The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: Iran Has Only One Negotiating Chip Left: Their Survival

Starting point is 00:00:00 June 22nd, this past Saturday night, Donald Trump ordered B2 bombers equipped with these bunker busters. 14 of them were dropped on the Fodor nuclear site. Cruise missiles from submarines then hit the other two. Usually when an American president does anything in the Middle East, it doesn't work out well. Jimmy Carter failed 1980 rescue attempt. George W. Bush, after the insurgency and the surge, I don't think Barack Obama even recovered from that misadventure in 2011. Joe Biden's disastrous flight from Kabul, so it doesn't have a good pedigree.

Starting point is 00:00:34 And what follows from any air campaign is not necessarily good. What Trump did was not 1991 First Desert War where it's a preliminary to a ground invasion. And the question is, what happens now? At Desjardin, we speak business. We speak startup funding and comprehensive game plans. We've mastered made-to-measure growth and expansion advice. And we can talk your ear off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do, business.

Starting point is 00:01:14 So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business. Hello, this is Victor Davis-Hansson for the Daily Signal. June 22nd, this past Saturday night, Donald Trump ordered B2 bombers. These are the multi-billion dollar bombers based in Missouri. And seven of them apparently flew almost 15 hours one way, 6,000 miles, and each of them perhaps was equipped with two of these terrible bunker busters, 30,000 pounds. Fourteen of them were dropped on the Fodor nuclear nuclear.

Starting point is 00:02:00 site and cruise missiles from submarines then hit the other two as well. And the question is, what happens now? Well, we have to get some context. Usually when an American president does anything in the Middle East, it doesn't work out well for a variety of reasons. Jimmy Carter's presidency was destroyed by his failed 1980 April rescue attempt. Joe Biden was about 50% approval until the disastrous flight from Kabul. George W. Bush, when Saddam Statue fell in spring 2003, had about a 55% approval rating. But after the insurgency and the surge and the insurgency, he left office with historic low polls. I don't think Barack Obama even recovered from that misadventure in 2011, where he, under the influence of Samantha Power, Susan Rice,

Starting point is 00:03:00 Ben Rhodes and Hillary Clinton bombed Libya. And that went on, off and on for five years. So it doesn't have a good pedigree. And what follows from any error campaign is not necessarily good. We took out Milosevic, mostly by error. That tended to work. There was something better. I think that we took out Libya, something worse followed. There was chaos. We took out Saddam, maybe after years and years of turmoil and blood. blood and maybe something's better in Iraq. But the point is when you take out a leader or you bomb, it's not easy for the people on the receiving end to sympathize with you or to rise up against the dictator. So what's going to happen? Well, we've got to remember that this was not, what Trump did, was not 1991 First Desert War where it's a preliminary to a ground invasion. It was not 2003 preliminary to a ground invasion. It was not 2011 bombing Libya for regime change. There was a specific task, and that was to take out what remained of the nuclear acquisition program in Iran. And apparently, it did that in spectacular fashion. So what is going to be the reaction to all of this?

Starting point is 00:04:20 everybody says, well, there'll be regi... I don't see the people rising up, but a green revolution reducts. But what might happen is that the military should be feeling very uneasy. The top 20 or 25 officers were taken out by Israel. They know there's a list. The subordinate officers, the next tier, must know their name is on it. They must know the people are angry that over 50 years nearly, they spent a trillion dollars subsidizing the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Assad dynasty.

Starting point is 00:04:57 And for what? It's all up in smoke. And then they probably lost another trillion dollars over 50 years through sanctions and oil embargoes. For what? It's up in smoke. And so people in the military must know that the public will be pointing their fingers at them as well as the They must know that any association with the theocracy got their superiors killed, and it'll be interesting to see what the military's attitude is if they were further humiliated. Will Russia and China do anything? I doubt it. I'll talk about that in a subsequent episode.

Starting point is 00:05:37 So where are we right now? Right now, the ball is in the court of Iran. Trump has said to them, you can come back and negotiate. But what would they negotiate over? Their one card was that we have the specter of a nuclear bomb So you better come to us and talk. They don't have that anymore at least not for this foreseeable future The only negotiable item is whether they survive or not and I don't think they're gonna want to negotiate that And so what what are they going to do? It's probably going to descend into something like the Houthis red sea

Starting point is 00:06:15 Western Israel, tit for tat, tit for tat, until finally they get exhausted. And finally, what is the stature of Israel and Trump in the aftermath? Well, Israel has done the unbelievable. If we had this conversation on October 8th of 2003, we would have said the very idea that they're going to take on the formidable Hezbollah legions, that they're going to destroy, Hamas, that they're going to neutralize some of the Houthis, that they're going to cause the Assad dynasty to flee, that Russia is going to be out of the Middle East, that Iran is going to be defenseless. No one want to believe it. Their only problem, Israel's will be overconfidence.

Starting point is 00:06:59 After the six-day war, the Yom Kippur surprise happened. After their success, since then, we had October 7th to the day 50 years later. I don't think they're going to get overconfident anymore. As far as the United States, they have restored the deterrence that was lost by Joe Biden in a variety of ways, but most spectacularly in Afghanistan. So it's a very tense situation. No one can predict what's going to follow. But for right now, things are much better now after Saturday night than they were before. Thank you very much. This is Victor Davis Hansen for the Daily Signal. Thank you for tuning in. the Daily Signal. Please like, share, and subscribe to be notified for more content like this.

Starting point is 00:07:46 You can also check out my own website at victorhansen.com and subscribe for exclusive features in addition.

The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: Iran Has Only One Negotiating Chip Left: Their Survival

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