The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: The Optimistic, the Realistic, and the Pessimistic Scenarios for Iran 

Episode Date: June 20, 2025

With the Israel-Iran war stretching into its second week, commentators from all sides of the political arena have been delivering their optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic opinions on the conflict.  Here are the facts:  The war is going in Israel's favor. There’s a 50-50 chance of regime change, but only a 25% chance the new leaders will be better than Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  The Trump administration might have to intervene but is holding back because it thinks Israel will find a creative way to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities on its own, surmises Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words:”    👉Don’t miss out on Victor’s latest videos by subscribing to The Daily Signal today. You’ll be notified every time a new piece of content drops: https://www.youtube.com/dailysignal?sub_confirmation=1  👉If you can’t get enough of Victor Davis Hanson from The Daily Signal, subscribe to his official YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@victordavishanson7273  👉He’s also the host of “The Victor Davis Hanson Show,” available wherever you prefer to watch or listen. Links to the show and exclusive content are available on his website: https://victorhanson.com  The Daily Signal cannot continue to tell stories, like this one, without the support of our viewers: https://secured.dailysignal.com/     00:00 Introduction to the Iranian-Israeli Conflict 00:19 Optimistic Scenario 01:32 Pessimistic Scenario 04:57 Realistic Scenario 07:59 Conclusion and Final Thoughts   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Get the yes you've been waiting for at Capital One.ca.ca. slash yes. Terms and conditions apply. We're in the midst of about the seventh to eighth day of this Iranian-Israeli conflict and we're getting all sorts of information. It's not disinformation or misinformation, it's just speculation because we don't really have enough information coming out of around to make a firm consensus, a solid consensus of what's actually going on. Let's go through the most optimistic scenario very quickly. There are people who are saying, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's going great. They have taken out a whole generation of nuclear. physicist. Mr. Kameney is all by himself under assault. He may be killed and that would create a

revolution. The Iranian people may come out of the shadows and say, we're tired of them. A new government would be better and they, on their own initiative, would take it out. That's an optimistic appraisal. Here's a realistic appraisal. and comprehensive game plans. We've mastered made-to-measure growth and expansion advice, and we can talk your ear-off about transferring your business when the time comes. Because at Desjardin business, we speak the same language you do, business. So join the more than 400,000 Canadian entrepreneurs who already count on us,

and contact Desjardin today. We'd love to talk, business. Hello, this is Victor Davis-Hansson for the Daily Signal. We're in the midst of about the seventh to eighth day of this Iranian-Israeli conflict, and we're getting all sorts of information. It's not disinformation or misinformation. It's just speculation because we don't really have enough information coming out of Iran or out of the White House or out of Israel to make a firm consensus,

a solid consensus of what's actually going on. In that lacuna, maybe we should just very quickly look at a pessimistic and optimistic and a realistic appraisal. Here's what the pessimists are saying. These are not my views. I'm trying to give an accurate portrayal of what they're saying. The pessimists, both here in the United States and abroad, are of two types. There are the MAGA base, and they are saying this breaks Trump's promise not to intervene in wars that are optional. This is a forever war.

If we hit the Iranians, that will not be the end of it. that will be the beginning. They will send cadres all around the world to attack our diplomats, our soldiers. They may try to kill Trump again, and this is a violation of his campaign oath. Realistically, some military analysts say, well, wait a minute, even if you take out some of the more prominent nuclear facilities doesn't mean they can't be rebuilt very quickly. So then the question hinges on, are you going to take out the regime? There's no. not a lot of evidence in the past that air strikes will take out a regime. We tried it with Saddam Hussein, as you remember in 2003, and it did not work. We tried it with Gaddafi during the Reagan administration.

It did not work. We couldn't quite get rid of Milosevic. That was a combined air in the Balkans, and we had troops on the ground. So it doesn't seem that even if the Israelis or us took out the supreme leader, doesn't necessarily mean that the government would collapse or that whatever replaced it would be much different in this pessimistic appraisal. And the pessimist then would say, why not negotiate and bring back the monitors and you would have a breathing space of three to four years given the rubble of the current nuclear infrastructure, where there would be heightened the tension and we could negotiate ourselves out of this and stop this war that has ripples. throughout the Middle East and involved superpower, possible intrusion from China, Russia. Let's go through the most optimistic scenario very quickly. There are people who are saying, no, no, no, no, no, no.

It's going great. Israel's taken out 50% of the mobile launchers. If you look at the number of missiles that are reaching Israel each day, they are diminishing, and Israel's ability, therefore, to knock out these vestigial attacks will increase. And they have wiped out all of the command and control of people in their 50s and 60s in the military. They have taken out a whole generation of nuclear physicists. Mr. Khameney is all by himself, and now that he's hit an Israeli hospital, he can be taken out. And the Iranian people may come up and decide, come out of the shadows and say, we're tired of them,

especially because most of these people that have tormented and directed the torture and the oppression and the destruction of, Our daily lives are dead. And now Mr. Kamene is under assault. He may be killed, and that would create a revolution. And if you have a revolution, even if you did not hit all of the sites that were being necessary to ensure the end forever of the nuclear program of Iran, a new government would be better, and they, on their own initiative, would take it out. That's an optimistic appraisal. Here's a realistic appraisal that Donald Trump is going to wait for at least a week,

and he's going to see if the Israelis can come up on their own with a formula in lieu of a bunker buster to diminish or actually end all of these nuclear infrastructures viabilities. And what do I mean by that? Send commandos on the ground. Take F-35s with small bunker buster just again and again. every day send them through the same blast hole. Or maybe get a C-130 and Jerry rig it up to get a, I don't know, a 30,000 pound bunker buster. You wouldn't be at 50,000 feet. It might not have the momentum. But if you came in at 30,000 and you had air supremacy, maybe you could drop two or three

of them in four or five of them with a C-130 and the United States would not be involved. And then more importantly, Israel is achieving complete supremacy of the air. And by that, I mean, not just the ability to go into Iranian airspace, but more importantly, to diminish both the number and the effectiveness of Iranian missiles that are landing in Israel. As far as the MAGA base, the fact that Donald Trump said that he would take up to two weeks to make that decision and that he's talked about. people in the MAGA base, and he's assured them there's not going to be a lot of boots on the ground. There's not going to be a long American presence. If he intervened, it would be a one or two-shot deal.

I think he's pacified most of the criticism because the MAGA base isn't going to say, my gosh, you sinned against us. We're going to look at whom. There's nobody else there. There's only Donald Trump. There's no Republican alternative to him. And so I think he's pretty safe there. And finally, is Russia and China going to come in?

I don't think so. Russia looks at this and it starts to bully. It starts to say this is our former patron that we should protect it. But Russia's got its hands full in Ukraine. It's lost over a million wounded, dead, and lost. It is in a wartime mode against Ukraine. And more importantly, when they look at the Middle East and they see all this turmoil and oil price is creeping up, they think it's wonderful.

How about China? China, for just the opposite reasons, is not going to intervene. It looks at this and says, oh, my gosh, we used to get 70 to 80 percent of the oil from Iran. 50 percent of all the Middle East oil goes to us. We don't want any turmoil. Please, just cool it. Stop it. It's not in our interest to encourage this conflict to continue.

And more importantly, China is in a trade war with us. And the last thing it wants is to get on the wrong side of a still military superior United States. Sum it up, the war seems like it's going well for Israel and their point of view. There's a 50-50 chance. There might be a regime change. There's probably a 25% chance if there were. It would be something much, much better. The United States may have to intervene, but it's holding back because it's still.

thinks that the Israelis as brilliant as they are will come up with some sort of new solution to destroy these underground facilities. That is the realistic appraisal and it's somewhere in between, as I said, the pessimistic and the optimistic outlook that I reviewed. Thank you very much. This is Victor Davis Hansen for the Daily Signal. Thank you for tuning in to the Daily Signal. Please like, share, and subscribe to be notified for more content like this. You can also check out my own website at victorhansen.com and subscribe for exclusive features in addition.