gas. Do you think that there are certain issues, that are animating voters, maybe not necessarily in West Virginia, that is giving them an impetus to either support some of these socialist candidates because they're frustrated with the way the system's working, or is it simply that they don't truly understand fundamentally the changes that

they would usher in should you be serving in the next Congress with a socialist? Yeah, I mean, look, they're talking about cost of living because cost of living is a real issue. Cost of living is an issue in West Virginia, certainly, and it is around the rest of the country, it's something that we've all been struggling with since we were on hyperinflation under the Biden administration, which we have ratcheted back. We have righted the ship, but it does take time. I know nobody likes that answer, but it does take time to get these things moving in the right direction, which we certainly are, but for that to bear fruit, to make it tangible for the American people, my constituents. But the policies in which we have passed in this Congress,

beautiful bill being one of them in terms of those tax cuts in terms of reducing the deficit. I mean, and that's a big, big deal. You're not going to see it tomorrow and you're probably not going to see in 49 days from now, but it is something that is going to fundamentally change lives and make them better here in the country. So look, the issue of affordability, they are running on that hard, and they have made that very clear that that is their main message. And, who do you trust to make things more affordable in your life? The Republicans or the Democrats. I mean, clearly it should be the Republicans. We are the party of financial responsibility, of fiscal responsibility. They are the ones that pushed us over the debt cliff during COVID. That's them. That's how we got here.

That's how we had hyperinflation going on. I remember for the first few months, it was supposed to be transitory, right? And it just went on for the entirety of his turn. And obviously President Trump's been in office for less than two years, but has done a lot, a lot to move us back into the right direction as it relates to that. Let me ask a follow-up to that, because specifically I heard you say at the event that the Republican Party has undergone this transformation, certainly under Donald Trump. And there's a real focus on not only American families, which you were talking about, but American workers and putting them kind of at the forefront of what the Republican Party's policies champion. are there issues that you feel don't get the attention that they deserve or policies that you've passed out of this Congress that you want to highlight now to our listeners? Yeah, look, one of the biggest things that we have done, and I know there was kind of some consternation, particularly in this town about it, but tariffs, balancing trade, and reshoring

jobs is going to fundamentally change the outcome for the American worker in this country. That is a fact. Now, obviously, same thing. It takes a little while, but those jobs are coming back home. You've seen the jobs reports, and particularly in manufacturing. It was generally we're growing jobs in government and health care. That's not a good indicator for a healthy economy in my view. Now we have seen jobs reports coming out where we are putting more real jobs on the balance sheet here in this country, which is, that's a fundamental shift. to bringing back the American worker to the center of all public policy decisions. You think about what was the most productive time in American history, when we were the most economically prosperous and dominant in the world. It was post-World War II. I mean, where we represented a significant sum of the world's GDP

because we were making things. We were making things. And the idea that we can, oh, you can't turn back the clock, you can't do. Of course you can. Of course you can. These are policy decisions. We're not just on some continuum that we can't get off or turn around or change the trajectory of things. And that is what President Trump and this Congress has been doing.

Now, you obviously know firsthand from your experience as a welder before you got into politics. Then you went on to serve as a state treasurer. So what are some of those policies that you would like to see this next Congress should Republicans retain control continue to advance? as we look forward to a contentious, potentially contentious, 2028 presidential election between a Republican standard bear and perhaps a socialist on the other side. Yeah, I mean, one of them is, and look, it is a nuclear bomb hanging over our head is the national debt, right? I mean, it is a huge problem. I mean, we are now paying well over a trillion dollars a year just in interest.

It is larger than the defense budget of the United States, larger than the Department of War, the interest that we're paying on the national debt. It's a huge problem, right? I mean, and it affects bond market and everything else. Now, that is something that I would like to see in another Congress is another reconciliation bill where we take another whack at those drivers of the national debt. I think that's a really big thing that we need to tackle, too. And we talked about this at the event earlier, is policies that are putting the family back at the center of public policy and the decisions that we're making is going to make this country a much better place.

We shouldn't be making it more difficult to be married, right? Like we incentivize single motherhood for some reason in this country. You're not sure why we do that. We should be, in my view, rewarding families that are staying together and working hard and contributing. into their communities, not punishing them. So in my view, those are two things that I would like to see. Yeah, well, certainly the House has done a number of things. They oftentimes get delayed or hit a wall in the Senate.

But certainly you've been busy over the course of this particular Congress. Congressman, I'll leave you with one last question, and it goes back to the event and talking about your faith. Certainly anybody who's on X or follows you on social media knows that you are quite vocal about the importance of religion and your faith. Catholic faith in in your own life and you even spoke about how how God guides, you know, all of the decisions that that you make. Why is that so central to your your position of leadership here in Washington, D.C.? I think it should be central to anybody's life. I mean,

you need to pray, and I do, that I can discern God's will in my life. I mean, if I'm here just trying to implement my own will, I mean, this is how we get in trouble. I mean, this is where the socialists are, right? These godless socialists, they're going to fix it. You don't need God. You got government. No, I don't think so. That's not the point. That's not, that's not the direction that we want to go. And, you know, I get all the time, they're like, oh, separation, church, and state, blah, blah, blah. Let me just point something out. One, that's not in the United States Constitution. Separation Church and States is not in the United States Constitution. Many people think it is for whatever reason. Two, that letter that Thomas Jefferson wrote, about separation of church and state was about keeping the government out of churches. It wasn't about public officials checking their faith at the door when they walk into those buildings and making an informed decision on how to guide the country forward. So that's why it is just central to my life and everything that I do, because I think it's for the, if it is God's will, that I am able to implement here in terms of my own formulation of policy

and the way that I'm doing things, it's going to benefit everybody far better than if I'm just sitting here thinking of the best way to help everybody in the world. Congressman Riley Moore, thank you for setting that example. We certainly appreciate it and we'll continue to follow your work.

Thanks so much. God bless. Many Americans are going to have a big wake-up call. We have never seen net migration as high as it has been in the last few years. This year, there have been more people coming to the UK in small boats than ever before. You did an extreme thing to the, the country.

Britain is facing a migrant crime epidemic. We don't actually know where they're coming from, who they are, how old they are. Why would you let in millions of people who are unvetted if not to change the country from within? There is no other word for it, demographic replacement. England's a bluefin for America. It's coming. Yeah? It's just a bluefin.

Thousands of daily migrant crossings. A political earthquake threatens to reshape America. We are showing there is a new path for politics. politics in our country. Not all cultures are the same. You cannot ban shedia. America is a nation of immigrants. We are a nation of immigrants. We are a nation of immigrants. We're a nation of immigrants. We're a nation of immigrants. The immigration crisis. Watch now on the Heritage Foundation's YouTube channel. And we're back on the midterm report. I'm Rob Bluie and I'm joined by my daily signal colleagues, Bradley Devlin, our politics editor and Virginia Grace McKinnon, our journalism fellow. Both of them have been closely tracking

election races across the country. Bradley, Virginia Grace, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me. I should also note that Bradley is the host of Signal Sitdown. And then this past week's Signal Sit Down, the most recent episode, you had a chance to sit down with Michael Anton in Dallas, Texas. You were there for the Republican midterm convention. Virginia Grace, you are also there on the floor. So why don't we start with Dallas? We haven't had a chance to really unpack what played out at this first ever midterm convention. So I'm curious from your perspective, Bradley. You got to see two of big events going on, not only what Republicans were gathered for in President Trump and J.D. Vance giving big speeches, but also this side event where

you had a lot of conservatives debating some serious policy issues. So what was that experience like? Yeah, I likened these two events to scouts in a military party and the camp, right, where the faithful infantry are hanging out preparing for the campaign. The faithful infantry at the R&C convention were very, very excited. I was actually surprised at how much enthusiasm I saw there because it wasn't just the mainstream media who thought this was going to be a flop. It was people around this town who really weren't sure how everything was going to pan out in Dallas. And it panned out very well. Expectations did not meet reality. And the president really liked to draw that contrast in his two-hour stem winder on night one. And also on night two, when he said he was going to be

brief, he still gave us about 15 minutes of fun before they broke into those three songs at the very end of the convention to send everybody home. There was the type of enthusiasm that was on display at the RNC, though, was the type of enthusiasm of, we're just happy to be on the winning team and in a winning moment. That's a really important enthusiasm. Few things matter more in politics than winning and maintaining control of the levers of power and government. But the enthusiasm at forum was different. It was, I don't want to say more muted, but it was, it was more intellectual. It was, we're living in a majority coalition. And yet it feels like everybody in the words of Matthew Peterson, the organizer, has been fighting over the spoils of victory. And that's

something that conservatives do. Today, it's something that conservatives have done for the entirety of the modern American conservative movement. As soon as they win something, everyone stands on their own little hill, shouts my principles, and then refuses to work together things. fall apart. Then you have to put them back together again and beat back the left. Now, that enthusiasm, though, I think was, they were very enthusiastic about what could be done, given the groundwork, given the foundation that the Trump decade of domination has provided the right. I think it's really grounded the right in a lot of important ways, understanding modern electoral politics, understanding the dynamics of current elections and the need for our election integrity, understanding the threat that immigration faces to the country and how popular that issue can be if Republicans, if conservatives are not walking on eggshells with any of these issues. Same thing with the cultural stuff, right? Transgenderism, LGBTQ issues, especially as it pertains to those things being present in our classroom. Those are things that in previous iterations

of the Republican Party, the Republican Party that I grew up with, they would be afraid to say something because they're afraid of being called racist in the New York Times. That era is over. There is. Oh, it certainly is. There is going to be an after-Trump Republican Party, but there will not be a post-Trump Republican Party. And I think that's what the people at the forum were enthusiastic about figuring out. They were really trying to put time, effort, consideration into where, how do we conform to this movement that everyone's so blessed to be a part of while also transcending it in really important ways? Because the reality on the ground, the political dynamics are always going to be changing. That's what part of being a conservative is.

It's not just standing on principle. Great as our principles are. It's actually understanding what reality demands of us, given our principles, given, as one of my professors said, channeling muscle Kirk, finding the unchanging ground in a constantly changing environment. And now I think we're a little bit more tapped into the changing environment, thanks to the Trump years. Yeah. Well, I'm so glad you had a chance to participate. In fact, the full seven hours, I believe, of programming is available. We can include a link to it in the show notes.

you used, you talked about Matthew Peterson's comments there. Remind me somewhat of Yoram Zoni's comments at the beginning of the National Conservatism Conference last year, where he was also talking about similar themes. But you used that enthusiasm word several times. And it's interesting because that's a word that we heard on last week's show from Brent Buchanan, the pollster, who said that the Trump MAGA base is really enthusiastic. Even if Trump's not necessarily on the ballot, they are the ones that you really don't. don't have to necessarily worry too much about. It's the traditional Republicans who seem to be sitting on the sidelines and not as motivated. And Virginia Grace, I'm just wondering in your experience on the floor at the convention, the people that you interacted with, who were the

attendees? Were they more in the Trump MAGA camp? Or were they more in the traditional Republican camp? They were definitely in the Trump maga camp. People were calling it Trump a Palooza instead of the RNC midterm convention. Attendees were really excited to be there. We heard chance of 2028 for Trump's speeches and Vance's speeches, which is classic MAGA. Which is a crazy primary to make it out. But yeah, people were really excited to be there. Definitely MAGA crowd.

We had a lot of candidates on stage, a lot of Trump admin officials, and some surprising endorsements too. But yeah, the crowd was really excited to be there. So to Bradley's point, you know, going into this convention, the traditional legacy media had nothing but negative things to say. It's a high cost for Republicans and candidates to attend. People were just simply not going to show up. There wasn't going to be the level of excitement that might be at a traditional convention every presidential year. Sounds like that is not what you experienced.

How did they get it so wrong? I don't know. Maybe it was just because it was the first ever midterm convention. Nobody really knew what to expect. But we saw those tweets early in the day of empty stands. But as soon as 5 o'clock rolled around and those headliners came on stage, the stadium was packed full. Every live media outlet broadcasting network was there live streaming the entire time. So it really got a lot of coverage and it ended up being a really big event that I don't think people were expecting it to. to be. One of the biggest unexpected costs with the Trump 2024 campaign and just the Trump operation generally is emergency pallets of bottles of water for when they host big Trump rallies. And it's 100 degrees. And these people are out there for seven, eight hours. I mean, they have to be on point making sure people stay hydrated or there's going to be a bunch of medical emergencies. People, I mean, it was 100 degrees in Dallas. People waited hours in line to make sure that they got through the first perimeter and then the second perimeter and into the venue on time to see all the

administration officials they see on Fox News or they see behind the rostrum in the White House press briefing room. That's the type of commitment that these people have to the movement that they have to the moment. And I think that's the classic elite corporate press underestimation of how dearly this president is loved by a coalition that he built by force of personality, frankly. and also built oftentimes contra to what party elites would have wanted for the coalition at this point in time, right? I mean, just imagine if Trump never goes on the stage. Where is the Republican Party at at this point in time?

Or imagine if Trump never goes down the golden escalator. Where is the Republican Party? I don't even know if the Republican Party exists as at least a conservative entity, much less exists, period. Yeah, no, that's a very fair point. And I remember, you know, obviously covering that campaign in 2015 and 2016, going to the first debate in Cleveland, it was just fascinating to see how Trump was treated by his fellow candidates at that point. And even some of the traditional news outlets, not taking him seriously and just how he has transformed so significantly, the Republican Party, as you say, as it exists today. So I want to talk about some of the speakers who stood out in your mind. You had one of them on The Signal Sit Down just a couple of weeks ago, Congresswoman Anna Polino Luna, right? She talked about on your show how going into a forum like that and talking about issues that are really popular with the American people, but not necessarily things that Congress is excited about doing. So who stood out in your mind, Virginia Grace. We'll start with you. And then Bradley, I'll come to you for next.

I think Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., definitely stood out to me. He always really does. He spoke a lot about him growing up and that he never, ever expected to be on the stage of a Republican midterm convention with the president in the president's admin. And that was, I think, a really big message of the convention. We saw an endorsement from John Federman for McCormick, a Democrat coming over maybe to the Republican. side. So I think that that was a really big messaging from the convention that this party is saying that they're for everybody. And we had speakers showing that. Yeah, I think Bobby's moment was really, really important and great. And it was, I think when Bobby got into detail about how we see real food, real food consumption increasing in the United States, how we're seeing obesity rates decrease in

the United States. And like, whether that's real food related and exercise related or Ozempic related, who's to know at this point in time? But there's, of course, a very interesting ongoing debate about GLP-1s and OZPIC and all that stuff within Mahau that I don't fully understand because I've never fully understood these people. But those were the types of 80-20 issues. Your kids should eat real food that animated the 2024 campaign. Our border shouldn't be invaded by millions of people just because the president says that they can come into the country. Your kids should eat real food. Men should not be playing in women's sports. I mean, it was just 80-20 issue after 80-20 issue after 80-20 issue that the Democrats volunteered to

take the other side of 10 years ago. And Trump had, again, that force of personality to bring all these people into the camp. The real challenge now is keeping them in the camp when Trump isn't on the ballot. Right. And Trump really feels that. That's why I think Trump did his extended pledge to go out there and vote. When Trump is considered on the ballot, or when Trump is on the ballot, Republicans overperform every single time with respect to polling. And even when Trump's political future is in question, for example, in 2022, we weren't sure if he was going to be running for a second term. Democrats ended up picking up one seat in that election. But we look at 2018. I mean, Republicans picked up two seats in the Senate, feeling the pressure of what a Democratic

crap majority in the House would do to President Trump. And so when people feel, when Trump's on the ballot, that's one thing. But when people feel that Trump's agenda is at stake, it does motivate them in really important ways. And I think this midterm convention was a great example of that because the president has no problem with his approval rating in the Republican Party. The president has had, you know, it bottomed out there for a little while after the 2020 election. But throughout his first term, he retained a 90 plus approval rating within the Republican party. Right now he's sitting around 88% approval rating in the Republican Party. Those aren't the people that you should be concerned about. It is the fact that we won, that Republicans,

conservatives won a number of swing states, swept the swing states, most of them by less than five percentage points. And if you lose the 6% of the electorate that made up that important part of the coalition, all those swing states go the other way. So what we've seen in people who voted for Trump in 2024, but don't identify as MAGA, is less enthusiasm. And I think Bobby and Paulina Luna talking about those 8020 issues, reuniting people around those 8020 issues is what can make sure that not just the MAGA base, but the Trump 2024 coalition that ended up giving them the victory turns out come November. So let me ask about a follow-up question to that, because clearly J.D. Vance, the vice president, was attempting to reach that coalition that you,

refer to. And I thought gave a quite powerful address on Thursday night, the last night of the convention. One of the most notable moments, obviously, was when he encountered the heckler, you know, waving the Mexican flag and that just that moment going viral. But there were so many other things that Vance said and was trying to connect with those people who might not just be your traditional Republicans, but, you know, different segments of the American population. So how would you grade Vance's speech? I'll start with you, Bradley. I think it was an A-plus. I mean, I think he really. knocked it out of the park. And you have to remember, I mean, he was, he had strong name ID within

the conservative movement. He's had that for quite some time. But in 2022, he didn't have the name ID. And he still didn't have a new politician. He was a new politician. And in 2024, when he was chosen to be the vice president, he still didn't have the name ID as someone like a Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz or these other guys who have been fixtures of the Republican Party for longer than Trump's been involved in Republican politics. And he had to introduce himself to the American people. And in 2024, he told a very personal story introducing himself. And in 2026, coming back, he did feel like he was taking up the mantle of what the future

could look like for the Trump movement, got to talk about the ways in which he has worked with the president to deliver on the campaign promises. The types of campaign promises that people were really. looking for in the era of Joe Biden. I mean, if we look at Vance's Senate run in 2022, for example, Vance was in a dead heat. At this point in time, in September of 2022, he was in a dead heat with Tim Ryan. That's right. Yeah. Good point. Once people got to know J.D. in his agenda, J.D. wins that election by six points. So the polls were wrong in September. They were wrong at the end of October. And he ends up winning

by six points in the state of Ohio. Everyone will say, oh, Dwine won by so much more. But DeWine was a known entity. J.D. wasn't. And I think that's the type of personality that J.D. has. That's the type of messaging, curation, and execution that did him really well in the Senate, did him really well so well in the Senate that he became the vice president. And as we look forward, I think a lot of people are trying to label him as weird or not as polished or not as natural as Trump. But time and time again, he's shown to be very effective at this. Yeah.

They underestimate the vice president at their own paraphrase. I would say that's true. And I was particularly struck by his focus on the American family and American worker. What was the audience reaction to Vance? Do you feel that they are, I mean, there were chants of 48, right? So, I mean, is that an indication that he is the frontrunner for Republicans as we head into 2028? Like you said, Rob, his message was for the American birthright. He wants to create an America and hold an America that is for his children and for American's children.

And after speaking with the attendees, after his speech, that was really the message that they all got. They all agreed that it was an A plus, A plus speech. And while Vance did say he's not announcing anything and he's waiting and suggesting to the American voters to wait for 2028, it sounded like people were really. excited to see him on the ballot. Yeah, I think that was a great encapsulation of what you just said, that it was about the American family and the American birthright, right? 2024, it was about him and his family. And what he believes is his birthright. There was a beautiful line that I'll paraphrase that about being buried in the same cemetery as his parents and his grandparents someday. And he carried that forward to now two years of execution. And it's not about

getting to know his family and his background and his heritage now. It's protecting your family and your background and your heritage and advancing that in ways that are proper and dignifying to the human person. Yeah, absolutely. And I like the fact that he brought in his new son and obviously Usha just giving birth recently was a nice touch to the speech. Before we move on from Dallas, you got to do something else while you were there. You got to go to the State Freedom Caucus meeting. And this is a group, obviously, they got its start in Washington, D.C. with the House Freedom Caucus and I remember it well. Obviously, a lot of great conservative leaders coming out of that. They have taken their operation to state capitals across the country to try to change some of the establishment Republican ways in which they're not really advancing conservative policies to shake things up.

So what was that experience like? That was a great convention, a great gathering of real conservative voices in states. from across the country, getting to hear really what conservative lawmakers in these states want to do their goals. Election integrity was a big one, passing these Save America-esque bills in these states while we wait on the Senate to do that. But yeah, it was a great opportunity to meet some of these state leaders and hear what their goals are. And they actually get the opportunity for the first time with Andy Biggs in Arizona this year. to have a conservative governor, conservative Freedom Caucus governor and Freedom Caucus state

in their state legislator. So they are growing and they have the opportunity to now bring state Freedom Caucus members to the U.S. Congress for the House Freedom Caucus. Wow. And there's a lot of turnover happening right now in the House Freedom Caucus. So there will be opportunities for people they've cultivated in these state networks to advance. One thing that I will point out is I love this strategy of pushing the Save America Act in any way, shape, or form on the state level. We've had a lot of good conservative states lead on this issue. Of course, we think of Ron DeSantis as Florida. And just to put into contrast, right, like Florida was, it turned it out to be the red mirage.

And that was because we received results so quickly from Florida, who had that state had just put in really great election integrity measures. It's kind of this interesting dynamic. Like, whenever a state puts in really good election integrity measures, Republicans end up gaining like 10 points in the elector. Like, what's going on with that? Just asking questions here. But if you look back at 2018, before those different laws were placed in Florida, Senator Rick Scott was going up against Senator Nelson. Rick Scott was trying to unseat Nelson. and Nelson was up in the polls like three points in September and then one point in October.

And Rick Scott only wins that election by 0.1% in 2018. Of course, 24, Rick Scott has a much easier time. But this is a type of shift that's happened in a state like Florida because the fundamentals, of course, have changed. The issue areas have changed. We've capitalized in those 80, 20 issues. But also because we put in common sense legislation. that's going to protect the vote and not lead to these abusive practices that Democrats have gone all in on for the last 20 years. And so if there's any way that we can do that in as many red states as possible, right, like as soon as your state legislature flips red, save America act, we're doing it.

Done. End of story. I think it's massively beneficial to the Republican Party and to the conservative movement. Definitely. And just on that note, there was a group of state Doge leaders inspired by Elon Musk's work here in Washington. Washington, who were in Washington, talking about some of those efforts. And Florida, maybe more so than any other state, has taken great steps in this regard to try to not only create efficiency at the state level, but also push local governments to do the same, push state public-funded universities to get out of the DEI business and get back to a real academic teaching. So I think you're right.

And that's a great transition, actually, for us to talk about some of the States, why do we start with the Senate? Brother, you've been focused on some big races. A lot of news just within the last few days, obviously intense focus here in Washington, D.C., around whether they're going to regulate AI. We have seen MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk start to spend some big money in races and behalf of Republicans. Are things improving? Are the outlooks improving, do you think, for Republicans when it comes to keeping control of the Senate? I think I am more bullish on Republicans keeping the Senate than I was two weeks ago before Dallas and before the convention. But I have always been a relative skeptic of the line that Democrats actually have a path to taking

back the Senate. And I pulled some numbers that I want to go through real quick. If you look at, and I kind of previewed this with some of my other comments about Rick Scott's election in Florida and J.D. Vance's election in 2022 in Ohio. But if we look at the polling averages, right? So on average, cross polls in a particular race, how much is one candidate leading the other? If we look at 2018, in Arizona, cinema was up three in September, Nelson was up three in Florida, Donnelly was up three in Indiana, Missouri, which was Hawley was tied, Montana showed Tester plus three, Blackburn plus one, Cruz was plus four. Well, when we actually get to the results of those elections, cinema wins by 2.3, less than the margin. Scott actually overcomes that three-point deficit he was running in September, right?

So this time in 2018 and wins by 0.1. In Missouri, Hawley wins by six points. Blackburn, who was only plus one in September, ends up winning by 10 points. Same story in 2022. You had John Fetterman, who was up by 5 in 2022. he ends up winning by a little less than five, despite the he cratered for a while there in October, according to the polling results.

But pulling results don't matter. The only thing that matters is the election results. Mark Kelly showed he was plus six in September of 2022. He ends up winning that race by 4.9. Ron Johnson was considered tied in Wisconsin. He ends up winning that race by a point. Ohio, it was even. Vance wins by more than six.

Ted Bud was. considered in a dead heat. He ends up winning by 3.2. So time and time and time again, you see Republicans overperforming September polling averages. This is the case in 2018 and 2022, but also in 2020 where the map was the same. You think, oh, I know there's something about the Constitution. Only a third of the Senate gets elected every time. Let's look at the 2020 numbers. And I use the midterms because I think they're a bit more of a control case because who knows what's going on with the presidential election. But in September of 2020, it showed that in Michigan, Peters was up by five points.

Peters won that race by 1.7. Iowa, Democrats had a plus two advantage in the polls at this point in September of 2020. Ernst ends up winning by 6.6%. Mr. Gideon in Maine had a plus four polling advantage. Collins ends up winning almost more than eight and a half points. in in Georgia Purdue was polling ahead of

Ossoff by plus two but then he ends up losing the runoff the result was he was 1.8 ahead on election day he didn't hit the 50% thresholds they went to the runoff and Ossoff won the runoff

and then in North Carolina it said that Dems were going to be up five points on on Tom Tillis and Tom Tillis ends up winning that election by two points so even when the map was the same during a presidential year and even in these other midterm elections that we've seen recently,

2018 Republicans gained two, 2020 Democrats gained three, 2022 Democrats gained one. Republicans have always overperformed the expectations. What do we see in the expectations this year? Jackson in Maine has a 2.5 point advantage over Susan Collins. That's not enough. Abdul El-Sayed has 1.8 points advantage over Mike Rogers. If I'm looking at historical experience, not enough. Tala Rico 2.6, not enough. Down the line. I mean, Aosoff, I think, is in a fairly strong position in Georgia. So she's pulling plus eight right now.

But all of these other races that they need to win, they need to flip in order to take control of the Senate. I don't think they're winning by enough. Yeah, no, that would seem to be the case. And if Asoff is the one outlier, I mean, he's also the incumbent. We know that incumbency does have its advantages. Right. And I think. think a flip in in Georgia was always something that they need to find a really good candidate for.

I think they found that in Mike Rogers. I mean, he's pushing the- Mike Collins. Yeah, yeah. Mike Collins, excuse me. Too many mics these days. Mike Johnson, Mike Collins, Mike Rogers. But Mike Collins is forcing Democrats to surge resources. So much, so many resources, in fact, they're like trying to use it as a launching pad for some Ossoff 2028 run or something like that. Right. They are. Yeah. And money spent in Georgia is money not spent elsewhere. For a broke Democratic Party, that bodes really well for Republicans if they spend their war chest wisely. As we've reported at The Daily Signal, there are certain segments of the Georgia population that are favoring Collins, including older voters. And so Assoff is not universally liked among all of, particularly, I think, the independents who, you know, are a key factor to break there.

he mentioned Maine. One of the things that you hear frequently from the Susan Collins team, and Maine is one of the states that you're tracking closely, is that she is consistently behind in polling if you go back almost every election, right? I mean, it's just the fact of life, and then she just pulls it out, you know, and she has since, what, 1997, I believe, is when she first took office. Wow. If I'm not mistaken. That was before I was born. Long time ago, yes. So you followed the race going all the way.

way back to the scandal, you know, and the new Democrat, Jackson, who's come in. What are you hearing? What are some of the stories that are, I think, animating that race right now? I still don't think he's separated. Troy Jackson has separated himself from Grand Platner. Okay. That was a really big scandal that I think people were anticipating and people have been aligning him closely with Grand Platner. He has really not tried to distance himself from Platner that much. They were good friends, long-time friends. And from what I've heard inside the main state government, Troy Jackson, he used to be a Republican. Yes, right. He originally campaigned and was elected as a Republican because that was the only way to win. And eventually

started caucusing with the Democrats, voting with the Democrats, ran as an independent, and then ran as a Democrat and now here we are. But he was originally endorsed by the DSA, the Democrat Socialists of America in the primary before Grand Platner got the nomination. So he's not technically endorsed by the DSA anymore as the nominee, but he formerly was and he is for Medicaid for All and has a lot of a lot of those priorities as the DSA candidates that we're seeing nationwide. left throughout his career. I think one interesting thing to me, though, is Graham Platner seemed to be, even before Graham Platner dropped out, right? Even the post-scandal polls for Graham Platner showed he had a larger lead over Susan Collins than Jackson does right now in the middle of September. And so he can't really distance himself all that much from Platner or else you're going to be demoralizing your own Democratic base who's really excited about the Platner movement and also I think part of the appeal of the Platiner stuff is the Democrat establishment has their own problems with a whole bunch of different types of insurgencies right now.

I guess I want to ask both of you a question. After the election in November, do you think we'll look back and say Plattenor would have done better against Susan Collins than Jackson? I mean, from those polling numbers, it seems like it. I don't know with his with his scandal with the alleged rape if what that says about Maine voters and what that could mean in the long run. But I mean, from the polling numbers, it looks like he could have been a better competitor. Yeah. I mean, certainly following it in. Maine's weird.

May and June and when all of that was happening, it seemed that a lot of Maine voters. I mean, those who were interviewed on camera were willing to forgive. him for some of these great sins that he had committed. So yes, very quickly. Yeah, so perhaps that is that is the factor. Let me ask though about the big endorsement that Susan Collins got this week. Joe Manchin, the former West Virginia senator who oftentimes did buck his own Democrat Party, including on opposing changes to the filibuster rule and things like that, came out and endorsed Susan Collins, who, you know, he called a great friend. Does that move anybody in Maine? Does it really make much of a difference? Or is it really make much of a difference? Or is

more of a Washington story that we focus on. And Maine voters may not really care all that much. That's a really good question because I think Maine oscillates between two extremes, which is they have this very zany voter personality and pattern, right? This whole story with Graham Platner, the whole story with Jackson now being accused of having relations with his cousin. and Maine has always kind of been this wildcard state. And same thing with New Hampshire. Like these these northeastern states as a Californian, I really don't understand as well.

You probably understand them a bit better as a New Yorker because you're closer. But like New Hampshire has always been the place of really weird political alliances. If you remember in the 2024 campaign, Nikki Haley had a good showing at the primary and Reid Hoffman was dumping millions of dollars into her campaign operation there. Of course, 2024 is where insurgencies. like the insurgency of one Patrick Buchanan really found some footing and made some hay. And Maine is similar in that way. At the same time, there's a considerable portion of the Maine electorate that is really just normie-coded that lives in a very high trust society that is not exposed to, I think, the rough and tumble politics of urban America in 2020, 26.

And they yearn for the days of, as AOC said back in the day, bipartisan ships. Yes. And Joe Manchin and Susan Collins are kind of par excellence of this. Now, are they part of the reason why we're $40 trillion in debt? Yes, they are. But it's the relationship that the main voters in that Normie fold are really looking for. So I think, I pray that the normies outnumber the schizos, but at the same. time, the schizzo has always seemed very, very motivated, and we live in the era of voter turnout.

Yeah. I mean, one thing that I certainly didn't anticipate happening over the last two weeks is Joe Manchin coming out and endorsing a Republican Senate candidate and John Federman, as you talked about earlier, making an appearance by video at the Republican Convention in Dallas. So, you know, who knows what might happen next. Federman's going to be a problem for Shapiro. Like, if Shapiro wants to run, like, which I think he does. Yeah, which he does. I mean, he's like doing all this weird communicating about the Lindsay Clancy supporters.

Have you noticed that? He's been sending out some dog whistles to the people who believe that it's just a mental illness and she shouldn't go to jail or anything like that. But this Federman alliance with McCormick creates, I think, real problems for Josh Shapiro if he wants to mount a serious 2028 challenge. Yeah, no, that's true. I do think that the Collins endorsement is more of a Washington story, but similar to the Federman endorsement. It's this pattern of Democrats endorsing Republicans. We're going to have to see how that plays out long term in, I guess, both of those states.

But the Federman endorsement definitely got more national coverage. I guess the Collins endorsement was just yesterday, I believe. So we'll see how that plays out. But, yeah, it's definitely going to be a long-term impact on. Federman and we'll have to see what he does with that. Yeah. While we're on Federman, if the result of the Senate is 50-50, right, if the result of the Senate is 51-49 Democrats, do you think Federman changes parties? You just think immediately at her. You go first, I guess. It seems like he's already there.

I mean, he called himself a common sense Democrat, which is a line that, um, the Republicans have been using. Speaker Johnson has been saying common sense for the past few weeks that they are the common sense. So just by him saying that he is a common sense Democrat and that that means that he is endorsing this Republican, I mean, I think we could very, very possibly see that. Yeah, I wanted you to go for, I mean, because you're on the Hill. You're obviously interacting with the members and the senators a lot more frequently than I am. I remember I remember exactly where I was in the year 2001, when we also had, not only did we have the very closely decided Bush Gore election, which came down to 500 some odd votes in Florida, but we also had a U.S. Senate, which I believe at the time was 50-50, and the tie-breaking vote was Vice President Cheney.

And going back to your New England comment, another New Englander, Jim Jeffords, the senator from Vermont. decided to go the other way and switch to to to to become a Democrat or maybe it was an independent who was going to caucus with the Democrats and so any type of these scenarios can really throw the whole situation into flux and and you don't know it what would Republicans promise a Federman if he were to to come across it now I don't see him actually change putting an R behind his name I think he would become an independent and and caucus with Republicans, perhaps, but it's certainly a possibility, given what he's done over the last couple of years. And an independent who caucuses with Republicans when we're talking about

trying to get Republicans to 50 or 51, that's all that matters. That's right. At the end of the day, it's about leadership elections, right? Yes. What can you, and Fetterman understands this, but yeah, what is the carrot that you dangle in front of Fetterman to maintain control of all those different congressional committees? And those committees, of course, have oversight powers, have appropriations. Of course, the few bills that we do pass out of the Senate, there's trillions of dollars involved in pretty much every single one of those. And so maintaining control over that process, I mean, I would be willing to give

Federman a considerable amount to consider voting with Republicans and have John Thune on it. Now, the weird thing is that he was riding with Biden for a long time in his voting record. but right now, I mean, other than the foreign policy issue, other than the war in Iran, I don't really know what he's with Republicans on. Maybe some of the... Maybe it's just a vibe. I don't know. Maybe some of the manufacturing issues, you know, obviously he comes from a state where that is, you know, a... I mean, that's what he was talking about, specifically at the convention was support for the steel industry in Pennsylvania. But I also think that one of the things, and I talked to Congressman Riley more about this in the interview we heard before our discussion, there is this very likelihood that there will be several new socialists who are serving in Congress next year.

And I wonder if that motivates somebody like a fetterman who simply just can't find any sort of common ground with these Democrats to make a change. Now, I think it'll probably be more likely on the House side than the Senate side. But clearly that's been an issue that has animated the left. And I think we're very likely. Maybe we see it in Michigan. I think, as you indicated in the polling, I think Roger is probably beat back L.C. Ed. But yeah, that seems to be something that would be a significant change for you if you're on Capitol Hill to actually be rubbing shoulders with real-life socialists.

Oh, yeah. It's definitely going to be a rift in both parties. I think how how everybody operates, even just by having one or a few of these big DSA candidates in the U.S. Congress. It's something that everybody has on their radar. And the Republicans are definitely campaigning on that common sense versus communism agenda. Seems like Hakeem Jeffries is sweating a little bit too, right? Yeah. A lot of Dem on Dem violence. A lot of Dem on Dem violence. happens when Democrats feel like they're in a good position for the midterms because most of the time everyone is marches in a very tight formation on that side of the ledger, which means that they're very confident about their chances of taking back the house. I'm very confident in it as well. Luckily, though, I don't think we're going to see a 40-seat swing or anything like that. Why? Because there's just less to play for because of redistricting, right? You're going to see

from now until Kingdom Come or somebody comes and creates a really robust movement, you're going to see shifts be in the, you know, teens or in the single digits every single midterm election because of all this redistricting. But I think it's very interesting to see how many of these people will get in and go the route of either Rashida Talib or Cory Bush versus the route of AOC, right? Because AOC came in as the most notable socialist in the 2018 crop and she was going to be. be this barn burner and this establishment challenger. And very quickly, she built relationships with Democrat leadership.

And I think she is more powerful today than she has ever been because she played the politics right. And where's Cory Bush right now? Cory Bush is sitting at home trying to get back into Congress. You know, I think Rashida Talib is still treated a little bit more at arm's length with a lot of her colleagues, whereas more and more people embrace and endorse AOC. Those people coming into Congress, which way will they go? I'm not quite sure at the moment. I think for sure Hakeem Jeffries would be sweating it out. Abdul Al-Sayed, though, is the, is constantly eschewing the Democrat Socialist of America label.

He's like, I'm not a socialist, I'm not a socialist, I'm not a socialist. Even appearing with Jesse Waters on Fox News. Right. And like, so like I don't think that even the people who are as very sympathetic to that cause, who believe in that ideology, believe it can scale at a state level right now. Right. I mean, it's the Nancy Pelosi famous quote. about AOC's election.

It's like, if this glass of water had a D on it, I can get it elected in that district. Now they're trying to scale it. I don't know if the operation scales. It's going to be a very, very interesting test case. I think we had two test cases beforehand. We had Platner and we had Abdul El Sallied. I think now we really have one big test case of the scalability of the socialist movement. Perhaps you can lump Jackson into that because of how far left he is.

But he also doesn't code. code is far left, right? He codes more like a molten character or an Angus King or someone like that who's very, very far left on all the issues when you actually get down to brass tax, but is not, you know, you don't hear the Soviet anthem playing in the background necessarily when they start speaking. I'm glad you brought up Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez because it would be remiss not to ask you this question as our Maha beat reporter. I've noticed recently that she's trying to make a play for the Maha vote. saying that, no, it's not owned exclusively by RFK Jr. and Republicans. There are some who she wants to try to figure out how to bring into their coalition. So two questions. Number one, do you think she's going to be successful in that by having these conversations or dialogue with them? And then secondly, what kind of role will Maha have in 2026 compared to the influence

and really how I think in many cases help propel Trump to the White House? Well, first, AOC is and has been trying to get back into the Maha health space, which once was years ago a Democrat policy. They were the hippie-esque, sometimes even anti-vaxxers. Those were the Democrats. And the Democrat Party failed on those policies. They could not get them established. And that left a hole for Republicans to come in and take on those policies. And Trump and R of K have helped executed what Maha.

voters want, but as things in the Maha movement start to slow down because they accomplish so much upfront, there is still a lot that they want to accomplish for their voters. That's leaving a gap again in the opposite direction for Democrats to come in and for Democrats like AOC to come in and have a voice in that space. And that's something that Maha activists and influencers and speakers have been warning about for a really long time. And if Republicans want to keep those voters, they really have to continue pushing for those policies. And going into the future and what we're seeing in the midterm, I think a really interesting race to pay attention to is the Iowa gubernatorial race. And it is a state race, but I think it says a lot about the voters in Iowa.

We have Zach Lane running against Democrat Rob Sand. And the Iowa Republicans elected Zach Lane, a farmer in the biggest pesticide state. in the country. And he is anti-pesticide. He is a regenerative farmer. He wants to teach farmers how to run their farms effectively without the use of pesticides. He's big on real food. He's aligned with Cali Means, with Alex Clark, with RFK, all of these big Maha people. And Iowa is the largest use of pesticides in the entire country, has the highest rates of childhood cancer in the entire country. And we saw the farmers elect an anti-pesticide Republican to run their state. So as it, that's, that's the gubernatorial race, but I think it's going to play in a lot to those,

to those congressional seats. Fascinating. Well, thank you for that. I should note that you're also following Iowa quite closely for the Daily Signal. Yes. Appreciate that. Bradley, I'll give you the last word. Victor Davis Hanson said last week, 50-50 on the Senate, 70-30, Democrats take the House? You willing to offer any commentary on Victor's take or your own predictions? Yeah, yeah. I think Victor's about right where I am. I'm a little bit more bullish on the Senate than him. I think a week ago, two weeks ago, I was actually at the 50-50. I think I'm more about 60-40 Republicans keep the Senate. And I'd say 70-30 Democrats take the House because weird things can happen. The problem is that we don't have election day anymore in this country. We have

election three months. And some of my favorite pieces that are written by by conservative journalists is like, hey, if you voted early, this is all the things that you missed. So like, the October surprise, the October surprise matters less and less and less. Nevertheless, who knows what's going to be coming out in the next, you know, two or three weeks before early voting starts. I still give Republicans a chance because now that there's less to play for, right, a scandal in one, two, or three races means that that's the majority. And so that's why I'll give Republicans a strong 30%

on that house. And it's not, you don't have to wait two or three to vote early. Early voting started Friday. You can start now in Virginia, right, right. Vote early, vote often as the president. Oh, my goodness. Virginia is, yeah, one of the worst. Well, the Heritage Foundation came out with its election integrity

scorecard. I don't know that that's one of the metrics they grade the states on. and so many have extended these early voting periods to the point where you're right, news that's late breaking doesn't have nearly the effect that it once did. Yeah, which is why we've talked about these red mirages on the show. Yeah, that's the source of the red mirage. Bradley Devlin, Virginia Grace McKinnon,

thanks so much for joining the Midterm Report. Appreciate your work for the Daily Signal, and you can follow both of them on X. We'll be sure to leave their handles in the show notes. And we appreciate all of our viewers and listeners joining us for today's show. We'll be back next Saturday for another edition.