The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: Germany’s Election Results and the Marginalized Conservatives

Episode Date: February 27, 2025

Although the Elon Musk-endorsed Alternative for Deutschland garnered over 20% of the vote in the country’s recent elections, the “ultra-far-right” party will likely be blocked from joining a majority coalition in the parliament, further alienating an increasing number of concerned Germans who believe their country is no longer the “powerhouse” of Europe, argues Victor Davis Hanson on this edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words.” “But here's my point, even though they have about half of the support of all German voters, it's likely that the Alternative for Germany will not be represented. And the seats that will comprise the majority will be made up by either a socialist party or the green party, or both. “Here's my point, again, there's a populist, nationalist backlash, a counterrevolution to the craziness of Europe. And we know JD Vance has outlined that craziness: low fertility, high energy prices, bans against fracking, open borders, dishonorment, deindustrialization, etc. But the conservatives will not have a voice under their parliamentary democracy, even though they earned a voice. And that's only going to make them more polarized. … “Mr. [Friedrich] Merz said in a speech that given the trajectory of America under Donald Trump, he's distancing himself and he doesn't really consider the United States an ally anymore, at least he said Trump's America. “Think about that for a second. Now, I don't want to go through ancient history, but we fought two wars with Germany. And we defeated them both, but we also came to their rescue. I think we rescued them in World War I from kaiserism. And that allowed them to have a brief romance with democracy. And then we rescued them from Nazism. They paid a terrible price. But they did lose two wars they should have lost. And then we protected them in the Cold War. … ” For Victor’s latest thoughts, go to: https://victorhanson.com/ Don’t miss out on Victor’s latest videos by subscribing to The Daily Signal today. You’ll be notified every time a new piece of content drops: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHqkXbgqrDrDVInBMSoGQgQ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

There were elections recently in Germany, and as many people and pollsters had predicted, the conservative parties won nearly almost 50% of the vote. Even though they have about half of the support of all German voters, it's likely that the alternative for Germany will not be represented, and the seats that will comprise the majority will be made up by either a socialist party or the Green Party or both. There's a populist nationalist backlash, a counter-revolution to the craziness of Europe. But the conservatives will not have a voice under their parliamentary democracies, even though they earned a voice. And that's only going to make them more polarized.

Hello, this is Victor Davis-Hansson for the Daily Signal. There were elections recently in Germany, and as many people and pollsters had predicted, the conservative party, and there are two of them. One, nearly almost 50% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Union under Mr. Mertz will be probably the new chancellor. And then there is the alternative for Deutsche Land, the AFD. This is the more controversial conservative.

We in the United States wouldn't see them so controversial, but for European socialists, they are considered ultra-altra-right. They believe in things like the ability to buy guns are to close borders. And in the United States, that would be normative, not in Europe. But here's my point. Even though they have about half of the support of all German voters, it's likely that the alternative for Germany will not be represented.

And the seats that will comprise the majority will be made up by either a socialist party or the Green Party or both. So here's my point again. There's a populist nationalist backlash, a counter-revolution to the craziness of Europe. And we know J.D. Vance has outlined that cradias, low fertility, high energy prices, bans against fracking, open borders, disarmament, de-industrialization, etc. But the conservatives will not have a voice under their parliamentary democracy, even though they earned a voice. And that's only going to make them more polarized.

But here's what I also want to talk about. Mr. Mertz said in a speech that given the trajectory of America under Donald Trump, he's distancing himself and he doesn't really consider the United States an ally anymore. At least he said Trump's America. Think about that for a second. Now, I don't want to go through ancient history, but we fought two wars with Germany. And we defeated them both. But we also came to their rescue.

I think we rescued them in World War I from Kaiserism. And that allowed them to have a brief romance with democracy. And then we rescued them from Nazism. They paid a terrible price, but they did lose two wars they should have lost. And then we protected them in the Cold War. But here's another point. We have right now about 40 bases and over 50,000 American soldiers. in Germany. Germany spends 1.5% of GDP. People look up to it in NATO and then say,

we don't have to meet the 2% benchmark that's required of us over a decade because Germany doesn't. At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans. We've mastered made-to-measure growth and expansion advice, and we can talk your ear-off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do. Business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business. As it's disarmed, because they will not frack and they will not use nuclear energy and they are ambiguous about their coal, they were paying four times more in electricity. We've mentioned before. Their birth rate is about 1.45. They have

open borders, 16% of their population is not native-born. So my point is they're not in a strong position. And all they would have to do is look at the voices of dissent on the conservative side that are calling for cheaper energy, closed borders, freer speech, re-industrializing strong defense, and they're not. Instead, they're blaming the United States. And as I said, when you have 50,000 soldiers protecting them in 40 bases, that should speak volumes. More importantly, they don't have a source of energy that they can import, especially natural gas after the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was blown up. We don't know if Donald Trump can solve the Ukraine war quickly or not, or how quickly that pipeline can be fixed, but they're going to have to import oil from a very volatile oil and gas,

as they do oil, increasingly from the Middle East or from us, liquid natural gas terminals on our southern coast. So they're dependent on us on defense. They're dependent upon us on energy, and on trade. They run, depending how we calibrate a trade surplus, they're running. somewhere between 70 and $100 billion surplus predicated on the fact that they have 5 to 6% tariffs, we have 2% to 0. It's an asymmetrical situation. So given the fact that there has been no GDP growth in Germany and all of the other maladies that I mentioned and the fact that the bulk of foreign aid and military aid that has protected

Ukraine has come from the United States, and given the fact that the fact that, you know, the fact that fact that we have soldiers there and we allow them in a mercantile sense to run up a big surplus. Don't you think Mr. Mertz would say, yes, we have differences with the United States, but it's a strong friend, or would you expect what he did say, that we were no better or no different than Russia in their relationship to Germany? I have a piece of advice for Mr. Mertz. I'd be very careful for what you say, because there's no law that says that United States has to keep protecting you. There's no law that says the United States has to keep

subsidizing you to the tune of $80 or $90 billion a year. And there's no law that says that we have to be, as we have been for 85 years, committed to having a sizable presence in NATO and paying 16 to 17 percent of the budget. We want to do that. As J.D. Bantz said, we want you to reform. We want you to be the powerhouse of your if we want you to be a partner in the Western. But if you don't want to, we're not going to force you. We're not going to force you. It's your choice, not ours.

This is Victor Davis Hansen for The Daily Signal. Thank you for watching today's podcast. And for more news like that, subscribe to the Daily Signal. Maybe you can check out my own website at victorhanson.com for podcast, lectures, ultra-series behind a paywall. wall, but more importantly, just daily columns that are accessible and free to everyone. Thank you very much.