The Daily Signal - The Biden Bust Is Being Reversed as the Trump Economy Roars Back | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D

Starting point is 00:00:00 For nearly all of Joe Biden's last year in office, the annual change in jobs among Native-born Americans was negative, meaning this group was losing ground. Annual job growth was going to foreign-born workers. Once again, Trump has course corrected. During his first year back in office, employment among Native-born Americans increased 840,000, while the number of foreign-born workers with jobs declined. If that's not America First, nothing is. Hello, this is E.J. Antony for the Daily Signal. Despite all the naysayers who predicted doom and gloom for the Trump economy, the latest round of data has vindicated the president's strategy and shows the stage is set for an American comeback. From family finances to federal finance, the damage of the Biden years is finally being reversed. Now, while it's not all doom and gloom, it's not all sunshine and rainbows either. Biden and the big spenders in Congress dug us a pretty deep hole. But, we're getting out of it. For some context here, let's roll back the clock. When the economy reopened after COVID, millions of people who were forbidden by the government from working went back to their

Starting point is 00:01:18 jobs. Now, obviously, this was simply a return to the status quo, but it was billed as job growth. Regardless, monthly job increases for the private sector peaked in the summer of 2021 and then began trending down. Not every state reopened their economy right away, unfortunately, in part because Congress was awarding federal dollars to states based on their unemployment. Making it illegal for people to work is a pretty sure fire way to increase unemployment and get more money from the feds. So that's what a lot of blue states did. But once all the state economies were reopened, the private sector added fewer and fewer jobs over time as Bidenomics ground everything to a halt with 40-year-high inflation, oppressive regulation, and volatile interest rates.

Starting point is 00:02:06 By the time Biden finally left office in January 2025, the trend in private payroll growth had crossed zero, meaning the private sector wasn't adding any jobs at all, but losing them while the government was still on a hiring spree. All those extra federal bureaucrats made the jobs numbers better, but didn't do anything for the productive real economy in the private sector. Just one year later, the Trump administration has managed to write the ship. In January, 2006, the private sector added 172,000 jobs, while government jobs declined by 42,000. Astonishingly, Donald Trump reduced the federal bureaucracy by 323,000 in just one year, more than a 10% reduction. You have to go all the way back to 1966 to find a time when there were fewer federal government employees than there are today. Think of that six decades. In addition to where

Starting point is 00:03:06 jobs are being created, Trump's policies have also impacted who are getting those jobs. For nearly all of Joe Biden's last year in office, the annual change in jobs among native-born Americans was negative, meaning this group was losing ground. Annual job growth was going to foreign-born workers. Once again, Trump has course-corrected. During his first, year back in office, employment among Native-born Americans increased 840,000, while the number of foreign-born workers with jobs declined. If that's not America First, nothing is. Last month was the best January ever for employment among Native-born Americans. And American workers are getting paid more, too. Not only that, but their pay is also going further. And that's the most important fact.

Starting point is 00:03:56 yet again this is a sharp contrast to the biden years when the average americans weekly paycheck grew substantially but still bought about four percent less by the time biden left office that was the result of prices rising so much faster than wages sure you had more money but what could that money buy runaway inflation which was ultimately caused by biden's blowout spending is what eroded the purchasing power of americans incomes turning higher wages into lower standards of living. Conversely, inflation has been much milder under Trump at just 2.4% during his first year as measured by the Consumer Price Index or CPI. Even better when outliers are removed from the CPI, the inflation level drops to the lowest level since 2021. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, as well as median CPI and trimmed mean CPI, which exclude the largest and smallest price increases or decreases, have all fallen to near five-year lows. Meanwhile, the real-time price aggregator truflation, which we've talked about in depth before, shows inflation today is even lower, now under 1%. That's not to say everything is sunshine and

Starting point is 00:05:14 rainbows, as I mentioned at the start, when it comes to consumer prices and affordability. inflation is the rate of increase in prices, not prices themselves. It took four years for Biden to create an affordability crisis, and it will take some time for Trump to dig America out of this hole. For example, while the average Americans inflation adjusted weekly paycheck shrunk about 4% under Biden, it's grown about 2% under Trump. While it's great to have the losses under Biden have been recouped in the last year, Americans still have haven't regained all their lost ground in terms of what their incomes can buy. That's why folks are still talking about an affordability crisis and why Trump is still trying to clean up Biden's mess. Even more striking than weekly earnings is housing affordability. Under Biden, the monthly mortgage payment on a median price home, not a mansion, just a median price home, doubled, rising over 100%. However, since Trump was inaugurated, it has declined 8% while incomes have risen. That's making homes more affordable, but the damage from the Biden years is still with us.

Starting point is 00:06:26 It's the same story with federal finance. The deficit for the current fiscal year to date, which is last October through January, is down 17% from the same months in the prior fiscal year, which were also Biden's last four months in office. While a deficit of almost $700 billion in just four months is far too large, Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have made remarkable progress in reducing it. That progress has been the result of cutting spending through efforts like Doge and federal workforce reductions, along with economic growth, generating more tax receipts. By expanding the tax base through faster economic growth, the economy yields more tax revenue. There's a few extra billion from customs duties, too, and that's from tariffs. But again, we're a long way to go in balancing the budget. Trump has done a lot, but now Congress needs to do the heavy lifting.

Starting point is 00:07:21 Fortunately, he's given them a roadmap on where to start cutting, and he's also got momentum on his side. In short, things are headed in the right direction, even if they aren't in a great place yet. Family and federal finances alike are both improving and would recover even faster if Congress did its job and cut more spending. That would really help clean up more of Biden's mess. This is E.J. Antony for The Daily Signal.

The Daily Signal - The Biden Bust Is Being Reversed as the Trump Economy Roars Back | E.J. Antoni, Ph.D

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