The Daily Signal - MAGA Foreign Policy: The Iranian Regime | Victor Davis Hanson

Episode Date: February 25, 2025

For the first time in decades, the Iranian regime is defenseless. Will President Donald Trump seize on the moment and finally depose of the brutal theocracy before it gets “the bomb” or instead pursue another “maximum pressure” campaign, cutting the ayatollah off from the rest of the world? Victor Davis Hanson lays out these options and what role the MAGA worldview may play in the Trump administration’s decision-making on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words” “Remember that fable of our youth when the mice got together and they say, ‘The cat is picking us off one by one. We need to put a bell around his neck so we could be warned.’ And everybody said, ‘That's a great idea.’ “The next item of business among the mice assembly was, who will bell the cat? What I'm getting at is the Europeans, I think even the Chinese and Russians, don't want on their border a nuclear Iran. The Americans, the Israelis, everybody knows they should not—that theocratic regime should not get the bomb. But who bells the cat? ... “Maybe the correct stance of the incoming Trump administration is to go back to the maximum-pressure campaign of Mike Pompeo and Donald Trump and have strict sanctions on oil exports, maybe even a blockade, put the pressure on so the people then throw the theocracy out itself. “But on the other hand, people are going to argue, ‘Wait a minute, there are no Iranian air defenses. For one of the few times in history, that regime is naked. There is no Assad. There is no Hezbollah. There is no Hamas. There is no Houthis that are capable of, as surrogates, attacking the Israeli state.  “‘So, maybe you could attack Iran—just this brief window—because Israel, in a series of brilliant air responses, has destroyed its ability—Tehran's ability to defend itself.’” Don’t miss out on Victor’s latest videos by subscribing to The Daily Signal today. You’ll be notified every time a new piece of content drops: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHqkXbgqrDrDVInBMSoGQgQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk. Business. One topic that's come up throughout January and this week again is what to do about the Iranian nuclear proliferation problem or crisis. And we all know that they're on the verge of getting a bomb, and it was recently announced they could probably get a bomb within a month. The Europeans, I think even the Chinese and Russians don't want on their border a nuclear Iran. The Americans, the Israelis, everybody knows they should not, that theocratic regime should not get the bomb. But who bells the cat? And that's the question.

Hello, this is Victor Davis Hansen for The Daily Signal. One topic that's come up throughout January and this week again is what to do about the Iranian nuclear proliferation problem or crisis. And we all know that they're on the verge of getting a bomb. And it was recently announced they have enough fissionable material if they were to accelerate their processing of fissionable material, they could probably get a bomb within a month. So what do we do about? Everybody, it reminds me so much of the ESAB's fable about belling the cat. Remember that fable of our youth when the mice got together and they say the cat is picking us off one by one. We need to put a bell around his neck so we could be warned. And everybody said that's a great idea.

The next item of business among the mice assembly was who will bail the cat? What I'm getting at is the Europeans. I think even the Chinese and Russians don't want on their border a nuclear Iran. The Americans, the Israelis, everybody knows they should not. That theocratic regime should not get the bomb. But who bells the cat? And that's the question. Donald Trump comes in.

He deposed of the chief terrorist five years ago, Mr. Soleimani, he's not afraid to do it. But on the one hand, there's the MAGA agenda of America first and keep out of the Middle East and at least out of optional military engagements. And then you have to juxtapose that against the deterrent policy of Donald Trump, who took out Baghdadi, and it's no better friend, no worse enemy. And maybe to restore deterrence, he needs to send a lesson. Then there's the other binary that Iran right now is in,

economic chaos. It doesn't have enough power. That seems impossible. I think it's the fifth largest producer of oil and natural gas in the world, but it does not have enough fossil fuels to run its generation plants. And people are experiencing massive blackouts. And this comes at a time that all of its terrorist surrogates, the Houthis, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Syrians are either been completely destroyed or they're under enormous pressure or are they've been a tried it to such a degree they're not operative for the moment. So then the question is, well, if you bomb Iran when the people are getting very angry at the regime and its terrorist appendages are weakened anyway, maybe it would be unnecessary

because the Iranian people like they did in 2009 might rise up. But unlike Barack Obama, who ignored that Green Revolution, Donald Trump and the Israelis would encourage it. And so maybe the correct stance of the incoming Trump administration is to go back to the maximum pressure campaign of Mike Pompeo and Donald Trump and have strict sanctions on oil exports, maybe even a blockade, put the pressure on so the people then throw theocracy out itself. But on the other hand, people are going to argue, well, wait a minute, there are no Iranian air defenses for one of the few times in history. That regime is naked.

There is no Assad. There is no Hezbollah. There is no Hamas. There is no Houthis that are capable of as surrogates attacking the Israeli state. So maybe you could attack Iran just this brief window because Israel, in a series of brilliant air responses, has destroyed its ability. It's Tehran's ability to defend itself. So the regime is naked. And either the United States or Israel could take that out.

So that's another argument. In the case of Israel, the question is, will you ever have this opportunity again to retaliate to the 500 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles that were launched that attacked the Jewish homeland? And is that window also, that window of memory, is that also evaporating? So people were forgetting what Iran did, that it sent that many projectiles against Israel. So would Israel be able then, A, to get through the defenses, have a week of bombing that would be necessary to eliminate the threat and have the Trump administration approve it? And then finally we get to the other known-on-known. What is the actual status of the bomb? Logic dictates that Iran wouldn't lie and say we don't yet have the bomb when they did because it would have no deterrent effect.

Most people say we do have it when they don't have it, a la Saddam Hussein, things like that. But Israel can't be sure, and you have to be 99.99 sure, or you're talking about an existential fate. Bottom line, add up all of these known-on loans, and I think the wisest course is for the Trump administration to say to Israel, we will keep China out, we will keep Russia out, it's your decision, but unlike the Biden administration, we put no limitations on your response,

and we will give you the necessary wherewithal as far as munitions and intelligence to carry that mission out. If you so choose, we are working on a parallel path of embargoes, maximum pressure on Iran, but we can't guarantee that it will be successful in time. You make the decision and whatever decision you make, we, the United States, will support it. Thank you very much. This is Victor Davis-Hansson for the Daily Signal. Thank you for watching today's podcast. And for more news like that, subscribe to the Daily Signal. Maybe you can check out my own website at victorhansson.com for podcast, lectures, ultra-series behind a paywall, but more importantly, just daily columns that are accessible and free to everyone.

Thank you very much.