The Daily Signal - Democrat Defectors Imperil Biden's Future

Episode Date: August 8, 2022

President Joe Biden is confronting a record-low job approval rating and a growing calls from within his own party to abandon a reelection campaign. Last week, congressional Democrats from Minnesota and New York cast doubt on Biden's political future, suggesting it was time for a new generation to step forward. Those public statements came on the heels of Gallup's poll, which put Biden's job approval rating at a personal low 38%. History doesn't bode well for incumbent presidents who face intraparty challenges, according to presidential historian Tevi Troy. His recent Washington Examiner cover story, "Biden faces a mutiny," examined six examples of 20th-century presidents who faced intraparty challengers—all losers. Troy, director of the Presidential Leadership Initiative at the Bipartisan Policy Center and a former senior White House aide, joins "The Daily Signal Podcast" to talk about Biden's future, frustrations plaguing his White House, and interesting tidbits about presidential history.  Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the Daily Signal podcast for Monday, August 8th. I'm Virginia Allen. And I'm Rob Blewey. On today's show, I speak with Teffi Troy, director of the presidential leadership initiative at the Bipartisan Policy Institute, an author of four books on the presidency, including, most recently, Fight House, rivalries in the White House from Truman to Trump. Also, on today's show, we read your letters to the editor and share a little bit of good news to kick off the week. But first, we want to tell you about one of our favorite Daily Signal resources. If you are looking for an easy and entertaining way to keep up with the news that you care about, then you need to subscribe to the Daily Signals YouTube channel. The channel offers interviews with policy experts on the most critical issues and debates America is facing today, as well as short explainer videos that break down complex issues and documentaries that dive deep into the ways that policy actually impacts people.

Go ahead and subscribe to the Daily Signals YouTube channel today. You can search for the channel on your YouTube app or visit YouTube. com slash DailySignal. Now stay tuned for today's show. Coming up next. We are joined on the Daily Signal podcast by Tevi Troy, director of the presidential leadership initiative at the bipartisan policy center. He's also a former senior White House aide and author most recently of Fight House,

rivalries in the White House from Truman to Trump. Tevi, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. I love the show and listen daily. Well, I am fascinated by your work as a presidential historian. The book that I mentioned is just one of you. your most recent books, but you're also a prolific writer and have a couple of recent pieces, including one from the Wall Street Journal and another from the Washington Examiner, that I want

to delve into because I think that these are topics that are in the minds of a lot of Americans right now, particularly as we look to the White House and President Joe Biden's leadership and some big questions that have come up about what his future holds. And so for the Wall Street Journal, you wrote a piece called Biden's Dithering Erks White House staff. And I'd like you to walk us through what some of the issues are there, why there is this frustration, what's growing, and how a lack of decision-making has impeded some of the administration's agenda. Yeah, and let's just say as conservatives, maybe it's not the worst thing if he's indecisive. But, you know, as Americans, we want a president who can make good decisions for the country,

even if we might disagree with, where he's going politically. But there have been some news media articles, and again, this mainstream media, complaining about decisions that are sitting in the White House, some of which, which, like student loans and something on climate change that have sat around for an entire year. And so the staff is concerned that these things go on and on and that Biden has this habit of asking difficult, challenging questions, factual questions. And then if a staffer says, well, I don't know the answer to that, sir, they say, well, let's go back and get the answers before we make the decision.

And it becomes an excuse for not making decisions. And I put out in the Wall Street Journal piece this famous rule from colon, Powell, that you can't make a decision before you have 40% of the information. But if you're waiting until you have more than 70% of the information, you're letting offense decide to find you instead of you defining events. Well, and one of the things that I thought was interesting is you take us back to something that Biden himself wrote about his experiences serving as vice president under the Barack Obama administration.

And at a time when he was critical of Obama for sometimes having a lack of decision. So what was that dynamic like? Yeah, it's a good question. In the title of the piece, which I did not choose, the word dithering refers to a comment that former Vice President Dick Cheney made about Obama, who was sometimes slow to make decisions. And Biden in his memoir, which is very complimentary of Obama, as he would imagine, has one minor criticism is about sometimes decisions wouldn't get made in a timely manner. So Biden seemed to be saying you need to make decisions quickly in the White House, and then he gets to the White House.

And to be fair, he was more decisive in the earlier months. And he seems perhaps because of the weight of the presidency to have slowed down his decision-making process. And I understand it. With the weight of the world on you, you sometimes think more deliberately about these things. But at the end of the day, you have to make decisions. That's what a president does. And so it's an interesting dynamic that he criticized Obama for not being decisive. and now as president, he has some issues with decision-making himself.

Do you think his indecisiveness is contributing to the historically low poll numbers that he's experiencing? Actually, I think it's the historically low poll numbers that make him wonder about his decisions and slow down his ability to choose because he wonders about what the implications will be for him politically. So I wonder if it's the poll numbers that drive the indecision around the other way around. In fact, I say in the journal piece that, he made a couple of early decisions, for example, on Afghanistan that did not turn out so well. And so now maybe he's being a little more careful in his decisions, but you just can't overdo it. Well, I do want to get to the future of Biden's tenure in the White House and what it might mean in the second term.

But before I do so, I'd like you to put on your presidential historian hat. As I mentioned, you've written several books about past presidents. Who were some of the best presidents when it came to making decisions? Yeah, and this Wall Street Journal piece, I intentionally point to death. Democrats who were good at making decisions because I thought it would be more likely that Biden would listen to advice if it's coming from previous Democrats. And Franklin Roosevelt was just a master at making decisions. In fact, his wife told the journalist John Gunther once, the president doesn't think he decides, which I thought was a great encapsulation of FDR's method. And then Harry

Truman, I argue in the piece, had to make more tough decisions per year of presidency, perhaps than any other president, including about dropping the atomic bomb on Japan, which is a weapon he hadn't even heard of when he was vice president, whether to recognize Israel in the face of disagreements from his advisors, whether to pursue the Berlin airlift, which was fraught with peril and a necessary decision, but a tough one, and then what to do about Korea, whether defend Korea from the North Korean invasion, and then what to do about MacArthur, who was popular, but also unmanageable as a general. So he had some really great. tough decisions and he was willing to make him. And I argue in the piece that Lyndon Johnson,

who had his own decision-making problems with Vietnam, marveled at Truman's ability to make decisions and then move on, which I think is the essence of decision-making with a great leader. Well, one of the biggest decisions that President Biden will have to make is whether or not to pursue a second term. And as we've seen just in recent days, there were members of his own party who were suggesting that they need a newer generation of leadership to step forward. You have a cover story in the Washington Examiner, Biden faces a mutiny. Tell us about the decision that he needs to make in this particular case and some of the historical facts that you brought to light about what it might mean if he does face an inter-parties challenge. Yeah, we've seen some Democrats making

quiet moves, although in the case of Gavin Newsom, the governor of California, not so quiet moves that seem to suggest that they're positioning themselves for a run in 2024. And so I looked at the history of people who challenged an incumbent president from within the party, and I found six major instances since the 20th century began. And in all of those cases I found, and we could talk about the individual ones, but in all of those cases, I found that the challenger did not win the nomination and did not become president in that cycle. And the incumbent president, as a result of either the challenge itself or the fact that the challenge revealed weakness, the incumbent president in all six cases did not win election a second time.

Two of them, Truman and Johnson stepped down and four of them lost their re-election efforts. I think it would be helpful to walk through in some detail, maybe not all of the six, but pick a couple. Let's start with the most recent in 1992. And tell us what happened there in the case of George H.W. Bush, who is the incumbent president and Pat Buchanan. Yeah, and I would just say people should get the print edition of the Washington Examiner because it has a terrific chart showing each. each one of these, who the challenger was, who the incumbent was, and what happened.

In this particular case, which interestingly is the last time it happened, Pat Buchanan challenges George H.W. Bush with, I would say, kind of a Trumpy-type campaign talking about trade and immigration. And Bush was kind of coming down off a high after the first Gulf War, where his approval rating was in the high 80s. But then it dropped. There was a recession plaguing the country. And Buchanan, challenges Bush with a bunch of hard-hitting ads and a lot of hard-hitting rhetoric in the New Hampshire primary. It gets 38% of the vote, which was a shocking total. He did not win, but it revealed a weakness that Bush had within his own party. But the Bush people did push back with their own

hard-hitting ads. Buchanan gets a speaking spot at the Republican Convention, which was a very well-known and long-remembered speech. And Bush loses his reelection effort to Bill Clinton. And Bill Clinton makes some of the same arguments against Bush that Buchanan had already tried out in his efforts against Bush. And then in 1980, of course, you have Jimmy Carter, who's the incumbent president facing a challenge from Senator Ted Kennedy. That also had a high drama at the convention. Walk us through what happened in that particular case. Yeah, this one was a particularly nasty one. Ted Kennedy runs against Jimmy Carter from the left. and Carter is besieged by all kinds of problems, including a recession and energy crisis, inflation, and then later the Iran hostage crisis.

And Kennedy is unrelenting in his attacks on Carter. And then even at the convention, once it's clear that Kennedy has no shot to win and that Carter will be the nominee, his people continue to press and hold up the convention plan, which is carefully, carefully planned out so that you get the maximum of the primetime TV minutes. And there's almost a fistfight on the floor over some of the Kennedy people's efforts to slow down things. And then later Kennedy himself, while on the stage, carefully and obviously avoids Carter when Carter is trying to do the raised hand in the air gesture to show unity. And Kennedy pointedly will not do it. And it's an awkward and embarrassing moment. You also note that,

Many of these intra-party challenges happen between the years of 1968 and 1992. And over the course of the last three decades, there hasn't been nearly the appetite to do so. Do you think that might change in 2024? Yeah, in fact, that's one of the reasons I wrote this piece for the examiner. Look, that period of 68 to 92, especially the first 12 years, was a period of great tumult. There was economic uncertainty. We weren't sure where things were going in. war, we'd had a rash of assassinations in the 1960s. America seemed to have been knocked off

its moorings. And I think that period of tumult is what contributed to some of the intra-party challenges. Now, things did calm down in the country, especially in the period for the 90s, for example. And also, I think this message got absorbed that if you're going to challenge your incumbent president from the flank of the party, the party is probably going to look at the party. The party is probably going to lose in the next presidential election, and you will be blamed for it, and you probably won't even win the nomination to begin with. So it's a very low-reward, high-risk strategy, and smart politicians try to avoid it. So I think that's why we've seen fewer of these intra-party challenges over the last three decades. But I think the combination of Biden's low approval ratings,

the many challenges the country is facing, and the fact that, you know, people don't always remember the lessons of history may make this year. you're ripe for one of those intra-party challenges. It's also interesting that it's not just Biden's approval ratings with, with independence or Republicans, which obviously are low, but Democrats themselves are lower than, say, in comparison to where George W. Bush was heading into 2004 or where Donald Trump was heading into 2020. What do you make of this phenomenon?

Because in recent history, it seems, and I imagine the same was true with Barack Obama as he was heading into his reelection in 2012. They were able to solidify a lot of support within their party, and Biden has not. Yeah, these days when presidents seem to be going for the 50.1 strategy, meaning shore up your base and get enough of the middle to get over the top, you really need to keep your party's base. And the polls reveal that a large percentage of Democrats, even a majority, do not want Biden to run again, which is worrisome. Now, that doesn't mean that he wouldn't get the majority of Democratic support if he did become. the nominee, but it does indicate that there's some weakness in the base. Debbie, I'd like to ask about some of the previous work you've done.

Your most recent book is Fight House rivalries in the White House from Truman to Trump. Bring us up to date as to how Biden might fit into a scenario. Is this White House as tumultuous as the Trump White House was? We're just not hearing about it. Or is it a well-oiled machine that does not necessarily have the types of rivalries you've studied in the past? Well, it is true that it is a less tumultuous White House and the Trump White House, but that's kind of a low bar. We also, we don't hear about it quite as much because I think the media kind of reveled in reporting every infight and every disagreement within the Trump White House.

But I also think that the Biden team has a plan for really narrowly controlling information and controlling the flow of decisions and keeping it within a very, very tight group that does, lead to less infighting in cases, but it also sometimes leads to a bubble mentality where you're not getting outside information. And then the other thing I would say is that there's clearly tumult within the vice president Harris staff, both within her staff and with her and the rest of the White House. So it's not like this White House is completely devoid of infighting, but there is probably less of it and we're hearing about it less. You know, one of the interesting things that happened just recently was the White House Communications Director, Kate Bettingfield, had announced that she was leaving and then at the 11th hour decided to stay, which is something that's quite rare in our day and age. Any insight as to what might have happened there and what that might signal for Biden's presidency? Yeah, I thought that story was fascinating and I did look into it.

It is incredibly rare that you have someone announce that they're leaving and then stay on. I think there's a combination of factors, one, from her perspective, you don't get that many chances to be at this senior level in the White House, and you don't give it up lightly. So maybe she was having some buyer's remorse about moving on. And then I think that the Biden administration didn't necessarily want to leave, lose a prominent woman in a spot as valued as the communications director. And so I think there are a couple of factors leading to her kind of changed decision, but I completely agree with you that you don't see this happen often. In fact, more likely is there was

a situation in the Obama White House. I love this story where Christina Romer, who was the chairman of the economic advisors, kind of expressed some concerns about maybe she wasn't happy in her job, maybe people were listening to her. And within a day, the Obama communications team had prepared the press release announcing her departure, which is not exactly what she intended. I think she kind of wanted to be shored up and told that things were going great. And instead, she was kind of ushered out the door. So I think once you start to signal you're heading out of the door, I think there's often an effort to push you the rest of the way.

Very interesting indeed. You've also studied popular culture in the White House. You have a previous book, which you wrote called What Jefferson Red, Ike watched, and Obama tweeted 200 years of popular culture in the White House. I'd just like you to share with us. What inspires you to study these presidential histories? And do you have any sense of how this particular White House views popular culture and maybe has shaped President Biden's opinions on certain issues?

Yeah, I just find presidents fascinating. I've loved them since I was a kid. I got a PhD in presidential history. Then I had the pleasure and honor of a lifetime to work in the White House. So I just like sharing all these great stories about the White House. And with each of my books, and I appreciate you mentioning them, I try to find an aspect of White House life that nobody has written about previously and then really dive into that. So that's why I did the pop culture thing. That's why I did the infighting. I also did a book

on disasters and how presidents have handled them and then one on intellectuals who've served in the White House. And then in terms of pop culture, look, the White House, when it's a Democratic White House, obviously gets a big boost from Democratic entertainers. But it's really hard to see what Biden's interests are in terms of pop culture. I've looked into this issue, and he does seem to like Irish poetry. I don't really have a good sense of what songs he likes or certainly not popular songs. Movies he's kind of quiet about it. It's just, it's a little strange how little we know about Biden's pop culture interests.

Particularly somebody who spent so much of his life in the public spotlight. You know, being elected as a U.S. senator at the age of 29, even before, you know, he was eligible to serve. He had his birthday in between there. but it is truly fascinating that it's not discussed or talked about nearly as much as previous presidents certainly have. Tevi, as we wrap up here, I'd like you to tell our listeners a little bit more about the presidential leadership initiative that you direct at the Bipartisan Policy Center and some of the work that you do there. Yeah, and I do this, as you know, I'm a conservative. I've worked for Republican administrations, but I'm interested in this issue of presidential leadership. And I thought that from the bipartisan policy center, I could talk to both parties and across the

spectrum about this important issue of the presidency and maintaining the power and majesty of the presidency because the presidency is one of our few shared institutions now you talked about pop culture rob and we're now in this world of narrow casting where there's no one show that everybody watches there's no one type of music that everybody listens to but everybody knows who the president is and i think the president can be a beacon for freedom and help pushing against either authoritarianism on the right or socialism on the left, and is also a beacon for people around the world who look to America as a place that promotes freedom. So I really want to promote the presidency as the appropriate institution that really promotes American democracy and American freedom, and I want to

maintain those things. So that's what I write about from that perch, and I've written a number of pieces, including the one you mentioned in the Wall Street Journal, of presidential leadership. and leadership, I think, is an essential thing to study when it comes to the president. And I think it has applicability in many other fields, including in business and the nonprofit world. I think many people can learn leadership lessons from what has happened and what has gone right at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and also what has gone wrong. Okay, I can't let you go without asking a baseball question. You and I are both big baseball fans. I, of course, a long-struggling Pittsburgh Pirates fan.

But we just had this huge seismic trade deadline in which Juan Soto left the Washington Nationals for the San Diego Padres, really shaping up for a strong pennant race. Obviously, the playoffs are expanded this year. Any predictions on what to see here as we head down to the home stretch of the baseball season? Yeah, I think the Padres now have a very dangerous lineup going into October. I think it's a little top-heavy. I don't know where they go after four and five in the lineup, but that first couple of people in it. Remember, they also got Josh Bell from the Nationals.

There's a bit of a murderer's row in the first half of the lineup. I think the Yankees improve themselves a little bit. I think they made marginal improvements. I think the Dodgers have been on such a tear. They didn't feel like they needed to do much at all. And I'm just not sure about the Astros. Obviously, a very good team. But, you know, bringing in a new catcher at this point,

I'm not sure what's the best move with Christian Vasquez. But I think it's set up for a really interesting October. And I just think the way that baseball is set up, where you've got some real super teams, and then you've got a lot of teams on the outside looking in. Makes for a strange October, but there's definitely three or four teams to watch, including now the Padres,

but also the Dodgers, Astros, Yankees, and Mets, I think would be the five teams to look at. It's certainly going to make for an exciting fall. And you wrote an excellent piece at the start of the season about baseball and we'll make sure that we leave a link to it in the transcript and the show notes as well. Tevi Troy, thank you so much for being with the Daily Signal podcast today. We enjoyed the interview. Thanks so much. Always loved the show. The Heritage Foundation takes the field on offense with their young leaders program.

I'm Evelyn Homily from Hillsdale College. I'm Harrison Stewart from the University of Virginia. I'm a journalism intern with the Daily Signal. I'm a digital productions intern and communications. For spring, summer, and fall semesters, the Heritage Foundation hosts undergraduate and postgraduate Interns right here in the nation's capital to train our country's future conservative leaders. As a daily signal intern, I've had the opportunity to cover exciting events here in D.C. And work in a fast-paced environment with some of the conservative movement's best journalists. In YLP, interns are on the cutting edge of the conservative movement, attending exclusive briefings from heritage experts, members of Congress, and movement leaders fighting for the fate of our country. It's been exciting connecting with big names in the political world and better understanding our nation's greatest threat.

If you want to go on offense with other passionate, dedicated conservatives, go to heritage.org slash intern to learn more about the young leaders program. Thanks for sending us your letters to the editor. Each Monday, we feature our favorites on this show. Virginia, who's up first? In response to Kelsey Bowler's piece, how gender ideology cost a Chicago mother custody of her child, Monica writes,

I felt such compassion for Jeanette Cooper while reading the story about losing custody of her only child. She is but one of many parents whose lives have been dramatically altered by what is shaping up to be a weaponized fad. This action on the part of the court system in Chicago fails to respect the importance of Jeanette's role as a parent. This is also an ill-advised method of supporting a child of any gender. Bless you, Jeanette Cooper, I pray for you and your child, and hope that others will join me in asking for God's help. to end this nightmare. And in response to Victor Davis Hansen's commentary, the Ukrainian Verdun, Josh writes, well, there is that chance that this Ukrainian conflict will live on without end.

Giving up and giving in is not an option. Where will it stop if Putin is emboldened to just march on? If we allow him to march on and take what he wants, we might as well hand him the keys to New York City and get it over with. The fact of the matter is we are dealing with one individual, one madman, and once his life comes to an end, so will this quest to grab real estate. Rush is not all in on this action, that said, if you think his nukes are a concern, if Iran gets nukes, they will use it, period. With that thought, we had better keep the pressure on in Ukraine. Your letter could be featured on next week's show,

so send us a letter at Letters at DailySignal.com. As I approached the walkway from around the back of the building, They had taken crowbars to almost all of our windows, two of our doors, and just shattered all of the glass. That's the voice of Susan Campbell, Executive Director of Blue Ridge Pregnancy Center. In the early hours after Roe v. Wade was overturned, vandals, smash windows, and spray-painted threatening messages outside the center. I'm Virginia Allen. The Daily Signal has just released a documentary about what happened. to the Blue Ridge Pregnancy Center.

Plus, we take a deep dive into the violence and attacks against crisis pregnancy centers across the country. Make sure that you're subscribed to the Daily Signal's YouTube channel so you can watch the new documentary and never miss our new content. Bernadette, you are back with us today. This is your final week with us as a Daily Signal intern to share some good news. So without further ado, over to you. Randy and Evelyn James founded a home for expecting mothers and their children.

beginning in Virginia after losing their sixth child, Paul. Evelyn had been advised to have an abortion when she was pregnant with Paul, but she refused and welcomed Paul into the world, even though his life outside the womb would be shorter than a day. Paul's short life inspired his parents to establish this nonprofit foundation to support families in need. In an interview on Fox and Friends, two mothers share just how important that Paul Stephan home has been for their lives and their children's lives.

Danielle Nicholson was 20 years old when she found out she was expecting, and she felt so alone until she found out about the Paul Stephan Foundation and was welcomed into a home. And my experience there has changed my life in the most amazing ways. She thanks the Paul Stefan Foundation for their support and assistance in forming her into the mother she wanted to be. Becoming a new mom was really scary, but because of the Paul Stefan home and the love that they have and the mission that they have. and because the Lord is the center of their mission, and they function only through the love of Christ, I am who I am today.

Danielle was a resident in the home for five years and is now a family service specialist. Brooke Cummings is a current resident of the home who welcomed her twin boys a few months ago, and she shares her experience. Well, since I've been at the Paul Stevin Foundation, I've felt empowered to be the mother that God had always wanted me to be,

and the people here have shown me so much love and support, and they have just wrapped their arms around me since I first walked through the doors, and they have empowered me and supported me to want to reach for new goals and to provide everything. They have helped me provide everything for my children and empowered me and always encourage me to be the mother

and the woman that I always wanted to be and that God always wanted me to be, and I'm very grateful that they have supported me all along this journey, journey. It is amazing to see a foundation on the ground, truly making a difference and living out what it means to be pro-life. That was just two of the countless women who have been helped by the Paul Stephan Foundation. Bernadette, thank you so much for sharing that little bit of good news to kick off our Monday. We're going to leave it there for today. You can find the Daily Signal podcast on the Rikishay Audio Network. All of our shows can be found at dailysignal.com

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