The Daily Signal - Political Earthquake: The Multiracial Populist Voters Reshaping the Republican Party

Starting point is 00:00:01 In this election, what I think you saw was Trump aiming his message at a new generation. Younger voters, many of whom are more diverse voters, going on podcasts, really changing up, you know, not necessarily changing his appeal and what he was talking about, but changing who he was talking to in a way that really paid off. From the stories of everyday Americans to detailed policy conversations, we are going beyond the headlines to discuss the issues and events that have and are shaping this nation. Welcome to the Daily Signal podcast, weekend edition. I'm Rob Bluey, your host today. Thank you so much for joining us. We'll be right back with today's

Starting point is 00:00:47 interview. Your government is out of control. It's doing things it has no business doing. It spends way too much money. It gets involved in way too many wars. It not only tells you what you can and can't say, it actively censors you. And the things your government should do, it can't or worse won't do it all. It can't keep your streets clean of crime and filth. It can't keep your neighborhoods safe enough for kids to play outside. It can't even prevent your country from being invaded by millions of illegal immigrants. Why is that? Because your leaders no longer represent you, they represent themselves and their friends. In my new show, The Signal Sit Down, we'll expose how the sausage really gets made in Washington, D.C., with guests who have experience

Starting point is 00:01:28 on the inside. Fingers will be pointed, names will be named. You ready? Patrick Grafini is the founding partner of Echeline Insights, an author of the book, Party of the People, Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition, remaking the GOP. And Patrick, it sure did this election, didn't it? Much more than I maybe even expected it to. Let's start there, because obviously this book came out earlier this year. We had you on the show to talk about it when it was released. in many respects, if you look at the exit polling data, Donald Trump made gains with the very groups that you wrote about in the book. What did you see happening a year ago that led you to draw some conclusions that ultimately played out?

Starting point is 00:02:18 Well, I didn't write this as a book of political prognostication or trying to predict one election cycle, but really trying to describe changes that were ongoing and happening in American society that would probably end up playing out. Maybe over decades, maybe I thought I had this one scenario. Well, geez, maybe if Republicans play their cards right, they can win the popular vote, maybe in 2036 with this multiracial populist coalition. But history has a way of happening faster sometimes. And I just think the way, I would say the way things are going in the country really created the conditions for this to actually. happen on a very accelerated timeline. So it was both, I think, Trump, I think really pivoting in some ways. I mean, he really pivoted his political appeal that, you know, he really, he was really talking

Starting point is 00:03:18 to that group of disaffected Upper Midwest voters in 2016, the group that had been hit hardest by deindustrialization, by jobs going overseas. And he really talked, I think it. in an emotional way for a lot of these workers about those issues, and he won them over. In 2020, I would say maybe not focusing that much, particularly on this group, but I think his relentless focus on clarifying the stakes, I think, particularly on a lot of these cultural issues, on immigration, and on the economy, and particularly what we had going on in 2020, was a pandemic in which particularly Hispanics, African Americans, couldn't go to work, right, as much and needed to go to work. It's not like they could safely work from home.

Starting point is 00:04:10 And so what we saw in 2020 was a reaction to the leftist overreach with the lockdowns and particularly among Hispanics, them gravitating to Donald Trump as somebody he would defend their economic interest. In this election, what I think you saw was Trump aiming to. his message at a new generation, younger voters, many of whom are more diverse voters, going on podcasts, really changing up, you know, not necessarily changing his appeal and what he was talking about, but changing who he was talking to in a way that really paid off in a really big way. But I think the issue environment, right? The issue environment was obviously very important. The issue environment was one where the administration was seen all throughout our

Starting point is 00:04:59 polling this year as failing as being a failed administration and being a failed administration, particularly on the issue of the economy and inflation, as something that particularly hit home the hardest among these voters that were moving towards the Republican Party, younger voters and more diverse voters, who really had the chance to compare and contrast to different approaches to the economy and, you know, really said, all right, we're going to go with Trump's version of the economy because we've actually seen what it looks like. And, you know, it worked better for us maybe than we even thought at the time. Well, and perhaps help because Kamala Harris was unable, despite repeated opportunities to articulate a different vision from

Starting point is 00:05:45 Joe Biden. She just simply did not do that. Before we get into those issues in more, detail, though, you've had a chance to look at the exit poll data. So among what groups did Trump make the biggest gains compared to previous years? You know, I would say it was black men, I think was the biggest group. At least one of the Expos Hispanics were huge across the board. And that's true in the precinct data that's coming out. You're seeing 20-point shifts, 30-point shifts in a lot of cases. Asian voters continue to trend right.

Starting point is 00:06:16 But you had younger voters in particular. It's not something you see in, let's see, precinct-level data, but in the exit polling data. You saw a young voter as a group of people who, in, In the, go back to 2008, they were two to one for Barack Obama. In this election, the youngest group of voters only voted for Harris by about four to five points. And those same voters who voted for Obama the first time, who are now not 1829, they're 30 to 44, they were within three points, right? So it's a 30 point shift among the same group of voters. And I think that that ties back to obviously Trump had an appeal.

Starting point is 00:07:01 I think to people who, you know, Trump had more than other Republicans before him, had an appeal to Hispanic voters to a lot of these more diverse voters who also tend to be younger. But I think this was also a referendum on an economy that was failing for young voters, specifically as it relates to housing, specifically as it relates to interest rates, making the dream of home ownership really unaffordable for younger voters and something that really hit them hardest. So I think, you know, what you're really seeing is a combination of a bunch of things, kind of forming a perfect storm. And as you just articulated, there had been times in recent history where we've seen the headlines

Starting point is 00:07:50 that the Republican Party is doomed because they have lost younger voters. Obviously, there's Trump the person who has a particular appeal. So is 2024 a phenomenon that's unique to Trump? Or can the Republican Party, as your book articulates, really maintain these gains that they've made with black men, with Hispanics, with younger voters? It'll be harder. It'll be harder for sure. I mean, this is not, I don't think we're going back to the Obama era, right, in terms.

Starting point is 00:08:20 of where some of these groups were. I think we are seeing over the long term. And these are more of the issues I kind of go into in more detail in my book. And why some of these trends are likely to be long-lasting, especially among black voters, is because I think we're just seeing a fundamental change in terms of, you know, the political, I see political engagement in some of these communities

Starting point is 00:08:47 that there was a sense, right? that, you know, this is just what we do as a group of people, as we vote for Democrats, and this is almost our identity, and this is what we need to do to maintain our group interest. And you saw that to some extent among Hispanic voters as well. That narrative is broken down. And I think it's going to be very, very difficult for the Democrats to get that back. Now, that said, I think Trump was very adept, right, at reaching some of these audiences, whether it's going to UFC matches, going on Rogan.

Starting point is 00:09:22 And in particular, right, I mean, I think he is a cultural figure who transcends politics. And so that is very difficult for any other Republican or Democrat, frankly, to recreate. But what I would say is I go back to the mess of my book. This is a long-term trend. This is not just a one-election trend. So even if you see a couple points shift back here, things kind of normalized, things go back, a little bit like the way they were before, they're not going to go all the way back

Starting point is 00:09:50 to the way they were before. And this is really, I think this coalition, I think get used to this coalition as being the shape of the conservative and Republican coalition moving forward. You've mentioned a few of the issues that have resonated, particularly with this multiracial populist coalition.

Starting point is 00:10:08 What now does Trump need to do? He will have a limited window in order to get policies across the finish line in Congress before they start to focus on their next election. So what would you prioritize if you're in his position to make sure that you're delivering on the promises you made to this group? I think that this is a group of voters that is not ideological, like in the sense of that, you know, they're not, I think ideological is the way we, as we would think.

Starting point is 00:10:33 And so I think they're in many ways conservative in their values and their instincts and orientation, and particularly especially on a lot of these cultural issues. issues. I think what Trump needs to do, I think, is restore a sense of normalcy in the country that I think they were promised in 2020 that wasn't delivered on. And a return, I think, on many of these issues, particularly in what's been going on in the schools and everything that's happened since the pandemic, a return to a sense of normalcy, both socially and economically in the country. And I think like every other group, but I think especially, this group is going to prioritize how successful, right?

Starting point is 00:11:18 I mean, how successful he is and delivering on the promise to return us to the sense of economic security that I think people felt during his first administration. So I think what the perception, right, six months from now, what's the perception going to be of how well the economy is doing compared to what it is now? I think that's going to do a lot to frankly shore up and to continue to solidify these voters. And, you know, without necessarily doing things that kind of maybe go out of his way to activate, you know, a leftist kind of resurgence or things like that if you get off track on issues.

Starting point is 00:12:01 That I think if he can really stay focused on delivering kind of the economic performance that people voted for from his first term, I think he'll be in a good place. It's interesting. You talk about that. I agree with you that voters do want to return to normalcy, and I think that you probably will see Trump's economic agenda focus on those areas. Obviously, extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was passed during his first term, things like that, which you have shared polling data that indicates that that's highly popular with voters. At the same time, some of the cabinet picks

Starting point is 00:12:38 and other personnel choices he's made since his election have really, sought to shake up Washington in the way business is done, which would be anything but normal. So how do you, do you think the voters give him that deference and ability to go and do that as long as things are good economically in their own personal lives? Well, what's normal for Washington isn't necessarily what's normal for average Americans, right? So I think when you talk about somebody who's going to get in, go in and disrupt the bureaucracy and the status quo, do I think that that's an issue where Democrats are, sorry, so the general public is thinking like that's something that affects me.

Starting point is 00:13:17 And that's just not something that voters are really thinking about. And I think a lot of these democratic attacks, right, on, well, Trump is going to go in and disrupt and put, you know, really take charge of the government, which he actually does run. Right. I mean, I just think those attacks did not connect. So I think where Trump has been disruptive in a lot of these picks, if you actually look at popularity of his cabinet picks. RFK Jr. is pretty high, right, in terms of people want to see him more involved. You know, he is among the politicians we tested.

Starting point is 00:13:58 He is consistently the most popular politician in America in terms of having maintaining a net favorable rating. And, you know, I would say even for the Doge and Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswine. Those are figures that people on balance really want to see more of in government. Yeah, no, it's certainly true. A much more ideological, diverse cabinet than I think most people would have anticipated. Okay, so there have been some polls that have come out post-election that chose Trump's approval in the 50s. One, I think, put it near 60%. Is it possible to maintain that, given the divisiveness that we always hear about in this

Starting point is 00:14:42 country and how Americans are really at each other's throats and over Thanksgiving dinner or the holidays can't even have a have a conversation as a family. Well, it's very different, right? It's very different from the first Trump transition and the first Trump administration where I think Democrats were at maximum ferocious intensity the moment Trump got elected and really furthered a narrative that he was this either illegitimate president or quasi illegitimate. And normally, what normally happens, right, is a president during his transition phase does get a window of time where he is viewed more favorably, where they have an ability to get things done and forge public consensus. Now, that doesn't always last. But, you know, I think the things that he has, I mean, I think the approach that he is signaling, first of all, I think he has a team he's much more comfortable with this time.

Starting point is 00:15:39 It's also a team that, as you mentioned, is more ideologically diverse and is ideologically diverse in ways that appeal to members of this coalition, right? I think that what he, his team he's putting together is more, let's say, more aligned with, I think, the group of voters who actually elected him than maybe the team he had around him the first time, which again is, if we remember, he did not necessarily have a huge crew he came in with. He was himself, right? I mean, you know, he kind of stood alone in many ways on these policy issues, and you had people in high cabinet positions who were not necessarily very aligned with him. Now, people can debate, right, whose approach was better. But at the end of the day, you know, what is, you know, if you're president, you have a right to pick the team that is aligned with, you know, where you want to take the country, right? And I think we'll actually see that.

Starting point is 00:16:36 And I think it could mean, you know, I think that will probably mean some pretty good things in terms of, I think his ability to sustain this level of popularity for, you know, a longer period of time. Well, and precisely to your point, I mean, there have been four elections since his first victory in 2016. So he's had a number of Republicans who have come in with a shared vision or a shared agenda for what he wants to accomplish. one of the things that I appreciate most about your work is the substack that you write, and I'll have you share with our audience in just a moment how they can follow your work. But you would dive deep into the data on particular states or geographic areas. Any particular surprises or areas that stood out to you where there were such big Republican gains or big gains for Trump that you'd want to share?

Starting point is 00:17:25 Yeah, I mean, I think pretty much everywhere you saw a more diverse areas of the country, right, all swung right. And these were places that maybe missed out on some of the gains that we saw in 2020. So the gains in 2020, I thought were significant enough that I wanted to write a book about them. Right. But, you know, they were mostly in places like the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, places like South Florida, which are obviously in states that were not that competitive, you know, and so did not ultimately make that big of a difference in 2020. And Trump ultimately fell short. But I don't think we can argue with the fact that this coalition really delivered him victory in the battleground states. I think that that is really the key here. And you look in particular at a place

Starting point is 00:18:13 like in Pennsylvania, in Allentown, Pennsylvania, Hazleton, Pennsylvania, by the way, is a place where, you know, was a place where there was a lot of growth in immigration. there was in fact like, you know, very restrictionist immigration. Now, laws passed specifically there. But what we're seeing specifically is that city has become about 50% Dominican, American. So it went from, but at the same time over the 25 years when it's gone from being 5% to 50% Hispanic, it's gone from being a tie, right? Back in 2000, I think Trump won it by 25 points.

Starting point is 00:19:02 So it's an example of a place that has grown more diverse, as it's grown more diverse, it is voting more conservative, right? I mean, that's stunning. I think when it comes to a lot of these narratives that the left had about the electorate. But in particular, in Pennsylvania in particular, Puerto Ricans, big community. all these new cycles about how this joke at the Madison Square Garden rally would backfire so badly. And it turns out all these voters swung. They could see through the noise and they swung right because that's where ultimately I think where their values are ultimately are at.

Starting point is 00:19:40 Yeah. It's amazing looking back at some of those moments on the campaign trail. Okay. Last question, I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you how the Democrats respond, at least in your opinion, because they're not just going to sit back on the sidelines. They obviously know that There's an election coming up in two years, another presidential election in four years. Where do you see them going? I think their tendency is to going to try to recreate as much as possible, the political moment that they had after the 2016 election, where at least then Democrats were very mobilized to oppose Trump and opposed everything Trump was doing. And they had a lot of success in the 20th.

Starting point is 00:20:24 2018 midterms. But I think that there is a danger, right, that they can rely on maybe if there's a short-term political backlash, maybe the administration has to make some tough decisions in its first two years. And they can think they can ride that wave. But as we've seen, that doesn't solve their long-term problem. And what are their long-term problems? Their long-term problems is that the main pillars of the Democratic base are collapsing.

Starting point is 00:20:54 sitting around them, around them, right? You're seeing Hispanic voters are now almost a 50-50 group. You're seeing black voters, the most loyal Democrats. You're seeing serious erosion that I think is only probably going to continue. And the party still wants to, even in the face of overwhelming evidence that they are losing, you know, who their core and the most loyal constituencies were, even in the face of that, pivoted to a message late in the campaign, Democratic institutions, or abortion, and sidestepping really were the most important issues, which were specifically number one, the economy, and number two, immigration. So, you know, I think they've shown kind of inability, I think, to grapple with some of those long-term challenges most recently in the election,

Starting point is 00:21:54 but even more recently than that, if you have people like Congressman Seth Moulton, who says, you know, maybe we should rethink, right, some of, you know, this issue of sports and gender in sports, right, maybe we should rethink how we are perceived on that. He's shouted down. He's called a fascist by the local chairman of the Democratic Party there. So I think they'll think, right, that they can ride kind of a traditional midterm, short-term wave. But will that actually solve the underlying problems that they have? It's going to be interesting to watch.

Starting point is 00:22:36 Patrick Grafini, again, the author of the book, Party of the People Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition, remaking the GOP. Courage our audience to pick up a copy. If you haven't already or download the audiobook, it's excellent. How else can people follow your work? Yeah, so I'm on Twitter or X at Patrick Grafini. My name and Patrickrafini.com is my newsletter.

Starting point is 00:22:59 Excellent. Well, please subscribe. Patrick's a great person to follow. He's been certainly a source of a lot of wisdom throughout the course of the last year, but also somebody that I've known for the better part of almost two decades now, it seems Patrick.

Starting point is 00:23:11 So thank you for joining the Daily Signal. Thanks, Rob. We are going to leave it there for today. Don't forget to hit that subscribe button so you never miss out on new shows from The Daily Signal. Every weekday, catch top news in 10 right here in this podcast feed. Keep up with the news that you care about in just 10 minutes every weekday at 5 p.m. And go deep with us right here every weekend for the Daily Signal's podcast interview edition. If you like what you hear on any of our shows, let us know by leaving a comment.

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The Daily Signal - Political Earthquake: The Multiracial Populist Voters Reshaping the Republican Party

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