The Daily Signal - Victor Davis Hanson: Trump Plans to Use the Midterms Against Iran

Episode Date: September 14, 2026

Iran mistakenly thinks the November midterms are President Trump's weakness. But Trump plans to use this thinking and the midterms against the Iranian regime. If Trump can end the conflict by his midterm deadline and truly accomplish his objectives, there’s a very good chance it could boost Republicans’ outcome in the November elections. "If you look at the entire situation, the midterms are actually in the interest of Donald Trump and the Iranian dissidents. Donald Trump then has a deadline to which he can bring this thing to a close. He's got seven weeks, and I think that he will be encouraging internal revolt."  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the Daily Signal podcast, where we provide intelligence for the intelligent. Now, without further ado, here's today's take. The traditional view among Americans is that the Iran war, I think they feel was a mistake, but is that general consensus accurate? The midterms are actually in the interest of Donald Trump and the Iranian dissidents. Far from making him let up, or far from him worried that the Democrats will cut off funding after the midterms, he feels that this midterm coming up, this deadline, will accelerate his efforts to get rid of that regime. And I think now there's a good chance

that that could happen. Hello, this is Victor Davis-Henson for the Daily Signal. The traditional view among Americans is that the Iran War, I think they feel, was a mistake. Some of the supporters of Iran, I have been critical. I thought we should have continued the kinetic action longer than the initial 38 days and adopted something similar to Scott Besant's Anaconda squeeze earlier. But that happens in all war. But is that general consensus that it was either a political or a military mistake or both accurate?

Well, there's a lot of things going on right now. First of all, why would the Iranian government suddenly say we are complaining that you hit a civilian target? They didn't really distinguish which. But this is a government that sent hundreds, thousands of drones and missiles into Israel for the express purpose of hitting civilian targets. That's what they do. They always hit civilian targets. So why would they think the world would be sympathetic to this complaint if it were true that the United States finally is hitting dual-use targets? Dual-use means they can be used for either civilian or military purposes, a bridge, a power grid, an airport, TV studio, etc.

So that shows you that there is an element of desperation on the part of the Iranians for them, of all people, say it's not fair that you are hitting civilian targets. Second of all, they said, this is not fair that you don't meet us in battle. If you were really strong, you would meet us in battle. Translated, that means, well, we really liked it when you were in Iraq, and we could give shaped charges to the Bathist and then later the radical Islamists to kill you Americans. We really liked it when you fought our type of war in the streets of Fallujah. But you're not fighting our type of war.

You're fighting an air war where your superior technology and firepower is killing us. This is not fair. So again, a second symptom that they seem to be very angry. How about a third one? Donald Trump said, and he says this a lot, but he said that they have never been calling for talks more eagerly, more eagerly. They're desperate for talks, he says. What is going on?

We have some other indications. There are indications coming out of Israel and coming out of our own government that finally, finally, our intelligence agencies have ignored what the Turks have been telling. Please, please, please, do not arm the Kurds. Do not do it. We forbid that.

But maybe Turkey's rivalry with Iran is greater than their fear of Iranian Kurds. I don't know, but these rumors are increasing and increasing, and they dovetail with a report that in September, early September, the Iranian Kurds are having a national day of strike and protest in the street. Who can knows what that'll happen in a situation as dire as what's going on in Iran for millions of people to go on strike and get out into the streets, Kurdish or not. Another indication is that Iran now is trying desperately to open up another front. They have failed with Hamas. Hamas is basically inert. The Israelis every single day continue to kill Hamas leadership. Hezbollah is anemic. The Israelis

have decimated their leadership and the Lebanese government is getting more. more confident that with Western help, they can rid themselves of Hezbollah. The only wild card is the Houthis in Yemen, and they now are threatening to close down the Red Sea, and they are supposedly getting help from the Iranian. That can be stopped very easily. You can stop all air flights to Yemen from Iran if they even continue. So they have a finite supply. But what I'm getting at is all of a sudden, seven weeks before the midterms, things are heating up in Iran.

And that's a result that they cannot buy any material goods, any imported goods. They cannot sell any oil. They are losing $500 million a day in economic activity. They cannot be resupplied easily, only by perhaps a year. Chinese and Russians through a train or something, and those bridges have been hit. They rely on Chinese satellite help, but the United States will be addressing that very soon. And so they thought that because the midterms are coming up, and Donald Trump wants to get the price of gas down, that he would negotiate a sweetheart deal to let them escape saving face and with much of their government intact.

That's not going to happen. There's no chance that's going to happen. Instead, what do the midterms tell us about the pulse of the Iranian war from all the dimensions? Well, the Iranians have interpreted wrongly. They believe that as the midterms get closer and closer and the war becomes more unpopular because of the price of gas, and as democratic legislators get more emboldened and declare the war lost, and some of our hard-left socialist, Islamists, public intellectuals, people in Congress, people in the bureaucracy, swear that Iran might be sympathetic, a sympathetic victim of an overweening United States.

They feel that the midterms are in Iran's favor, that one of two things will happen. In panic that he might lose the midterms, Donald Trump suddenly will give Iran concessions, concessions and try to get the straight open completely on Iran's side and get the price of oil. That's not going to happen. Iran then thinks that Donald Trump will lose the midterms. And historically, he may get the average of 22 seats he would lose, so he would end up with a 13- or 14-seat Democratic majority in either a deadlocked or a one- or two-seat disadvantage in the Senate. I don't think that's going to happen, but it could.

But what would that do? Do you think the Democrats would have enough strength to cut off all military funding for the Iran war at the moment when we're making enormous progress? No, that's not going to happen. The Iranians are sorely mistaken. If the midterms have any effect whatsoever, they might result in the opposite, rather than Donald Trump thinking, that he wants to be quiet and he wants to allow negotiations to resume, or he's fearful of losing the midterms. It might be that he feels that for the first time,

he will allow the CIA to arm the Kurds. It might feel that there are people working with the Iranian people who might want to go out in the street before the midterms because they feel this is the best time possible. If the theocracy is very worried and Donald Trump is very pro-dissident and everybody is saying the Democrats are going to win, maybe the people say if they get elected, we don't have friends in Washington. We do have a friend now in the Congress and the White House. So let's go bring the revolt, the dissension to a head.

And finally, if you look at the entire situation, the midterms are actually in the interest of Donald Trump and the Iranian dissidents. Donald Trump then has a deadline to which he can bring this thing to a close. He's got seven weeks, and I think that he will be encouraging internal revolt. He will be encouraging intra-tribal revolt under the Kurds, and he will. be upping the sanctions and the squeezing and the blockade and the embargoes. And as we get closer and closer to the midterms, Iran is going to be in dire straits. In other words, far from making him let up or far from him worried that the Democrats will cut off funding after the midterms,

he feels that this midterm coming up, this deadline, will accelerate his efforts to the efforts to get rid of that regime. And I think now there's a good chance that that could happen. Final observation. Everything we've talked about the midterms, the redistricting in red states, the Supreme Court racial gerrymandering, the radicalism of the Democratic Socialist candidates, all of the historical fact that an end party loses seats in the Congress in a midter. That's all off the table if there is a widespread revolt among the people of Iran. No one's expecting it. It would be historical.

It would change the entire complexion of the Middle East. It would be equivalent to the Berlin Wall. And it would give Donald Trump the greatest foreign policy coup of the last 50 years. Thank you very much. This is Victor Davis-Hanson for The Daily Signal. Thank you for tuning in to the Daily Signal. Please like, share, and subscribe to be notified for more content like this. You can also check out my own website at victorhansan.com

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