The Daily Signal - INTERVIEW | Jim Carafano on What He Saw in Ukraine

Episode Date: September 21, 2022

As Russia continues its unprovoked war against Ukraine, the situation on the ground becomes more dire. Ukraine has managed to push Russian troops back from many of its cities, but the mass graves and buildings reduced to rubble are indications that the conflict is far from over. How do the Ukrainian people feel? And what do they want from us? Jim Carafano, a Heritage Foundation vice president who oversees the Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, visited Ukraine last week and he has answers to those questions. (The Daily Signal is the news outlet of The Heritage Foundation.) Carafano joins the show to share what he knows about what's going on in Ukraine.   Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey Daily Signal listeners, Doug Blair here. As one of my last conversations here at The Daily Signal, I sat down and talked with Jim Carafano. Carapano was recently in Ukraine and had the opportunity to meet with Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian president, Vladimir Zelensky. We talk about what he saw there, what the attitude is like amongst the Ukrainian people, and whether or not the Ukrainians can win this war. Our interview right after this. Conservative women. Conservative feminists. It's true. We do exist. I'm Virginia Allen, and every Thursday morning on problematic women, Lauren Evans and I sort through the news to bring you stories that are a particular interest to conservative leaning or problematic women. That is women whose views and opinions are often excluded or mocked by those on the so-called feminist left.

We talk about everything from pop culture to politics and policy. Plus, we bring you an exclusive interview with a problematic lawmaker or conservative activist. every second and fourth Tuesday of the month. Search for problematic women wherever you get your podcasts. And we are also problematic on social media. So be sure to follow us on Instagram. My guest today is Jim Carafano, vice president at the Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy

here at the Heritage Foundation. Jim, welcome to the show. Hey, it's great to be with you. Now, Jim, I understand you just got back from Ukraine where you visited with Zelenskyi and some other Ukrainian officials. officials, could you maybe tell us a little bit about that visit? Yeah, and sure, that was bizarre because, you know, I was in the military for 25 years, and in 25 years, I was never in a combat zone.

And in the past couple of months, I've now been in two combat zones. So I think it's true. It's more dangerous to be at Heritage than it is to be in the Army. Look, you know, I'll start. I say it was, so we had a research group of international researchers who were hosted actually by the Polish government. And we visited Ukraine and talked to, saw a lot. talked to number officials, but we did have an hour meeting with President Zelensky, which actually it turned out afterwards was that right when they discovered another mass grave.

And so he didn't let on, but he was actually bearing that burden as he was talking to. I found him to be very serious, incredibly well-informed, very thoughtful, strongly patriotic, and really dedicated to fighting for his country. And so I think all those things are true. So I won't talk about the specifics of the meeting because it was private and authoritative. It's true. But I've said this publicly.

I think it's very important for Ukrainians and for President Zelensky in particular is bipartisan support in the United States for Ukraine is important. And to do that, he really needs to speak to both sides. And let's be honest. President Biden was really ashamed into supporting this war, but he's supporting it, which means his party is going to support it.

But we have to explain to American conservatives why this is in the national interest, why taxpayer money is worth it, and why these are people of worthy of our service. And, you know, President, you know, he has a global image, but he needs to be serious. And to be honest, things like being on the Vogue cover and speaking to rock concerts. And I know he's trying to, you know, I think a lot of Americans don't perceive that as what they need to see from Syria. They need to see him being the serious leader that I really truly believe he is. He is not corrupt. And, you know, the other issue that is, again, people were spending, how can you prove to us our money is well spent?

Look, Ukrainians know the corruption is a problem in Ukraine. President Zelensky was elected to office to battle corruption. He is, I believe, truly committed to that. And he's also fighting a war. But I think he has an obligation to really communicate to American people that he is just as serious about dealing with corruption, making sure American tax dollars are well spent as we are, that he has a commitment to that and a commitment to good governance. Because, look, it's not just important to be good for – that's the future of his country. I mean, and we need to see more of that side of him. And I think that's fair.

Now, Jim, you did say that we need to make them point to American conservatives that this is a war worth fighting. Can you make the argument? Why should we be involved in this war? Well, I think, too, you know, actually, I think we're really brought home to some of the things I saw. So I would put three points on there. One is supporting an independent Ukraine is an America's interest, right? It's not a vital interest. We're not going to, you know, fight there like we did on D-Day.

But it is, and the reason for that is really simple. It thwarts the designs of the Russians and the Chinese. For the Russians, it's never been about Ukraine. And don't let anybody tell you any different. Ukraine was just the next big step into reabsorbing all the post-Soviet states, dictatorial control over Central Europe, NATO dissolves, the U.S. is marginalized. And who is the biggest victor in that? Who is the biggest cheerleader for that?

And it's the Chinese. The Chinese one of Europe that is, distracted, disorganized, and divided. So Ukraine thwarts their efforts, and that is in America's interest. And it's achievable, I think would be the second point, which is, look, there would not be a Ukraine today if it was not for U.S. military yet. Now, look, we could talk about what the Europeans have done. Some have done great, some have done not so great. To be honest, the Europeans have done a lot of things that's important, but the reason why we have a Ukraine today is because of U.S. military aid. And the Ukrainians are putting that to good use. They are doing the fighting and the dying

for their country, and they are using that aid. And we could talk a lot about oversight and efficiency and accountability, but the one thing I think is pretty clear is the military aid is going to the Ukrainian military, and they are using it to defend their country. I think that's indisputable. And I think the third thing actually came home to me while I was there, which was the announcement that they discovered yet another masquerade. I was in Buccia, which was probably the high watermark of the Russian advance towards Kiev. But this is another masqueray that was discovered in recently liberated territory, murder, executions, obvious torture.

And it just reminds that Putin is a global actor. Anybody that thinks that letting him loose on the world stage being the ruthless, bloodthirsty, you know, leader that he is, that that's a good idea and that somehow America wouldn't pay a price for it. That's just nuts. So I think for all those reasons, America wants a Ukraine that will succeed. And if there are things that we can do that are efficacious, that serve the American taxpayers, that serve our interests, it makes sense. That's one of the reasons why we actually complained about the last supplemental bill, which was designed to provide money for Ukraine. It wasn't that we didn't think that supporting Ukraine

was worthwhile. Our notion is where's the debate here? Where's the administration's strategy? Where's the fiscal responsibility? You're spending trillions of dollars in domestic spending, most of it that's useless and left us and it's all

deficit spending. We should be doing less of that and in fact of we should reprogram some of that, Matt, if there is useful things we should do. And we're the conversations about what we're doing on the civilian side, humanitarian aid, that that is right and efficacious and it's not fueling corruption. So it was never for us about not supporting the Ukrainian people.

We think that's just smart foreign policy from the United States. But it's not smart foreign policy to do a smart thing in a stupid way. Now, from your time in Ukraine with Zelensky, with some of these officials on the ground, is this a war that Ukraine can win? Yeah, if by win, you mean an independent Ukraine that is free and can defendants on territory, I think the answer to that is yes. And in particular, here's why, you know, Ukraine's on the offensive right now. People have probably seen that in the news.

They've taken back quite a lot of territory. Winter comes earlier there than it does in Washington, D.C. The winters are really cold. If anybody's been in the military, they know it's hard to operate in the winter. The Ukrainians have had eight years of fighting in the winter because they've been fighting the Russians since 2014. Plus, I think the Russians will have great difficulty mobilizing a lot of men in material for a major counterfeiture,

particularly in the wintertime. Recently, they've seen T-62 tanks on the battlefield with the Russians. These are like three generations ago tanks. So I think Ukraine can hold territory, and that means we're going to get through the winter. So I think we'll put Ukraine in a stronger military place. Now, you mentioned the winter.

Why is the winter so explicitly bad for the Russians? You would expect that the Russians would maybe have some experience fighting in winter conditions? Well, one is it depends on what you're doing. It's a lot harder to be on offense than defense, I think, for kind of natural reasons when you're operating in extremely cold weather and bad conditions. The other is the Russians last winter performed abysmally. One of the really telling things for me was the enormous cases of frostbite. And having been in the military and actually been operating in the field in conditions like that, frostbite is not about dry socks.

that's a leadership issue. NCOs and officers who make sure that the soldiers take care of themselves an appropriate way. So when you see a lot of frostbite cases in a military, it's not so much a failure in clothing and equipment as it is a failure in leadership. Nobody thinks the Russian army is going to get terribly better. I mean, they attacked with the cream of the crop of their military.

They plowed through that. So now they're throwing into line mercenaries, people from other country, prisoners that have been paroled out of jail, old people like my age. Yeah, I could just imagine myself, AK-47, you know, charging in Ukraine. So it's hard to believe that in terms of fighting on the ground, the Russians are going to get any better, particularly in the worst part of the year. I want to go back to something you were talking about earlier where there was just an announcement while you were there about some of these mass graves that had been discovered.

I mean, I think that a lot of these people are just rightfully, a lot of Americans are rightfully horrified by these stories coming out about Russian atrocities. What were some of the reactions that the leadership in Ukraine? And I'm sure you had the opportunity to speak with some Ukrainian people. What were their reactions to these? Well, you know, we were just leaving as this news was coming out. So we really didn't have a chance to talk to a lot of people. It's not an easy place to get to. So you fly to the Polish border.

It's a 10-hour train ride to Kiev. you're doing that with blackout curtains because nobody wants to be advertising that you're doing this stuff and so it wasn't a lot of time to spend with a lot of people like that. But here's look Ukrainians are fighting for

their country. Nobody can say well we're throwing money at these people and they're just taking our money. They are fighting and dying and there is a resilience and a courage and you know here's the irony. A huge part

of Ukraine is ethnically Russian. And most of them speak Russian, and they watch Russian soap operas. There's more of a sense of Ukrainian national identity now than there's ever been. These are people that want to fight and for their country. And to me, this gets to the biggest issue, if I could. And my concern is Ukraine could win the war and lose the peace. And what I'm in by that is they can win on the battlefield and, hold on to their country, but that if the reconstruction of Ukraine isn't done right, the needs of

the people are not going to be met, the politics won't move over, the corruption won't get fought, and you can wind up with a weak aid-dependent country that's actually more vulnerable to Russian undermining an influence than it was in the past. We don't have an awesomely great track record on nation building. My fact, nations don't build nations, nations rebuild themselves. These large international institutions, financial institutions, they actually do a pretty bad job. The big giant NGOs, they're mostly about getting money to deliver aid, not necessarily to deliver outcome. We see money trickle down to the people on the ground, not meeting basic needs and services, and so much money being thrown in a country that instead of fighting corruption, it fuels corruption. So getting the reconstruction piece right, that is so, so important.

And otherwise we'll have put good money after bad. And Ukrainians will have done all this incredible sacrifice and it'll just be wasted. And given that, what should America be doing right now? Are we continuing the pattern that we've been doing before? Are we doing something different? Are we going to look towards the future? What should America's role in this? Well, look, first of all, I think the military aid is important.

If anything, I would push more military aid faster and more aggressively. the logistics pipeline from military aid going into Ukraine is operating at about 60%. That means you could put 40% more resources through that pipeline, and the Ukrainians could absorb it and effectively use it. The sooner we get arms and ammo to the Ukrainians, whether it's Americans or somebody else, the faster the whirl in. And ironically, it's not all U.S. military aid. There are a lot of countries around the world, for example, that have Russian arms and ammo that the Ukrainians could use. countries which don't necessarily lend that to them because they don't want to annoy the Russians. Many of those countries are also our friends.

Our president should be leaning on them to kick it over. I think on the supplemental spending, we have to be more fiscally responsible. As a matter of fact, they tied the next supplemental spending to a larger package of wasteful spending. I don't see how conservatives can stand for that. I mean, we're never going to help people by bankrupting the American taxpayer. and indeed we undermine support for legitimate foreign policy when we do wasteful prolificate spending. So I'd like to see more focus in the aid package. I'd like to see a discussion about offsets and using some of the many trillions of dollars that Biden has gotten to use all for basically leftist toy projects,

science projects in the United States and repurpose some of that for legitimate foreign policy needs rather than just throw more deficit spending on the fire. and I think we need a government that's more serious about the reconstruction effort. Look, let's be honest. Right now, the recurrentice will tell anybody, anything they want to hear to just get more money because, look, half the economy vaporized overnight. I mean, they've got to pay to keep the lights on. And so they just want money, and they'll promise anybody everything. But that's not going to cut it.

We need policies that are going to fight corruption, improve governance, get to the people, empower people at the local level, build jobs back from the ground up. That's how we're going to have a stronger Ukraine. Well, Jim, as we wrap up here, my final question for you is, as you were on the ground with these people, as you were talking with them, what was the general atmosphere, what was the attitude amongst the Ukrainians? How do they feel about how this conflict is going? Well, I think there was a great amount of resilience and a great amount of determination from the highest leaders to people in the street that we talked to.

I also said there was a lot of thanks for America. I mean, the American taxpayers should know that the people of Ukraine, that they are free today because of the American taxpayer. And Ukrainians would be the first people to tell you that. There was also a lot of respect for us, I mean, for the Heritage Foundation, that, you know, we showed up. And not everybody was there. You know, we were there, right?

And they do not doubt our commitment to Ukraine. And they understand that our perspective is we have to do what's right by you, but we've got to do what's right by the American tech. They don't only respected that. They were like, gee, we wish we had more politicians in Europe that felt that way. So they're going to fight for their future. And a win for them is a win for the West. There's no question about that.

But like I said, it does no good to win a war if you lose the peace. And I think we have to keep our eye on that ball. The other thing I think which is really important and people that recognize is this. This is just too much about China is about Russia. Russia is Putin is China's stocking horse. They're angry at the Russians today because the Russians failed. They're not angry at the Russians for invading another country, murdering people and dubbing them the whole. They're angry that the Russians weren't able to finish the job.

So a blow to Russia is also a kick in the teeth to the Chinese Communist Party. And I'm all for that. I think we all are. That was Jim Carapano, Vice President at the Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy here at the Heritage Foundation. Jim, very much appreciate your time. Thank you for having me. And that'll do it for this episode of the Daily Signal podcast. Thanks so much again for listening.

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