The Daily Signal - How Does UK View America’s Tumultuous Political Season?

Episode Date: July 24, 2024

Within less than two weeks, the world has watched as former President Donald Trump was almost assassinated, President Joe Biden announced he is stepping out of the race, and Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the leading choice for the Democratic Party nominee.  From within the U.S., it feels like a tumultuous time in American politics. But how is the world, and specifically the U.K., viewing “the land of the free and home of the brave” right now?  The U.K. is “very concerned” by recent events in America, Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent and a senior fellow at the Legatum Institute, says.  “The attempted assassination of Donald Trump was seen as a symbol of a country that is very divided and polarized,” according to Goodwin. “There's an awareness that the rhetoric has become extreme, not just, around the former president, but also on the left of American politics.”  Goodwin joins “The Daily Signal Podcast” to discuss European’s views of America’s fraught election cycle, and to discuss the results of the U.K. recent election that resulted in the worst-ever election defeat for Britain’s Conservative Party.  Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the Daily Signal podcast for Wednesday, July 24th. I'm Virginia Allen. We have a major election right around the corner here in the U.S., but in the U.K., they have just had a very significant election. In fact, their conservative party just suffered its worst ever election defeat. What happened? I'm joined on the show today by Professor Matthew Goodwin. We discuss the shifts in UK politics and how the Labor Party is going to take the nation forward. We also talk about what Brits think about what's happening in the U.S. right now and how the United Kingdom is viewing President Joe Biden stepping out of the race and Kamala Harris likely being the Democrat nominee. Stay tuned for my conversation with Matthew Goodwin after this. Hey, it's Rob Lewy from The Daily Signal.

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and join thousands of informed conservatives who rely on the daily signal to cut through the noise and get the truth. Well, it's my pleasure today to be joined by Professor Matthew Goodwin. Professor Goodwin is a professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent and a senior fellow at the Legatum Institute. And he also has his own substack called the Matthew Goodwin substack. If you want to keep track of everything happening in the UK from a conservative political lens, check out that substack.

Thank you so much Professor Goodwin for being here today. I really appreciate your time. Thank you for inviting me. And can I thank the Heritage Foundation for a wonderful welcome. Absolutely. We're excited for the event that you have here. There is no shortage of things to talk about on the U.S. side or the U.K. side. It feels like we can't go about 24 hours without some major piece of news breaking. And right now, as Americans, we're in our own really wild election cycle. You all just had your own election in the U.K. that we're going to talk about here

in a second. But I do first want to get your thoughts. What's being said in the U.K. about what's happening here in America, specifically around Biden withdrawing from the election and now Kamala Harris. What do the British people think about Kamala Harris, Vice President Kamala Harris? Well, I think as far as the UK and I would add really Europe is concerned, Kamala Harris is an unknown entity. We don't really know anything about her at all beyond the fact that she was Joe Biden's vice president. As a pollster, I think she is quite weak as a, as a, as a, presidential candidate. I think she has very low ratings, low favorability score. I noted last night

looking at the historic data that she's one of the most unpopular vice presidents at this point in the cycle. I think her net rating is about minus 17, which compared to say, I think about plus 10 for Al Gore at the same time and minus five for Mike Pence. So she is clearly not impacting the polling. Of course, that could change. And I think there's also, particularly among the UK politicians that I speak to, I think there are two key points. One is an awareness that Donald Trump has completely consolidated his grip over the Republican Party. And with the pick of J.D. Vance, there's the view that that that movement is now aligned and ideologically coherent. But I think secondly, there is a sense that not everybody in the Democrats wants Kamala Harris.

and there's a nervousness and hesitancy around her being at the top of the ticket. And I think those two things come through loud and clear in the UK media. Are Brits concerned about the state of America right now, or do they just sort of see this as another tumultuous time in American politics, and we'll get it sorted out? No, very, very concerned. The attempted assassination of Donald Trump was seen as a symbol of a country that is very divided and polarized. there's an awareness that the rhetoric has become extreme,

not just around the former president, but also on the left of American politics. There is a view that the catastrophizing around what November might bring, the kind of talking about the end of democracy and so on and so forth. I think there is a view in Europe that much of that has gone way too far. There's also, I think, a sense that a lot of the division in American society is baked in. I think there's a view that America is sadly just in a very divided place between red and blue, and nobody seems to be able to bridge that divide.

The other interesting part about this is looking at the Trump attempted assassination of the former president and J.D. Vance's pick, I think there is also a view that the Republicans are now firmly in a Trump mold for the foreseeable future with or without. the former president that now with the J.D. Vance pick and the appointments within the Republican Party, there is no going back to the pre-Trump era. And I think that matters, particularly for the British conservatives, who I think have been struggling to find their way towards some kind of electorally appealing formula. So they're watching Trump closely because his numbers compared to theirs look pretty good. In the UK, you all just had your own election in which the Conservative Party in the UK suffered its worst ever election defeat. Walk us through what happened. And do you think

that the state of play in the U.S. had an effect on this election in the UK that took place earlier in July? I don't think the events in America impacted our election, although there was some concern about having the election later on in that it might clash with America, and that could introduce, you know, awkward optics. You know, for example, Donald Trump winning that would be rather awkward for the Labour Party and so on. So essentially what happened though is this was a story, as I set up my heritage taught, this was a punishment election

in the sense that the Conservative Party was punished by a large number of voters, different groups of voters for different reasons, but mainly because of how it had presided over the country over the last 14 years. Conservatives were especially outraged by the Conservative Party's decision to increase mass immigration, to lose control of the borders, to not improve public services,

but also to send taxation, levels of taxation to their highest since 1950s. And there was generally a view that the Conservative Party, you know, having won all of this incredible power after the Brexit referendum in 2016, didn't really know what to do with it. And a bit like Trump in the US, you know, they won over large. numbers of working class voters. They won over large numbers of voters without college degrees. They won over lots of older voters, culturally conservative voters. But unlike Trump, the British Conservative Party, the Tories, didn't really know what to do with those voters. They sort of gave them the opposite of what those voters were expecting. So really, this is the tale of two realignments in

politics. I mean, the American political realignment, which, you know, the Republicans appear to have held on to quite well. And if anything, they've expanded that realignment by making more gains among Hispanic Latino voters, African Americans, and so forth. But then the realignment in Britain, the post-Brexit realignment, which really saw the conservatives completely crash because they didn't give their own voters, really, what they wanted to see. So then what does that mean for the future of the Conservative Party in Britain? If they had power for so long and their voters were dissatisfied with how much they got done, can they regain power again? And I guess to what end? Well, historically, the power of the British Conservative Party has always been the power to renew ideologically, philosophically. If you think about this as a party of Disraeli, party of Winston Churchill, although Churchill famously moved around between different parties, the party of Margaret Thatcher, party of David Cameron, Boris Johnson. So the conservatives know how to move in response to wider events. The challenge this time around is they have a competitor in the form of Nigel Farage and a Reform Party.

a political movement that is appealing directly to conservative voters by saying, okay, we are going to reduce legal migration. We are going to stop the illegal migration invasion on the small boats in the channel. We are going to stop woke ideology. We're going to remove it from schools and public sector institutions. And we are going to cut taxes and push back the state. Now, that to me sounds like something Margaret Thatcher would have said. and I think the challenge from reform to the Conservative Party is very, very serious.

And the Conservative Party is in a very, very fragile position for that reason. So, yes, they've renewed before historically, but they've never done so in the face of a significant challenger, who, of course, is led by, which is led by Nigel Farage, a key ally of former President Donald Trump. So we may see then, do you think we may see a complete challenge? shift and almost a new version of a conservative party arise out of the UK. One theory is that the UK is basically where Canada was in 1993. When you had a reform party, which was called the Reform Party, more culturally conservative party, replace a liberal progressive conservative party and essentially realign the right.

Now Nigel Farage said openly, that's what he wants to do. basically wants to do what Donald Trump has done with the Republicans. That is going to be much more difficult for him to do because we're in a first-past-the-post system and he can't just take over the Conservative Party from the top because they won't let him in. So they won't let him become a member. So they certainly won't let him stand in the leadership election. But now he's in Parliament. He's in the House of Commons.

He's got a voice. They have somewhere around 80 to 100,000 members. They have five MPs, four million votes, about 100 second places. it's a significant vehicle and it could easily grow to become something even more significant in the future unless the Conservative Party finds its way back to those conservative voters. And the Conservative Party is preparing to pick a new leader. They're going to replace former Prime Minister Richie Sunak as their leader. Who are the contenders?

Well, it's a good question. They've yet to show their hands. But the frontrunners at the moment are Priti Patel, who was Home Secretary. under Boris Johnson, as somebody who looked after issues like immigration, she's seen as being on the right of the party. Kemi Badnock, also loosely seen as being on the right of the party, but she's supported by former heavyweights,

people like Michael Gove, for example. Sweller Brabaman, who, of course, is quite prominent in the US at the moment. She's spoken at various events recently. She is very critical of the Conservative Party's record on social and cultural issues, failing to take on the woke, failing to secure the borders. Tom Tuganhat, who is a kind of liberal, one-nation conservative,

kind of appealing to the left of the party. And there'll be one or two others beyond. But I think this is without question, the most consequential leadership election, a Conservative Party has had for a long while because whoever gets the job, you know, has to either get the party off life support, take on Nigel Farage and reform and rebuild this party

from the lowest number of seats that it's ever had. had in history or if they make the wrong decision, choose a wrong leader, you know, he or she is going to push the party into a death spiral and Nigel Farage will have more room. So, you know, this is a formidable intray for whoever gets that top job. Where is the Labour Party going to take the UK while they are in power? Why do they have this majority? Where are they going to take the UK? Well, firstly, it's the biggest labour majority that we've been. had since 1997 since Tony Blair's first majority. Having said that, it's also a Labour majority government on the lowest share of the vote for any incoming majority government since the 1880s.

It's just that the way that our system works is generated this enormous majority for labour because the conservative collapse was so great. So Labor have an enormous majority, which means they're going to implement wholesale radical change. They're going to double down on net zero in green energy. They're going to increase immigration. They're going to going to adopt a softer position with regards to our borders. They're already basically committed to giving an amnesty to 100,000 illegal migrants. They're going to give votes to 16-year-olds. They're going to reform the House of Lords. They're probably going to have to increase taxes because we don't have any money. We have low growth and an enormous amount of debt,

and that debt is very expensive. So the economy is basically in the toilet. And they're going to get us closer to the European Union, not rejoining, but there'll be closer alignment. And where I'm worried, one of the reasons I'm in Washington, is to try and say to people, look, I think the future of the UK is best served by the United Kingdom being as close to the United States as possible. I don't think the European Union is a economically vibrant, successful, durable political organization over the longer term.

We're better served by linking up with the US and other growing dynamic economies, heavy weight economies. Labor instinctively do not really share that view. They would like to see us closer to the European Union. So that will become another fault line over the next five years. So then what does this mean for the UK's relationship with the United States? With the Labor Party taking the UK down that road, how do you foresee the relationship, the US-UK relationships shifting?

Well, it's ultimately going to be shaped heavily by what happens in November. Obviously, I think, you know, were Kamala Harris, win the election of suddenly secure the nomination first and then win, which I don't think is the lightliest outcome. But were she to become president, we would then have a, you know, a center-left, left-wing United States, essentially, and a center-left-wing UK. Those movements, I suspect, would get on, but we would not be prioritizing the U.S. in terms of how the Labor government would see it. They would be ultimately working much more closely with the European Union. Now, if America goes in the other direction, which I think is the

lightliest outcome in terms of Donald Trump returning to the White House, that introduces potentially a very difficult situation for the Labour government because many Labour MPs have gone on record describing the former president in very negative terms, including our new Prime Minister, Kiyosama, and our new foreign secretary, David Lammy, and I mean very negative terms. Now, of course, politics being politics, I suspect much of that

will be pushed to one side and, you know, the negotiations, We'll start talking, but it's going to be a fraught relationship, I think. There are also massive differences on foreign policy. I mean, if you were to think where Trump 2.0 would go on issues like Ukraine, issues like Israel, Gaza, and the unfolding conflict in the Middle East, very different from a UK Labour government, which is instinctively much more supportive of Gaza, Palestine. Much more supportive of recognizing Palestine as a state would like to see us continue supporting Ukraine with no kind of end plan inside. Those differences will be substantial.

And, you know, that will become quite a talking point in both Washington and Westminster. I'm thinking about just how strategic that relationship has been for so long between the U.S. and the U.K. and that will be a fascinating dynamic if former President Donald Trump is elected to have a very conservative and especially then if if conservatives, if Republicans win the Senate here in the U.S. and hold on to the House

that dynamic of how that would play out in relationship with the U.K. might be very fascinating. I'm thinking specifically around like issues of trade and trade relationship. Do you think we would see any major shifts there? Well, the big, hope in the UK would be some kind of free trade deal with the US. I mean, that would be the priority. Barack Obama, of course, famously said during the Brexit referendum that we would be at the

back of the queue when it came to having a trade deal with the US. I think lots of people in Westminster hope that's not the case. I think talks are already underway in the back room about that, strengthening that trading relationship. I would like to see that absolutely happen and be prioritised. I think we also need to learn a lot from the US in terms of just how to run and build a strong economy. And I think we also need to think very seriously about how that new trading relationship with the US could be embedded, consolidated through other trading relationships with Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the big hope of global Britain, which was a kind

of rebranding of the UK after Brexit, was that we would be much more integrated on the world stage, not just within the European Union. And that has never really fulfilled its potential. And now I would hope under a kind of Trump administration, second Trump administration, that we would begin to see more of that and also more divergence away from the European Union and into a more competitive dynamic economy. But let's watch the space.

What would that mean for both nations, do you think, in your assessment, if that happened and we were able to move into that more dynamic space? Because I mean, we're here in the United States. We're looking at a 34. trillion dollar national debt. Of course, you mentioned the UK's economic issues. What is the strategy there? Yeah, I mean, we have a debt to GDP ratio currently of 98, 99%. I mean, we're paying an enormous amount servicing that debt. We need to find our way to a long-term growth strategy that delivers more than 0.5% GDP growth rates every year. We need a serious long-term

growth strategy with productivity increased and, you know, much growth. greater innovation and dynamism in our economy. So getting away from a sort of protectionist, overly regulated, overloaded and kind of inefficient European Union economy, which in my view is what it is, overloaded with environmental regulations, with taxation and so on, I think would be the future position of the UK. And that inevitably would get us closer to the US. From the US perspective, obviously, you know, we're a major global economy. We're a strong source of hard and soft power.

We are meeting our defense commitments. We are a reliable partner on a continent that has not always been reliable for the United States, especially in terms of defense spending and energy and also relationships with Russia. We have taken a very hawkish line at certain points. We're increasingly hawkish on China after some, I think, errors in earlier years by conservatives, a kind of misunderstanding of what China is really all about. So I think we are, we've shown ourselves to be a very, reliable ally over the last few years. And I obviously hope that will continue.

Yeah. What a critical time in history. There's a lot to talk about. A lot to talk about. Professor Goodwin, tell us how can we follow your work? How can we find your substack and keep up with what you're doing? Yeah, I have the second largest substack in the UK. So we have about 40,000 readers from 151 countries. I'm happy to say Americans are very strongly represented among those subscribers. I believe the largest states in terms of subscribers of California and New York and I think Texas might be up there as well. So they can find me at Matt Goodwin.org. That's where that's where the stack is.

And we've got lots of coverage of the U.S. race. I hold my hands up and say I'm not a complete expert on American politics, but as a poll store, I can find my way around the spreadsheets and across tabs, and I can present those and talk about those to our subscribers on a very regular basis. So I hopefully see you there. Well, thank you. It's excellent to have your perspective from across the pond. We really appreciate Professor Goodwin.

Thank you very much. much. With that, that's going to do it for today's episode. Thanks so much for joining us here on the Daily Signal podcast. Be sure to hit that subscribe button so you never miss out on new shows from the Daily Signal. And join us around 5 p.m. this afternoon for top news. These are the top headlines of the day, the big news that you don't want to miss to stay informed on what is happening in our world. You can catch it on your drive home from work, maybe while you're picking your kids up at soccer practice or while you're fixing dinner. And also, if you're you're, you're you have a minute, would you leave us a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcast, Spotify,

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