The Daily Signal - First Intel Reports Are ‘Almost Always Wrong.’ That Same Is True of Iran Strike | Victoria Coates

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Starting point is 00:00:25 We'd love to talk. Business. I think one thing that certainly on the minds of a lot of Americans, especially immediately after the attack, is could this lead to an activation of Iranian terrorist cells, sleeper cells in the United States? What do we know? What intelligence do we have, if any, on that threat? What we know is it's real. We know their home base is Venezuela with a little bit in Cuba. Well, I am so pleased to welcome Victoria Coates back to the show. Victoria, you formerly, of course, serves in the Trump administration as Deputy Nuff.

Starting point is 00:01:00 National Security Advisor and currently now work at the Heritage Foundation as vice president of the Institute, the Davis Institute for Foreign Policy and National Security. Thank you so much for taking the time to talk about Iran. There's a little bit of news going on right now. Just a hair. Just a hair of news. Well, we were talking a moment ago about timing. The timing of this was interesting came as a surprise to many of the folks in the national security community. Saturday night, President Trump took to social media and said the U.S. and just carried out massive strikes on three of Iran's nuclear sites. Why did the president choose to carry this strike out now? Well, thank you for having me, Virginia. It's always good to be with you. I think what drove the president's decision making

Starting point is 00:01:44 was his feeling that everything Iran was doing was accelerating their progress toward a nuclear weapon. And he has said for more than 10 years, that is his red line, that Iran, is not to get a nuclear weapon. And then the Iran he inherited in January of 2021 is very different, or 2020, 2025. Sorry. Time is weird these days. It's turning into dog years. But the Iran he inherited in January of 2025 is very different than the one he handed over in January of 2021. And the progress that has gone on in that nuclear program over the four years of the Biden administration is deeply concerning and should be worrisome to anyone who understands that a nuclear bomb in the hands of the Iranian regime is, as President Trump says, intolerable. So I think he took time to

Starting point is 00:02:39 study the situation over the course of the spring. He took time to try to get to a diplomatic resolution to this. He did everything by the book, writing a letter to the Supreme Leader, sending top person Steve Whitkoff to try to engage with the Iranians, doing an outline of a deal. with no enrichment, but with the civil nuclear program. And the Iranians just kept saying no. And I think he realized, particularly after the successful air operations were started by Israel, that this was a chance to make good on that pledge that they wouldn't get a nuclear weapon. And diplomacy is great.

Starting point is 00:03:16 We all want to see a diplomatic solution. But the action he took is the only thing that would actually ensure that, that doesn't depend on the good faith of the Iranian rule. regime, which doesn't have any good day. Well, it seems to have worked, at least right now, we see that that ceasefire between Israel and Iran is holding. We know from at least initial reports that there was, at a minimum, damage done to these facilities. But we've seen, of course, a lot of mixed reporting, a little bit of mixed reporting on the extent of that damage. The president, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsteth, has really pushed back on reporting that we've

Starting point is 00:03:52 internal outlets like CNN and the New York Times for reporting that, you know, maybe the facilities were only damaged in a way that would set Iran's nuclear program back a couple months. And that reporting stemmed from a leaked report out of an arm of the Pentagon. What do we know so far about the extent of the damage? Well, and this was really outrageous. So when you have an episode like this, like the elimination of Qasem Soleimani, or like the story. strikes on Iran, the you get, you wait for these initial reports. They're almost always wrong. I remember any number of occasions of handing over, you know, this is the preliminary report. It's what we have now. It's in real time. It's probably wrong. But it gives principles, you know,

Starting point is 00:04:41 a sense of what's happening. And particularly when you have them that are expressed with low confidence, which this one was, you know, it's a snapshot on time, essentially, of, of where the knowledge was at that time. And it was shared with Congress, which, you know, I really support the president consulting with Congress, keeping Congress informed. They need to be. But at the same time, if they're immediately going to leak something selectively, who knows what else was in that briefing packet that might have contradicted this. But this would look, made the president look bad, made the strike look bad. And so they were, they were in a race to be wrong because they could discredit President Trump. And so it's really outrageous. It's sort of

Starting point is 00:05:28 unfortunate that it's gotten as much kind of legs as it has because everything else that's coming out suggests that the strike was a huge success and may have set them back as much as 10, 15 years. And that the centrifuges from the kind of bomb that General Kane described in the most recent Pentagon Press Briefing, you know, they developed that bomb specially for this purpose. It's incredible. That's the first time we've done that since the atomic bombs that ended World War II. They custom-built this ordinance, I guess, is the best word for it, that could specifically damage the centrifuges because they're very sensitive. And if you can take them offline, they can't spin no more enriched uranium. That's your path. So an extraordinary mission in terms of

Starting point is 00:06:18 the ingenuity to develop the bomb, the skill of the pilots who executed the strike, and then ultimately the decision-making of the president and the Secretary of Defense. And that is the story that should be told and a credit to our military across the board. The American people should be proud of it, not wondering if it was effective or not. Yeah. So that's interesting to hear you talk about in some ways how normal it is that you sort of have these initial reports that share, hey, this is what we think we know, but we're not sure. I mean, even speaking to your time, as Deputy National Security Advisor to the president, were you drafting some of those types of reports?

Starting point is 00:07:00 No, I mean, we weren't producers of intelligence, but we were consumers on the National Security Council staff. So, I mean, the Soleimani night is case in point. You know, we were all in the sit room. The president was down in Marilago, it's my recollection. And we could hear the chairman, then Chairman Millie briefing the president, strike was successful. We went back to our offices. One kind of funny thing about the NSC is you weren't supposed to have Twitter on your computers, but I had been in strategic communications. And so I had Twitter and they hadn't taken it away.

Starting point is 00:07:38 So everybody crowded into my office and we're watching the Twitter. And the preliminary reports start and some folks in think tanks in Washington who should have known better, definitively said this couldn't possibly be Soleimani. Wow. And we're like, it's so you can see the disinformation. You know, there's a strike, something happens, people start to try to figure out what's going on. That's a really fluid time.

Starting point is 00:08:05 And it's irresponsible to release some of that stuff. Even when it is coming from the intelligence community, that's not what it's designed for. You know, they have to do it. This is our best guess at this moment. but almost always. I can't think of a time when it hasn't been the case that additional information has radically changed that picture. So that's why this was such a disservice, such a, you know, I don't have high hopes for CNN

Starting point is 00:08:30 or the New York Times, but just a really shoddy thing to do to the American people. Yeah. So then in a situation like this with a mission that was this big carried out, how long do you think it'll take before we have some more definitive reports that are. public, obviously there's likely going to be some information that's not released to the public that's classified. But what is the timeline that we're looking at to where we can be saying, okay, we know X, Y, and Z, especially given the fact that Iran is certainly not going to release any information to us. They're having their own information problems, apparently. But I think

Starting point is 00:09:06 it probably is going to be a couple of weeks. Okay. You know, there's supposed to be some additional CIA reporting today. There is going to be a classified briefing to Congress this afternoon. which will probably leak, which they know. And the president has said, we're going to have to restrict the information, which is a shame because Congress needs that information. And this is a constant tug of war that, you know, they want the information, they need the information, but then they leak. Yeah. And it's a really unfortunate situation. In regards to the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, what is your optimism level that that is going to hold permanently? It's growing with each day that it holds. I think Israel has achieved their war aims

Starting point is 00:09:56 that they had gotten a lot of the missiles, some of the secondary nuclear sites, some of the missile production sites, some of the missile launchers, all of these things, they'd taken out at something like 112 generals, a number of nuclear scientists. So they had very targeted information on where these individuals were, and I would say with very little collateral loss of life. They did this very precisely, and the Iranian people were not their target. So that has been largely done. And the strikes by the United States were kind of the final salvo. And they had a couple of days of what you might call clean up, but they're done. You know, there's a limit to what you can do with their strikes, the important thing there, though, is that the Iranians know that both the Israelis and the

Starting point is 00:10:51 Americans can come back anytime. They have no defenses. They have no visibility. They don't really have a functioning air force at this point. So anytime President Trump thinks, well, maybe we didn't do enough, or Prime Minister Netanyahu says, looks like they're massing some missiles over there. there's nothing stopping them from going back. So that is probably the greatest leverage that Israel and the United States have now. If there is any future negotiation, they should be essentially declaring terms. This shouldn't be some kind of debate with Iran. Iran lost this conflict. Does Iran know that it lost the conflict? Does the regime know? What's running through their head right now? They have to know. They do know, but they are trying to put on a theater performance for their people. So you have the Supreme Leader going on X and declaring victory and that the retaliatory strike that they launched toward Al-Odide Air Base in Qatar was some great success. In fact, it was utterly meaningless. I mean, it was an annoyance to the Qataris who don't like being shelled.

Starting point is 00:12:03 but our patriots at El Adid performed brilliantly. It was actually the biggest patriot exercise we've ever had. So in a way, it was useful training, although those interceptors are very expensive. So a little bit of a tradeoff there, but they proved how effective they were. So predictions that particularly Al-O-Did was vulnerable to Iranian strikes were not correct. We are perfectly capable of protecting Al-O-Deed with what. what is on the ground. And on top of that, we now have, I believe,

Starting point is 00:12:37 three aircraft carrier groups in the region between the Mediterranean and the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. So we have a tremendous number of assets. I know that was very important to the president and the secretary that every American head be protected from possible Iranian retaliation. And they carried that off as well as the original strike

Starting point is 00:12:58 masterfully. Yeah. Is Iran's regime stable right now? I mean, that was one of the big question following this? Is the regime going to falls? They're going to be a change of hands. It looks like right now it's stable, but what are you saying? They're not acting very stable, actually. They're acting like they're in fear of their lives. And so there is unfortunately a very repressive crackdown going on. They're very concerned that the Iranian people will see their weakness. So I think that is

Starting point is 00:13:25 some of the posturing by the Supreme leaders declaring this a great victory. I'm old enough to remember the invasion of Iraq. And there was a spokesman for Saddam Hussein who became named by Baghdad Bob. And literally, as the Americans were rolling in, he was saying, everything's fine, everything's fine, we're in control. I mean, that's what it sounds like. And they keep threatening these massive retaliations and they keep not coming. You know, and it's a little bit like the boy who cried wolf. Eventually, your people are going to see through you and that you're lying. And so that is a question for the Iranian people. I think President Trump has spoken very highly of them. He has mused publicly. You know, if the regime can't make Iran great again, why not have

Starting point is 00:14:11 regime change? And the regime has resolutely refused to make Iran great again. It's an incredible country. It has everything. There's no reason. It is not hugely prosperous with wonderful people and ancient history. And they've just squandered it. So, So that, you know, from my perspective, it would not be a bad thing if the Iranian people made that choice, but it's not something that is the mission of the United States here. Yeah. In speaking of that, you know, possible threats that Iran is making of further retaliation, I think one thing that certainly on the minds of a lot of Americans, especially immediately after the attack, is could this lead to an activation of Iranian terrorist cells, sleeper cells in the United States? States. What do we know? What intelligence do we have, if any, on that threat? What we know is it's real. And we hosted the Argentinian foreign minister here at Heritage earlier this week. There have been two significant Hezbollah attacks on Argentina,

Starting point is 00:15:14 the Jewish Center in, I believe, 94. And then there was an embassy bombing as well. So they have personally suffered from Iranian proxy terrorist cells in the Western Hemisphere. So we know this exists. We know their home base is Venezuela with a little bit in Cuba. And we know that some 1,500 Iranian nationals, some of them on terrorist watch lists, were apprehended at the border during the Biden administration and released into the country, which is just mind-boggling to me that you would apprehend an Iranian national of whatever stripe, let alone one on the terrorist watch list and your solution is to release them into the country. That is just an illustration of how crazy things were during the Biden administration. And unfortunately, it means there are probably

Starting point is 00:16:07 more than that 1,500 that are present in the United States. We know from more recent attacks, the attempted assassination of the Saudi ambassador to the United States in 2011, the attempt to assassinate a dissident in New York just a couple years ago. These are real things that they are plotting. And sometimes they use Iranian nationals and sometimes they use essentially hitmen to try to carry these things out. So it is real. And I was pleased to hear that Cash Patel, the director of the FBI, was actually repositioning some agents who had been on this file, who had been moved onto the border and immigration file, back onto the Iran file to keep a very close eye on what's happening. The previous administration neglected it entirely. So that's really positive news. And the other thing

Starting point is 00:17:04 is the Iranians know that this would be highly escalatory. And when they took the strike on al-Adid, which is apparently telegraphed to both the Americans and the Qataris ahead of time, they used the word proportionate, that we're going to have a proportionate response, which means non-escalatory. We're sort of going to do to you what you did to us and then we can call it a day. And that appears to be what happened. If they carried out an attack directly on American civilians, on American soil, they would cease to exist. And the president sent that message very clearly as well when he said, I'm not going to take out the Supreme Leader yet. Yeah. But I could. So the Ayatollah Kamenei is alive at the pleasure of the American president, which he knows. Yeah. Wow.

Starting point is 00:17:50 fascinating. It's been interesting to see ICE agents really specifically making arrests of Iranian nationals that are in the country illegally. And that's interesting to hear that that breakdown, but makes sense that the warning signs have been sent to the Iranian regime. In regards to what happens next, are there certain steps that the term administration needs to be taking? Because in all likelihood, Iran is not going to throw up its hands and say, oh, well, we tried to build a nuclear weapon. And, you know, at didn't work. There's going to be some resurgence of effort on that front. So what does the administration need to do to prevent that or guard against it? I think, I mean, they need to continue on the way they've started, which is with this very definitive, strong show of force, the Iranians know what the Americans can do. That was an open question three weeks ago. They didn't know what the Israelis could do and they didn't know what the Americans could do. Now they know. And they, they know that that means they can be decimated at any time. So that's that's in a very important step towards shifting the paradigm of any future negotiations, which in the past have been the Iranians

Starting point is 00:19:05 posturing so that we have to tempt them to the negotiating table with concessions, sanctions relief, cash, whatever, release of prisoners. But that has shifted. And I think they should be feeling, And I think the president signaled this when he was asked about it at the NATO summit and said, I don't know that we need to negotiate. I think the signal there is they've lost. So we're going to tell them, you know, sign a piece of paper, he said, but we're going to write the words on the paper and hand it to them. That's what they need to hear. That's their message.

Starting point is 00:19:40 And then we need to make very clear to them, we're going to watch them like hawks. And they now know the extent of Israeli penetration of Iran. that the Israelis are essentially moving on the ground as well as in the air with impunity. They can't do anything about it. So we will be watching ever more closely any activity that is reconstituting both the missile program and the nuclear program and that we have, we're going to reserve the right to go back in and take it out if they're stupid enough to build it. A last question before I let you go.

Starting point is 00:20:15 we've seen some comments made from the administration regarding the possibility that this will lead to additional nations joining the Abraham Accords. What would we be looking at there? Are there nations that you're watching to see if, you know, out of this conflict, they decide we kind of want to be on the side of Israel. Let's go ahead and form, you know, an official alliance there. That was one of the most reassuring things about this whole episode was the degree to which the, region both tacitly and overtly supported Israel's action against Iran. There were a couple of press statements, but in a material sense, the entire region allowed Israel to use their airspace. They even participated in shooting down Iranian projectiles when they were going through the airspace. And when there was the attack on Qatar, everybody came out, including the Palestinian authorities,

Starting point is 00:21:15 and condemned the Iranians. I mean, nobody had anything nice to say about them. And historically, you might think, well, the Arabs aren't Persians. They're not natural allies of the Iranians, but they might take advantage of this as an excuse to attack Israel. None of that, not even close to the opposite, was the case. And when Israel reopened its airspace, the first airline to go back to Ben-Gurian was Air Dubai. So the fastest, easiest, nicest way to get to Israel right now is through UAE, which is pretty amazing. So that's the accords endured.

Starting point is 00:21:56 There wasn't any backsliding. There was unity against Iran. Iran is the one that's isolated. So the countries I'd be looking at, there's very interesting discussion going on with both Syria and Lebanon. So some agreement could be coming with both those neighbors of Israel, which would be great. Everybody's looking to Saudi Arabia. There was some interesting reporting in the Wall Street Journal

Starting point is 00:22:20 over the last couple of days about MBS's interest in this. So the Crown Prince's interest, so that conversation can be restarted. And, you know, my hope is, and I've written about this a couple of times, that in a couple of years we're sitting here talking about a Cyrus accord, named for Cyrus the Great, the ancient emperor of Persia who saved the Jewish people

Starting point is 00:22:44 between a modern Iran and a modern Israel. So I think that is not out of the question down the road. I look forward to having that conversation with you. Victoria Coates, thank you for your time. Thank you, Virgin.

The Daily Signal - First Intel Reports Are ‘Almost Always Wrong.’ That Same Is True of Iran Strike | Victoria Coates

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