The Daily Signal - How Taiwan’s New President May Change His Country’s Tense Relationship With China

Episode Date: May 22, 2024

F-16s flew overhead, marching bands played, and singers entertained with cultural performances during Taiwan’s presidential inauguration on Monday.  The inauguration of President Lai Ching-te was ���quite the party,” Asia analyst Michael Cunningham tells “The Daily Signal Podcast,” after attending the event in Taiwan.  The new president has a challenging job in front of him as the country continues to face threats of hostility from China.  Lai’s inaugural speech was overall “probably the most direct and the hardest-line inaugural address we've seen towards China yet,” says Cunningham, who serves as a research fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center. (Heritage founded The Daily Signal in 2014.) The new president likely angered leaders in Beijing, according to Cunningham, when during the speech he said the Republic of China—Taiwan—and the People's Republic of China are “not subordinate to each other.” While Cunningham calls this statement “common sense,” it is also “not something that you say generally if you're the president of Taiwan” because China interprets this as a “two-China philosophy,” when China actually considers Taiwan a part of the mainland. Ultimately, Cunningham says Lai is expected to seek to preserve the status quo between China and Taiwan. Cunningham joins the show to discuss where the relationship between China and Taiwan stands and whether America’s relationship with Taiwan is expected to change under Lai’s presidency. Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the Daily Signal podcast for Wednesday, May 22nd. I'm Virginia Allen. Taiwan officially has a new president. Earlier this week, President Lai was inaugurated as the next and new president of Taiwan. Heritage Foundation Research Fellow in the Heritage Foundation's Asian Study Center, Michael Cunningham, was in Taiwan for that inauguration. And he joins us in just a moment from the other side of the world to explain exactly what he's. saw during that inauguration and how this new president is going to navigate the situation amidst ever-growing tensions with China. Stay tuned for that conversation after this. So what is going on with Ukraine? What is this deal with the border? How do you feel about school choice? These are the questions that come up to conservatives sitting at parties, at dinner, at family

reunions, what do you say when these questions come up? I'm Mark Geinney, the host of the podcast for you. Heritage Explains brought to you by all of your friends here at the Heritage Foundation. Through the creative use of stories, the knowledge of our super passionate experts, we bring you the most important policy issues of the day and break them down in a way that is understandable. So check out Heritage Explains wherever you get your podcasts. The Heritage Foundation, Michael Cunningham joins us now. Michael, thanks so much for being here. Thanks for having me. You, I know, are in Seoul right now, but you were in Taipei for the inauguration.

Explain a little bit what the atmosphere was like. Take us to Taipei on inauguration day. What did you see? Yeah, so it was quite the party, to be honest. We saw huge festivities, flyovers of F-16. marching band, cultural performances from Aboriginal people, rap performances, a heavy metal performance. It was, as I said, quite the party. I really highlighted the diversity of Taiwan. And of course, we had the inaugural address by the new president.

We got to see the swearing in of the new president. And I have to tell you, you know, of everyone that we see. saw at the event, the one with the biggest smile on her face was, of course, outgoing president, now former president, Tsai Yingwan, who, as you can imagine, just had a huge load taken off her back. Wow. That says a lot about the situation of where Taiwan is right now and the challenges that they face. I want to take a minute and just play a clip of President's Lai's inauguration speech. This is translated by France 24. Take a listen. I want to call on China to cease their political and military intimidation against Taiwan,

shame the global responsibility of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as well as the greater region, and ensure the world is free from the fear of war. But Michael, what did you make of President Lai speaking very directly, giving a very direct message to China in this speech of telling China, essentially stop intimidating Taiwan. Yeah. So that was actually, I think, somewhat expected. It was a little more direct than we're used to hearing.

I think overall, his speech was probably the most direct and the hardest line inaugural address we've seen towards China yet. Following the inauguration, I looked back at some of the preempt. previous addresses. And I can confirm that they didn't take quite the line that the lie took. And it wasn't necessarily because of that statement. It was more because of a statement that he put towards the end of the address, which really made Beijing angry, which as soon as we heard it, we knew it would make Beijing angry. And I understand I have a friend in Taiwan who was watching the stock market at the time. And apparently it just plunged once this statement was, was

uttered, which is he said the Republic of China, Taiwan, and the people's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other. Now, that, of course, is common sense. We know that's the case, but it's not something that you say generally, if you're the president of Taiwan, in particular in an inaugural address. Beijing interprets that. Why is that a no-no? Yeah, Beijing. And Beijing interprets that as a two China philosophy. So there's, you know, China and Taiwan are two separate entities, which is, of course, de facto the case. But for an incoming president, in particular in Lai's shoes,

where he has been associated with the pro-independence movement, which is a fringe movement in Taiwan, only a small percentage of the population, want de-jury independence. And lie is not one of them, actually, currently. But he has had to bend over backwards to show that he is not going to move towards independence. And he did, say, in his speech, you know, he highlighted preserving the status quo and not doing anything, not moving in a more radical direction. But, you know, first, I was frankly surprised to hear him say that because I thought he would sort of go more out of his way to reassure Beijing in this speech in particular, because it's really seen as setting the tone

of his presidency. So we have seen a really harsh reaction, more a rhetorical reaction currently by Beijing. But it does sort of confirm what probably would have been the case no matter what he said, which was that it's highly unlikely that we're going to see Beijing and Taipei be able to engage each other in de-escalatory dialogue. It's generally in the interest of Taiwan's government to take a relaxed enough position towards China officially that they're able to really work on the resiliency that they need and the deterrence that they need without sort of Beijing reacting to every single thing they do. But if Beijing sees him as being a separatist, as being actively

promoting a to China position, then, you know, it becomes that much harder to do some of the things that he has to do and to have some of the engagement with America that needs to be had without that then sparking some really harsh reactions by Beijing. Okay. So where does that leave president lies. He is starting off his presidency. He's starting off his leadership of Taiwan. And it sounds like he may have right from the get-go upset leadership in China, which we know leadership in China has already been upset with Taiwan, but to right away maybe get off on the wrong foot, where does that leave things? What should we expect in the coming months as this relationship between Taiwan and China play out? Yeah. And, you know, to be,

fair to him, and I have met President Lai, and I have a very high opinion of him, so I don't want to come across as that not being the case. And, you know, to be fair to him, it's highly unlikely that Beijing planned to engage in any talks with him anyway, at least any official talks. And so, you know, I don't know that he's really blown any chances through his speech or any. thing. I would also say that it's probably going to be a while before we see the kind of more extreme escalation that we saw towards the latter part of Tsai's presidency. And the reason for that is that Beijing is going to tread carefully ahead of the U.S. election. And it's going to tread carefully ahead of the U.S. if that results in a change of administration, then probably will continue treading very lightly

ahead of the inauguration next January. And so at the same time, Beijing is sort of trying to feel lie out, going to push him a little bit, but nothing too major probably, because he's trying to get a sense for how lies administration is going to respond to different things. So I do think, whereas I wouldn't call it a honeymoon that he has, he does sort of have a sort of a period to start to get used to Beijing and for Beijing to start to get used to him. And probably we won't see some of the really escalatory stuff from Beijing until sometime early next year. I could be wrong, but that's what I'm expecting. But overall, in the long term, term, we can expect the tensions to be just as high as we've experienced over the past eight

years. And that was something I could have told you before the speech. Not a surprise. Yeah, not a surprise. Okay. How do we see, or do you see America's relationship with Taiwan changing under President Lai? Yeah, that was a really positive part about his speech and really about basically everything that he said before being elected and since being elected. He is very dedicated to the relationship with the U.S. In fact, essentially every mainstream politician in Taiwan is. In particular, he has pledged to continue his predecessor's approach to diplomacy and to China. And in both of those aspects that bodes well for U.S.-Taiwan relations. Another thing I would say is, as we know, you know, it wasn't just his inauguration.

It was also the inauguration of his vice president who, until being tapped to join his ticket ahead of the election, she was the representative to the United States. Shao B. Kim, she is also very very, very, very, very. well respected across the political spectrums both in the U.S. and in Taiwan. And so if she has a significant role more than sort of the symbolic role that vice presidents usually have, but if she is given more of that portfolio, things will be even better. But regardless, Lai is very dedicated to the relationship with the U.S. and the U.S., of course, as we know, by bipartisan support for Taiwan. So that's not going to stop.

Do you think we might see some top officials meet with President Lai, some top U.S. officials, that is, meet with President Lai in the coming months? Would we even get to a place where we might see President Biden consider a meeting with President Lai? So President Biden is, this is an easy answer. No, we will not see that. And that is because the U.S. and Taiwan both would oppose some kind of that kind of a meeting. Neither side would want that just because of how angry it would make Beijing. And of course, Taiwan would have to pay for that. Taiwan would be the target of the extreme military coercion and economic sanctions that Beijing would put on them. Now, as far as other U.S. officials, absolutely, I expect we're going to see that.

I mean, we do. There have already been several congressional delegations that have met with him, and that will continue just as it was happening, just as it was happening under his predecessor, President's High. We will probably see, I mean, we have in the past during Tye's presidents who have seen some cabinet-level officials. official interaction between the U.S. and Taiwan has only increased in recent years, and the trajectory is still towards more of that kind of interaction. So we will see officials visiting the U.S.

from Taiwan and U.S. officials visiting Taiwan. No question about it. Michael, the last time that we spoke about the situation in Taiwan was just after Lai had won the election. And at that point, you said it seemed very unlikely that China would launch a full-on invasion of Taiwan, at least anytime soon. Do you still feel that way? Does it still seem unlikely that China would within the coming months launch a full invasion? Or do you think that risk has increased? Yeah. So I don't think that risk has increased. has increased at all. It's still extremely unlikely for the reasons that we talked about last time, and those would be both just the political risk for China's leadership if they lose.

Another one being the likelihood that they would lose, or even if they did manage to win, I mean, they'd have their military wiped out. This wouldn't just be a China versus Taiwan fight, And it wouldn't even just be a China versus Taiwan in the U.S. It would be the U.S. and Japan and the Philippines and probably other countries. So that does not bode well for China's leadership if they get themselves involved in this. To lose Taiwan would be a delegitimizing issue for them. And, you know, in the best way, I mean, they're under no pressure to take Taiwan. They're just under pressure to not lose their ability to keep saying, oh, Taiwan is a part of China.

The other thing I would say is I'm convinced that, you know, Beijing does not want war for those reasons and others. Taiwan does not want war. And even though Lai Qingda, he comes from sort of, sort of a more fundamentalist pro-independence faction, and that's his background. He does not have the inclination to declare independence, nor does he have the constitutional authority to do so. So that's just a non-starter. The only way I could see war breaking out would be if, really if, say, the U.S. and Taiwan established diplomatic relations, but that's not going to happen because both the U.S. and Taiwan are smart enough to know that would result in an armed response from Beijing almost certainly. So as much as we would love to have more formal relations and as

much as our informal relations are continuing to grow, we will not see that become formalized just because it would be something that would be more likely to result in war. Short of anything like that happening, the only scenario I really see for armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait continues to be, of course in the short term, continues to be accidental escalation and miscalculation on either side. Michael, what do you think that President Lai's main focus will be? What did he campaign on and what is he going to try and achieve during his presidency? What will be his legacy that he aims for?

Yeah, I mean, his main focus is going to be domestic issues, in particular domestic socioeconomic issues, sky high housing prices, underemployment is rampant. you know, these are issues. There's also energy security, energy resiliency, I guess you could say. These are the issues that every president has been grappling with for quite some time. And they're just, they're very difficult to deal with. In particular, for Lai, he is not in a very, a very solid position because he only won. He won a plurality. He won a plurality. of about 40% of the vote. And he is, he can't count on the frankly, likely scenario happening again that there will, that the opposition will still be divided in four years.

But, but, you know, he, he can't count on that. So he's going to want to convince more voters to, to, to support him next time around by making progress on these issues. It's no coincidence that, you know, that actually the majority of his inaugural address was about these domestic issues that Taiwan is facing. And that's always been the case under every president so far. And so, you know, it might be sort of an obvious answer, but it is, his main focus is definitely going to be domestic. issues in Taiwan. The Heritage Foundation's Michael Cunningham, joining us from across the world. Michael, thank you so much for your time today. Really appreciate it. No problem. Thanks for having me on.

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