The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: The Trump-Iran Deal, Explained

Episode Date: May 5, 2025

President Donald Trump is right to believe that Iran is in a historically vulnerable position right now.    The Assad regime is kaput. Hezbollah’s effectiveness has been dramatically reduced since Oct. 7. Hama is living underground among the rubble of Gaza.    However, even with a maximum pressure campaign, oil embargoes, domestic instability, two things will never change:    You can’t trust a word that comes out of the Iranian regime’s mouth, and their legitimacy hinges on acquiring nuclear weapons, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words:” “The pressure is all on Iran. Militarily. Diplomatically. Economically. Socially. Culturally. What do I mean by that? Culturally, there is about 30% to 40% of the country are non-Farsi Persian speakers. And they're very restive, angry. Power outages. The regime is unpopular. It's diverted billions of dollars to these terrorist appendages that now didn't pay off, that they're defunct.    “And so, Donald Trump thinks that he, with this maximum pressure, putting this crushing oil embargo—which by the way, Joe Biden lifted—that he can bring them to negotiations one last time.   “Personally, I don't think he can. Nothing that that regime has ever said is accurate. Nobody in the MAGA movement wants an optional war in the Middle East. But they will have nuclear weapons, perhaps in a year. So, what is the likely scenario?”   👉Don’t miss out on Victor’s latest videos by subscribing to The Daily Signal today. You’ll be notified every time a new piece of content drops: https://youtube.com/dailysignal?sub_confirmation=1…     👉If you can’t get enough of Victor Davis Hanson from The Daily Signal, subscribe to his official YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/victordavishanson7273…     👉He’s also the host of “The Victor Davis Hanson Show,” available wherever you prefer to watch or listen. Links to the show and exclusive content are available on his website: https://victorhanson.com    The Daily Signal cannot continue to tell stories, like this one, without the support of our viewers: https://secured.dailysignal.com/  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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We'd love to talk. Business. We're right in the middle of negotiations with Iran. Donald Trump feels that they are historically vulnerable. The Assad regime is gone. Kaput, banished. Hezbollah has been reduced dramatically in its effectiveness. Hamas is, I don't know what you'd call Hamas.

It's living underground among the rubble of Gaza. The pressure is all on Iran, militarily, diplomatically, economically. Donald Trump thinks that he, with this maximum pressure, putting this crushing oil embargo, which by the way Joe Biden lifted, that he can bring them to negotiations. One last time. Personally, I don't think it can. Nothing that that regime has ever said is accurate. So what is the likely scenario? Hello, this is Victor Davis Hansen for the Daily Signal. Just recently, the Houthis, that is the terrorist organization that controls so half of Yemen,

and has been hit hard by the United States for its interruption of maritime commerce in the Red Sea and its serial attacks on Israel has been, I guess you would say, neutered. It's port facilities, its airport, a lot of its missile depots, its command and control have all been neutralized. But yet here they are with a vestigial force. They just sent a missile not just into Israel, but into Israel's international bin-concernation. In the Hungarian airport and almost hit one of the terminals. Didn't kill anybody, but it made a huge crater right on the periphery of the airport grounds. And for some reason, it was not intercepted by Israel's tripartite missile defense system.

Let me add another incident. Just recently, almost at the same time, four more terrorists were arrested in the United Kingdom for organizing Iranian-inspired terror against... citizens of Britain. And of course, we remember that Iran was involved in an effort to assassinate Donald Trump. What am I getting at is we're right in the middle of negotiations with Iran. Donald Trump feels that they are historically vulnerable. The Assad regime, their lifeline to the Arab world is gone. Caput, vanished. They can't use the Damascus airport to airlift weapons. for Hezbollah. Hezbollah has been reduced dramatically in its effectiveness.

Hamas is, I don't know what you'd call Hamas, it's living underground among the rubble of Gaza. And then, of course, the Houthis, as I mentioned, have been attacked. Israel has demonstrated that it can penetrate at will the supposedly formidable air defenses of Iran. The United States, in addition, is building up its strategic bombing force, Diego Garcia, and areas that can reach Iran with the capability of dropping these 20 to 30,000 pound bunker busters. We have two carriers that will soon be assembled near there. What am I getting at again? The pressure is all on Iran, militarily, diplomatically, economically, economically. socially, culturally. What do I mean by that? Culturally, there is about 30 to 40% of the country

are non-Farsi Persian speakers, and they're very restive, angry, power outages. The regime is unpopular. It's diverted billions of dollars to these terrorist appendages that now didn't pay off. They're defunct. And so Donald Trump thinks that he, with this maximum pressure, putting this crushing oil embargo, which, by the way, Joe Biden lifted, that he can bring them to negotiations. One last time. Personally, I don't think it can. Nothing that that regime has ever said is accurate. Nobody in the MAGA movement wants an optional war in the Middle East, but they will have nuclear weapons perhaps in a year. So what is the likely scenario? The likely scenario is they will lose face if they negotiate away their nuclear weapons. That is the only lever they have over

Western powers now that their terrorist children are all gone. So I don't think they're going to make a deal. They're going to delay, delay, lie, lie, lie, use the Houthis, and they are playing with fire. Because once Donald Trump gives them an opportunity for a peaceful way out of their dilemma, that is, they can negotiate an end to their nuclear program. They don't need nuclear power. They have the fourth largest fossil fuel reserves in the world. They have enough energy for themselves and for export for endless amount of time. And yet they still are working on this nuclear project, not for peaceful energy generation,

but to have a nuclear deterrent. And so what we should look for in the next few months is that an exasper, Trump administration will finally throw up its hand and said, you can't deal with these people, but they're not going to get a nuclear weapon. At that point, one of two things will happen. I should say one of three things. Israel will hit back because of the Houthis attack on its airport, and that could come sooner or later, or the United States will intervene. I don't think it'll intervene on its own, or there will be a joint Israeli-American operation. But by the end of the I don't think Iran will have a nuclear return.

And then we're going to be watching a mystery unfold. If it should be hit and if it should lose its nuclear potential, what will be the reaction of the Iranian people? Will they be angry that their national sovereignty has been attacked? Or will they be delighted that this 50-year hated regime is now gone and they don't have to spend money on these Arab terrorist groups that have brought them no profit. That'll be something to see, and I think we'll see it at the end of the year. Thank you very much.

It's Victor Davis-Hansson for The Daily Signal. Thank you for tuning in to The Daily Signal. Please like, share, and subscribe to be notified for more content like this. You can also check out my own website at victorhansan.com and subscribe for exclusive. exclusive features in addition.