The Daily Signal - INTERVIEW | Noah Weinrich on Biggest Issues Driving Voters to Polls

Episode Date: November 8, 2022

Concerns over inflation and the economy are driving voters to the polls.  After three rounds of polling, Heritage Action for America Communications Director Noah Weinrich says the economy and inflation are the top issues for between 30% and 50% of voters. “And even for the other voters who have another issue as their top concern, the economy is in their top three,” Weinrich says.  Abortion, border security, and crime are three other leading concerns for voters, he said.  Weinrich joins “The Daily Signal” podcast to discuss the issues dominating the midterm elections and the biggest races to watch on Election Day. Enjoy the show! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is the Daily Signal podcast for Tuesday, November 8. I'm Virginia Allen. Happy Election Day. As voters head to the polls today, Democrats and Republicans have a few similar issues on their minds. Polling data from the Heritage Action for America reveals the biggest issues driving voters to the polls today. Noah Weinrich is the communications director for Heritage Action, and he joins us on the show to discuss those issues and the biggest races to watch today. Stay tuned for our conversation after this. We get it.

With big media bias, it's hard to find accurate, honest news. That's why we've put together the Morning Bell newsletter, a compilation of the top stories and conservative commentary. To subscribe, just head to DailySignal.com slash morning bell subscription. Or visit DailySignal.com and click on the connect button at the top of the page. We are joined today by the Director of Communications for Heritage Action for America. Noah Weinrich. Noah, welcome to the show. Thank you for having me.

You all are engaged in political fights in states across the country. And while everyone has thoughts and opinions on what the most important issues are this election day, we know that you all at Heritage Action, you all have actually done polling to look at what are the issues that are driving voters to the polls today. So tell us what is on the minds of voters. What are those key issues for them? Yeah, absolutely. So we've done polling all year. We did three rounds of polling this year. We found that the issues have stayed pretty consistent. The top issue has been the economy and inflation. Every poll we've done and every other outside poll we've seen, it ranges from, you know, 30% of voters to 50%. That is their top concern. And even for the other voters who have another issue as their top concern, the economy is in their top three. So that is going to be the dominant factor. in the elections today. Other issues close behind, depending on the poll you look at is abortion or safety and security issues. So actually in a lot of polls, you know, the mainstream

media would like to say that this is only about the economy and abortion. That's really not true. A pretty small fraction of voters are concerned about abortion as their top issue. And a lot of those are conservatives. The last poll I saw 17 percent had abortion as their top issue. But a higher number, I think 18 or 19 percent, had border security and crime is their top issue. That's kind of been the sleeper issue. Until the last month or two, the corporate media was not talking at all about crime and border security, even though we know that's been a dominant theme, especially in some states like Arizona or Texas, where border security is a huge issue to them.

Or Wisconsin, where crime in public order are a huge issue. So those are going to be huge factors today. as voters headed the polls, they're not necessarily thinking about, you know, Biden talking about these abstract so-called threats to democracy. They're thinking about how am I going to afford to put food on the table? How am I going to, you know, am I going to know that my neighborhood is secure tonight? Am I going to know that our border is secure, that, you know, fentanyl is not coming across the border, that millions of human beings are being trafficked across the border? That's going to be a bigger issue to them as they head to the polls.

And when you look at that breakdown between Republicans and Democrats, let's take the issue of abortion because obviously since Rory Way was overturned, this is an issue that has become a major topic during the election on both sides. Is it largely more important for Republicans than it is for Democrats or vice versa? Yeah, according to the polls we're seeing, it's more important for Democrats and Democrat-leaning independence than Republicans. And I think that's because for Republicans, the momentum is good for them, right? After Dobbs overturned Roe v. Wade, then states were able to start, for the first time in 50 years, to start enacting real protections for unborn lives. And so in a lot of these states, you know, the Republicans are thinking, great. My state just enacted this awesome protection against abortion. So that's not their top concern, right?

Things are going well for them in that regard. things are not going well for the economy. So they're concerned about the economy. Meanwhile, a lot of Democrats are thinking, wow, for the first time in decades, our side is losing. I'm very upset about this. I'm going to go vote on this. And they may care less about,

obviously they care less about something like border security because they've been kind of conditioned to not care about it. But they're going to think about abortion even ahead of the economy. Because in their minds, well, a lot of them are not concerned about the economy because they think, well, Biden's got it. He's handling it. It's going to be okay. But they are concerned about abortion because their side is losing on that.

And so we see about a two to one split of Democrats or pro-choicers more concerned about abortion than Republicans and pro-lifers. Yeah. What about the issue of immigration? Is there a similar split there between Republicans and Democrats? A similar split, but not quite as pronounced. So there are actually a lot of Democrats who are concerned and a lot of independence. So it's not quite as polarized as the abortion issue. You get more independents who are concerned about immigration and true independence as well.

So it's a pretty similar split but not quite as polarized. I would say crime is even less polarized. A lot of people are crime and the economy. Like a surprising number of Democrats or, you know, left-leaning independents are concerned about crime and economy and the inflation because it's just so hard to deny. Like, how can you deny that you're paying more for a gallon of gas? How can you deny that your car got broken into on your street last week? That kind of thing is really breaking across ideological lines. It affects everyone.

What about the issue of education? How does that poll? Yeah. So that polls as it's something that a lot of voters are concerned about. It's not the top issue for most voters. The top issue for most voters is, again, you know, how do I put food on the table? How do I, you know, make sure that my neighborhood is secure? But for a lot of voters, a majority of voters, it's probably in there.

at top five. It's not the number one issue for many people, but it's a lot of like number three and number four. And it plays more on a local level because rightly, you know, your local elected officials and your state elected officials have a much bigger part to play in education than the federal government. Your senator should not be dictating, you know, the funding policies for your local school district. That's the school board, right? And so when you see a lot of these national polls, you'll see education not, education is not going to be one of the top issues, but that's because they're asking and determining your vote for Congress, what are your top issues? If you ask for governor or school board or local representative, that's going to look very different.

Got it. That makes sense. Now, there's some very significant races this election. Which ones are you going to be watching really closely tonight? Yeah, that's a great question. So there's a lot of races, too many to count. The Senate is going to be the most closely watched. until, you know, in the last few weeks, it's been breaking for Republicans. It had been really a toss-up before. Now it's looking likely Republican. But that margin is still up in the air. You know, it could be anywhere from 51 to 54 seats or 55 if something wild happens.

I'm going to be looking at the, I think, the four true, four or five true toss-ups, which I think all lean Republican at this point, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire. So again, the momentum is on the side of the Republicans for every one of those. I think they are all lean or likely Republican, but you never know. I mean, all of these races are pretty much within the polling margin of error. We know that the polling underestimates Republicans, but we don't know by how much. In previous races in 2016, Republicans were underestimated by three. In 2018, they were underestimated by 2.5.

In 2020, they were underestimated by five. and so how big that margin is will depend on that will determine how many seats we get. So those races are going to be important. Carrie Lake in Arizona is going to be really interesting. She has done a phenomenal job and she's really broken out more than people expected. Tiffany Smiley in Washington, she has an outside shot of breaking through in this very blue state where Patty Murray has won by double digits and every year since 1992. So that would be a huge landslide for conservatives if somehow that sentencing were flipped.

There's some house races around the country, honestly, too many to name. But there's some like Monica de la Cruz Hernandez, Cassie Garcia in Texas, Yvette Harrell in New Mexico, some of the races in New Hampshire, Nevada as well. Those are really swing districts that if they turn Republican, that's going to mean a huge wave in the house. We expect to see at least 20 seats flip in the house. But if some of those flipped, then that could be 40 or 50 seats even. Well, and there's also some interesting initiatives being voted on ballots, specifically regarding the issue of abortion. Yeah. Which among those, there's five states that have something abortion related on their ballots that they're asking the folks in the state to weigh in on.

Which ones are you watching really closely? That's a good question. I have not been following those as closely as you, unfortunately. I've been following the Michigan one, of course. The woman who was shot while canvassing for that was actually a heritage action Sentinel. She's one of our volunteers. She's an amazing woman.

So if you haven't heard the story, then she was canvassing for this, for Prop 3 to make sure that Michigan can still pass pro-life productions. And she was shot on the doorstep of somebody she was canvassing. It's a tragic story, and we're seeing more stories like that across the country. There was a Rubio supporter down in Florida that was injured while canvassing. But that's what broke that through to my attention. So I'll be watching that one very closely. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, I'm going to actually be in Michigan covering that and just sort of seeing how things unraveled today.

So stay tuned for more coverage on what happens with Michigan. But, you know, I know that Heritage Jackson, you all have been looking at, you know, how things are going to unfold and trying to get a sense of what the future holds. So let's follow a few sort of hypotheticals. Let's say that Republicans take the House and the Senate. They have a majority in both. Realistically speaking, what would they actually be able to get done given the fact that Democrats control the executive branch? Yeah, I mean, that's the million dollar question, right?

and the fact that we won't have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. So Democrats will still be able to filibuster things there. It's going to be tough. You know, you don't have the presidency, and elections do matter. We're not going to be able to get done as much as we'd like to because the executive branch is controlled by Biden and, you know, his Democratic staff. So oversight is going to be really important in both the House and the Senate, but particularly in the House, holding the Biden administration accountable, uncovering the truth about what's happening in those administrative agencies, holding hearings, using the oversight powers of subpoenas, things like that. That's going to be hugely important. I would look for a few areas of possible, you know, bipartisan compromise, you know, maybe something on big tech, oversight of, you know, social media companies.

maybe some antitrust reform for big tech companies. And then there will be must pass legislation like the NDAA or government funding where those bills have to pass one way or the other. And so the party in control will have opportunities to make reforms and tweaks to those bills that the president will actually have to sign. Like right now you're seeing since Democrats are in control, they're trying to put things like draft our daughters into the NDAA or in government funding, they're going to pass a large tranche of unaccountable Ukraine funding that, frankly, Republicans won't have the leverage to

stop. So Republicans will have the opportunity to get some legislative wins there as well, but nothing like a sweeping package that the president would have to sign off on because, frankly, he'll be able to veto that. So there are some areas where conservatives and Republicans. Willikins will have some wins. A lot of it's going to be building momentum for 2025 when, you know, I think we will have a conservative president who will actually sign off on some good legislation. Some of it will be building muscle memory, you know, getting bills either introduced or passed, but then we'll have an opportunity of the next Congress to actually advance and get signed. And what if Democrats maintain control of both House and Senate? What happens? Oh, gosh, I don't even want to think about that. You know, it'll be a lot of the same.

same that we've seen the last two years. And conservatives have done admirable job of blocking stuff, but they haven't blocked everything. You know, the Inflation Reduction Act so called, which actually increases inflation, got passed. We blocked some stuff last year. We blocked S1 and HR4, you know, their electoral power grab acts. We blocked, you know, court packing in D.C. statehood and everything like that. But it'll be a much tougher road then if Democrats maintain.

control. Give us tips on election watching tonight. I know you're going to be watching everything rolling in. Any pro tips on best ways to enjoy the election coverage tonight. Yeah. So Senate, we're probably not going to know who's going to have control over the Senate on election night, unless there is a serious Republican wave. New Hampshire, they have great election laws there. It's pretty much day of only and in person. So you're going to know. quickly that night and they're East Coast. So you're going to know quickly the results of New Hampshire. It's a small state. So you'll know that on election night. Georgia, you should know on election night. However, Georgia is fairly likely to go at a runoff in the Senate. If Herschel Walker wins

outright, if he clears 50 percent, that'll be big. So if New Hampshire and Georgia win outright, which you'll know early, then that basically means 51 seats. Or if you get later in the night, If Georgia doesn't win out right, if you get Arizona, yeah, if Arizona comes in, it may take a couple days for Arizona. We'll see, unfortunately. They should be able to count on an election night. But if Arizona has a wide lead, most of the ballots are counted, then that'll also mean 51. Nevada will probably take longer. Pennsylvania will probably take longer since, unfortunately, they have a heavily vote by mail system.

And in Pennsylvania, they don't even start counting the ballots until the morning of election day. So that could take days. And there's currently a court battle over whether or not to allow undated mail-in ballots to come in after the election. So unfortunately, it's going to take a while. Other than that, pro-tips, again, time zones are going to be big. A lot of the contentious races are out west, so it's going to be a late night. You know, Washington, Nevada, Arizona, they're going to be late. Some of these states that have a lot of mail-in ballots, it's going to take a long time.

So pro-tip, get a lot of rest the night before. or get some Red Bulls, get some coffee, or call it an early night, wake up in the next morning. Maybe you'll see some new results. Noah, thank you so much your time today. We appreciate you breaking this down for us. Yeah, absolutely. Thank you for having me. And that'll do it for today's episode.

But we have lots more election coverage coming your way today from the Daily Signal. At 5 p.m., we're going to be bringing you a special top news edition to talk about the election situation on the ground in Michigan where I'm spending the day. And at 8 p.m, the Daily Signal will be bringing you live election coverage on Getter. You can visit DailySignal.com and click on the banner at the top of the page to watch the show at 8 p.m. Eastern. And if you haven't had the chance already, be sure to check out our evening show right here in your podcast feed where we bring you the top news of the day. Also, make sure to subscribe to the Daily Signal podcast wherever you get your podcast and help us reach even more listeners by leaving us a five-star rating and review. We love hearing your feedback. All right, well, thank you all again for listening.

Have a great day. We'll be right back here with you for that special edition at 5 p.m. The Daily Signal podcast is brought to you by more than half a million members of the Heritage Foundation. Executive producers are Rob Blewey and Kate Trinko. Producers are Virginia Allen, Samantha Asheris, and Jillian Richards. Sound design by Lauren Evans, Mark Geinney, and John Pop. To learn more, please visit DailySignal.com.